Pro Basketball Picks Wed Nov 11

WEDNESDAY NOV 11 graded picks

Went 5-5 on the day

7:00 PM ET 3 games

TOP PICKWed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · New York

Cleveland115

New York107

FINAL · we projected 117 – 118Projected total 235

SPREADCleveland +4.563%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 221.569%WIN

48%

52%

Win chance · New York favored

OUR PICKCleveland +4.5SPREADWIN

63%Confidence

Cleveland has a slight edge on paper; New York is without Josh Hart; New York played the night before; Cleveland is without Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill but still gets the edge.

✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

New York and Cleveland are closely matched on paper
New York gets home court
New York is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutCleveland: James Harden (G), Donovan Mitchell (G), Evan Mobley (C), Peyton Watson (G), Sam Merrill (G), Jarrett Allen (C), Nae'Qwan Tomlin (F)

OfficialsKarl Lane, Marat Kogut, Jenna Reneau

Ref noteKogut quick with technicals: 1.01 a game vs 0.81 league (288 in 286 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Jarrett AllenUnder 1.5 blocks67%WIN
Mikal BridgesUnder 1.5 steals67%WIN
Peyton WatsonUnder 1.5 blocks64%LOSS

2 more props

Donovan MitchellUnder 1.5 steals61%LOSS
Evan MobleyUnder 1.5 threes made61%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Cleveland is without Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill
Recent games: Cleveland 1-4, New York 4-1 over their last five
New York is led by Jalen Brunson

Official profiles: Karl Lane, Marat Kogut, Jenna Reneau

Karl LaneOfficial · 319 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Lane	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.8	44.0	43 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.1	20.0	32 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.1	45.0	36 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.10	3.23	50 of 73
Technicals per game	0.74	0.81	59 of 73
Traveling per game	1.60	1.44	14 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.24	1.33	58 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.45	1.43	35 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.1% (169/318)Home covered 51.1% (162/317)Favorite covered 51.4% (163/317)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Marat KogutOfficial · 286 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: quick with technicals.

Quick with technicals: 1.01 a game vs 0.81 league (288 in 286 games).

Measure	Kogut	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.2	44.0	8 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.1	20.0	31 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.1	45.0	10 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.51	3.23	8 of 73
Technicals per game	1.01	0.81	3 of 73
Traveling per game	1.54	1.44	21 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.44	1.33	19 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.47	1.43	29 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.3% (140/284)Home covered 47.2% (134/284)Favorite covered 50.0% (142/284)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Jenna ReneauOfficial · 69 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Only 69 games on record: too few to judge.

Measure	Reneau	League
Calls per game	44.1	44.0
Shooting fouls per game	20.3	20.0
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.9	45.0
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.96	3.23
Technicals per game	0.87	0.81
Traveling per game	1.12	1.44
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.00	1.33
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.19	1.43

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.6% (31/68)Home covered 44.1% (30/68)Favorite covered 45.6% (31/68)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · Boston

Boston98

Toronto93

FINAL · we projected 114 – 111Projected total 225

SPREADToronto +5.556%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 216.563%LOSS

60%

40%

Win chance · Boston favored

OUR PICKToronto +5.5SPREADWIN

56%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Boston is without Paul George; Toronto has home court; Boston played the night before; Toronto is without Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

Boston has a big edge in roster quality over Toronto
Toronto gets home court
Boston is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutToronto: Scottie Barnes (F), Kawhi Leonard (F), Nate Bittle (C)

OfficialsGediminas Petraitis, Justin Van Duyne, JT Orr

Ref noteOrr calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.51 a game vs 0.32 league (132 in 261 games). Orr quick with technicals: 0.97 a game vs 0.81 league (253 in 261 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Derrick WhiteUnder 1.5 steals66%WIN
RJ BarrettUnder 2.5 threes made65%WIN
Neemias QuetaUnder 1.5 blocks64%LOSS

