SATURDAY NOV 7 graded picks
Went 5-2 on the day
5:00 PM ET 1 game
Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET
Denver114
Indiana102
FINAL · we projected 122 – 114Projected total 236
SPREADDenver -7.551%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 229.564%LOSS
Win chance · Denver favored
OUR PICKDenver -7.5SPREADWIN
51%ConfidenceDenver has the stronger roster on paper; Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton; the game is on a neutral floor.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Denver has a big edge in roster quality over Indiana
- Neutral floor, so neither side gets home court
- Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton
OutDenver: Julian Strawther (G); Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton (G), Ben Sheppard (G), Johnny Furphy (G)
WhereArena CDMX (neutral floor)
OfficialsGediminas Petraitis, Brian Forte, Brandon Schwab
Ref noteForte calls traveling less often: 1.12 a game vs 1.44 league (382 in 340 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Pascal SiakamUnder 1.5 steals66%WIN
- Aaron NesmithUnder 2.5 threes made65%WIN
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Under 1.5 threes made65%WIN
2 more props
- Christian BraunUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
- Ivica ZubacUnder 0.5 steals62%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Denver 3-2, Indiana 1-4 over their last five
- Denver is led by Nikola Jokic
- We like Denver to win by more than the line
Official profiles: Gediminas Petraitis, Brian Forte, Brandon Schwab
Gediminas PetraitisOfficial · 336 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Petraitis | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.3 | 44.0 | 29 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.1 | 20.0 | 28 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.7 | 45.0 | 17 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.43 | 3.23 | 16 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.90 | 0.81 | 11 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.23 | 1.44 | 64 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 36 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.39 | 1.43 | 48 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.5% (172/334)Home covered 46.7% (155/332)Favorite covered 52.7% (175/332)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Brian ForteOfficial · 340 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls traveling less often.
- Calls traveling less often: 1.12 a game vs 1.44 league (382 in 340 games).
| Measure | Forte | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 42.9 | 44.0 | 66 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.7 | 20.0 | 52 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.1 | 45.0 | 57 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.29 | 3.23 | 26 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.89 | 0.81 | 15 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.12 | 1.44 | 71 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.26 | 1.33 | 56 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.40 | 1.43 | 43 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.3% (146/337)Home covered 53.0% (179/338)Favorite covered 50.0% (169/338)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Brandon SchwabOfficial · 221 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Schwab | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.1 | 44.0 | 58 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.7 | 20.0 | 5 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.7 | 45.0 | 46 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.05 | 3.23 | 60 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.73 | 0.81 | 60 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.52 | 1.44 | 26 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.26 | 1.33 | 55 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.41 | 1.43 | 40 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.3% (108/219)Home covered 54.3% (120/221)Favorite covered 51.6% (114/221)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
7:30 PM ET 3 games
Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET
BACK-TO-BACK · Atlanta
Brooklyn121
Atlanta124
FINAL · we projected 109 – 115Projected total 224
SPREADBrooklyn +6.556%
OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 227.559%LOSS
Win chance · Atlanta favored
OUR PICKBrooklyn +6.5SPREADWIN
56%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Atlanta is without Jalen Johnson; Atlanta played the night before; Brooklyn is without Egor Demin but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Atlanta has a clear edge in roster quality over Brooklyn
- Atlanta gets home court
- Atlanta is on the second night of a back-to-back
OutBrooklyn: Egor Demin (G); Atlanta: Keshon Gilbert (G), Mouhamed Gueye (F), Asa Newell (F), Henri Veesaar (C)
OfficialsMark Lindsay, Eric Dalen, Biniam Maru
Ref noteLindsay calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.51 a game vs 0.32 league (164 in 321 games). Lindsay slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (207 in 321 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Nolan TraoreUnder 1.5 steals66%LOSS
- Day'Ron SharpeUnder 1.5 steals65%WIN
- Michael Porter Jr.Under 1.5 steals64%WIN
2 more props
- Dyson DanielsUnder 2.5 steals61%LOSS
- Luguentz DortOver 2.5 rebounds61%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Brooklyn is without Egor Demin
- Atlanta has 5 players out
- Recent games: Brooklyn 2-3, Atlanta 4-1 over their last five
Official profiles: Mark Lindsay, Eric Dalen, Biniam Maru
Mark LindsayOfficial · 321 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds often, slow to call technicals.
