Pro Basketball Picks Sun Nov 8

SUNDAY NOV 8 graded picks

Went 5-2 on the day

3:30 PM ET 1 game

Sun Nov 8 · 3:30 PM ET

RESTED · Chicago · 3d off

Philadelphia127

Chicago121

FINAL · we projected 119 – 112Projected total 231

SPREADChicago +9.556%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 237.564%LOSS

70%

30%

Win chance · Philadelphia favored

OUR PICKChicago +9.5SPREADWIN

56%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Chicago has home court; Chicago is without Nic Claxton but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

Philadelphia has a big edge in roster quality over Chicago
Chicago gets home court
Chicago is the more rested team (3 days off)

OutPhiladelphia: Dominick Barlow (F), Adem Bona (C), Ariel Hukporti (C); Chicago: Norman Powell (G), Dailyn Swain (G), Tobe Awaka (F)

OfficialsTyler Ford, Che Flores, Matt Myers

Ref noteFlores calls fewer flagrants: 0.09 a game vs 0.15 league (15 in 159 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Joel EmbiidUnder 1.5 blocks65%WIN
Caleb WilsonUnder 1.5 blocks64%WIN
Jaylen BrownUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN

2 more props

LeBron JamesOver 0.5 steals61%WIN
Dean WadeOver 0.5 threes made61%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Philadelphia has 3 players out
Chicago is without Norman Powell
Recent games: Philadelphia 4-1, Chicago 0-5 over their last five

Official profiles: Tyler Ford, Che Flores, Matt Myers

Tyler FordOfficial · 343 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Ford	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.4	44.0	4 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.9	20.0	1 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.8	45.0	2 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.40	3.23	18 of 73
Technicals per game	0.77	0.81	50 of 73
Traveling per game	1.64	1.44	8 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.40	1.33	26 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.50	1.43	24 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.9% (181/342)Home covered 47.4% (161/340)Favorite covered 52.6% (179/340)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Che FloresOfficial · 159 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls fewer flagrants.

Calls fewer flagrants: 0.09 a game vs 0.15 league (15 in 159 games).

Measure	Flores	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.4	44.0	49 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.6	20.0	6 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.6	45.0	22 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.07	3.23	54 of 73
Technicals per game	0.68	0.81	67 of 73
Traveling per game	1.35	1.44	57 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.28	1.33	53 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.42	1.43	38 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.5% (85/159)Home covered 46.2% (73/158)Favorite covered 48.7% (77/158)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Matt MyersOfficial · 240 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Myers	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.5	44.0	25 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	10 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.7	45.0	19 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.25	3.23	32 of 73
Technicals per game	0.76	0.81	53 of 73
Traveling per game	1.43	1.44	47 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.41	1.33	23 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.32	1.43	59 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.1% (124/238)Home covered 51.9% (124/239)Favorite covered 56.3% (134/238)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

6:00 PM ET 1 game

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 6:00 PM ET

RESTED · Detroit · 3d off

Los Angeles (L)121

Detroit116

FINAL · we projected 109 – 113Projected total 222

SPREADLos Angeles (L) +7.561%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 216.562%WIN

39%

61%

Win chance · Detroit favored

OUR PICKLos Angeles (L) +7.5SPREADWIN

61%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Detroit is without Jalen Duren; Los Angeles (L) is without Luka Doncic but still gets the edge.

✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Detroit and Los Angeles (L) are closely matched on paper
Detroit gets home court
Detroit is the more rested team (3 days off)

OutLos Angeles (L): Quentin Grimes (G); Detroit: Jalen Duren (C), Isaiah Joe (G)

OfficialsJames Capers, Brent Barnaky, Brett Nansel

Ref noteCapers calls defensive 3 seconds less often: 0.17 a game vs 0.32 league (49 in 288 games). Capers calls traveling less often: 1.15 a game vs 1.44 league (330 in 288 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Duncan RobinsonUnder 0.5 blocks64%WIN
Walker KesslerUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
Collin SextonUnder 1.5 threes made63%WIN

2 more props

Austin ReavesUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
Daniss JenkinsUnder 1.5 threes made61%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Los Angeles (L) is without Luka Doncic
Detroit is without Jalen Duren
Recent games: Los Angeles (L) 4-1, Detroit 3-2 over their last five

Official profiles: James Capers, Brent Barnaky, Brett Nansel

James CapersOfficial · 288 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls defensive 3 seconds less often, calls traveling less often.

Calls defensive 3 seconds less often: 0.17 a game vs 0.32 league (49 in 288 games).
Calls traveling less often: 1.15 a game vs 1.44 league (330 in 288 games).

