THURSDAY NOV 12 graded picks
Went 2-2 on the day
7:00 PM ET 2 games
Thu Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ET
BACK-TO-BACK · Toronto
Toronto112
Philadelphia123
FINAL · we projected 112 – 116Projected total 228
SPREADToronto +7.559%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 223.557%WIN
Win chance · Philadelphia favored
OUR PICKToronto +7.5SPREADLOSS
59%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Philadelphia is without LeBron James; Toronto played the night before and is without Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Philadelphia and Toronto are closely matched on paper
- Philadelphia gets home court
- Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back
OutToronto: Scottie Barnes (F), Kawhi Leonard (F), Nate Bittle (C); Philadelphia: Joel Embiid (C), Dominick Barlow (F), Adem Bona (C), Ariel Hukporti (C)
OfficialsRay Acosta, Marat Kogut, Tyler Ricks
Ref noteKogut quick with technicals: 1.01 a game vs 0.81 league (288 in 286 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Immanuel QuickleyOver 0.5 steals61%WIN
- Joel EmbiidOver 0.5 threes made61%LOSS
- RJ BarrettUnder 0.5 blocks61%WIN
2 more props
- Jaylen BrownOver 0.5 steals60%WIN
- Collin Murray-BoylesUnder 0.5 threes made60%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Toronto is without Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard
- Philadelphia is without LeBron James
- Recent games: Toronto 2-3, Philadelphia 3-2 over their last five
Official profiles: Ray Acosta, Marat Kogut, Tyler Ricks
Ray AcostaOfficial · 336 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Acosta | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.1 | 44.0 | 60 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.9 | 20.0 | 44 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.7 | 45.0 | 47 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.18 | 3.23 | 40 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.82 | 0.81 | 38 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.44 | 1.44 | 44 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 31 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.50 | 1.43 | 25 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.5% (165/333)Home covered 49.1% (163/332)Favorite covered 43.4% (144/332)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Marat KogutOfficial · 286 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: quick with technicals.
- Quick with technicals: 1.01 a game vs 0.81 league (288 in 286 games).
| Measure | Kogut | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 45.2 | 44.0 | 8 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.1 | 20.0 | 31 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 46.1 | 45.0 | 10 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.51 | 3.23 | 8 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 1.01 | 0.81 | 3 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.54 | 1.44 | 21 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 19 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.47 | 1.43 | 29 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.3% (140/284)Home covered 47.2% (134/284)Favorite covered 50.0% (142/284)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Tyler RicksOfficial · 89 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Only 89 games on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Ricks | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 42.7 | 44.0 | |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.3 | 20.0 | |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 43.5 | 45.0 | |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.88 | 3.23 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.88 | 0.81 | |
| Traveling per game | 1.09 | 1.44 | |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.42 | 1.33 | |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.52 | 1.43 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.7% (46/89)Home covered 47.2% (42/89)Favorite covered 47.2% (42/89)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Thu Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ET
BACK-TO-BACK · Washington
Detroit144
Washington140
FINAL · we projected 117 – 108Projected total 225
SPREADWashington +10.556%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 222.553%WIN
Win chance · Detroit favored
OUR PICKWashington +10.5SPREADWIN
56%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Detroit is without Jalen Duren; Washington has home court; Washington played the night before but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Detroit has a big edge in roster quality over Washington
- Washington gets home court
- Washington is on the second night of a back-to-back
OutDetroit: Jalen Duren (C), Isaiah Joe (G); Washington: Jamir Watkins (G), Justin Champagnie (F), Tristan Vukcevic (F), Reece Beekman (G)
OfficialsJB DeRosa, Aaron Smith, Jenna Schroeder
Ref noteSchroeder calls more flagrants: 0.19 a game vs 0.15 league (40 in 215 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- AJ DybantsaUnder 1.5 threes made67%WIN
- Anthony DavisUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
- John CollinsOver 0.5 threes made62%WIN
2 more props
- Alex SarrUnder 7.5 rebounds62%LOSS
- Cade CunninghamUnder 2.5 threes made62%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Detroit is without Jalen Duren
- Washington has 4 players out
- Recent games: Detroit 3-2, Washington 0-5 over their last five
Official profiles: JB DeRosa, Aaron Smith, Jenna Schroeder
JB DeRosaOfficial · 302 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | DeRosa | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.7 | 44.0 | 18 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.7 | 20.0 | 4 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 46.3 | 45.0 | 8 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.39 | 3.23 | 19 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.90 | 0.81 | 13 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.51 | 1.44 | 27 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 18 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.54 | 1.43 | 16 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.2% (165/299)Home covered 49.3% (148/300)Favorite covered 48.2% (144/299)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Aaron SmithOfficial · 217 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Smith | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.2 | 44.0 | 55 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.7 | 20.0 | 50 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.0 | 45.0 | 60 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.17 | 3.23 | 43 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.76 | 0.81 | 52 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.46 | 1.44 | 40 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 42 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.32 | 1.43 | 61 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 42.4% (92/217)Home covered 54.8% (119/217)Favorite covered 56.7% (123/217)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Jenna SchroederOfficial · 215 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls more flagrants.
