THURSDAY NOV 12 graded picks
Went 10-7 on the day
AP Top 25 1 game
Thu Nov 12 路 9:00 PM ET
Montana State71
23BYU86
FINAL · we projected 71 – 84Projected total 155
SPREADMontana State +23.570%
OVER / UNDERUnder 162.565%
Win chance · BYU favored
OUR PICKMontana State +23.5SPREADWIN
0Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Montana State at this line.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- No. 23 BYU is at home against Montana State.
- Montana State went 18-14 last season.
- BYU went 23-12 last season.
RecordsMontana State 1-2 路 BYU 4-0
Players gradeMontana State #122 路 BYU #18
Record gradeMontana State #173 路 BYU #5
OfficialsKipp Kissinger, Marques Pettigrew, Chad Shepherd
Ref notesShepherd: Quick with technicals: 0.65 a game vs 0.35 average (28 in 43 games). Shepherd: Calls it tight: 37.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,631 in 43 games, 2024-26).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Montana State returns about 67% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- BYU returns about 27% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 5 freshmen.
- BYU plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.
Loud arena: the Marriott Center, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profiles: Kipp Kissinger, Marques Pettigrew, Chad Shepherd
Kipp KissingerOfficial 路 234 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Kissinger | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.5 | 34.5 | 239 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.50 | 0.35 | 32 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.97 | 2.47 | 256 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.18 | 0.20 | 182 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 44.9% | 50.6% | 393 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.9% (237/528)Home covered 53.0% (229/432)Favorite covered 51.9% (273/526)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Marques PettigrewOfficial 路 193 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Pettigrew | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.1 | 34.5 | 171 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.39 | 0.35 | 104 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.89 | 2.47 | 265 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 167 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 47.7% | 50.6% | 332 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.7% (200/419)Home covered 47.4% (152/321)Favorite covered 47.5% (200/421)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Chad ShepherdOfficial 路 43 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game, fouls per game (high).
- Quick with technicals: 0.65 a game vs 0.35 average (28 in 43 games)
- Calls it tight: 37.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,631 in 43 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Shepherd | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 37.9 | 34.5 | 11 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.65 | 0.35 | 6 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.02 | 2.47 | 245 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.23 | 0.20 | 81 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 57.1% | 50.6% | 61 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.1% (72/126)Home covered 50.5% (52/103)Favorite covered 46.8% (58/124)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
More games 23 games
Thu Nov 12 路 3:00 PM ET
Kansas City68
George Mason77
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 145
SPREADKansas City +14.559%
OVER / UNDEROver 141.557%
Win chance · George Mason favored
OUR PICKKansas City +14.5SPREADWIN
70Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Kansas City at this line; neutral floor.
- George Mason and Kansas City meet on a neutral floor.
- Kansas City went 4-27 last season.
- George Mason went 23-10 last season.
RecordsKansas City 2-2 路 George Mason 2-0
WhereMcArthur Center (neutral floor)
OfficialsBrian Zink, Adam Vandenburgh, Will Flowers
Ref watchBrian Zink: unders hit 56% of his 193 games since 2021-22; Adam Vandenburgh: unders hit 58% of his 259 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesZink: Lets them play: 30.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,365 in 78 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Kansas City returns about 0% of its minutes and added 15 transfers.
- George Mason returns about 30% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Kansas City 2-2, George Mason 2-0.
