OUR RECORD every graded pick, wins and losses
Week 7 top picks
1-3
25.0% wins
Season top picks
16-9-3
64.0% wins
Season all spread picks
28-19-4
59.6% wins
TODAY'S TOP PICKS 3 picks · record 16-9-3 (64.0%) · 2026 top picks
TOP PICK
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore +1.5SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like Baltimore more than the betting line does; home field for Baltimore.
Cincinnati 59% to winFINAL
Cincinnati 35 · Baltimore 13
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
Input quality (not a win chance)78
TOP PICK
Indianapolis @ Minnesota
Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota -6.5SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like Minnesota more than the betting line does; Indianapolis has more key players out; home field for Minnesota; Minnesota is better rested.
Minnesota 76% to winFINAL
Indianapolis 10 · Minnesota 16
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
Input quality (not a win chance)76
TOP PICK
New York (G) @ Houston
Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
New York (G) +10.5SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like New York (G) more than the betting line does.
Houston 83% to winFINAL
New York (G) 27 · Houston 21
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
Input quality (not a win chance)72
EVERY GAME TODAY 12 on the board · tap a game for the full breakdown
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Pittsburgh23.3
–
20.1New Orleans
SPREAD
Pittsburgh -3
51% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 43.5
50% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Pittsburgh, with the game landing under the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 9:30 AM ET
Pittsburgh
@
New Orleans
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKPittsburgh -3
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Pittsburgh more than the betting line does; New Orleans has more key players out; neutral site, so no home field.
FINAL
Pittsburgh 16 · New Orleans 10
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- We make Pittsburgh the more likely winner (63%), projecting about 23-20 (Pittsburgh 23, New Orleans 20).
- Neutral site, so no home-field edge for either side.
Input quality (not a win chance)71
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Miami18.6
–
21.1New York (J)
SPREAD
Miami +4.5
58% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 39.5
51% chance to hit
We expect New York (J) to win a close one, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Miami
@
New York (J)
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKMiami +4.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Miami more than the betting line does; New York (J) has more key players out; Miami is better rested.
FINAL
Miami 28 · New York (J) 25
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- We make New York (J) the more likely winner (60%), projecting about 19-21 (Miami 19, New York (J) 21).
- Miami has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
Total, model read: Over 38.5
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Total, model read
- Over 38.5
- Out
- Miami: J. Tolbert (WR), C. Godrick (OT), D. Campbell (G), R. Beal Jr. (DE), W. Gay Jr. (LB), D. Baker Jr. (CB), M. Dial Jr. (CB), R. Taylor (CB), and 5 more · New York (J): B. Hall (RB), K. Nwangwu (RB), M. Mitchell (OT), D. Parham (G), J. Ossai (DE), T. Baron (DE), J. Heflin (DT), J. Brownlee Jr. (CB), and 10 more
Input quality (not a win chance)63
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Cincinnati24.5
–
22.3Baltimore
SPREAD
Baltimore +1.5
47% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 46.5
51% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Cincinnati by a hair, with the game landing over the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati
@
Baltimore
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKBaltimore +1.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like Baltimore more than the betting line does; home field for Baltimore.
FINAL
Cincinnati 35 · Baltimore 13
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- We make Cincinnati the more likely winner (59%), projecting about 24-22 (Cincinnati 24, Baltimore 22).
- Cincinnati has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
Total, model read: Under 51.5
Loud stadium for visiting teams
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Total, model read
- Under 51.5
- Out
- Cincinnati: M. Hinton (OT), C. Lew (C), S. Stewart (DE), L. Robinson (DT), R. Yeast (S), A. Iosivas (WR), T. Hudson (TE), B. Parker II (OT), and 3 more · Baltimore: L. Jackson (QB), E. Sarratt (WR), A. Vorhees (G), B. Washington Jr. (DT), J. Hawkins (S), S. Thompson (QB), A. Randall (RB), D. Smythe (TE), and 7 more
Input quality (not a win chance)78
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Cleveland19.7
–
17.1Tennessee
OVER / UNDER
Over 36.5
51% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Cleveland by a hair, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland
@
Tennessee
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNo pick
Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.
FINAL
Cleveland 27 · Tennessee 24
✓ Moneyline✓ Total
- We make Cleveland the more likely winner (61%), projecting about 20-17 (Cleveland 20, Tennessee 17).