- Calls defensive 3 seconds often: 0.51 a game vs 0.32 league (164 in 321 games).
- Slow to call technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.81 league (207 in 321 games).
| Measure | Lindsay | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.9 | 44.0 | 41 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.1 | 20.0 | 30 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.5 | 45.0 | 23 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.86 | 3.23 | 72 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.64 | 0.81 | 69 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.30 | 1.44 | 60 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 47 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.46 | 1.43 | 33 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.3% (162/322)Home covered 45.8% (146/319)Favorite covered 48.9% (156/319)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Eric DalenOfficial · 273 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Dalen | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.1 | 44.0 | 62 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.6 | 20.0 | 57 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 43.8 | 45.0 | 63 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.24 | 3.23 | 33 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.77 | 0.81 | 51 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.41 | 1.44 | 52 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 24 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.49 | 1.43 | 26 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.3% (119/275)Home covered 52.4% (143/273)Favorite covered 52.0% (142/273)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Biniam MaruOfficial · 43 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Only 43 games on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Maru | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.5 | 44.0 | |
| Shooting fouls per game | 21.7 | 20.0 | |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 48.7 | 45.0 | |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.91 | 3.23 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.81 | 0.81 | |
| Traveling per game | 1.19 | 1.44 | |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 0.86 | 1.33 | |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.40 | 1.43 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.5% (23/43)Home covered 39.5% (17/43)Favorite covered 69.8% (30/43)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
TOP PICKSat Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET
BACK-TO-BACK · Cleveland
New York109
Cleveland97
FINAL · we projected 116 – 119Projected total 235
SPREADCleveland +4.570%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 222.575%LOSS
Win chance · Cleveland favored
OUR PICKCleveland +4.5SPREADLOSS
70%ConfidenceCleveland has the stronger roster on paper and home court; New York is without Josh Hart; Cleveland played the night before and is without Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill but still gets the edge.
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Cleveland has a clear edge in roster quality over New York
- Cleveland gets home court
- Cleveland is on the second night of a back-to-back
OutNew York: Josh Hart (G); Cleveland: Jaylon Tyson (G), Sam Merrill (G)
OfficialsZach Zarba, Ed Malloy, Ashley Moyer-Gleich
Ref noteZarba slow to call technicals: 0.56 a game vs 0.81 league (212 in 378 games). Zarba calls traveling less often: 1.13 a game vs 1.44 league (426 in 378 games). Moyer-Gleich calls fewer flagrants: 0.10 a game vs 0.15 league (17 in 175 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Landry ShametUnder 0.5 blocks66%WIN
- Donovan MitchellUnder 0.5 blocks62%LOSS
- James HardenOver 0.5 steals61%LOSS
2 more props
- Peyton WatsonOver 0.5 blocks61%WIN
- Mikal BridgesUnder 3.5 rebounds61%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- New York is without Josh Hart
- Cleveland is without Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill
- Recent games: New York 4-1, Cleveland 2-3 over their last five
Official profiles: Zach Zarba, Ed Malloy, Ashley Moyer-Gleich
Zach ZarbaOfficial · 378 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: slow to call technicals, calls traveling less often.
- Slow to call technicals: 0.56 a game vs 0.81 league (212 in 378 games).
- Calls traveling less often: 1.13 a game vs 1.44 league (426 in 378 games).
| Measure | Zarba | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 42.2 | 44.0 | 71 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.2 | 20.0 | 69 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 43.3 | 45.0 | 70 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.82 | 3.23 | 73 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.56 | 0.81 | 73 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.13 | 1.44 | 70 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.32 | 1.33 | 44 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.34 | 1.43 | 56 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.8% (199/377)Home covered 49.9% (187/375)Favorite covered 51.1% (191/374)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Ed MalloyOfficial · 306 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Malloy | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.6 | 44.0 | 46 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.0 | 20.0 | 35 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.5 | 45.0 | 51 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.36 | 3.23 | 23 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.89 | 0.81 | 17 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.47 | 1.44 | 36 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 51 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.41 | 1.43 | 40 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.2% (144/305)Home covered 55.3% (167/302)Favorite covered 51.5% (155/301)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Ashley Moyer-GleichOfficial · 175 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls fewer flagrants.