Official profiles: Brian Zink, Adam Vandenburgh
Brian ZinkOfficial 路 78 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
- Lets them play: 30.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,365 in 78 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Zink | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 30.3 | 34.5 | 277 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.21 | 0.35 | 260 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.28 | 2.47 | 185 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.09 | 0.20 | 272 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 44.0% | 50.6% | 407 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.0% (85/193)Home covered 48.9% (85/174)Favorite covered 49.7% (96/193)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Adam VandenburghOfficial 路 110 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
| Measure | Vandenburgh | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.0 | 34.5 | 251 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.26 | 0.35 | 217 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.92 | 2.47 | 47 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.16 | 0.20 | 199 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 42.5% | 50.6% | 431 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 42.5% (110/259)Home covered 49.6% (119/240)Favorite covered 49.2% (127/258)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 6:00 PM ET
Bradley75
Coppin State67
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 142
SPREADCoppin State +10.555%
OVER / UNDEROver 131.569%
Win chance · Bradley favored
OUR PICKCoppin State +10.5SPREADWIN
70Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Coppin State at this line; neutral floor.
- Coppin State and Bradley meet on a neutral floor.
- Bradley went 21-13 last season.
- Coppin State went 7-24 last season.
RecordsBradley 1-2 路 Coppin State 1-2
WhereMcArthur Center (neutral floor)
OfficialsJason Bradwell, Michael Nardone, Mike Evans
Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Bradley returns about 6% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Coppin State returns about 59% of its minutes and added 4 transfers.
- Records coming in: Bradley 1-2, Coppin State 1-2.
Official profiles: Jason Bradwell, Michael Nardone, Mike Evans
Jason BradwellOfficial 路 86 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Bradwell | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.2 | 34.5 | 248 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.35 | 0.35 | 136 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.79 | 2.47 | 72 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.30 | 0.20 | 24 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.1% | 50.6% | 293 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.1% (85/173)Home covered 42.8% (68/159)Favorite covered 45.1% (79/175)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Michael NardoneOfficial 路 118 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Nardone | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.3 | 34.5 | 245 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.36 | 0.35 | 121 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.96 | 2.47 | 41 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.26 | 0.20 | 54 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.4% | 50.6% | 284 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.4% (132/267)Home covered 46.6% (108/232)Favorite covered 45.7% (121/265)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Mike EvansOfficial 路 120 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Evans | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.7 | 34.5 | 255 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.34 | 0.35 | 146 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 3.01 | 2.47 | 34 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.20 | 0.20 | 137 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 44.1% | 50.6% | 406 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.1% (93/211)Home covered 44.6% (83/186)Favorite covered 41.2% (87/211)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Morgan State
@UMBC78–83proj
Thu Nov 12 路 6:00 PM ETNo pick
Morgan State78
UMBC83
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 161
OVER / UNDERUnder 161.552%
Win chance · UMBC favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
- UMBC is at home against Morgan State.
- Morgan State went 14-16 last season.
- UMBC went 24-9 last season.
RecordsMorgan State 3-0 路 UMBC 1-2
OfficialsMike Millione, Ed Corliss, Steven Perry Jr.
Ref watchEd Corliss: unders hit 55% of his 309 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Morgan State returns about 37% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 1 freshman.
- UMBC returns about 28% of its minutes and added 9 transfers.
- Records coming in: Morgan State 3-0, UMBC 1-2.
Official profiles: Mike Millione, Ed Corliss, Steven Perry Jr.
Mike MillioneOfficial 路 89 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Millione | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.0 | 34.5 | 121 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.24 | 0.35 | 241 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.58 | 2.47 | 107 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.21 | 0.20 | 106 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 51.8% | 50.6% | 193 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.8% (102/197)Home covered 48.8% (84/172)Favorite covered 48.2% (96/199)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Ed CorlissOfficial 路 137 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
| Measure | Corliss | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.8 | 34.5 | 253 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.28 | 0.35 | 206 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.49 | 2.47 | 131 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.20 | 0.20 | 125 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 45.0% | 50.6% | 390 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 45.0% (139/309)Home covered 47.7% (127/266)Favorite covered 47.9% (146/305)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Steven Perry Jr.Official 路 42 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Jr. | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.3 | 34.5 | 265 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.38 | 0.35 | 108 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.10 | 2.47 | 230 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.17 | 0.20 | 195 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 50.0% | 50.6% | 266 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.0% (21/42)Home covered 53.8% (21/39)Favorite covered 57.1% (24/42)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 6:30 PM ET
Tennessee Tech73
Indiana88
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 161
SPREADTennessee Tech +24.568%
OVER / UNDERUnder 167.563%
Win chance · Indiana favored
OUR PICKTennessee Tech +24.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Tennessee Tech at this line; Indiana without P. Moody.