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
San Francisco26.3
–
23.6Atlanta
SPREAD
San Francisco +1.5
67% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 49.5
51% chance to hit
We expect San Francisco to win a close one, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco
@
Atlanta
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKSan Francisco +1.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like San Francisco more than the betting line does.
FINAL
San Francisco 20 · Atlanta 29
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- We make San Francisco the more likely winner (61%), projecting about 26-24 (San Francisco 26, Atlanta 24).
Total, model read: Over 48.5
Full breakdown
- Total, model read
- Over 48.5
Input quality (not a win chance)59
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Tampa Bay20.7
–
23.4Carolina
OVER / UNDER
Under 44.5
51% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Carolina by a hair, with the game landing under the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay
@
Carolina
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNo pick
Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.
FINAL
Tampa Bay 43 · Carolina 13
✗ Moneyline✗ Total
- We make Carolina the more likely winner (61%), projecting about 21-23 (Tampa Bay 21, Carolina 23).
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Indianapolis17.1
–
24.3Minnesota
SPREAD
Minnesota -6.5
53% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 41.5
50% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Minnesota, with the game landing under the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis
@
Minnesota
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKMinnesota -6.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like Minnesota more than the betting line does; Indianapolis has more key players out; home field for Minnesota; Minnesota is better rested.
FINAL
Indianapolis 10 · Minnesota 16
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- We make Minnesota the more likely winner (76%), projecting about 17-24 (Indianapolis 17, Minnesota 24).
- Minnesota has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
Out: Indianapolis: R. Leonard (QB), A. Gould (WR), T. Warren (TE), D. Tucker (G), B. Boettcher (LB), C. Allen (LB), S. Gardner (CB), A. Pierce (WR), and 5 more · Minnesota: M. Brosmer (QB), D. Claiborne (RB), C. Tiernan (OT), E. Williams (DE), C. Demmings (CB), J. Thomas (S), J. Oliver (TE), D. Jackson (G), and 3 more
One of the loudest stadiums in pro football
Full breakdown
- Out
- Indianapolis: R. Leonard (QB), A. Gould (WR), T. Warren (TE), D. Tucker (G), B. Boettcher (LB), C. Allen (LB), S. Gardner (CB), A. Pierce (WR), and 5 more · Minnesota: M. Brosmer (QB), D. Claiborne (RB), C. Tiernan (OT), E. Williams (DE), C. Demmings (CB), J. Thomas (S), J. Oliver (TE), D. Jackson (G), and 3 more
Input quality (not a win chance)76
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
New York (G)16.9
–
26.5Houston
SPREAD
New York (G) +10.5
54% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 42.5
52% chance to hit
We expect Houston to win in a blowout, with the game landing over the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
New York (G)
@
Houston
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNew York (G) +10.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like New York (G) more than the betting line does.
FINAL
New York (G) 27 · Houston 21
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- We make Houston the more likely winner (83%), projecting about 17-26 (New York (G) 17, Houston 26).
Total, model read: Over 42.5
Full breakdown
- Total, model read
- Over 42.5
- Out
- New York (G): J. Haener (QB), T. Johnson (TE), M. Mbow (OT), J. Sills (G), G. Newsome II (CB), N. Reed (CB), J. Holland (S), J. Dart (QB), and 11 more · Houston: D. Montgomery (RB), M. Klein (TE), B. Fisher (OT), N. Thomas (OT), F. Nwaiwu (G), E. Speed (LB), J. Pitre (S), R. Blankenship (S), and 11 more
Input quality (not a win chance)72
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Denver23.7
–
19.4Arizona
OVER / UNDER
Under 43.5
51% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Denver, with the game landing under the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET
Denver
@
Arizona
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNo pick
Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.
FINAL
Denver 30 · Arizona 16
✓ Moneyline✗ Total
- We make Denver the more likely winner (67%), projecting about 24-19 (Denver 24, Arizona 19).
- Denver has the rest edge (10 days vs 7).
STATS
- PlayerTrey McBride has had 7+ catches in 8 straight games (since Week 17, 2025).
- QuarterbackBo Nix is 22-2 in his starts as a favorite (since 2024).
Full breakdown
STATS All 10 stats →
- HomeArizona has lost 9 of its last 10 home games (since 2025).
- QuarterbackJacoby Brissett is 12-41 in his starts as an underdog (since 2017).
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Green Bay25
–
29.3Detroit
SPREAD
Detroit -3
55% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 55.5
54% chance to hit
We expect Detroit to win comfortably, with the game landing under the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET
Green Bay
@
Detroit
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKDetroit -3
SPREAD
Our team ratings like Detroit more than the betting line does; Green Bay has more key players out; home field for Detroit; Detroit is better rested.