2 more props

Jayson TatumUnder 1.5 steals64%WIN
Sam HauserUnder 0.5 steals61%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Boston is without Paul George
Toronto is without Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard
Recent games: Boston 4-1, Toronto 2-3 over their last five

Official profiles: Gediminas Petraitis, Justin Van Duyne, JT Orr

Gediminas PetraitisOfficial · 336 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Petraitis	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.3	44.0	29 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.1	20.0	28 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.7	45.0	17 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.43	3.23	16 of 73
Technicals per game	0.90	0.81	11 of 73
Traveling per game	1.23	1.44	64 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.36	1.33	36 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.39	1.43	48 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.5% (172/334)Home covered 46.7% (155/332)Favorite covered 52.7% (175/332)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Justin Van DuyneOfficial · 322 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Duyne	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.1	44.0	61 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.4	20.0	66 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.7	45.0	65 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.50	3.23	10 of 73
Technicals per game	0.75	0.81	57 of 73
Traveling per game	1.50	1.44	31 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.27	1.33	54 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.39	1.43	47 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 40.4% (130/322)Home covered 42.9% (137/319)Favorite covered 45.8% (146/319)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

JT OrrOfficial · 261 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often, quick with technicals.

Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.51 a game vs 0.32 league (132 in 261 games).
Quick with technicals: 0.97 a game vs 0.81 league (253 in 261 games).

Measure	Orr	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.4	44.0	26 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.5	20.0	61 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.4	45.0	54 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.25	3.23	30 of 73
Technicals per game	0.97	0.81	4 of 73
Traveling per game	1.54	1.44	23 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.34	1.33	38 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.35	1.43	55 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.6% (119/261)Home covered 48.3% (126/261)Favorite covered 47.1% (123/261)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

Washington101

Indiana114

FINAL · we projected 113 – 116Projected total 229

SPREADIndiana -3.550%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 227.552%LOSS

40%

60%

Win chance · Indiana favored

OUR PICKIndiana -3.5SPREADWIN

50%Confidence

Indiana has a slight edge on paper and home court; Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

Indiana and Washington are closely matched on paper
Indiana gets home court
Washington has 4 players out

OutWashington: Jamir Watkins (G), Justin Champagnie (F), Tristan Vukcevic (F), Reece Beekman (G); Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton (G), Ben Sheppard (G), Johnny Furphy (G)

OfficialsTyler Ford, Dedric Taylor, CJ Washington

Ref noteWashington calls fewer flagrants: 0.10 a game vs 0.15 league (24 in 244 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Andrew NembhardUnder 1.5 steals66%WIN
AJ DybantsaUnder 1.5 threes made65%WIN
Anthony DavisUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN

2 more props

Ivica ZubacUnder 0.5 steals63%WIN
Aaron NesmithUnder 2.5 threes made62%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton
Recent games: Washington 1-4, Indiana 1-4 over their last five
Indiana is led by Ivica Zubac

Official profiles: Tyler Ford, Dedric Taylor, CJ Washington

Tyler FordOfficial · 343 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Ford	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.4	44.0	4 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.9	20.0	1 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.8	45.0	2 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.40	3.23	18 of 73
Technicals per game	0.77	0.81	50 of 73
Traveling per game	1.64	1.44	8 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.40	1.33	26 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.50	1.43	24 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.9% (181/342)Home covered 47.4% (161/340)Favorite covered 52.6% (179/340)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Dedric TaylorOfficial · 263 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Taylor	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.1	44.0	9 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	14 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.0	45.0	12 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.25	3.23	31 of 73
Technicals per game	0.90	0.81	12 of 73
Traveling per game	1.63	1.44	9 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.48	1.33	10 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.56	1.43	13 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.5% (136/259)Home covered 51.5% (134/260)Favorite covered 53.8% (140/260)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

CJ WashingtonOfficial · 244 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls fewer flagrants.

Calls fewer flagrants: 0.10 a game vs 0.15 league (24 in 244 games).

