TUESDAY NOV 10 graded picks
Went 2-4 on the day
7:30 PM ET 2 games
TOP PICKTue Nov 10 · 7:30 PM ET
Milwaukee85
New York117
FINAL · we projected 110 – 121Projected total 231
SPREADMilwaukee +15.560%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 221.564%LOSS
Win chance · New York favored
OUR PICKMilwaukee +15.5SPREADLOSS
60%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- New York has a big edge in roster quality over Milwaukee
- New York gets home court
- New York is without Josh Hart
OfficialsMark Lindsay, Brent Barnaky, Michael Smith
Ref noteLindsay calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.51 a game vs 0.32 league (164 in 321 games). Lindsay slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (207 in 321 games). Smith calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.59 a game vs 0.32 league (145 in 246 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Mikal BridgesUnder 1.5 steals67%LOSS
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Under 1.5 threes made63%LOSS
- Andre DrummondUnder 0.5 steals60%WIN
2 more props
- Landry ShametUnder 2.5 threes made60%WIN
- Jalen BrunsonUnder 3.5 rebounds60%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Milwaukee 0-5, New York 4-1 over their last five
- New York is led by Jalen Brunson
- We like Milwaukee getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
Official profiles: Mark Lindsay, Brent Barnaky, Michael Smith
Mark LindsayOfficial · 321 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often, slow to call technicals.
- Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.51 a game vs 0.32 league (164 in 321 games).
- Slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (207 in 321 games).
| Measure | Lindsay | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.9 | 44.0 | 41 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.1 | 20.0 | 30 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.5 | 45.0 | 23 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.86 | 3.23 | 72 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.64 | 0.81 | 69 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.30 | 1.44 | 60 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 47 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.46 | 1.43 | 33 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.3% (162/322)Home covered 45.8% (146/319)Favorite covered 48.9% (156/319)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Brent BarnakyOfficial · 341 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Barnaky | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.3 | 44.0 | 53 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.9 | 20.0 | 42 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.6 | 45.0 | 50 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.17 | 3.23 | 41 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.79 | 0.81 | 44 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.30 | 1.44 | 62 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.12 | 1.33 | 69 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.31 | 1.43 | 62 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.0% (170/340)Home covered 51.0% (173/339)Favorite covered 49.7% (168/338)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Michael SmithOfficial · 246 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often.
- Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.59 a game vs 0.32 league (145 in 246 games).
| Measure | Smith | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 45.9 | 44.0 | 2 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.9 | 20.0 | 43 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.5 | 45.0 | 25 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.65 | 3.23 | 3 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.84 | 0.81 | 27 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.61 | 1.44 | 12 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 41 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.41 | 1.43 | 42 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.6% (121/244)Home covered 54.1% (133/246)Favorite covered 52.0% (127/244)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Boston123
Philadelphia101
FINAL · we projected 117 – 116Projected total 233
SPREADPhiladelphia +2.553%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 217.571%WIN
Win chance · Boston favored
OUR PICKPhiladelphia +2.5SPREADLOSS
53%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Philadelphia has home court.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Boston has a clear edge in roster quality over Philadelphia
- Philadelphia gets home court
- Philadelphia has 3 players out
OutPhiladelphia: Dominick Barlow (F), Adem Bona (C), Ariel Hukporti (C)
OfficialsJames Capers, Ed Malloy, Intae Hwang
Ref noteCapers calls defensive 3 seconds less often: 0.17 a game vs 0.32 league (49 in 288 games). Capers calls traveling less often: 1.15 a game vs 1.44 league (330 in 288 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Jayson TatumUnder 1.5 steals65%WIN
- LeBron JamesUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN
- Dean WadeOver 2.5 rebounds61%WIN
2 more props
- Joel EmbiidUnder 8.5 rebounds60%WIN
- VJ EdgecombeUnder 1.5 steals60%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Boston 4-1, Philadelphia 4-1 over their last five
- Boston is led by Jayson Tatum
- We like Philadelphia getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
Official profiles: James Capers, Ed Malloy, Intae Hwang
James CapersOfficial · 288 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds less often, calls traveling less often.