- Indiana is at home against Tennessee Tech.
- Tennessee Tech went 13-18 last season.
- Indiana went 18-14 last season.
Out: IndianaP. Moody
RecordsTennessee Tech 2-1 路 Indiana 3-0
OfficialsPaul Szelc, Kelly Pfeifer, Chad Barlow
Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Tennessee Tech returns about 14% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Indiana returns about 17% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- Indiana is without P. Moody.
Loud arena: Assembly Hall, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profiles: Paul Szelc, Kelly Pfeifer, Chad Barlow
Paul SzelcOfficial 路 171 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Szelc | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 37.1 | 34.5 | 30 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.40 | 0.35 | 84 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.49 | 2.47 | 130 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 166 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.0% | 50.6% | 297 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.0% (203/414)Home covered 55.4% (181/327)Favorite covered 49.2% (203/413)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Kelly PfeiferOfficial 路 157 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Pfeifer | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.7 | 34.5 | 80 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.29 | 0.35 | 199 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.55 | 2.47 | 120 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.25 | 0.20 | 68 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 50.3% | 50.6% | 250 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.3% (198/394)Home covered 52.1% (172/330)Favorite covered 51.1% (201/393)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Chad BarlowOfficial 路 114 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Barlow | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.4 | 34.5 | 158 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.45 | 0.35 | 53 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.58 | 2.47 | 280 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.08 | 0.20 | 279 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.5% | 50.6% | 278 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.5% (146/295)Home covered 51.6% (129/250)Favorite covered 47.6% (140/294)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 6:30 PM ET
Mercyhurst68
Penn State83
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 151
SPREADMercyhurst +20.561%
OVER / UNDEROver 145.560%
Win chance · Penn State favored
OUR PICKMercyhurst +20.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Mercyhurst at this line; Penn State without R. Blums.
- Penn State is at home against Mercyhurst.
- Mercyhurst went 17-17 last season.
- Penn State went 12-20 last season.
Out: Penn StateR. Blums
RecordsMercyhurst 1-2 路 Penn State 2-1
OfficialsMike Reed, Brian McNutt, Randy Richardson
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Mercyhurst returns about 42% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 1 freshman.
- Penn State returns about 26% of its minutes and added 12 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- Penn State is without R. Blums.
Official profiles: Mike Reed, Brian McNutt, Randy Richardson
Mike ReedOfficial 路 143 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Reed | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.5 | 34.5 | 149 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.37 | 0.35 | 114 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.22 | 2.47 | 205 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.20 | 0.20 | 133 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 48.6% | 50.6% | 308 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.6% (180/370)Home covered 49.8% (153/307)Favorite covered 50.0% (185/370)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Brian McNuttOfficial 路 94 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | McNutt | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 33.4 | 34.5 | 204 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.24 | 0.35 | 229 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.83 | 2.47 | 269 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.21 | 0.20 | 108 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 48.1% | 50.6% | 324 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.1% (114/237)Home covered 51.4% (109/212)Favorite covered 50.2% (119/237)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Randy RichardsonOfficial 路 157 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Richardson | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.3 | 34.5 | 160 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.37 | 0.35 | 116 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.43 | 2.47 | 141 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.21 | 0.20 | 115 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 55.9% | 50.6% | 90 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.9% (193/345)Home covered 47.4% (135/285)Favorite covered 46.0% (159/346)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ET
Mercer66
West Virginia83
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 149
SPREADMercer +25.566%
OVER / UNDERUnder 151.555%
Win chance · West Virginia favored
OUR PICKMercer +25.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Mercer at this line.
