This week's college football games involving a Top 25 team, with our spread pick for each. Our Top 25 blends the CBS, AP and Coaches rankings.
BETA: this college model is still being tested. Across every college game it has picked this season it is 72-80-2 against the line, about a coin flip. The Top 25 games below are a small slice of that, so treat these picks as a work in progress, not a strong lean.
OUR RECORD every graded pick, wins and losses
Last week (Week 5)
10-4
71.4% wins
2026 season
25-18
58.1% wins
THIS SATURDAY'S TOP PICKS 4 picks · record 25-18 (58.1%) · 2026 Top 25 picks vs the closing line (since Week 3)
18Iowa @ Washington
Fri Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET
Iowa +3SPREAD
Our power numbers like Iowa at this line; taken even with a tough road crowd for Iowa.
- Out: Washington
- C. Christian (S), J. Limar (RB), Q. Carr (RB)
- Records
- Iowa 4-1 · Washington 3-2
Trust score · High80
Iowa State @ 8BYU
Fri Oct 9 · 10:15 PM ET
Iowa State +10.5SPREAD
Our power numbers like Iowa State at this line; BYU may be looking ahead to a ranked opponent next week.
- Out: Iowa State
- C. Crawford (DL), C. Pabst (WR), J. Bailey (WR), J. Singletary (CB)
- Out: BYU
- A. Gentry (OG), L. Martin (RB), R. Damuni (S), S. Esera (LB), S. Moa (RB)
Trust score · Moderate60
9LSU @ Kentucky
Sat Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Kentucky +9.5SPREAD
Our power numbers like Kentucky at this line; home field.
- Out: LSU
- D. Spears (S), P. Wright III (WR)
- Out: Kentucky
- D. Miller (WR), L. Watkins (TE), T. Mizell (RB)
Trust score · High80
2Georgia @ 6Alabama
Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET
Alabama -1.5SPREAD
Our power numbers like Alabama at this line; home field.
- Out: Georgia
- D. Dowdell (RB)
- Records
- Georgia 5-0 · Alabama 5-0
Trust score · High90
EVERY GAME 20 on the board · our pick for each
TOP PICKFri Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
18Iowa
@
Washington
OUR PICKIowa +3
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Iowa at this line; taken even with a tough road crowd for Iowa.
- Out: Washington
- C. Christian (S), J. Limar (RB), Q. Carr (RB)
- Records
- Iowa 4-1 · Washington 3-2
Trust score · High80
TOP PICKFri Oct 9 · 10:15 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Iowa State
@
8BYU
OUR PICKIowa State +10.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Iowa State at this line; BYU may be looking ahead to a ranked opponent next week.
- Out: Iowa State
- C. Crawford (DL), C. Pabst (WR), J. Bailey (WR), J. Singletary (CB)
- Out: BYU
- A. Gentry (OG), L. Martin (RB), R. Damuni (S), S. Esera (LB), S. Moa (RB)
- Records
- Iowa State 3-2 · BYU 4-0
Trust score · Moderate60
Sat Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
7Indiana
@
Nebraska
OUR PICKIndiana -7.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Indiana at this line; taken even with a tough road crowd for Indiana.
- Out: Indiana
- L. Bond (WR)
- Out: Nebraska
- L. Miles (WR)
- Records
- Indiana 5-0 · Nebraska 5-0
Trust score · Moderate40
Sat Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Texas A&M
@
14Missouri
OUR PICKTexas A&M +3.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Texas A&M at this line.
- Out: Texas A&M
- M. Williams (WR), T. Bussey (WR), T. Riden Jr. (RB)
- Out: Missouri
- A. Hardy (RB), C. Green (OG), D. Smith (DL), G. Hoffman (TE), J. Brady (WR), L. Kitchen (DL)
- Records
- Texas A&M 3-2 · Missouri 4-1
Trust score · Moderate50
Sat Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
UCF
@
21Oklahoma State
OUR PICKUCF +9.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like UCF at this line; Oklahoma State in a letdown spot after an upset win; Oklahoma State may be looking ahead to a ranked opponent next week.
- Out: UCF
- L. Carter (LB)
- Out: Oklahoma State
- O. Hammond (TE)
- Records
- UCF 3-2 · Oklahoma State 3-1
Trust score · Low10
Sat Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
North Carolina
@
23Pittsburgh
OUR PICKPittsburgh -4.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Pittsburgh at this line; home field.