- Calls defensive 3 seconds less often: 0.17 a game vs 0.32 league (49 in 288 games).
- Calls traveling less often: 1.15 a game vs 1.44 league (330 in 288 games).
| Measure | Capers | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.2 | 44.0 | 32 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.5 | 20.0 | 64 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.6 | 45.0 | 49 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.38 | 3.23 | 22 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.83 | 0.81 | 36 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.15 | 1.44 | 69 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.29 | 1.33 | 49 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.40 | 1.43 | 44 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.4% (139/287)Home covered 51.8% (147/284)Favorite covered 49.1% (139/283)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Ed MalloyOfficial · 306 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Malloy | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.6 | 44.0 | 46 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.0 | 20.0 | 35 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.5 | 45.0 | 51 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.36 | 3.23 | 23 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.89 | 0.81 | 17 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.47 | 1.44 | 36 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 51 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.41 | 1.43 | 40 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.2% (144/305)Home covered 55.3% (167/302)Favorite covered 51.5% (155/301)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Intae HwangOfficial · 97 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Only 97 games on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Hwang | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 42.4 | 44.0 | |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.9 | 20.0 | |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.1 | 45.0 | |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.94 | 3.23 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.73 | 0.81 | |
| Traveling per game | 1.23 | 1.44 | |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.36 | 1.33 | |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.66 | 1.43 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.4% (46/97)Home covered 46.4% (45/97)Favorite covered 51.5% (50/97)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
9:00 PM ET 2 games
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Miami115
Utah109
FINAL · we projected 116 – 112Projected total 228
SPREADUtah +6.557%
OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 227.550%WIN
Win chance · Miami favored
OUR PICKUtah +6.5SPREADWIN
57%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Utah has home court; Utah is without Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Miami has a big edge in roster quality over Utah
- Utah gets home court
- Utah is without Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George and Jaren Jackson Jr.
OutMiami: Pelle Larsson (G), Klay Thompson (G); Utah: Lauri Markkanen (F), Jaren Jackson Jr. (F), Jusuf Nurkic (C), Trey Alexander (G)
OfficialsScott Foster, Sean Corbin, JP Primm
Ref noteFoster slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (209 in 327 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Andrew WigginsUnder 1.5 blocks68%WIN
- Giannis AntetokounmpoUnder 1.5 blocks66%WIN
- Pelle LarssonUnder 1.5 steals66%WIN
2 more props
- Bam AdebayoOver 0.5 threes made65%LOSS
- Isaiah CollierUnder 0.5 threes made62%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Miami 3-2, Utah 0-5 over their last five
- Miami is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo
- We like Utah getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
Official profiles: Scott Foster, Sean Corbin
Scott FosterOfficial · 327 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: slow to call technicals.
- Slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (209 in 327 games).