- West Virginia is at home against Mercer.
- Mercer went 19-13 last season.
- West Virginia went 21-14 last season.
RecordsMercer 2-2 路 West Virginia 2-0
OfficialsRick Crawford, Roger Ayers, Ray Natili, James Duke
Ref watchRoger Ayers: unders hit 58% of his 516 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesAyers: Lets them play: 30.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (6,623 in 219 games, 2024-26). Duke: Quick with technicals: 0.59 a game vs 0.35 average (33 in 56 games). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Mercer returns about 31% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- West Virginia returns about 10% of its minutes and added 12 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- West Virginia plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.
Loud arena: the WVU Coliseum, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball
Official profiles: Rick Crawford, Roger Ayers, Ray Natili, James Duke
Rick CrawfordOfficial 路 133 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Crawford | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 33.8 | 34.5 | 190 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.44 | 0.35 | 58 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.88 | 2.47 | 266 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.14 | 0.20 | 228 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 52.4% | 50.6% | 171 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.4% (183/349)Home covered 50.2% (152/303)Favorite covered 48.6% (170/350)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Roger AyersOfficial 路 219 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
- Lets them play: 30.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (6,623 in 219 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Ayers | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 30.2 | 34.5 | 278 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.28 | 0.35 | 204 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.01 | 2.47 | 249 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.14 | 0.20 | 234 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 41.5% | 50.6% | 439 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 41.5% (214/516)Home covered 50.0% (219/438)Favorite covered 48.6% (251/516)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Ray NatiliOfficial 路 88 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Natili | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 33.8 | 34.5 | 191 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.44 | 0.35 | 55 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.08 | 2.47 | 232 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.16 | 0.20 | 210 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 50.6% | 50.6% | 241 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.6% (165/326)Home covered 54.6% (147/269)Favorite covered 52.5% (170/324)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
James DukeOfficial 路 56 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
- Quick with technicals: 0.59 a game vs 0.35 average (33 in 56 games)
| Measure | Duke | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.6 | 34.5 | 90 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.59 | 0.35 | 14 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.05 | 2.47 | 239 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.21 | 0.20 | 104 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.2% | 50.6% | 291 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.2% (61/124)Home covered 47.2% (50/106)Favorite covered 46.8% (58/124)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ET
Cal State Bakersfield73
Western Illinois73
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 146
SPREADWestern Illinois +6.563%
OVER / UNDERUnder 147.555%
Win chance · Western Illinois favored
OUR PICKWestern Illinois +6.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Western Illinois at this line; home court.
- Western Illinois is at home against Cal State Bakersfield.
- Cal State Bakersfield went 8-24 last season.
- Western Illinois went 5-26 last season.
RecordsCal State Bakersfield 2-0 路 Western Illinois 1-2
OfficialsChris Koopman, Cody Crum, Michael Kashirsky
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Cal State Bakersfield returns about 18% of its minutes and added 8 transfers.
- Western Illinois returns about 26% of its minutes and added 11 transfers.
- Records coming in: Cal State Bakersfield 2-0, Western Illinois 1-2.
Official profiles: Cody Crum, Michael Kashirsky
Cody CrumOfficial 路 49 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Crum | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.7 | 34.5 | 133 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.39 | 0.35 | 105 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.71 | 2.47 | 82 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.31 | 0.20 | 23 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.4% | 50.6% | 283 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.4% (44/89)Home covered 44.7% (38/85)Favorite covered 50.6% (45/89)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Michael KashirskyOfficial 路 30 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 30 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Kashirsky | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 36.7 | 34.5 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.63 | 0.35 | |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.67 | 2.47 | |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.10 | 0.20 | |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 54.4% | 50.6% | 126 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.4% (43/79)Home covered 52.1% (37/71)Favorite covered 53.2% (42/79)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ET
Canisius65
Brown75
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 140
SPREADCanisius +13.556%
OVER / UNDEROver 137.555%
Win chance · Brown favored
OUR PICKCanisius +13.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Canisius at this line.
