Pro Basketball Picks Mon Nov 9

MONDAY NOV 9 graded picks

Went 2-6 on the day

7:00 PM ET 4 games

Mon Nov 9 · 7:00 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · Los Angeles (L)

Los Angeles (L)124

Atlanta114

FINAL · we projected 114 – 113Projected total 227

SPREADLos Angeles (L) +1.558%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 233.559%LOSS

51%

49%

Win chance · Los Angeles (L) favored

OUR PICKLos Angeles (L) +1.5SPREADWIN

58%Confidence

Los Angeles (L) has the stronger roster on paper; Los Angeles (L) played the night before and is without Quentin Grimes but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

Los Angeles (L) has a clear edge in roster quality over Atlanta
Atlanta gets home court
Los Angeles (L) is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutAtlanta: Keshon Gilbert (G), Mouhamed Gueye (F), Asa Newell (F), Henri Veesaar (C)

OfficialsJames Williams, Brian Forte, Che Flores

Ref noteWilliams calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.42 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 370 games). Forte calls traveling less often: 1.12 a game vs 1.44 league (382 in 340 games). Flores calls fewer flagrants: 0.09 a game vs 0.15 league (15 in 159 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Jalen JohnsonUnder 1.5 steals63%LOSS
Aaron WigginsUnder 2.5 threes made63%LOSS
Sandro MamukelashviliOver 0.5 threes made63%WIN

2 more props

Matisse ThybulleUnder 2.5 steals62%LOSS
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerUnder 1.5 steals62%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Los Angeles (L) is without Austin Reaves and Quentin Grimes
Atlanta has 4 players out
Recent games: Los Angeles (L) 5-0, Atlanta 4-1 over their last five

Official profiles: James Williams, Brian Forte, Che Flores

James WilliamsOfficial · 370 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often.

Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.42 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 370 games).

Measure	Williams	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.0	44.0	63 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.1	20.0	71 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.4	45.0	69 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.16	3.23	44 of 73
Technicals per game	0.93	0.81	6 of 73
Traveling per game	1.51	1.44	28 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.38	1.33	29 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.43	1.43	36 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.6% (183/369)Home covered 54.0% (198/367)Favorite covered 51.2% (188/367)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Brian ForteOfficial · 340 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls traveling less often.

Calls traveling less often: 1.12 a game vs 1.44 league (382 in 340 games).

Measure	Forte	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.9	44.0	66 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.7	20.0	52 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.1	45.0	57 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.29	3.23	26 of 73
Technicals per game	0.89	0.81	15 of 73
Traveling per game	1.12	1.44	71 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.26	1.33	56 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.40	1.43	43 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 43.3% (146/337)Home covered 53.0% (179/338)Favorite covered 50.0% (169/338)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Che FloresOfficial · 159 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls fewer flagrants.

Calls fewer flagrants: 0.09 a game vs 0.15 league (15 in 159 games).

Measure	Flores	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.4	44.0	49 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.6	20.0	6 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.6	45.0	22 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.07	3.23	54 of 73
Technicals per game	0.68	0.81	67 of 73
Traveling per game	1.35	1.44	57 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.28	1.33	53 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.42	1.43	38 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.5% (85/159)Home covered 46.2% (73/158)Favorite covered 48.7% (77/158)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Mon Nov 9 · 7:00 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · Detroit

Washington111

Detroit122

FINAL · we projected 108 – 117Projected total 225

SPREADWashington +10.555%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 218.559%WIN

25%

75%

Win chance · Detroit favored

OUR PICKWashington +10.5SPREADLOSS

55%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Detroit is without Jalen Duren; Detroit played the night before.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Detroit has a big edge in roster quality over Washington
Detroit gets home court
Detroit is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutWashington: Bub Carrington (G), Jamir Watkins (G), Justin Champagnie (F), Tristan Vukcevic (F), Reece Beekman (G); Detroit: Jalen Duren (C), Isaiah Joe (G)

OfficialsTony Brothers, Jacyn Goble, Pat O'Connell

Ref noteBrothers calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.43 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 359 games).

PLAYER PROPS

AJ DybantsaUnder 1.5 threes made66%WIN
Kyshawn GeorgeUnder 1.5 steals65%WIN
Anthony DavisUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN

2 more props

Paul ReedUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN
John CollinsOver 0.5 threes made61%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Washington is without Bilal Coulibaly
Detroit is without Jalen Duren
Recent games: Washington 2-3, Detroit 3-2 over their last five

Official profiles: Tony Brothers, Jacyn Goble, Pat O'Connell

Tony BrothersOfficial · 359 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often.

Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.43 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 359 games).

Measure	Brothers	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.2	44.0	7 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.4	20.0	17 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.4	45.0	7 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.40	3.23	17 of 73
Technicals per game	0.94	0.81	5 of 73
Traveling per game	1.56	1.44	18 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.35	1.33	37 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.48	1.43	28 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.6% (195/357)Home covered 51.0% (182/357)Favorite covered 49.3% (176/357)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Jacyn GobleOfficial · 345 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Goble	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.0	44.0	38 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	9 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.0	45.0	13 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.18	3.23	39 of 73
Technicals per game	0.92	0.81	7 of 73
Traveling per game	1.30	1.44	61 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.38	1.33	30 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.53	1.43	17 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.5% (184/344)Home covered 48.8% (168/344)Favorite covered 50.6% (174/344)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Pat O'ConnellOfficial · 64 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Only 64 games on record: too few to judge.

Measure	O'Connell	League
Calls per game	45.1	44.0
Shooting fouls per game	20.9	20.0
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.7	45.0
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.23	3.23
Technicals per game	0.80	0.81
Traveling per game	1.34	1.44
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.61	1.33
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.53	1.43

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.3% (29/64)Home covered 62.5% (40/64)Favorite covered 40.6% (26/64)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Mon Nov 9 · 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland112

Charlotte124

FINAL · we projected 120 – 111Projected total 231

SPREADCharlotte +8.550%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 215.571%WIN

74%

26%

Win chance · Cleveland favored

OUR PICKCharlotte +8.5SPREADWIN

50%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Cleveland is without Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill; Charlotte has home court; Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Dennis Schroder but still gets the edge.

✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Cleveland has a big edge in roster quality over Charlotte
Charlotte gets home court
Cleveland is without Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill

OutCleveland: Evan Mobley (C), Sam Merrill (G); Charlotte: Kon Knueppel (G), Brandon Miller (F), Dennis Schroder (G)

OfficialsRay Acosta, Aaron Smith, Suyash Mehta

PLAYER PROPS

Jarrett AllenUnder 1.5 blocks67%WIN
Grayson AllenUnder 1.5 steals65%LOSS
Coby WhiteUnder 2.5 threes made63%WIN

2 more props

Ryan KalkbrennerUnder 1.5 blocks63%LOSS
James HardenUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Moussa Diabate
Recent games: Cleveland 2-3, Charlotte 0-5 over their last five
Cleveland is led by Donovan Mitchell

Official profiles: Ray Acosta, Aaron Smith, Suyash Mehta

Ray AcostaOfficial · 336 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Acosta	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.1	44.0	60 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.9	20.0	44 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.7	45.0	47 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.18	3.23	40 of 73
Technicals per game	0.82	0.81	38 of 73
Traveling per game	1.44	1.44	44 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.38	1.33	31 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.50	1.43	25 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.5% (165/333)Home covered 49.1% (163/332)Favorite covered 43.4% (144/332)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Aaron SmithOfficial · 217 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Smith	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.2	44.0	55 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.7	20.0	50 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.0	45.0	60 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.17	3.23	43 of 73
Technicals per game	0.76	0.81	52 of 73
Traveling per game	1.46	1.44	40 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.33	1.33	42 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.32	1.43	61 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 42.4% (92/217)Home covered 54.8% (119/217)Favorite covered 56.7% (123/217)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Suyash MehtaOfficial · 214 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Mehta	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.1	44.0	35 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	13 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.9	45.0	14 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.26	3.23	29 of 73
Technicals per game	0.87	0.81	20 of 73
Traveling per game	1.42	1.44	49 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.22	1.33	59 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.37	1.43	51 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.4% (110/214)Home covered 54.5% (116/213)Favorite covered 54.9% (117/213)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Mon Nov 9 · 7:30 PM ET

Memphis118

Toronto102

FINAL · we projected 111 – 113Projected total 224

SPREADToronto -2.559%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 225.551%WIN

44%

56%

Win chance · Toronto favored

OUR PICKToronto -2.5SPREADLOSS

59%Confidence

Toronto has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Toronto is without Kawhi Leonard but still gets the edge.

✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Toronto and Memphis are closely matched on paper
Toronto gets home court
Memphis has 3 players out

OutMemphis: Zach Edey (C), Scotty Pippen Jr. (G), Quinten Post (C), Richie Saunders (G); Toronto: Scottie Barnes (F), Kawhi Leonard (F), Trayce Jackson-Davis (F), Nate Bittle (C)

OfficialsJohn Goble, Ashley Moyer-Gleich, Derrick Collins

Ref noteGoble calls traveling often: 1.98 a game vs 1.44 league (622 in 314 games). Moyer-Gleich calls fewer flagrants: 0.10 a game vs 0.15 league (17 in 175 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Collin Murray-BoylesUnder 1.5 steals64%
Ja'Kobe WalterUnder 4.5 rebounds62%LOSS
Zach EdeyUnder 1.5 blocks61%WIN

2 more props

Immanuel QuickleyUnder 1.5 steals61%
RJ BarrettUnder 6.5 rebounds59%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Toronto is without Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard and Immanuel Quickley
Recent games: Memphis 2-3, Toronto 2-3 over their last five
Toronto is led by Jakob Poeltl

Official profiles: John Goble, Ashley Moyer-Gleich, Derrick Collins

John GobleOfficial · 314 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls traveling often.

Calls traveling often: 1.98 a game vs 1.44 league (622 in 314 games).

Measure	Goble	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.3	44.0	6 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.3	20.0	67 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.0	45.0	59 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.27	3.23	28 of 73
Technicals per game	0.91	0.81	10 of 73
Traveling per game	1.98	1.44	1 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.47	1.33	12 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.46	1.43	34 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.7% (156/314)Home covered 53.0% (166/313)Favorite covered 47.8% (149/312)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Ashley Moyer-GleichOfficial · 175 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls fewer flagrants.

Calls fewer flagrants: 0.10 a game vs 0.15 league (17 in 175 games).

Measure	Moyer-Gleich	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.0	44.0	39 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.7	20.0	3 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.8	45.0	15 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.29	3.23	27 of 73
Technicals per game	0.78	0.81	46 of 73
Traveling per game	1.46	1.44	37 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.33	1.33	43 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.37	1.43	52 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.1% (89/174)Home covered 48.0% (84/175)Favorite covered 43.4% (76/175)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Derrick CollinsOfficial · 217 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Collins	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.8	44.0	68 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.6	20.0	56 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.5	45.0	68 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.14	3.23	46 of 73
Technicals per game	0.75	0.81	56 of 73
Traveling per game	1.20	1.44	65 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.07	1.33	72 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.21	1.43	71 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.2% (102/216)Home covered 49.8% (108/217)Favorite covered 50.2% (109/217)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

8:00 PM ET 2 games

Mon Nov 9 · 8:00 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · Dallas

Indiana122

Dallas125

FINAL · we projected 111 – 116Projected total 227

SPREADDallas -4.552%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 226.550%LOSS

35%

65%

Win chance · Dallas favored

OUR PICKDallas -4.5SPREADLOSS

52%Confidence

Dallas has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton; Dallas played the night before but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

Dallas has a clear edge in roster quality over Indiana
Dallas gets home court
Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutIndiana: Tyrese Haliburton (G), Ben Sheppard (G), Johnny Furphy (G); Dallas: Dereck Lively II (C), Sergio de Larrea (F), Tarik Biberovic (F)

OfficialsSean Wright, JB DeRosa, JD Ralls

Ref noteRalls calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.41 a game vs 0.32 league (44 in 107 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Ivica ZubacUnder 0.5 steals63%WIN
Kyrie IrvingUnder 1.5 steals62%WIN
Cooper FlaggUnder 1.5 threes made62%LOSS

2 more props

Pascal SiakamUnder 6.5 rebounds60%LOSS
Santi AldamaOver 0.5 threes made60%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton
Dallas has 4 players out
Recent games: Indiana 1-4, Dallas 3-2 over their last five

Official profiles: Sean Wright, JB DeRosa, JD Ralls

Sean WrightOfficial · 336 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Wright	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.4	44.0	5 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.2	20.0	24 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.8	45.0	3 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.22	3.23	35 of 73
Technicals per game	0.86	0.81	24 of 73
Traveling per game	1.48	1.44	34 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.43	1.33	22 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.52	1.43	20 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.0% (171/335)Home covered 48.1% (161/335)Favorite covered 52.1% (174/334)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

JB DeRosaOfficial · 302 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	DeRosa	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.7	44.0	18 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.7	20.0	4 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.3	45.0	8 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.39	3.23	19 of 73
Technicals per game	0.90	0.81	13 of 73
Traveling per game	1.51	1.44	27 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.44	1.33	18 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.54	1.43	16 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.2% (165/299)Home covered 49.3% (148/300)Favorite covered 48.2% (144/299)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

JD RallsOfficial · 107 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often.

Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.41 a game vs 0.32 league (44 in 107 games).

Measure	Ralls	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.5	44.0	21 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.3	20.0	19 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.2	45.0	9 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.88	3.23	71 of 73
Technicals per game	0.84	0.81	28 of 73
Traveling per game	1.07	1.44	73 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.19	1.33	63 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.11	1.43	72 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.5% (54/107)Home covered 43.9% (47/107)Favorite covered 53.3% (57/107)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Mon Nov 9 · 8:30 PM ET

Denver100

Houston110

FINAL · we projected 115 – 119Projected total 234

SPREADDenver +4.552%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 223.565%LOSS

39%

61%

Win chance · Houston favored

OUR PICKDenver +4.5SPREADLOSS

52%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

Houston and Denver are closely matched on paper
Houston gets home court
Houston has 3 players out

OutDenver: Julian Strawther (G); Houston: Steven Adams (C), Clint Capela (C)

OfficialsNick Buchert, John Butler, Robert Hussey

Ref noteBuchert calls traveling often: 1.74 a game vs 1.44 league (574 in 330 games). Buchert calls more flagrants: 0.20 a game vs 0.15 league (65 in 330 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Christian BraunUnder 1.5 steals64%LOSS
Aaron GordonUnder 0.5 blocks64%WIN
Amen ThompsonOver 0.5 steals62%WIN

2 more props

Tari EasonUnder 1.5 threes made62%LOSS
Marcus SmartUnder 1.5 threes made60%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Recent games: Denver 4-1, Houston 2-3 over their last five
Houston is led by Alperen Sengun
We like Denver getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says

Official profiles: Nick Buchert, John Butler, Robert Hussey

Nick BuchertOfficial · 330 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls traveling often, calls more flagrants.

Calls traveling often: 1.74 a game vs 1.44 league (574 in 330 games).
Calls more flagrants: 0.20 a game vs 0.15 league (65 in 330 games).

Measure	Buchert	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.9	44.0	14 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.8	20.0	46 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.2	45.0	31 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.13	3.23	48 of 73
Technicals per game	0.90	0.81	14 of 73
Traveling per game	1.74	1.44	3 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.58	1.33	4 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.60	1.43	8 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (164/328)Home covered 44.3% (145/327)Favorite covered 46.2% (151/327)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

John ButlerOfficial · 273 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Butler	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.2	44.0	56 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.2	20.0	25 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.9	45.0	41 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.90	3.23	70 of 73
Technicals per game	0.74	0.81	58 of 73
Traveling per game	1.51	1.44	29 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.12	1.33	67 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.27	1.43	67 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.6% (135/272)Home covered 48.7% (132/271)Favorite covered 48.7% (132/271)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Robert HusseyOfficial · 173 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hussey	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.4	44.0	51 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.3	20.0	20 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.0	45.0	38 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.01	3.23	63 of 73
Technicals per game	0.77	0.81	48 of 73
Traveling per game	1.46	1.44	38 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.40	1.33	25 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.71	1.43	2 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.9% (91/172)Home covered 55.8% (96/172)Favorite covered 43.0% (74/172)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

9:00 PM ET 1 game

Mon Nov 9 · 9:00 PM ET

San Antonio122

Phoenix96

FINAL · we projected 118 – 111Projected total 229

SPREADPhoenix +8.553%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 225.555%LOSS

71%

29%

Win chance · San Antonio favored

OUR PICKPhoenix +8.5SPREADLOSS

53%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; San Antonio is without Devin Vassell and Tobias Harris; Phoenix has home court.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

San Antonio has a big edge in roster quality over Phoenix
Phoenix gets home court
San Antonio is without Devin Vassell and Tobias Harris

OutSan Antonio: Tobias Harris (F), Jayden Quaintance (F); Phoenix: Mark Williams (C)