| Measure | Foster | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.8 | 44.0 | 16 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.2 | 20.0 | 26 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.7 | 45.0 | 20 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.72 | 3.23 | 1 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.64 | 0.81 | 70 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.54 | 1.44 | 22 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 50 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.50 | 1.43 | 22 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.1% (177/327)Home covered 54.4% (178/327)Favorite covered 51.4% (168/327)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Sean CorbinOfficial · 279 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Corbin | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.4 | 44.0 | 48 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.7 | 20.0 | 54 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.4 | 45.0 | 53 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.07 | 3.23 | 55 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.80 | 0.81 | 43 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.46 | 1.44 | 41 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.48 | 1.33 | 9 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.51 | 1.43 | 21 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.9% (147/278)Home covered 51.3% (142/277)Favorite covered 53.8% (149/277)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
BACK-TO-BACK · Phoenix
Los Angeles (C)110
Phoenix133
FINAL · we projected 111 – 114Projected total 225
SPREADLos Angeles (C) +3.553%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 224.551%WIN
Win chance · Phoenix favored
OUR PICKLos Angeles (C) +3.5SPREADLOSS
53%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Phoenix played the night before; Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Phoenix has a clear edge in roster quality over Los Angeles (C)
- Phoenix gets home court
- Phoenix is on the second night of a back-to-back
OutLos Angeles (C): Brandon Ingram (F), Bradley Beal (G), Jordan Miller (G), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (C); Phoenix: Mark Williams (C)
OfficialsMitchell Ervin, Eric Lewis, Brent Haskill
PLAYER PROPS
- Jalen GreenUnder 1.5 steals66%WIN
- Keaton WaglerOver 0.5 threes made64%WIN
- Darius GarlandUnder 1.5 steals64%WIN
2 more props
- Max StrusUnder 2.5 threes made64%WIN
- Rui HachimuraUnder 2.5 threes made64%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal
- Recent games: Los Angeles (C) 1-4, Phoenix 2-3 over their last five
- Phoenix is led by Collin Gillespie
Official profiles: Mitchell Ervin, Eric Lewis, Brent Haskill
Mitchell ErvinOfficial · 343 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Ervin | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 45.8 | 44.0 | 3 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.5 | 20.0 | 15 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 46.7 | 45.0 | 5 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.38 | 3.23 | 20 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.81 | 0.81 | 42 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.59 | 1.44 | 16 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.79 | 1.33 | 1 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.87 | 1.43 | 1 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.1% (188/341)Home covered 49.6% (169/341)Favorite covered 48.1% (163/339)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Eric LewisOfficial · 153 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Lewis | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 47.4 | 44.0 | 1 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.5 | 20.0 | 11 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 47.7 | 45.0 | 1 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.68 | 3.23 | 2 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.84 | 0.81 | 30 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.53 | 1.44 | 24 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.62 | 1.33 | 3 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.69 | 1.43 | 4 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.0% (79/149)Home covered 51.3% (78/152)Favorite covered 46.1% (70/152)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Brent HaskillOfficial · 33 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Only 33 games on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Haskill | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 46.2 | 44.0 | |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.5 | 20.0 | |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 47.2 | 45.0 | |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.76 | 3.23 | |
| Technicals per game | 1.42 | 0.81 | |
| Traveling per game | 1.39 | 1.44 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.5% (18/33)Home covered 45.5% (15/33)Favorite covered 48.5% (16/33)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
10:00 PM ET 1 game
Tue Nov 10 · 10:00 PM ET
Orlando107
Sacramento100
FINAL · we projected 115 – 112Projected total 227
SPREADSacramento +5.556%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 222.557%LOSS
Win chance · Orlando favored
OUR PICKSacramento +5.5SPREADLOSS
56%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Orlando is without Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs; Sacramento has home court; Sacramento is without Maxime Raynaud but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Orlando has a clear edge in roster quality over Sacramento
- Sacramento gets home court
- Orlando is without Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Tristan da Silva
OutOrlando: Paolo Banchero (F), Noah Penda (F), Jonathan Isaac (F), Izaiyah Nelson (F); Sacramento: Maxime Raynaud (C), Precious Achiuwa (F), Ben Simmons (G)
OfficialsBill Kennedy, Kevin Cutler, Matt Myers
PLAYER PROPS
- Jase RichardsonUnder 1.5 threes made63%WIN
- Jamal CainUnder 4.5 rebounds62%WIN
- Desmond BaneUnder 1.5 steals62%WIN
2 more props
- Franz WagnerUnder 1.5 steals59%LOSS
- Wendell Carter Jr.Over 0.5 threes made59%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Sacramento is without Maxime Raynaud
- Recent games: Orlando 1-4, Sacramento 1-4 over their last five
- Orlando is led by Franz Wagner
Official profiles: Bill Kennedy, Kevin Cutler, Matt Myers