- Brown is at home against Canisius.
- Canisius went 10-21 last season.
- Brown went 9-18 last season.
RecordsCanisius 1-2 路 Brown 1-2
OfficialsRyan Corbett, Tim Smith, Tommy Deneen
Ref watchRyan Corbett: unders hit 56% of his 172 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Canisius returns about 1% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 1 freshman.
- Brown returns about 62% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Canisius 1-2, Brown 1-2.
Official profiles: Ryan Corbett, Tim Smith
Ryan CorbettOfficial 路 70 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
| Measure | Corbett | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.7 | 34.5 | 257 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.30 | 0.35 | 186 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.87 | 2.47 | 56 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.30 | 0.20 | 27 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 44.2% | 50.6% | 404 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.2% (76/172)Home covered 46.5% (74/159)Favorite covered 39.9% (69/173)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tim SmithOfficial 路 138 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Smith | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.8 | 34.5 | 252 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.25 | 0.35 | 225 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.35 | 2.47 | 170 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 161 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.7% | 50.6% | 271 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.7% (162/326)Home covered 49.5% (144/291)Favorite covered 49.7% (162/326)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ET
Niagara69
Bowling Green81
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 150
SPREADNiagara +15.558%
OVER / UNDEROver 144.560%
Win chance · Bowling Green favored
OUR PICKNiagara +15.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Niagara at this line.
- Bowling Green is at home against Niagara.
- Niagara went 8-22 last season.
- Bowling Green went 18-14 last season.
RecordsNiagara 0-2 路 Bowling Green 2-0
OfficialsGreg Langsdorf, Gerald Williams, Mark Riggs
Ref watchGreg Langsdorf: unders hit 57% of his 102 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Niagara returns about 9% of its minutes and added 10 transfers.
- Bowling Green returns about 54% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Niagara 0-2, Bowling Green 2-0.
Official profiles: Greg Langsdorf, Gerald Williams, Mark Riggs
Greg LangsdorfOfficial 路 39 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 39 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge. On the under watch list.
| Measure | Langsdorf | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 36.6 | 34.5 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.41 | 0.35 | |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.62 | 2.47 | |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.15 | 0.20 | |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 43.1% | 50.6% | 419 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.1% (44/102)Home covered 40.6% (41/101)Favorite covered 43.3% (45/104)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Gerald WilliamsOfficial 路 36 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 36 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Williams | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 37.2 | 34.5 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.36 | 0.35 | |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.72 | 2.47 | |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.31 | 0.20 | |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.5% | 50.6% | 279 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.5% (48/97)Home covered 48.9% (44/90)Favorite covered 52.6% (51/97)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Mark RiggsOfficial 路 66 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Riggs | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 37.3 | 34.5 | 24 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.44 | 0.35 | 57 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.27 | 2.47 | 187 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.27 | 0.20 | 48 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 55.8% | 50.6% | 94 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.8% (86/154)Home covered 47.8% (64/134)Favorite covered 49.1% (78/159)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ET
Southern Utah72
High Point86
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 158
SPREADSouthern Utah +22.568%
OVER / UNDERUnder 158.551%
Win chance · High Point favored
OUR PICKSouthern Utah +22.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Southern Utah at this line.
- High Point is at home against Southern Utah.
- Southern Utah went 10-22 last season.
- High Point went 31-5 last season.
RecordsSouthern Utah 3-0 路 High Point 3-0
OfficialsMark Schnur, Jerry Heater, Bill Covington Jr.
Ref notesHeater: Calls it tight: 37.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,804 in 127 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Southern Utah returns about 0% of its minutes and added 4 freshmen.
- High Point returns about 33% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Southern Utah 3-0, High Point 3-0.
Official profiles: Mark Schnur, Jerry Heater, Bill Covington Jr.