Measure	Washington	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.7	44.0	19 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	12 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.8	45.0	16 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.22	3.23	37 of 73
Technicals per game	0.83	0.81	32 of 73
Traveling per game	1.56	1.44	19 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.47	1.33	12 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.50	1.43	23 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 56.0% (136/243)Home covered 42.8% (104/243)Favorite covered 45.7% (111/243)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

8:00 PM ET 4 games

TOP PICKWed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

San Antonio124

Chicago119

FINAL · we projected 120 – 108Projected total 228

SPREADChicago +15.563%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 235.562%LOSS

81%

19%

Win chance · San Antonio favored

OUR PICKChicago +15.5SPREADWIN

63%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; San Antonio is without Tobias Harris; Chicago has home court.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

San Antonio has a big edge in roster quality over Chicago
Chicago gets home court
San Antonio is without Devin Vassell and Tobias Harris

OutSan Antonio: Tobias Harris (F), Jayden Quaintance (F); Chicago: Caleb Wilson (F), Jalen Smith (F), Nic Claxton (C), Tobe Awaka (F)

OfficialsKevin Scott, Brian Forte, JD Ralls

Ref noteScott calls traveling less often: 1.19 a game vs 1.44 league (374 in 314 games). Forte calls traveling less often: 1.12 a game vs 1.44 league (382 in 340 games). Ralls calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.41 a game vs 0.32 league (44 in 107 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Caleb WilsonUnder 2.5 threes made64%WIN
De'Aaron FoxUnder 1.5 steals63%LOSS
Matas BuzelisUnder 1.5 blocks62%WIN

2 more props

Dylan HarperOver 0.5 threes made62%WIN
Victor WembanyamaUnder 3.5 blocks61%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Chicago is without Norman Powell
Recent games: San Antonio 5-0, Chicago 0-5 over their last five
San Antonio is led by Victor Wembanyama

Official profiles: Kevin Scott, Brian Forte, JD Ralls

Kevin ScottOfficial · 314 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls traveling less often.

Calls traveling less often: 1.19 a game vs 1.44 league (374 in 314 games).

Measure	Scott	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.9	44.0	67 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.7	20.0	53 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.2	45.0	56 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.07	3.23	53 of 73
Technicals per game	0.77	0.81	47 of 73
Traveling per game	1.19	1.44	68 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.15	1.33	65 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.29	1.43	64 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.2% (158/315)Home covered 49.4% (154/312)Favorite covered 48.9% (152/311)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Brian ForteOfficial · 340 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls traveling less often.

Calls traveling less often: 1.12 a game vs 1.44 league (382 in 340 games).

Measure	Forte	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.9	44.0	66 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.7	20.0	52 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.1	45.0	57 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.29	3.23	26 of 73
Technicals per game	0.89	0.81	15 of 73
Traveling per game	1.12	1.44	71 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.26	1.33	56 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.40	1.43	43 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 43.3% (146/337)Home covered 53.0% (179/338)Favorite covered 50.0% (169/338)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

JD RallsOfficial · 107 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often.

Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.41 a game vs 0.32 league (44 in 107 games).

Measure	Ralls	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.5	44.0	21 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.3	20.0	19 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.2	45.0	9 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.88	3.23	71 of 73
Technicals per game	0.84	0.81	28 of 73
Traveling per game	1.07	1.44	73 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.19	1.33	63 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.11	1.43	72 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.5% (54/107)Home covered 43.9% (47/107)Favorite covered 53.3% (57/107)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

TOP PICKWed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

Denver123

Memphis118

FINAL · we projected 118 – 117Projected total 235

SPREADMemphis +4.560%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 230.557%WIN

53%

47%

Win chance · Denver favored

OUR PICKMemphis +4.5SPREADLOSS

60%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Memphis has home court.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Denver has a clear edge in roster quality over Memphis
Memphis gets home court
Memphis has 3 players out