Bill KennedyOfficial · 298 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Kennedy | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.2 | 44.0 | 31 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.2 | 20.0 | 27 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.5 | 45.0 | 27 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.12 | 3.23 | 49 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.82 | 0.81 | 40 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.52 | 1.44 | 25 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.15 | 1.33 | 66 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.24 | 1.43 | 70 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.7% (147/296)Home covered 49.8% (146/293)Favorite covered 54.9% (161/293)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Kevin CutlerOfficial · 309 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Cutler | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.2 | 44.0 | 57 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.9 | 20.0 | 38 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.5 | 45.0 | 52 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.97 | 3.23 | 67 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.69 | 0.81 | 64 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.43 | 1.44 | 46 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.12 | 1.33 | 68 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.39 | 1.43 | 46 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.8% (153/307)Home covered 45.8% (140/306)Favorite covered 47.2% (144/305)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Matt MyersOfficial · 240 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Myers | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.5 | 44.0 | 25 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.5 | 20.0 | 10 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.7 | 45.0 | 19 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.25 | 3.23 | 32 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.76 | 0.81 | 53 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.43 | 1.44 | 47 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 23 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.32 | 1.43 | 59 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.1% (124/238)Home covered 51.9% (124/239)Favorite covered 56.3% (134/238)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
11:00 PM ET 1 game
Tue Nov 10 · 11:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City103
Portland123
FINAL · we projected 113 – 113Projected total 226
SPREADPortland +1.554%
OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 226.551%WIN
Win chance · Portland favored
OUR PICKPortland +1.5SPREADWIN
54%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace; Portland has home court; Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe and Ja Morant but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Portland and Oklahoma City are closely matched on paper
- Portland gets home court
- Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace
OutOklahoma City: Chet Holmgren (C), Jalen Williams (G), Cason Wallace (G), Ajay Mitchell (G), Jaylin Williams (F), Thomas Sorber (C); Portland: Shaedon Sharpe (G), Ja Morant (G), Vit Krejci (G), Chris Youngblood (G)
OfficialsCurtis Blair, Eric Dalen, Brandon Schwab
Ref noteBlair calls traveling less often: 1.10 a game vs 1.44 league (383 in 348 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Isaiah HartensteinUnder 1.5 steals66%WIN
- Bennett StirtzUnder 2.5 rebounds65%WIN
- Alex CarusoUnder 1.5 threes made62%WIN
2 more props
- Jrue HolidayUnder 2.5 threes made62%WIN
- Ajay MitchellUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe and Ja Morant
- Recent games: Oklahoma City 4-1, Portland 3-2 over their last five
- Portland is led by Deni Avdija
Official profiles: Curtis Blair, Eric Dalen, Brandon Schwab
Curtis BlairOfficial · 348 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls traveling less often.
- Calls traveling less often: 1.10 a game vs 1.44 league (383 in 348 games).
| Measure | Blair | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.3 | 44.0 | 52 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.2 | 20.0 | 70 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 43.8 | 45.0 | 64 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.38 | 3.23 | 21 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.75 | 0.81 | 54 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.10 | 1.44 | 72 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 8 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.54 | 1.43 | 15 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.7% (162/347)Home covered 48.3% (166/344)Favorite covered 44.5% (153/344)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Eric DalenOfficial · 273 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Dalen | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.1 | 44.0 | 62 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.6 | 20.0 | 57 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 43.8 | 45.0 | 63 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.24 | 3.23 | 33 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.77 | 0.81 | 51 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.41 | 1.44 | 52 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 24 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.49 | 1.43 | 26 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.3% (119/275)Home covered 52.4% (143/273)Favorite covered 52.0% (142/273)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Brandon SchwabOfficial · 221 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Schwab | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.1 | 44.0 | 58 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.7 | 20.0 | 5 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.7 | 45.0 | 46 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.05 | 3.23 | 60 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.73 | 0.81 | 60 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.52 | 1.44 | 26 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.26 | 1.33 | 55 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.41 | 1.43 | 40 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.3% (108/219)Home covered 54.3% (120/221)Favorite covered 51.6% (114/221)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.