Mark SchnurOfficial 路 121 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Schnur | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.0 | 34.5 | 122 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.35 | 0.35 | 140 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.21 | 2.47 | 206 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.17 | 0.20 | 197 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 47.0% | 50.6% | 350 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.0% (132/281)Home covered 54.4% (130/239)Favorite covered 56.4% (159/282)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jerry HeaterOfficial 路 127 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high).
- Calls it tight: 37.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,804 in 127 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Heater | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 37.8 | 34.5 | 16 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.40 | 0.35 | 85 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.45 | 2.47 | 137 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.17 | 0.20 | 191 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 57.7% | 50.6% | 51 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.7% (168/291)Home covered 50.6% (126/249)Favorite covered 50.3% (146/290)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Bill Covington Jr.Official 路 156 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Jr. | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.0 | 34.5 | 119 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.50 | 0.35 | 29 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.10 | 2.47 | 229 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.13 | 0.20 | 245 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 53.4% | 50.6% | 147 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.4% (190/356)Home covered 53.1% (163/307)Favorite covered 52.3% (185/354)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ET
Maryland Eastern Shore60
Rhode Island79
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 139
SPREADMaryland Eastern Shore +23.559%
OVER / UNDEROver 136.553%
Win chance · Rhode Island favored
OUR PICKMaryland Eastern Shore +23.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Maryland Eastern Shore at this line.
- Rhode Island is at home against Maryland Eastern Shore.
- Maryland Eastern Shore went 9-23 last season.
- Rhode Island went 16-16 last season.
RecordsMaryland Eastern Shore 1-3 路 Rhode Island 3-0
OfficialsRon Tyburski, Ron Groover, Tyler Sandmann
Ref notesSandmann: Lets them play: 30.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,433 in 79 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Maryland Eastern Shore returns about 10% of its minutes and added 14 transfers.
- Rhode Island returns about 39% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Maryland Eastern Shore 1-3, Rhode Island 3-0.
Official profiles: Ron Tyburski, Ron Groover, Tyler Sandmann
Ron TyburskiOfficial 路 59 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Tyburski | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.4 | 34.5 | 243 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.44 | 0.35 | 56 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 3.10 | 2.47 | 25 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.25 | 0.20 | 62 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 50.6% | 50.6% | 239 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.6% (80/158)Home covered 50.8% (65/128)Favorite covered 50.0% (78/156)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Ron GrooverOfficial 路 215 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Groover | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.9 | 34.5 | 224 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.40 | 0.35 | 91 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.20 | 2.47 | 210 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.12 | 0.20 | 250 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 50.9% | 50.6% | 229 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.9% (264/519)Home covered 51.0% (223/437)Favorite covered 50.9% (262/515)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tyler SandmannOfficial 路 79 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low).
- Lets them play: 30.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,433 in 79 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Sandmann | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 30.8 | 34.5 | 272 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.24 | 0.35 | 234 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.75 | 2.47 | 77 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.13 | 0.20 | 246 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 46.9% | 50.6% | 354 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.9% (67/143)Home covered 46.3% (63/136)Favorite covered 48.6% (69/142)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Western Michigan
@Purdue Fort Wayne79–76proj
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Western Michigan79
Purdue Fort Wayne76
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 155
OVER / UNDEROver 153.554%
Win chance · Western Michigan favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Purdue Fort Wayne is at home against Western Michigan.
- Western Michigan went 10-21 last season.
- Purdue Fort Wayne went 17-15 last season.
RecordsWestern Michigan 2-1 路 Purdue Fort Wayne 1-1
OfficialsTim Comer, Jim Bruno, Scott Brown
Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Western Michigan returns about 0% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Purdue Fort Wayne returns about 36% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Western Michigan 2-1, Purdue Fort Wayne 1-1.