OutDenver: Julian Strawther (G); Memphis: Ty Jerome (G), Jerami Grant (F), Zach Edey (C), Scotty Pippen Jr. (G), GG Jackson (F), Quinten Post (C), Richie Saunders (G)

OfficialsJames Williams, Tre Maddox, Pat O'Connell

Ref noteWilliams calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.42 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 370 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Christian BraunUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
Zach EdeyUnder 1.5 blocks62%WIN
DeMar DeRozanOver 1.5 rebounds59%LOSS

2 more props

Jaylen WellsUnder 3.5 rebounds59%WIN
Javon SmallUnder 3.5 rebounds59%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Recent games: Denver 3-2, Memphis 2-3 over their last five
Denver is led by Nikola Jokic
We like Memphis getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says

Official profiles: James Williams, Tre Maddox, Pat O'Connell

James WilliamsOfficial · 370 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often.

Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.42 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 370 games).

Measure	Williams	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.0	44.0	63 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.1	20.0	71 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.4	45.0	69 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.16	3.23	44 of 73
Technicals per game	0.93	0.81	6 of 73
Traveling per game	1.51	1.44	28 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.38	1.33	29 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.43	1.43	36 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.6% (183/369)Home covered 54.0% (198/367)Favorite covered 51.2% (188/367)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Tre MaddoxOfficial · 259 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Maddox	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.2	44.0	33 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.1	20.0	34 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.1	45.0	34 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.47	3.23	13 of 73
Technicals per game	0.81	0.81	41 of 73
Traveling per game	1.37	1.44	55 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.37	1.33	33 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.27	1.43	68 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.5% (136/259)Home covered 56.4% (146/259)Favorite covered 54.4% (141/259)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Pat O'ConnellOfficial · 64 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Only 64 games on record: too few to judge.

Measure	O'Connell	League
Calls per game	45.1	44.0
Shooting fouls per game	20.9	20.0
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.7	45.0
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.23	3.23
Technicals per game	0.80	0.81
Traveling per game	1.34	1.44
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.61	1.33
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.53	1.43

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.3% (29/64)Home covered 62.5% (40/64)Favorite covered 40.6% (26/64)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · Milwaukee

Los Angeles (L)123

Milwaukee112

FINAL · we projected 122 – 109Projected total 231

SPREADMilwaukee +14.556%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 229.552%WIN

81%

19%

Win chance · Los Angeles (L) favored

OUR PICKMilwaukee +14.5SPREADWIN

56%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Los Angeles (L) is without Quentin Grimes; Milwaukee has home court; Milwaukee played the night before and is without Myles Turner but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Los Angeles (L) has a big edge in roster quality over Milwaukee
Milwaukee gets home court
Milwaukee is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutLos Angeles (L): Austin Reaves (G); Milwaukee: Ousmane Dieng (F)

OfficialsTony Brothers, Jason Goldenberg, Chelisa Painter

Ref noteBrothers calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.43 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 359 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Jaime Jaquez Jr.Under 0.5 blocks65%WIN
Matisse ThybulleOver 1.5 rebounds62%WIN
Ziaire WilliamsUnder 1.5 steals60%LOSS

2 more props

Jake LaRaviaUnder 1.5 steals60%WIN
Austin ReavesOver 3.5 rebounds58%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Los Angeles (L) is without Quentin Grimes
Milwaukee is without Myles Turner
Recent games: Los Angeles (L) 5-0, Milwaukee 0-5 over their last five

Official profiles: Tony Brothers, Jason Goldenberg, Chelisa Painter

Tony BrothersOfficial · 359 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often.

Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.43 a game vs 0.32 league (156 in 359 games).

