BetSharpr

Updated Oct 25, 7:33 PM ET
WEEKLY CARD: MOICANO VS. NOLAN · SAT OCT 31
OUR RECORD every graded pick, wins and losses
Pay-per-view cards · top picks
3-1
75.0% wins
Weekly cards · top picks
3-4
42.9% wins
PROP PICKS none posted right nowprops record 5-17 (22.7%) · Finish picks
No games today. Next up: Saturday Oct 31 (13 games). Use the day bar above to look ahead.
RECENT RESULTS our latest graded top picks
Oct 24Pay-per-view card: Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan KunievAlexander Volkov to winWIN
Oct 24Pay-per-view card: Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev to winWIN
Oct 24Pay-per-view card: Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob MalkounJacob Malkoun to winLOSS
Oct 24Pay-per-view card: Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle CaliariIasmin Lucindo to winWIN
Oct 17Weekly card: Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine JasudaviciusErin Blanchfield to winLOSS
Oct 17Weekly card: Kyle Nelson vs Cristian PerezCristian Perez to winWIN
Oct 17Weekly card: Chad Anheliger vs Steven KoslowSteven Koslow to winWIN
Oct 17Weekly card: Melissa Croden vs Chelsea ChandlerMelissa Croden to winLOSS
Oct 10Weekly card: Julius Walker vs Gerald MeerschaertJulius Walker to winWIN
Oct 10Weekly card: Felipe Franco vs Brendson RibeiroFelipe Franco to winLOSS
Oct 10Weekly card: Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ HarrisRJ Harris to winLOSS

Win chance is our own model, nothing else: fighter attributes like reach, height, age, stance, pro record and finishing record carry real weight alongside each fighter's top-level results and round-by-round stats, and we fill in attributes for newcomers from public fighter pages. We no longer simply side with the betting favorite, and betting prices are not part of our numbers. KO, submission and decision chances add up to each fighter's win chance. Each fight also gets a finish pick: the exact result we think is most likely, graded on its own record. Striking, grappling and cardio are described against the rest of the roster (elite = top 10%). Red corner is listed first. Picks lock on fight day, after the weigh-ins, and only locked picks count. Top picks have a confidence bar to clear, not a quota: we tested the model against the last year of fights and only flag a fight when its confidence sits in the range where the model's stated number has actually held up -- at most four per card, surest first, and a card where nothing clears the bar has none. Prospect cards (the Tuesday tryout shows) are posted for fun only: the fighters have no top-level history to rate, so those picks are never top picks and are not counted in the record. The record is weekly and pay-per-view cards only.