- We make Detroit the more likely winner (67%), projecting about 25-29 (Green Bay 25, Detroit 29).
- Detroit has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
Total, model read: Under 54.5
STATS
- TotalsOvers are 9-1 in Detroit's last 10 games as a favorite (since 2025).
- KickerJake Bates has made 8 of 8 field goals (100%) this season, with a long of 54.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Total, model read
- Under 54.5
- Out
- Green Bay: L. Musgrave (TE), M. Parsons (DE), Z. Franklin (LB), C. Brooks (RB), J. Reed (WR), S. Moore (WR), T. Yassmin (TE), Z. Bako-Bewele (OT), and 6 more · Detroit: G. Manu (OT), K. Joseph (S), I. Pacheco (RB), K. Law (WR), T. Kennedy (WR), B. Bartch (G), P. Turner (DE), D. Clark (LB), and 3 more
STATS All 10 stats →
- RecordDetroit is 40-13 as a favorite since 2021.
- PlayerJahmyr Gibbs has scored a touchdown in 6 straight games (since Week 18, 2025).
Input quality (not a win chance)67
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Los Angeles (R)25.2
–
23Las Vegas
OVER / UNDER
Under 48.5
51% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Los Angeles (R) by a hair, with the game landing under the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles (R)
@
Las Vegas
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNo pick
Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.
- We make Los Angeles (R) the more likely winner (59%), projecting about 25-23 (Los Angeles (R) 25, Las Vegas 23).
STATS
- TotalsOvers are 9-1 in Los Angeles (R)'s last 10 road games (since 2025).
- RecordLas Vegas is 6-27 as an underdog since 2024.
Full breakdown
STATS All 10 stats →
- RecordLas Vegas has lost 9 of its last 10 games as a home underdog (since 2024).
- PlayerPuka Nacua has had 5+ catches in all of his last 10 games (since Week 16, 2025).
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Kansas City20.7
–
23.2Seattle
SPREAD
Kansas City +2.5
50% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 43.5
51% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Seattle by a hair, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET
Kansas City
@
Seattle
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKKansas City +2.5
SPREAD
Our team ratings like Kansas City more than the betting line does.
- We make Seattle the more likely winner (60%), projecting about 21-23 (Kansas City 21, Seattle 23).
- Seattle has the rest edge (10 days vs 7).
Total, model read: Over 43.5
Game-time forecast: 53°F, chance light rain, 52% chance of rain.One of the loudest stadiums in pro football
STATS
- HomeSeattle has won 9 of its last 10 home games (since 2025).
- DefenseErnest Jones has had 8+ tackles in 8 straight games (since the 2025 playoffs).
Top props (7)
TOP PROPS
- Sam Darnold (QB) Under 1.5 passing TDs 70%Defense rarely gives up passing scores.
- Sam Darnold (QB) Over 0.5 interceptions 66%Ball-hawking defense; turnover-prone.
- Cooper Kupp (WR) Over 24.5 receiving yards 61%Our projection is above the line.
- Noah Gray (TE) Over 16.5 receiving yards 63%Bigger role with a teammate out; likely chasing the game, more throws; efficient with his targets.
- Sam Darnold (QB) Under 227.5 passing yards 60%Tough pass defense; likely playing with a lead, fewer throws.
- Kenneth Walker III (RB) To score a touchdown 57%Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) To score a touchdown 46%Big role in the offense.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Seattle is missing 15 players (injured list or out).
- Total, model read
- Over 43.5
- Out
- Kansas City: R. Rice (WR), J. Moore (OT), O. Norman-Lott (DT), B. Smith (RB), J. Caldwell (WR), J. Holiday (WR), T. Thornton (WR), J. Michael Gyllenborg (TE), and 3 more · Seattle: D. Lock (QB), R. Henry Jr. (RB), Z. Charbonnet (RB), B. Stephens (G), C. Surratt (LB), C. O'Toole (LB), D. Thomas (LB), T. Arnold (CB), and 7 more
STATS All 10 stats →
- RecordSeattle is 24-5 as a favorite since 2024.
- DefenseNick Bolton has had 8+ tackles in 9 of his last 10 games (since Week 14, 2025).