- Out: North Carolina
- C. Warren (WR), J. Warren (TE), J. Washington (TE), K. Chapman (WR)
- Out: Pittsburgh
- M. Knight (WR)
- Records
- North Carolina 2-2 · Pittsburgh 5-0
Trust score · Low30
Sat Oct 10 · 12:45 PM ET
AWAYHOME
South Carolina
@
16Florida
OUR PICKSouth Carolina +13.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like South Carolina at this line; taken even with a tough road crowd for South Carolina.
- Out: South Carolina
- D. Stewart (DL), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR)
- Out: Florida
- D. Groce (WR), K. Jimenez (RB)
- Records
- South Carolina 2-3 · Florida 4-1
Trust score · Moderate40
Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
10Ole Miss
@
Vanderbilt
OUR PICKVanderbilt +9.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Vanderbilt at this line; home field.
- Out: Ole Miss
- K. Lacy (RB)
- Out: Vanderbilt
- K. Smith (WR)
- Records
- Ole Miss 3-1 · Vanderbilt 3-2
Trust score · Low30
Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
19UCLA
@
13Oregon
OUR PICKOregon -11.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Oregon at this line; home field.
- Out: UCLA
- M. Matthews (WR)
- Out: Oregon
- J. McClellan (WR)
- Records
- UCLA 4-0 · Oregon 3-1
Trust score · Low30
Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
20Houston
@
Kansas State
OUR PICKNo pick
Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Out: Houston
- E. Noel (K), J. Hebert (RB), J. Strozier Jr. (WR), L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)
- Out: Kansas State
- J. Pastore (OG), W. Anciaux (TE)
- Records
- Houston 4-1 · Kansas State 3-1
Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
24Duke
@
Georgia Tech
OUR PICKGeorgia Tech +7
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Georgia Tech at this line; home field.
- Out: Duke
- L. Gardner (QB), Q. Johnson (WR)
- Out: Georgia Tech
- A. Hoffler (DL), C. Jean-Noel (WR), E. Mackenny (OG), J. Walker (DL), S. Jones (DL), S. Riley (S)
- Records
- Duke 4-0 · Georgia Tech 1-3
Trust score · Low30
Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
1Texas
@
Oklahoma
OUR PICKOklahoma +7.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Oklahoma at this line.
- Out: Oklahoma
- T. Harris (WR)
- Records
- Texas 4-0 · Oklahoma 2-2
- Site
- Neutral field
Trust score · Moderate60
Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Stanford
@
3Notre Dame
OUR PICKStanford +37.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Stanford at this line; Notre Dame may be looking ahead to a ranked opponent next week; taken even with a tough road crowd for Stanford.
- Out: Stanford
- J. Galvan (LB)
- Out: Notre Dame
- Q. Porter (WR)
- Records
- Stanford 2-3 · Notre Dame 5-0
Trust score · Low30
Sat Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Maryland
@
5Ohio State
OUR PICKMaryland +34.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Maryland at this line; taken even with a tough road crowd for Maryland.
- Out: Maryland
- L. Johnson (DL), Z. Mathis (LB)
- Out: Ohio State
- T. Rogers (RB)
- Records
- Maryland 2-3 · Ohio State 4-1
Trust score · Low30
Sat Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET
AWAYHOME
15Tennessee
@
Arkansas
OUR PICKArkansas +13.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Arkansas at this line; Tennessee may be looking ahead to a ranked opponent next week; home field.
- Out: Tennessee
- J. Harmon (LB), Q. Moss (CB), W. Moe Jr. (OG)
- Out: Arkansas
- M. Lassiter (TE)
- Records
- Tennessee 4-1 · Arkansas 2-3
Trust score · Low30
TOP PICKSat Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
9LSU
@
Kentucky
OUR PICKKentucky +9.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Kentucky at this line; home field.
- Out: LSU
- D. Spears (S), P. Wright III (WR)
- Out: Kentucky
- D. Miller (WR), L. Watkins (TE), T. Mizell (RB)
- Records
- LSU 4-1 · Kentucky 4-1
Trust score · High80
TOP PICKSat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
2Georgia
@
6Alabama
OUR PICKAlabama -1.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Alabama at this line; home field.