Measure	Brothers	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.2	44.0	7 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.4	20.0	17 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.4	45.0	7 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.40	3.23	17 of 73
Technicals per game	0.94	0.81	5 of 73
Traveling per game	1.56	1.44	18 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.35	1.33	37 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.48	1.43	28 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.6% (195/357)Home covered 51.0% (182/357)Favorite covered 49.3% (176/357)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Jason GoldenbergOfficial · 256 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Goldenberg	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.5	44.0	23 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.6	20.0	8 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.5	45.0	6 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.22	3.23	36 of 73
Technicals per game	0.86	0.81	23 of 73
Traveling per game	1.57	1.44	17 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.48	1.33	11 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.64	1.43	5 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.7% (141/253)Home covered 49.2% (126/256)Favorite covered 52.7% (135/256)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Chelisa PainterOfficial · 3 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Only 3 games on record: too few to judge.

Measure	Painter	League
Calls per game	45.3	44.0
Shooting fouls per game	20.3	20.0
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	42.3	45.0
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.33	3.23
Technicals per game	1.33	0.81
Traveling per game	1.33	1.44

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 0.0% (0/3)Home covered 0.0% (0/3)Favorite covered 66.7% (2/3)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

Brooklyn145

New Orleans111

FINAL · we projected 112 – 113Projected total 225

SPREADNew Orleans -2.550%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 229.556%LOSS

46%

54%

Win chance · New Orleans favored

OUR PICKNew Orleans -2.5SPREADLOSS

50%Confidence

New Orleans has a slight edge on paper and home court; New Orleans is without Bennedict Mathurin but still gets the edge.

✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

New Orleans and Brooklyn are closely matched on paper
New Orleans gets home court
New Orleans is without Trey Murphy III and Bennedict Mathurin

OutBrooklyn: Michael Porter Jr. (F); New Orleans: Trey Murphy III (F), Dejounte Murray (G), Bennedict Mathurin (G), Trendon Watford (F), Bryce McGowens (G)

OfficialsZach Zarba, John Butler, Scott Twardoski

Ref noteZarba slow to call technicals: 0.56 a game vs 0.81 league (212 in 378 games). Zarba calls traveling less often: 1.13 a game vs 1.44 league (426 in 378 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Herbert JonesUnder 1.5 steals64%LOSS
Day'Ron SharpeUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
Jeremiah FearsUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN

2 more props

Keon EllisUnder 1.5 threes made61%LOSS
Zion WilliamsonUnder 1.5 steals60%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Recent games: Brooklyn 2-3, New Orleans 2-3 over their last five
New Orleans is led by Zion Williamson
We like New Orleans to win by more than the line

Official profiles: Zach Zarba, John Butler, Scott Twardoski

Zach ZarbaOfficial · 378 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: slow to call technicals, calls traveling less often.

Slow to call technicals: 0.56 a game vs 0.81 league (212 in 378 games).
Calls traveling less often: 1.13 a game vs 1.44 league (426 in 378 games).

Measure	Zarba	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.2	44.0	71 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.2	20.0	69 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.3	45.0	70 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.82	3.23	73 of 73
Technicals per game	0.56	0.81	73 of 73
Traveling per game	1.13	1.44	70 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.32	1.33	44 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.34	1.43	56 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.8% (199/377)Home covered 49.9% (187/375)Favorite covered 51.1% (191/374)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

John ButlerOfficial · 273 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Butler	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.2	44.0	56 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.2	20.0	25 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.9	45.0	41 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.90	3.23	70 of 73
Technicals per game	0.74	0.81	58 of 73
Traveling per game	1.51	1.44	29 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.12	1.33	67 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.27	1.43	67 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.6% (135/272)Home covered 48.7% (132/271)Favorite covered 48.7% (132/271)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Scott TwardoskiOfficial · 274 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Twardoski	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.2	44.0	30 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.9	20.0	37 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.9	45.0	43 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.44	3.23	15 of 73
Technicals per game	0.69	0.81	66 of 73
Traveling per game	1.40	1.44	53 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.45	1.33	16 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.70	1.43	3 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.0% (142/273)Home covered 47.6% (129/271)Favorite covered 51.3% (139/271)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