OfficialsJustin Van Duyne, Natalie Sago, Brandon Adair

Ref noteAdair slow to call technicals: 0.62 a game vs 0.81 league (146 in 235 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Dillon BrooksUnder 1.5 steals65%WIN
Victor WembanyamaUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
De'Aaron FoxUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN

2 more props

Collin GillespieUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN
Luke KornetUnder 5.5 rebounds60%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Recent games: San Antonio 5-0, Phoenix 2-3 over their last five
San Antonio is led by Victor Wembanyama
We like Phoenix getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says

Official profiles: Justin Van Duyne, Natalie Sago, Brandon Adair

Justin Van DuyneOfficial · 322 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Duyne	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.1	44.0	61 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.4	20.0	66 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.7	45.0	65 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.50	3.23	10 of 73
Technicals per game	0.75	0.81	57 of 73
Traveling per game	1.50	1.44	31 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.27	1.33	54 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.39	1.43	47 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 40.4% (130/322)Home covered 42.9% (137/319)Favorite covered 45.8% (146/319)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Natalie SagoOfficial · 318 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Sago	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.5	44.0	47 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	16 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.1	45.0	33 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.20	3.23	38 of 73
Technicals per game	0.87	0.81	21 of 73
Traveling per game	1.59	1.44	15 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.21	1.33	60 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.28	1.43	65 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.3% (153/317)Home covered 51.0% (160/314)Favorite covered 50.6% (159/314)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Brandon AdairOfficial · 235 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: slow to call technicals.

Slow to call technicals: 0.62 a game vs 0.81 league (146 in 235 games).

Measure	Adair	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.0	44.0	72 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.5	20.0	63 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.3	45.0	71 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.93	3.23	69 of 73
Technicals per game	0.62	0.81	71 of 73
Traveling per game	1.50	1.44	30 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.34	1.33	39 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.42	1.43	39 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 41.9% (98/234)Home covered 47.4% (110/232)Favorite covered 49.4% (114/231)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

10:00 PM ET 1 game

Mon Nov 9 · 10:00 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · New Orleans

New Orleans87

Golden State138

FINAL · we projected 108 – 117Projected total 225

SPREADNew Orleans +11.557%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 228.555%WIN

26%

74%

Win chance · Golden State favored

OUR PICKNew Orleans +11.5SPREADLOSS

57%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis; New Orleans played the night before and is without Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Golden State has a clear edge in roster quality over New Orleans
Golden State gets home court
New Orleans is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutNew Orleans: Yves Missi (C), Trendon Watford (F); Golden State: Jimmy Butler III (F), Stephen Curry (G), Moses Moody (G), Kristaps Porzingis (C), Brandon Williams (G)

OfficialsBen Taylor, Nate Green, Brandon Schwab

PLAYER PROPS

Stephen CurryUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
Brandin PodziemskiOver 0.5 steals61%WIN
De'Anthony MeltonUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN

2 more props

Saddiq BeyUnder 2.5 threes made61%WIN
Karlo MatkovicOver 0.5 threes made60%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

New Orleans is without Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson
Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis
Recent games: New Orleans 3-2, Golden State 5-0 over their last five

Official profiles: Ben Taylor, Nate Green, Brandon Schwab

Ben TaylorOfficial · 280 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Taylor	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.8	44.0	15 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.5	20.0	60 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.9	45.0	39 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.61	3.23	4 of 73
Technicals per game	0.88	0.81	18 of 73
Traveling per game	1.48	1.44	35 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.31	1.33	46 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.32	1.43	58 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.1% (147/277)Home covered 51.1% (142/278)Favorite covered 54.7% (152/278)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Nate GreenOfficial · 219 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Green	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.7	44.0	44 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.9	20.0	40 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.9	45.0	42 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.00	3.23	64 of 73
Technicals per game	0.89	0.81	16 of 73
Traveling per game	1.31	1.44	59 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.47	1.33	15 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.31	1.43	63 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.9% (100/218)Home covered 46.6% (102/219)Favorite covered 43.4% (95/219)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Brandon SchwabOfficial · 221 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Schwab	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.1	44.0	58 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.7	20.0	5 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.7	45.0	46 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.05	3.23	60 of 73
Technicals per game	0.73	0.81	60 of 73
Traveling per game	1.52	1.44	26 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.26	1.33	55 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.41	1.43	40 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.3% (108/219)Home covered 54.3% (120/221)Favorite covered 51.6% (114/221)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.