Pro basketball preseason picks from our roster-built model, so we can start building a record before the season tips off October 21.
Preseason is a warm-up: starters often sit or play only a few minutes, so these games are close to a coin flip. This model is in BETA and has no track record yet.
TODAY'S TOP PICKS 2 picks
New York @ Philadelphia
Mon Oct 5 · 7:00 PM ET
Philadelphia +3.5SPREAD
Philadelphia has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
Confidence72%
Los Angeles (L) @ Sacramento
Mon Oct 5 · 10:00 PM ET
Los Angeles (L) -5.5SPREAD
Los Angeles (L) has the stronger roster on paper.
Confidence65%
TOP PROP BETS 6 props
Devin Booker Phoenix
Phoenix @ Detroit
Under 1.5 threes made
Our projection is below the line.
Confidence76%
Anthony Edwards Minnesota
Minnesota @ Milwaukee
Under 2.5 threes made
Our projection is below the line.
Confidence74%
Cade Cunningham Detroit
Phoenix @ Detroit
Under 3.5 rebounds
Our projection is below the line.
Confidence69%
Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia
New York @ Philadelphia
Over 9.5 points
Our projection is above the line; listed day-to-day, so check he plays.
Confidence62%
Luka Doncic Los Angeles (L)
Los Angeles (L) @ Sacramento
Over 14.5 points
Our projection is above the line.
Confidence62%
LeBron James Philadelphia
New York @ Philadelphia
Over 9 points
Our projection is above the line; first games with a new team; listed day-to-day, so check he plays.
Confidence60%
EVERY GAME 20 on the board · our pick for each
Mon Oct 5 · 7:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Memphis
@
Atlanta
OUR PICKAtlanta -3.5
SPREAD
Atlanta has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Out
- Atlanta: Henri Veesaar (C)
TOP PROPS
- CJ McCollum Over 8.5 points 59%
- Jalen Johnson Over 10 points 52%
Confidence50%
Mon Oct 5 · 7:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Phoenix
@
Detroit
OUR PICKDetroit -2.5
SPREAD
Detroit has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Out
- Phoenix: Mark Williams (C)
TOP PROPS
- Devin Booker Under 1.5 threes made 76%
- Cade Cunningham Under 3.5 rebounds 69%
- Miles Bridges Under 9.5 points 55%
Confidence63%
TOP PICKMon Oct 5 · 7:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
New York
@
Philadelphia
OUR PICKPhiladelphia +3.5
SPREAD
Philadelphia has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
TOP PROPS
- Tyrese Maxey Over 9.5 points 62%
- LeBron James Over 9 points 60%
- Jaylen Brown Over 0.5 threes made 59%
- Mikal Bridges Under 7.5 points 58%
Confidence72%
Mon Oct 5 · 8:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Minnesota
@
Milwaukee
OUR PICKMilwaukee +5.5
SPREAD
We expect a closer game than the line says; Minnesota without Donte DiVincenzo; home court.
- Out
- Minnesota: Donte DiVincenzo (G)
TOP PROPS
- Anthony Edwards Under 2.5 threes made 74%
- LaMelo Ball Over 10.5 points 58%
- Tyler Herro Under 11.5 points 56%
Confidence61%
TOP PICKMon Oct 5 · 10:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Los Angeles (L)
@
Sacramento
OUR PICKLos Angeles (L) -5.5
SPREAD
Los Angeles (L) has the stronger roster on paper.
TOP PROPS
- Luka Doncic Over 14.5 points 62%
- Zach LaVine Under 11.5 points 60%
- Domantas Sabonis Under 9.5 points 60%
- Walker Kessler Under 7.5 points 58%
Confidence65%
Tue Oct 6 · 7:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Brooklyn
@
Charlotte
OUR PICKCharlotte -4.5
SPREAD
Charlotte has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence64%
Tue Oct 6 · 8:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
New Orleans
@
Oklahoma City
OUR PICKOklahoma City -4.5
SPREAD
Oklahoma City has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence83%
Tue Oct 6 · 9:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Denver
@
Utah
OUR PICKDenver -1.5
SPREAD
Denver has the stronger roster on paper.
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence60%
Tue Oct 6 · 10:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Los Angeles (L)
@
Golden State
OUR PICKLos Angeles (L) to win
MONEYLINE
Los Angeles (L) has the stronger roster on paper; Golden State without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody; despite Los Angeles (L) playing the night before.
- Out
- Golden State: Jimmy Butler III (F), Moses Moody (G)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence58%
Wed Oct 7 · 7:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Minnesota
@
Indiana
OUR PICKMinnesota to win
MONEYLINE
Minnesota has the stronger roster on paper; even without Donte DiVincenzo; neutral floor.
- Out
- Minnesota: Donte DiVincenzo (G); Indiana: Johnny Furphy (G)
- Where
- Hilton Coliseum (neutral floor)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence57%
Wed Oct 7 · 8:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Orlando
@
Memphis
OUR PICKOrlando to win
MONEYLINE
Orlando has the stronger roster on paper.
- Out
- Orlando: Izaiyah Nelson (F)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence60%
Wed Oct 7 · 8:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Milwaukee
@
Oklahoma City
OUR PICKOklahoma City to win
MONEYLINE
Oklahoma City has the stronger roster on paper; home court; despite Oklahoma City playing the night before.
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence90%
Wed Oct 7 · 8:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Phoenix
@
Chicago
OUR PICKChicago to win
MONEYLINE
Chicago has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Out
- Phoenix: Mark Williams (C)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence58%
Wed Oct 7 · 10:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Golden State
@
Portland
OUR PICKPortland to win
MONEYLINE
Portland has the stronger roster on paper; Golden State without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody; home court; Golden State played the night before; even without Shaedon Sharpe.
- Out
- Golden State: Jimmy Butler III (F), Moses Moody (G); Portland: Shaedon Sharpe (G)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence72%
Thu Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Boston
@
Cleveland
OUR PICKCleveland to win
MONEYLINE
Cleveland has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence60%
Thu Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
New Orleans
@
Miami
OUR PICKMiami to win
MONEYLINE
Miami has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Out
- Miami: Keshad Johnson (F)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence65%
Thu Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Philadelphia
@
Brooklyn
OUR PICKPhiladelphia to win
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia has the stronger roster on paper.
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence68%
Thu Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Washington
@
New York
OUR PICKNew York to win
MONEYLINE
New York has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Out
- Washington: Jamir Watkins (G), Tristan Vukcevic (F)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence76%
Thu Oct 8 · 8:00 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Atlanta
@
San Antonio
OUR PICKSan Antonio to win
MONEYLINE
San Antonio has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Out
- Atlanta: Henri Veesaar (C); San Antonio: Jayden Quaintance (F)
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence76%
Thu Oct 8 · 10:30 PM ET
AWAYHOME
Sacramento
@
Los Angeles (L)
OUR PICKLos Angeles (L) to win
MONEYLINE
Los Angeles (L) has the stronger roster on paper; home court.
- Note
- Early look. The pick locks on game day and may change before then.
Confidence88%
The model rates each team from its current roster and who is out injured, then adds home court and rest. When a spread is posted we pick the side the model likes against it, and Confidence is the model's chance that side covers; with no spread yet, it is the model's chance that team wins. Picks lock on game day before tip-off, and the 2 to 4 games the model is surest about that day are the top picks. Player props come from our separate player model: up to 5 per game, only the ones it rates most likely to hit, locked before tip-off. Confidence on a prop is the model's chance it hits.