9:00 PM ET 2 games

Wed Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET

Orlando123

Utah108

FINAL · we projected 115 – 112Projected total 227

SPREADUtah +4.555%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 216.565%WIN

57%

43%

Win chance · Orlando favored

OUR PICKUtah +4.5SPREADLOSS

55%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Orlando is without Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs; Utah has home court; Utah is without Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Orlando has a clear edge in roster quality over Utah
Utah gets home court
Both teams played last night

OutOrlando: Paolo Banchero (F), Noah Penda (F), Jonathan Isaac (F), Izaiyah Nelson (F); Utah: Lauri Markkanen (F), Jaren Jackson Jr. (F), Jusuf Nurkic (C), Jaxson Hayes (C), Trey Alexander (G)

OfficialsMarc Davis, Natalie Sago, Rodney Mott

PLAYER PROPS

Franz WagnerUnder 0.5 blocks64%WIN
Jaxson HayesUnder 1.5 blocks64%WIN
Josh GreenUnder 1.5 threes made62%

2 more props

Ace BaileyUnder 2.5 threes made62%LOSS
Darryn PetersonUnder 2.5 threes made60%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Orlando is without Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs
Utah is without Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic
Recent games: Orlando 1-4, Utah 0-5 over their last five

Official profiles: Marc Davis, Natalie Sago, Rodney Mott

Marc DavisOfficial · 367 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Davis	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.3	44.0	70 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.1	20.0	72 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.1	45.0	72 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.96	3.23	68 of 73
Technicals per game	0.85	0.81	26 of 73
Traveling per game	1.20	1.44	66 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.08	1.33	71 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.25	1.43	69 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.9% (190/366)Home covered 47.7% (174/365)Favorite covered 47.9% (175/365)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Natalie SagoOfficial · 318 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Sago	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.5	44.0	47 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	16 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.1	45.0	33 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.20	3.23	38 of 73
Technicals per game	0.87	0.81	21 of 73
Traveling per game	1.59	1.44	15 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.21	1.33	60 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.28	1.43	65 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.3% (153/317)Home covered 51.0% (160/314)Favorite covered 50.6% (159/314)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Rodney MottOfficial · 224 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Mott	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.0	44.0	13 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.8	20.0	48 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.5	45.0	24 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.32	3.23	24 of 73
Technicals per game	0.83	0.81	33 of 73
Traveling per game	1.71	1.44	5 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.44	1.33	20 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.53	1.43	18 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.7% (106/222)Home covered 52.2% (117/224)Favorite covered 50.9% (114/224)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Wed Nov 11 · 9:30 PM ET

Golden State108

Houston115

FINAL · we projected 109 – 116Projected total 225

SPREADGolden State +6.550%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 219.558%WIN

33%

67%

Win chance · Houston favored

OUR PICKGolden State +6.5SPREADLOSS

50%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Houston has a clear edge in roster quality over Golden State
Houston gets home court
Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis

OutGolden State: Jimmy Butler III (F), Stephen Curry (G), Moses Moody (G), Kristaps Porzingis (C), Brandon Williams (G); Houston: Fred VanVleet (G), Marcus Smart (G), Steven Adams (C), Clint Capela (C)

OfficialsMitchell Ervin, Eric Lewis, Brandon Adair

Ref noteAdair slow to call technicals: 0.62 a game vs 0.81 league (146 in 235 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Stephen CurryUnder 1.5 steals65%WIN
Alperen SengunUnder 1.5 blocks64%WIN
Fred VanVleetUnder 1.5 steals63%LOSS

2 more props

Tari EasonUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
Al HorfordUnder 1.5 threes made62%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Recent games: Golden State 5-0, Houston 3-2 over their last five
Houston is led by Alperen Sengun
We like Golden State getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says