- Out: Georgia
- D. Dowdell (RB)
- Records
- Georgia 5-0 · Alabama 5-0
Trust score · High90
Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
17USC
@
Penn State
OUR PICKNo pick
Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Out: USC
- C. Simms (WR), K. O'Connor (OG)
- Out: Penn State
- C. Rosa (K), K. Howard (WR), M. Granville (DL)
- Records
- USC 5-1 · Penn State 3-2
Sat Oct 10 · 10:15 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Kansas
@
12Utah
OUR PICKNo pick
Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Out: Kansas
- C. Ballard (QB), C. Moses (TE), J. Mason (QB), J. Thurman (RB), K. Amachree (RB), Y. Willis (RB)
- Records
- Kansas 2-2 · Utah 4-0
Sat Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
25Boise State
@
Fresno State
OUR PICKFresno State +6.5
SPREAD
Our power numbers like Fresno State at this line; home field.
- Out: Fresno State
- B. Ramirez (RB)
- Records
- Boise State 4-1 · Fresno State 4-1
Trust score · Moderate40
TOP 25 CBS, AP and Coaches rankings blended
| Rank | School | Record | This week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | 4-0 | vs Oklahoma |
| 2 | Georgia | 5-0 | at Alabama |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 5-0 | vs Stanford |
| 4 | Miami | 5-0 | Off this week |
| 5 | Ohio State | 4-1 | vs Maryland |
| 6 | Alabama | 5-0 | vs Georgia |
| 7 | Indiana | 5-0 | at Nebraska |
| 8 | BYU | 4-0 | vs Iowa State |
| 9 | LSU | 4-1 | at Kentucky |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 3-1 | at Vanderbilt |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | Off this week |
| 12 | Utah | 4-0 | vs Kansas |
| 13 | Oregon | 3-1 | vs UCLA |
| 14 | Missouri | 4-1 | vs Texas A&M |
| 15 | Tennessee | 4-1 | at Arkansas |
| 16 | Florida | 4-1 | vs South Carolina |
| 17 | USC | 5-1 | at Penn State |
| 18 | Iowa | 4-1 | at Washington |
| 19 | UCLA | 4-0 | at Oregon |
| 20 | Houston | 4-1 | at Kansas State |
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 3-1 | vs UCF |
| 22 | SMU | 4-1 | Off this week |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 5-0 | vs North Carolina |
| 24 | Duke | 4-0 | at Georgia Tech |
| 25 | Boise State | 4-1 | at Fresno State |
WEEK BY WEEK Top 25 picks vs the closing line
| Week | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | 8-3 | 73% |
| Week 4 | 7-11 | 39% |
| Week 5 | 10-4 | 71% |
RECENT RESULTS our latest graded top picks
| Oct 3 | Indiana @ Rutgers | Rutgers +24.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 3 | McNeese @ LSU | McNeese +53.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Utah State @ Boise State | Utah State +19.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Texas Tech @ Colorado | Texas Tech -13.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Miami @ Clemson | Clemson +14 | LOSS |
| Oct 3 | BYU @ TCU | TCU +5.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 3 | Florida @ Missouri | Missouri +5.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Auburn @ Tennessee | Tennessee -6.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Ohio State @ Iowa | Iowa +14.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 3 | Vanderbilt @ Georgia | Vanderbilt +25.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | UCF @ Houston | UCF +10.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Boston College @ SMU | Boston College +21 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Alabama @ Mississippi State | Alabama -5.5 | WIN |
| Oct 3 | Notre Dame @ North Carolina | North Carolina +21 | WIN |
| Sep 26 | Missouri State @ SMU | Missouri State +30.5 | WIN |
Picks come from our own power numbers for every FBS team, built from this season's and last season's scores and adjusted for rest, letdown and lookahead spots and a starting quarterback who is out. When our number and the betting line disagree, we take the side our number likes. The trust score (10-100) is how much we trust that number on a game: it is highest when our number sits close to the betting line and falls as they drift apart, because big gaps have usually meant our number was wrong. It is not a win chance. Top picks are the four games we trust most. Picks are graded against the closing line, using what we showed before kickoff.