- Calls fewer flagrants: 0.10 a game vs 0.15 league (17 in 175 games).
| Measure | Moyer-Gleich | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.0 | 44.0 | 39 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.7 | 20.0 | 3 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.8 | 45.0 | 15 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.29 | 3.23 | 27 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.78 | 0.81 | 46 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.46 | 1.44 | 37 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 43 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.37 | 1.43 | 52 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.1% (89/174)Home covered 48.0% (84/175)Favorite covered 43.4% (76/175)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Sat Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET
Washington75
Oklahoma City114
FINAL · we projected 106 – 120Projected total 226
SPREADOklahoma City -11.551%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 223.555%LOSS
Win chance · Oklahoma City favored
OUR PICKOklahoma City -11.5SPREADWIN
51%ConfidenceOklahoma City has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Oklahoma City has a big edge in roster quality over Washington
- Oklahoma City gets home court
- Both teams played last night
OutWashington: Jamir Watkins (G), Justin Champagnie (F), Tristan Vukcevic (F), Reece Beekman (G); Oklahoma City: Chet Holmgren (C), Jalen Williams (G), Cason Wallace (G), Jaylin Williams (F), Thomas Sorber (C)
OfficialsNick Buchert, Karl Lane, Scott Twardoski
Ref noteBuchert calls traveling often: 1.74 a game vs 1.44 league (574 in 330 games). Buchert calls more flagrants: 0.20 a game vs 0.15 league (65 in 330 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Isaiah HartensteinUnder 1.5 steals65%LOSS
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderUnder 2.5 threes made65%LOSS
- Alex CarusoUnder 1.5 steals64%WIN
2 more props
- Ajay MitchellUnder 4.5 rebounds61%WIN
- Bilal CoulibalyOver 2.5 rebounds61%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Washington is without Anthony Davis
- Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace
- Recent games: Washington 2-3, Oklahoma City 3-2 over their last five
Official profiles: Nick Buchert, Karl Lane, Scott Twardoski
Nick BuchertOfficial · 330 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls traveling often, calls more flagrants.
- Calls traveling often: 1.74 a game vs 1.44 league (574 in 330 games).
- Calls more flagrants: 0.20 a game vs 0.15 league (65 in 330 games).
| Measure | Buchert | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.9 | 44.0 | 14 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.8 | 20.0 | 46 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.2 | 45.0 | 31 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.13 | 3.23 | 48 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.90 | 0.81 | 14 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.74 | 1.44 | 3 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.58 | 1.33 | 4 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.60 | 1.43 | 8 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.0% (164/328)Home covered 44.3% (145/327)Favorite covered 46.2% (151/327)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Karl LaneOfficial · 319 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Lane | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.8 | 44.0 | 43 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.1 | 20.0 | 32 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.1 | 45.0 | 36 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.10 | 3.23 | 50 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.74 | 0.81 | 59 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.60 | 1.44 | 14 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.24 | 1.33 | 58 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.45 | 1.43 | 35 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.1% (169/318)Home covered 51.1% (162/317)Favorite covered 51.4% (163/317)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Scott TwardoskiOfficial · 274 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Twardoski | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.2 | 44.0 | 30 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.9 | 20.0 | 37 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.9 | 45.0 | 43 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.44 | 3.23 | 15 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.69 | 0.81 | 66 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.40 | 1.44 | 53 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.45 | 1.33 | 16 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.70 | 1.43 | 3 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.0% (142/273)Home covered 47.6% (129/271)Favorite covered 51.3% (139/271)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
8:30 PM ET 2 games
Sat Nov 7 · 8:30 PM ET
Orlando119
Golden State126
FINAL · we projected 109 – 114Projected total 223
SPREADOrlando +7.556%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 220.556%WIN
Win chance · Golden State favored
OUR PICKOrlando +7.5SPREADWIN
56%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis; Orlando is without Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Golden State has a clear edge in roster quality over Orlando
- Golden State gets home court