Measure	Capers	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.2	44.0	32 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.5	20.0	64 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.6	45.0	49 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.38	3.23	22 of 73
Technicals per game	0.83	0.81	36 of 73
Traveling per game	1.15	1.44	69 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.29	1.33	49 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.40	1.43	44 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.4% (139/287)Home covered 51.8% (147/284)Favorite covered 49.1% (139/283)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Brent BarnakyOfficial · 341 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Barnaky	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.3	44.0	53 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.9	20.0	42 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.6	45.0	50 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.17	3.23	41 of 73
Technicals per game	0.79	0.81	44 of 73
Traveling per game	1.30	1.44	62 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.12	1.33	69 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.31	1.43	62 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (170/340)Home covered 51.0% (173/339)Favorite covered 49.7% (168/338)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Brett NanselOfficial · 236 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Nansel	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.0	44.0	64 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.9	20.0	39 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.6	45.0	48 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.03	3.23	61 of 73
Technicals per game	0.77	0.81	49 of 73
Traveling per game	1.49	1.44	32 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.19	1.33	62 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.36	1.43	53 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.8% (117/235)Home covered 49.1% (115/234)Favorite covered 50.4% (118/234)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

7:00 PM ET 2 games

Sun Nov 8 · 7:00 PM ET

Utah100

Minnesota115

FINAL · we projected 109 – 121Projected total 230

SPREADUtah +11.551%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 222.565%LOSS

21%

79%

Win chance · Minnesota favored

OUR PICKUtah +11.5SPREADLOSS

51%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo; Utah is without Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

Minnesota has a big edge in roster quality over Utah
Minnesota gets home court
Utah is without Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic

OutUtah: Lauri Markkanen (F), Jaren Jackson Jr. (F), Jusuf Nurkic (C); Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (G), Donte DiVincenzo (G)

OfficialsMitchell Ervin, Mousa Dagher, John Conley

PLAYER PROPS

Keyonte GeorgeUnder 0.5 blocks66%WIN
LaMelo BallUnder 0.5 blocks66%WIN
Jonathan KumingaUnder 1.5 steals65%WIN

2 more props

Jaxson HayesUnder 1.5 blocks64%WIN
Ace BaileyUnder 6.5 rebounds63%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo
Recent games: Utah 0-5, Minnesota 4-1 over their last five
Minnesota is led by LaMelo Ball

Official profiles: Mitchell Ervin, Mousa Dagher, John Conley

Mitchell ErvinOfficial · 343 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Ervin	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.8	44.0	3 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	15 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.7	45.0	5 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.38	3.23	20 of 73
Technicals per game	0.81	0.81	42 of 73
Traveling per game	1.59	1.44	16 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.79	1.33	1 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.87	1.43	1 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.1% (188/341)Home covered 49.6% (169/341)Favorite covered 48.1% (163/339)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Mousa DagherOfficial · 249 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Dagher	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.0	44.0	12 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.2	20.0	23 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.5	45.0	26 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.51	3.23	9 of 73
Technicals per game	0.71	0.81	61 of 73
Traveling per game	1.42	1.44	48 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.54	1.33	7 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.58	1.43	9 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.0% (121/247)Home covered 49.6% (122/246)Favorite covered 44.3% (109/246)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

John ConleyOfficial · 178 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Conley	League	Rank
Calls per game	44.5	44.0	22 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.1	20.0	33 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.4	45.0	29 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.56	3.23	6 of 73
Technicals per game	0.83	0.81	37 of 73
Traveling per game	1.45	1.44	43 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.44	1.33	17 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.48	1.43	27 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.1% (94/177)Home covered 52.3% (92/176)Favorite covered 42.9% (75/175)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Sun Nov 8 · 7:30 PM ET

BACK-TO-BACK · Brooklyn

Brooklyn93

Dallas130

FINAL · we projected 107 – 116Projected total 223

SPREADDallas -7.552%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 223.551%WIN

27%

73%

Win chance · Dallas favored

OUR PICKDallas -7.5SPREADWIN

52%Confidence

Dallas has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Brooklyn is without Egor Demin; Brooklyn played the night before.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Dallas has a clear edge in roster quality over Brooklyn
Dallas gets home court
Brooklyn is on the second night of a back-to-back

OutBrooklyn: Nolan Traore (G), Mikel Brown Jr. (G); Dallas: Dereck Lively II (C), Sergio de Larrea (F), Tarik Biberovic (F)

OfficialsMarc Davis, Dedric Taylor, Kastine Evans

PLAYER PROPS

Julius RandleUnder 0.5 blocks67%LOSS
Nolan TraoreUnder 1.5 steals64%WIN
Kyrie IrvingUnder 1.5 steals62%WIN

2 more props

Cooper FlaggUnder 1.5 threes made62%LOSS
Daniel GaffordUnder 1.5 blocks60%LOSS

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Brooklyn is without Egor Demin
Dallas has 3 players out
Recent games: Brooklyn 2-3, Dallas 3-2 over their last five