Official profiles: Mitchell Ervin, Eric Lewis, Brandon Adair

Mitchell ErvinOfficial · 343 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Ervin	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.8	44.0	3 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	15 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.7	45.0	5 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.38	3.23	20 of 73
Technicals per game	0.81	0.81	42 of 73
Traveling per game	1.59	1.44	16 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.79	1.33	1 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.87	1.43	1 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.1% (188/341)Home covered 49.6% (169/341)Favorite covered 48.1% (163/339)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Eric LewisOfficial · 153 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Lewis	League	Rank
Calls per game	47.4	44.0	1 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	11 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	47.7	45.0	1 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.68	3.23	2 of 73
Technicals per game	0.84	0.81	30 of 73
Traveling per game	1.53	1.44	24 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.62	1.33	3 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.69	1.43	4 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.0% (79/149)Home covered 51.3% (78/152)Favorite covered 46.1% (70/152)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Brandon AdairOfficial · 235 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: slow to call technicals.

Slow to call technicals: 0.62 a game vs 0.81 league (146 in 235 games).

Measure	Adair	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.0	44.0	72 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.5	20.0	63 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.3	45.0	71 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.93	3.23	69 of 73
Technicals per game	0.62	0.81	71 of 73
Traveling per game	1.50	1.44	30 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.34	1.33	39 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.42	1.43	39 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 41.9% (98/234)Home covered 47.4% (110/232)Favorite covered 49.4% (114/231)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

10:00 PM ET 1 game

Wed Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City108

Portland118

FINAL · we projected 112 – 114Projected total 226

SPREADOklahoma City +2.551%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 224.552%WIN

44%

56%

Win chance · Portland favored

OUR PICKOklahoma City +2.5SPREADLOSS

51%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe and Ja Morant; Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Portland and Oklahoma City are closely matched on paper
Portland gets home court
Both teams played last night

OutOklahoma City: Chet Holmgren (C), Jalen Williams (G), Cason Wallace (G), Jaylin Williams (F), Thomas Sorber (C); Portland: Shaedon Sharpe (G), Ja Morant (G), Vit Krejci (G)

OfficialsBen Taylor, Nate Green, Sha'Rae Mitchell

Ref noteMitchell slow to call technicals: 0.58 a game vs 0.81 league (72 in 124 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Isaiah HartensteinUnder 1.5 steals65%LOSS
Bennett StirtzUnder 2.5 rebounds65%WIN
Jrue HolidayUnder 2.5 threes made62%LOSS

2 more props

Alex CarusoUnder 1.5 threes made61%LOSS
Deni AvdijaUnder 7.5 rebounds60%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace
Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe and Ja Morant
Recent games: Oklahoma City 4-1, Portland 3-2 over their last five

Official profiles: Ben Taylor, Nate Green, Sha'Rae Mitchell

Ben TaylorOfficial · 280 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Taylor	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.8	44.0	15 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.5	20.0	60 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.9	45.0	39 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.61	3.23	4 of 73
Technicals per game	0.88	0.81	18 of 73
Traveling per game	1.48	1.44	35 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.31	1.33	46 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.32	1.43	58 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.1% (147/277)Home covered 51.1% (142/278)Favorite covered 54.7% (152/278)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Nate GreenOfficial · 219 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Green	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.7	44.0	44 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.9	20.0	40 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.9	45.0	42 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.00	3.23	64 of 73
Technicals per game	0.89	0.81	16 of 73
Traveling per game	1.31	1.44	59 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.47	1.33	15 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.31	1.43	63 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.9% (100/218)Home covered 46.6% (102/219)Favorite covered 43.4% (95/219)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Sha'Rae MitchellOfficial · 124 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: slow to call technicals.

Slow to call technicals: 0.58 a game vs 0.81 league (72 in 124 games).

Measure	Mitchell	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.3	44.0	54 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.4	20.0	18 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.6	45.0	21 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.06	3.23	56 of 73
Technicals per game	0.58	0.81	72 of 73
Traveling per game	1.42	1.44	50 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.29	1.33	48 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.32	1.43	57 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.0% (64/123)Home covered 50.8% (63/124)Favorite covered 58.1% (72/124)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.