BetSharpr

Our model rates each club from its full regular season, leans on the two starting pitchers, and gives the home club its usual edge. The percent is how sure the model is that our side wins. A game becomes a top pick only when that confidence reaches 58% — playoff games are mostly coin flips, so many days none qualify (at most 2 a day). It does not see bullpen usage in October, so treat it as a guide. Prop bets are the ones our player model rates most likely to hit, leaving out any where it and the sportsbooks disagree too much to trust. In the side-by-side table, a pitcher is hot when his ERA the last two weeks is a full run better than his season ERA (cold when a run worse), and hot bats are hitters' last 7 games (HR is home runs, TB is total bases). The projected score is rebuilt from the win chance so the two agree; the win chance has been checked against four seasons of results. Each game has up to three separate reads from that one projected score: the winner, the run line and the total, the last two compared with the posted number when one is out and locked with the pick. Run-line and total chances come from how far baseball results scatter around a projection, read straight off that curve so the three chances always agree with each other. The total read is a light lean: our projected total has not beaten a flat league average over four seasons.