Official profiles: Marc Davis, Dedric Taylor

Marc DavisOfficial · 367 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Davis	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.3	44.0	70 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.1	20.0	72 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.1	45.0	72 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.96	3.23	68 of 73
Technicals per game	0.85	0.81	26 of 73
Traveling per game	1.20	1.44	66 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.08	1.33	71 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.25	1.43	69 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.9% (190/366)Home covered 47.7% (174/365)Favorite covered 47.9% (175/365)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Dedric TaylorOfficial · 263 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Taylor	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.1	44.0	9 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	14 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.0	45.0	12 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.25	3.23	31 of 73
Technicals per game	0.90	0.81	12 of 73
Traveling per game	1.63	1.44	9 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.48	1.33	10 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.56	1.43	13 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.5% (136/259)Home covered 51.5% (134/260)Favorite covered 53.8% (140/260)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

8:00 PM ET 1 game

Sun Nov 8 · 8:00 PM ET

Boston117

Milwaukee97

FINAL · we projected 120 – 110Projected total 230

SPREADMilwaukee +13.559%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 221.566%LOSS

77%

23%

Win chance · Boston favored

OUR PICKMilwaukee +13.5SPREADLOSS

59%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Milwaukee has home court.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

Boston has a big edge in roster quality over Milwaukee
Milwaukee gets home court
Recent games: Boston 4-1, Milwaukee 0-5 over their last five

OutMilwaukee: Myles Turner (C)

OfficialsKevin Scott, Jonathan Sterling, Pat O'Connell

Ref noteScott calls traveling less often: 1.19 a game vs 1.44 league (374 in 314 games).

PLAYER PROPS

Brayden BurriesUnder 1.5 threes made64%WIN
Kyle KuzmaOver 0.5 threes made62%WIN
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Under 1.5 threes made62%WIN

2 more props

Payton PritchardUnder 2.5 threes made61%LOSS
AJ GreenUnder 2.5 threes made60%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Boston is led by Jayson Tatum
We like Milwaukee getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says

Official profiles: Kevin Scott, Jonathan Sterling, Pat O'Connell

Kevin ScottOfficial · 314 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls traveling less often.

Calls traveling less often: 1.19 a game vs 1.44 league (374 in 314 games).

Measure	Scott	League	Rank
Calls per game	42.9	44.0	67 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.7	20.0	53 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.2	45.0	56 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.07	3.23	53 of 73
Technicals per game	0.77	0.81	47 of 73
Traveling per game	1.19	1.44	68 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.15	1.33	65 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.29	1.43	64 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.2% (158/315)Home covered 49.4% (154/312)Favorite covered 48.9% (152/311)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Jonathan SterlingOfficial · 231 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Sterling	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.1	44.0	10 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.8	20.0	47 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.1	45.0	35 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.48	3.23	11 of 73
Technicals per game	0.92	0.81	8 of 73
Traveling per game	1.65	1.44	7 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.39	1.33	28 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.47	1.43	30 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.7% (124/231)Home covered 56.5% (130/230)Favorite covered 53.0% (122/230)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Pat O'ConnellOfficial · 64 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Only 64 games on record: too few to judge.

Measure	O'Connell	League
Calls per game	45.1	44.0
Shooting fouls per game	20.9	20.0
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	46.7	45.0
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.23	3.23
Technicals per game	0.80	0.81
Traveling per game	1.34	1.44
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.61	1.33
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.53	1.43

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.3% (29/64)Home covered 62.5% (40/64)Favorite covered 40.6% (26/64)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

9:00 PM ET 2 games

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 9:00 PM ET

Miami114

Sacramento108

FINAL · we projected 117 – 111Projected total 228

SPREADSacramento +11.570%

OUR TOTAL PICKUnder 235.565%WIN

67%

33%

Win chance · Miami favored

OUR PICKSacramento +11.5SPREADWIN

70%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Sacramento has home court; Sacramento is without Maxime Raynaud but still gets the edge.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Miami has a big edge in roster quality over Sacramento
Sacramento gets home court
Sacramento is without Maxime Raynaud

OutSacramento: Maxime Raynaud (C), Ben Simmons (G)

OfficialsCurtis Blair, Eric Lewis, Rodney Mott

Ref noteBlair calls traveling less often: 1.10 a game vs 1.44 league (383 in 348 games).

PLAYER PROPS

De'Andre HunterUnder 0.5 blocks67%WIN
Bam AdebayoOver 0.5 threes made65%WIN
Domantas SabonisUnder 0.5 blocks64%

2 more props

Giannis AntetokounmpoUnder 1.5 steals64%LOSS
Davion MitchellUnder 1.5 steals61%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Recent games: Miami 3-2, Sacramento 1-4 over their last five
Miami is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo
We like Sacramento getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says

Official profiles: Curtis Blair, Eric Lewis, Rodney Mott

Curtis BlairOfficial · 348 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Stands out on: calls traveling less often.