Input quality (not a win chance)66
TOP PROP BETS 8 propsprops record 55-70 (44.0%) · Pro football props 2026
- Makai Lemon PhiladelphiaOver 37.5 receiving yards 72%Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET · Dallas @ PhiladelphiaBig role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; soft matchup in coverage.
- Sam Darnold SeattleUnder 1.5 passing TDs 70%Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET · Kansas City @ SeattleDefense rarely gives up passing scores.
- Sam Darnold SeattleOver 0.5 interceptions 66%Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET · Kansas City @ SeattleBall-hawking defense; turnover-prone.
Show 5 more props
- Dallas Goedert PhiladelphiaOver 48.5 receiving yards 63%Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET · Dallas @ PhiladelphiaBig role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; likely chasing the game, more throws.
- Ryan Flournoy DallasOver 32.5 receiving yards 62%Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET · Dallas @ PhiladelphiaBig role in the passing game.
- Jake Ferguson DallasOver 18.5 receiving yards 61%Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET · Dallas @ PhiladelphiaBig role in the passing game.
- Javonte Williams DallasTo score a touchdown 67%Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET · Dallas @ PhiladelphiaBig role in the offense; a high-scoring spot.
- Kenneth Walker III Kansas CityTo score a touchdown 57%Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET · Kansas City @ SeattleBig role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out.
STAT CORNER pro football stats for the games on this page All stats →
- QuarterbackBo Nix is 22-2 in his starts as a favorite (since 2024).
- PlayerJ.K. Dobbins has averaged 60.0 rushing yards over his last 10 games (since Week 7, 2025).
- PlayerBo Nix has averaged 200.3 passing yards over his last 10 starts (since Week 16, 2025).
- LeagueOvers are 49-48 in Thursday games (after Week 1) since 2021.
Week-by-week tables
WEEK BY WEEK 2026 season, graded against the line at posting
| Week | Top picks | All spread picks |
|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | 1-3-0 | 3-4-0 |
| Week 6 | 2-2-0 | 6-5-0 |
| Week 5 | 2-1-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-0-1 | 4-0-1 |
| Week 3 | 4-0-0 | 5-1-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-2-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Week 1 | 2-1-1 | 3-3-1 |
Recent results
RECENT RESULTS our latest graded top picks
| Oct 25 | Cincinnati @ Baltimore | Baltimore +1.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 25 | Indianapolis @ Minnesota | Minnesota -6.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 25 | New York (G) @ Houston | New York (G) +10.5 | WIN |
| Oct 22 | New England @ Chicago | New England +3 | LOSS |
| Oct 18 | Arizona @ Los Angeles (R) | Arizona +12.5 | WIN |
| Oct 18 | Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay +2.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 18 | Houston @ Jacksonville | Jacksonville +2.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 15 | Seattle @ Denver | Denver +2.5 | WIN |
| Oct 11 | Cincinnati @ Miami | Miami +7 | PUSH |
| Oct 11 | Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh -2.5 | WIN |
| Oct 11 | Philadelphia @ Jacksonville | Jacksonville -7.5 | LOSS |
| Oct 8 | Tampa Bay @ Dallas | Tampa Bay +9.5 | WIN |
| Oct 4 | Detroit @ Carolina | Carolina +4.5 | WIN |
| Oct 4 | Los Angeles (C) @ Seattle | Seattle -7 | PUSH |
| Oct 4 | Arizona @ New York (G) | New York (G) +2.5 | WIN |
Power rankings
POWER RANKINGS our own team ratings, with the move since a week ago · Week 7 games
| # | Team | Record | Week | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 4-3 | ▲ 5 | Lost 24-30 last game; defense climbed |
| 2 | Chicago | 5-2 | ▲ 7 | Won 30-24 last game; offense climbed |
Our own team ratings, built from player grades, are compared with the betting line, then adjusted for injuries, home field, rest and weather. A pick is made only when our read and the line disagree by a meaningful but not extreme amount. Top picks are the week's picks whose inputs clear our bar, up to four; a thin week can have fewer. A pick can change with injury and weather news until kickoff; the pick at kickoff is the one that counts, and its top-pick status is settled then too. Input quality measures how complete and settled the data behind a pick is; it is not a win chance. The spread or total is locked in when the pick is first posted, and the pick is graded against that number, not the closing line. Game totals are shown only as the model's read on the matchup and are not picks: they are not counted in the record. Prop picks come from our player projections against the posted line, and their percentage is our estimated chance the pick hits. Each game also shows our projected final score; its percentage is our model's chance the projected winner wins the game outright, not the chance the spread pick covers.