- Calls more flagrants: 0.19 a game vs 0.15 league (40 in 215 games).
| Measure | Schroeder | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.0 | 44.0 | 65 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.1 | 20.0 | 29 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.8 | 45.0 | 44 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.98 | 3.23 | 66 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.82 | 0.81 | 39 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.38 | 1.44 | 54 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 40 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.57 | 1.43 | 12 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.0% (99/215)Home covered 49.8% (107/215)Favorite covered 47.9% (103/215)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
8:00 PM ET 1 game
Thu Nov 12 · 8:00 PM ET
Dallas94
Minnesota133
FINAL · we projected 110 – 114Projected total 224
SPREADDallas +5.554%
OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 225.551%LOSS
Win chance · Minnesota favored
OUR PICKDallas +5.5SPREADLOSS
54%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Minnesota has a clear edge in roster quality over Dallas
- Minnesota gets home court
- Dallas has 3 players out
OutDallas: Dereck Lively II (C), Daniel Gafford (F), Max Christie (G), Tarik Biberovic (F), Sergio de Larrea (F); Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (G), Donte DiVincenzo (G), Jaylen Clark (G)
OfficialsJames Capers, Sean Corbin, Brent Haskill
Ref noteCapers calls defensive 3 seconds less often: 0.17 a game vs 0.32 league (49 in 288 games). Capers calls traveling less often: 1.15 a game vs 1.44 league (330 in 288 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Terrence Shannon Jr.Under 1.5 threes made63%WIN
- Santi AldamaOver 0.5 threes made62%WIN
- Kyrie IrvingUnder 1.5 steals62%WIN
2 more props
- Rudy GobertUnder 1.5 blocks62%LOSS
- Daniel GaffordUnder 1.5 blocks61%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo
- Recent games: Dallas 3-2, Minnesota 4-1 over their last five
- Minnesota is led by LaMelo Ball
Official profiles: James Capers, Sean Corbin, Brent Haskill
James CapersOfficial · 288 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds less often, calls traveling less often.
- Calls defensive 3 seconds less often: 0.17 a game vs 0.32 league (49 in 288 games).
- Calls traveling less often: 1.15 a game vs 1.44 league (330 in 288 games).
| Measure | Capers | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.2 | 44.0 | 32 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.5 | 20.0 | 64 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.6 | 45.0 | 49 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.38 | 3.23 | 22 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.83 | 0.81 | 36 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.15 | 1.44 | 69 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.29 | 1.33 | 49 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.40 | 1.43 | 44 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.4% (139/287)Home covered 51.8% (147/284)Favorite covered 49.1% (139/283)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Sean CorbinOfficial · 279 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Corbin | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.4 | 44.0 | 48 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.7 | 20.0 | 54 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.4 | 45.0 | 53 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.07 | 3.23 | 55 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.80 | 0.81 | 43 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.46 | 1.44 | 41 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.48 | 1.33 | 9 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.51 | 1.43 | 21 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.9% (147/278)Home covered 51.3% (142/277)Favorite covered 53.8% (149/277)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Brent HaskillOfficial · 33 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Only 33 games on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Haskill | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 46.2 | 44.0 | |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.5 | 20.0 | |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 47.2 | 45.0 | |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.76 | 3.23 | |
| Technicals per game | 1.42 | 0.81 | |
| Traveling per game | 1.39 | 1.44 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.5% (18/33)Home covered 45.5% (15/33)Favorite covered 48.5% (16/33)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
9:00 PM ET 1 game
Thu Nov 12 · 9:00 PM ET
Charlotte96
Phoenix101
FINAL · we projected 110 – 115Projected total 225
SPREADCharlotte +6.555%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 214.565%LOSS
Win chance · Phoenix favored
OUR PICKCharlotte +6.5SPREADWIN
55%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Dennis Schroder but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Phoenix has a clear edge in roster quality over Charlotte
- Phoenix gets home court
- Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Dennis Schroder
OutCharlotte: Dennis Schroder (G), Kon Knueppel (G); Phoenix: Mark Williams (C)
OfficialsScott Foster, Eric Dalen, Matt Myers
Ref noteFoster slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (209 in 327 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Oso IghodaroUnder 5.5 rebounds62%WIN
- Ryan KalkbrennerOver 0.5 blocks62%WIN
- Christian AndersonUnder 0.5 steals61%WIN
2 more props
- Grayson AllenUnder 3.5 threes made61%LOSS
- Khaman MaluachUnder 0.5 steals59%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Charlotte 1-4, Phoenix 3-2 over their last five
- Phoenix is led by Collin Gillespie
- We like Charlotte getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
Official profiles: Scott Foster, Eric Dalen, Matt Myers
Scott FosterOfficial · 327 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: slow to call technicals.
- Slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (209 in 327 games).
| Measure | Foster | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.8 | 44.0 | 16 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.2 | 20.0 | 26 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.7 | 45.0 | 20 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.72 | 3.23 | 1 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.64 | 0.81 | 70 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.54 | 1.44 | 22 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 50 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.50 | 1.43 | 22 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.1% (177/327)Home covered 54.4% (178/327)Favorite covered 51.4% (168/327)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Eric DalenOfficial · 273 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Dalen | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.1 | 44.0 | 62 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.6 | 20.0 | 57 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 43.8 | 45.0 | 63 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.24 | 3.23 | 33 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.77 | 0.81 | 51 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.41 | 1.44 | 52 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 24 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.49 | 1.43 | 26 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.3% (119/275)Home covered 52.4% (143/273)Favorite covered 52.0% (142/273)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Matt MyersOfficial · 240 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Myers | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.5 | 44.0 | 25 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.5 | 20.0 | 10 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.7 | 45.0 | 19 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.25 | 3.23 | 32 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.76 | 0.81 | 53 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.43 | 1.44 | 47 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 23 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.32 | 1.43 | 59 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.1% (124/238)Home covered 51.9% (124/239)Favorite covered 56.3% (134/238)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.