Calls traveling less often: 1.10 a game vs 1.44 league (383 in 348 games).

Measure	Blair	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.3	44.0	52 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.2	20.0	70 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	43.8	45.0	64 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.38	3.23	21 of 73
Technicals per game	0.75	0.81	54 of 73
Traveling per game	1.10	1.44	72 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.49	1.33	8 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.54	1.43	15 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.7% (162/347)Home covered 48.3% (166/344)Favorite covered 44.5% (153/344)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Eric LewisOfficial · 153 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Lewis	League	Rank
Calls per game	47.4	44.0	1 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	20.5	20.0	11 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	47.7	45.0	1 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.68	3.23	2 of 73
Technicals per game	0.84	0.81	30 of 73
Traveling per game	1.53	1.44	24 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.62	1.33	3 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.69	1.43	4 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.0% (79/149)Home covered 51.3% (78/152)Favorite covered 46.1% (70/152)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Rodney MottOfficial · 224 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Mott	League	Rank
Calls per game	45.0	44.0	13 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.8	20.0	48 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	45.5	45.0	24 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.32	3.23	24 of 73
Technicals per game	0.83	0.81	33 of 73
Traveling per game	1.71	1.44	5 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.44	1.33	20 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.53	1.43	18 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.7% (106/222)Home covered 52.2% (117/224)Favorite covered 50.9% (114/224)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Sun Nov 8 · 9:00 PM ET

RESTED · Los Angeles (C) · 3d off

New Orleans123

Los Angeles (C)139

FINAL · we projected 114 – 113Projected total 227

SPREADLos Angeles (C) +1.551%

OUR TOTAL PICKOver 226.551%WIN

53%

47%

Win chance · New Orleans favored

OUR PICKLos Angeles (C) +1.5SPREADWIN

51%Confidence

We expect a closer game than the line says; Los Angeles (C) has home court; Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal but still gets the edge.

✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

New Orleans has a clear edge in roster quality over Los Angeles (C)
Los Angeles (C) gets home court
Los Angeles (C) is the more rested team (3 days off)

OutNew Orleans: Trey Murphy III (F), Bennedict Mathurin (G), Yves Missi (C), Trendon Watford (F); Los Angeles (C): Brandon Ingram (F), Bradley Beal (G), Jordan Miller (G), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (C)

OfficialsKevin Cutler, Sean Corbin, Nate Cearley

PLAYER PROPS

Darius GarlandUnder 1.5 steals63%WIN
Kris DunnUnder 1.5 threes made62%LOSS
Brook LopezUnder 1.5 blocks62%WIN

2 more props

Trey Murphy IIIUnder 1.5 steals62%WIN
Rui HachimuraUnder 2.5 threes made61%WIN

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal
Recent games: New Orleans 4-1, Los Angeles (C) 0-5 over their last five
New Orleans is led by Zion Williamson

Official profiles: Kevin Cutler, Sean Corbin, Nate Cearley

Kevin CutlerOfficial · 309 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Cutler	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.2	44.0	57 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.9	20.0	38 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.5	45.0	52 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	2.97	3.23	67 of 73
Technicals per game	0.69	0.81	64 of 73
Traveling per game	1.43	1.44	46 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.12	1.33	68 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.39	1.43	46 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.8% (153/307)Home covered 45.8% (140/306)Favorite covered 47.2% (144/305)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Sean CorbinOfficial · 279 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Corbin	League	Rank
Calls per game	43.4	44.0	48 of 73
Shooting fouls per game	19.7	20.0	54 of 73
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	44.4	45.0	53 of 73
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	3.07	3.23	55 of 73
Technicals per game	0.80	0.81	43 of 73
Traveling per game	1.46	1.44	41 of 73
Late calls in close games final 5:00 of the 4th/OT, score within 5	1.48	1.33	9 of 73
Pivotal calls per game: 10+ pt win-prob swing, or a late-close technical/flagrant	1.51	1.43	21 of 73

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.9% (147/278)Home covered 51.3% (142/277)Favorite covered 53.8% (149/277)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.

Nate CearleyOfficial · 9 games · 2021-22 to 2026-27

Only 9 games on record: too few to judge.

Measure	Cearley	League
Calls per game	46.9	44.0
Shooting fouls per game	21.3	20.0
Free throws per game attempts, both teams	48.3	45.0
Offensive fouls per game incl. charges	4.67	3.23
Technicals per game	0.56	0.81
Traveling per game	1.22	1.44

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.6% (5/9)Home covered 33.3% (3/9)Favorite covered 33.3% (3/9)

Every call is credited to all three officials on the crew (ESPN does not say who blew the whistle), so these are the games this official works, shared with the crew-mates.