- Orlando is without Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs
OutOrlando: Paolo Banchero (F), Jalen Suggs (G), Tristan da Silva (F), Noah Penda (F), Jonathan Isaac (F), Izaiyah Nelson (F); Golden State: Jimmy Butler III (F), Moses Moody (G), Kristaps Porzingis (C), Brandon Williams (G), Will Richard (G), Gary Payton II (G)
OfficialsCurtis Blair, Robert Hussey, Intae Hwang
Ref noteBlair calls traveling less often: 1.10 a game vs 1.44 league (383 in 348 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Jase RichardsonUnder 1.5 steals68%WIN
- Georges NiangOver 0.5 threes made66%WIN
- Brandin PodziemskiUnder 0.5 blocks66%LOSS
2 more props
- Stephen CurryUnder 0.5 blocks63%WIN
- Tristan da SilvaUnder 0.5 blocks61%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis
- Recent games: Orlando 1-4, Golden State 5-0 over their last five
- Golden State is led by Stephen Curry
Official profiles: Curtis Blair, Robert Hussey, Intae Hwang
Curtis BlairOfficial · 348 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: calls traveling less often.
- Calls traveling less often: 1.10 a game vs 1.44 league (383 in 348 games).
| Measure | Blair | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.3 | 44.0 | 52 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.2 | 20.0 | 70 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 43.8 | 45.0 | 64 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.38 | 3.23 | 21 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.75 | 0.81 | 54 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.10 | 1.44 | 72 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 8 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.54 | 1.43 | 15 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.7% (162/347)Home covered 48.3% (166/344)Favorite covered 44.5% (153/344)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Robert HusseyOfficial · 173 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Hussey | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 43.4 | 44.0 | 51 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.3 | 20.0 | 20 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.0 | 45.0 | 38 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.01 | 3.23 | 63 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.77 | 0.81 | 48 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.46 | 1.44 | 38 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 25 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.71 | 1.43 | 2 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.9% (91/172)Home covered 55.8% (96/172)Favorite covered 43.0% (74/172)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Intae HwangOfficial · 97 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Only 97 games on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Hwang | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 42.4 | 44.0 | |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.9 | 20.0 | |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.1 | 45.0 | |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.94 | 3.23 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.73 | 0.81 | |
| Traveling per game | 1.23 | 1.44 | |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.36 | 1.33 | |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.66 | 1.43 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.4% (46/97)Home covered 46.4% (45/97)Favorite covered 51.5% (50/97)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Sat Nov 7 · 9:00 PM ET
Houston99
Phoenix102
FINAL · we projected 116 – 111Projected total 227
SPREADPhoenix +6.554%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 223.557%LOSS
Win chance · Houston favored
OUR PICKPhoenix +6.5SPREADWIN
54%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Phoenix has home court.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Houston has a big edge in roster quality over Phoenix
- Phoenix gets home court
- Recent games: Houston 3-2, Phoenix 1-4 over their last five
OutHouston: Steven Adams (C), Clint Capela (C); Phoenix: Mark Williams (C)
OfficialsBen Taylor, Jason Goldenberg, Jenna Reneau
PLAYER PROPS
- Devin BookerUnder 0.5 blocks65%WIN
- Fred VanVleetUnder 0.5 blocks64%LOSS
- Reed SheppardUnder 1.5 steals62%WIN
2 more props
- Alperen SengunUnder 1.5 steals62%WIN
- Tari EasonUnder 1.5 threes made61%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Houston is led by Alperen Sengun
- We like Phoenix getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
Official profiles: Ben Taylor, Jason Goldenberg, Jenna Reneau
Ben TaylorOfficial · 280 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Taylor | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.8 | 44.0 | 15 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 19.5 | 20.0 | 60 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 44.9 | 45.0 | 39 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.61 | 3.23 | 4 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.88 | 0.81 | 18 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.48 | 1.44 | 35 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.31 | 1.33 | 46 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.32 | 1.43 | 58 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.1% (147/277)Home covered 51.1% (142/278)Favorite covered 54.7% (152/278)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Jason GoldenbergOfficial · 256 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Goldenberg | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.5 | 44.0 | 23 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.6 | 20.0 | 8 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 46.5 | 45.0 | 6 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.22 | 3.23 | 36 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.86 | 0.81 | 23 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.57 | 1.44 | 17 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.48 | 1.33 | 11 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.64 | 1.43 | 5 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.7% (141/253)Home covered 49.2% (126/256)Favorite covered 52.7% (135/256)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Jenna ReneauOfficial · 69 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Only 69 games on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Reneau | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.1 | 44.0 | |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.3 | 20.0 | |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 46.9 | 45.0 | |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 2.96 | 3.23 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.87 | 0.81 | |
| Traveling per game | 1.12 | 1.44 | |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.19 | 1.43 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 45.6% (31/68)Home covered 44.1% (30/68)Favorite covered 45.6% (31/68)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
10:00 PM ET 1 game
TOP PICKSat Nov 7 · 10:00 PM ET
San Antonio125
Portland103
FINAL · we projected 115 – 114Projected total 229
SPREADPortland +5.564%
OUR TOTAL PICKOver 228.552%LOSS
Win chance · San Antonio favored
OUR PICKPortland +5.5SPREADLOSS
64%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; San Antonio is without Tobias Harris; Portland has home court; Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe and Ja Morant but still gets the edge.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- San Antonio has a clear edge in roster quality over Portland
- Portland gets home court
- Both teams played last night
OutSan Antonio: Tobias Harris (F), Jayden Quaintance (F); Portland: Shaedon Sharpe (G), Ja Morant (G), Vit Krejci (G)
OfficialsBill Kennedy, Tre Maddox, Dannica Baroody
Ref noteBaroody quick with technicals: 1.06 a game vs 0.81 league (125 in 118 games).
PLAYER PROPS
- Scoot HendersonUnder 0.5 blocks67%LOSS
- Jrue HolidayUnder 0.5 blocks66%WIN
- Damian LillardUnder 0.5 blocks66%WIN
2 more props
- Stephon CastleUnder 1.5 steals65%WIN
- Victor WembanyamaUnder 1.5 steals64%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- San Antonio is without Tobias Harris
- Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe and Ja Morant
- Recent games: San Antonio 5-0, Portland 3-2 over their last five
Official profiles: Bill Kennedy, Tre Maddox, Dannica Baroody
Bill KennedyOfficial · 298 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Kennedy | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.2 | 44.0 | 31 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.2 | 20.0 | 27 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.5 | 45.0 | 27 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.12 | 3.23 | 49 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.82 | 0.81 | 40 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.52 | 1.44 | 25 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.15 | 1.33 | 66 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.24 | 1.43 | 70 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.7% (147/296)Home covered 49.8% (146/293)Favorite covered 54.9% (161/293)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Tre MaddoxOfficial · 259 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Maddox | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.2 | 44.0 | 33 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.1 | 20.0 | 34 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.1 | 45.0 | 34 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.47 | 3.23 | 13 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 0.81 | 0.81 | 41 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.37 | 1.44 | 55 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 33 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.27 | 1.43 | 68 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.5% (136/259)Home covered 56.4% (146/259)Favorite covered 54.4% (141/259)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.
Dannica BaroodyOfficial · 118 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27
Stands out on: quick with technicals.
- Quick with technicals: 1.06 a game vs 0.81 league (125 in 118 games).
| Measure | Baroody | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls per game | 44.5 | 44.0 | 24 of 73 |
| Shooting fouls per game | 20.2 | 20.0 | 22 of 73 |
| Free throws per game attempts, both teams | 45.3 | 45.0 | 30 of 73 |
| Offensive fouls per game incl. charges | 3.05 | 3.23 | 59 of 73 |
| Technicals per game | 1.06 | 0.81 | 1 of 73 |
| Traveling per game | 1.72 | 1.44 | 4 of 73 |
| Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5 | 1.56 | 1.33 | 5 of 73 |
| Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant | 1.60 | 1.43 | 7 of 73 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.5% (56/118)Home covered 56.4% (66/117)Favorite covered 47.9% (56/117)Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.