Official profiles: Tim Comer, Jim Bruno, Scott Brown
Tim ComerOfficial 路 136 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Comer | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.7 | 34.5 | 135 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.29 | 0.35 | 190 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.01 | 2.47 | 248 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.18 | 0.20 | 175 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 54.4% | 50.6% | 127 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.4% (161/296)Home covered 54.6% (142/260)Favorite covered 54.7% (162/296)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jim BrunoOfficial 路 72 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Bruno | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 37.1 | 34.5 | 32 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.36 | 0.35 | 126 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.88 | 2.47 | 54 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 148 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 54.6% | 50.6% | 121 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.6% (59/108)Home covered 48.0% (49/102)Favorite covered 45.8% (49/107)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Scott BrownOfficial 路 80 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Brown | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.8 | 34.5 | 76 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.33 | 0.35 | 159 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.26 | 2.47 | 191 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.21 | 0.20 | 110 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 51.2% | 50.6% | 221 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.2% (111/217)Home covered 49.7% (92/185)Favorite covered 46.5% (100/215)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Monmouth
@Quinnipiac73–75proj
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Monmouth73
Quinnipiac75
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 148
OVER / UNDEROver 144.558%
Win chance · Quinnipiac favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Quinnipiac is at home against Monmouth.
- Monmouth went 19-15 last season.
- Quinnipiac went 19-13 last season.
RecordsMonmouth 0-2 路 Quinnipiac 2-1
OfficialsJohn Gaffney, Nathan Farrell, Michael Palau
Ref watchJohn Gaffney: unders hit 56% of his 419 games since 2021-22; Nathan Farrell: unders hit 55% of his 382 games since 2021-22; Michael Palau: unders hit 59% of his 322 games since 2021-22. Whole crew leans under.
Ref notesFarrell: Lets them play: 30.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,782 in 155 games, 2024-26). Palau: Lets them play: 31.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,823 in 122 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Monmouth returns about 43% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Quinnipiac returns about 31% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 1 freshman.
- Records coming in: Monmouth 0-2, Quinnipiac 2-1.
Official profiles: John Gaffney, Nathan Farrell, Michael Palau
John GaffneyOfficial 路 164 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
| Measure | Gaffney | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.5 | 34.5 | 241 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.31 | 0.35 | 175 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.98 | 2.47 | 254 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.16 | 0.20 | 211 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 43.9% | 50.6% | 408 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.9% (184/419)Home covered 45.5% (158/347)Favorite covered 48.9% (205/419)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Nathan FarrellOfficial 路 155 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
- Lets them play: 30.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,782 in 155 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Farrell | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 30.9 | 34.5 | 271 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.32 | 0.35 | 161 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.23 | 2.47 | 199 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.10 | 0.20 | 265 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 45.0% | 50.6% | 388 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 45.0% (172/382)Home covered 53.5% (175/327)Favorite covered 50.7% (194/383)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Michael PalauOfficial 路 122 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
- Lets them play: 31.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,823 in 122 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Palau | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.3 | 34.5 | 264 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.21 | 0.35 | 253 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.62 | 2.47 | 99 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.08 | 0.20 | 277 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 41.0% | 50.6% | 443 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 41.0% (132/322)Home covered 47.7% (134/281)Favorite covered 48.6% (156/321)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Stetson
@Howard71–79proj
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Stetson71
Howard79
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 150
OVER / UNDEROver 148.553%
Win chance · Howard favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Howard is at home against Stetson.
- Stetson went 12-21 last season.
- Howard went 24-11 last season.
RecordsStetson 0-3 路 Howard 1-2
OfficialsClarence Armstrong, Ernest Hamilton III, Julian Scott
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Stetson returns about 46% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 1 freshman.
- Howard returns about 54% of its minutes and added 4 transfers.
- Records coming in: Stetson 0-3, Howard 1-2.
Official profiles: Clarence Armstrong, Ernest Hamilton III
Clarence ArmstrongOfficial 路 197 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Armstrong | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.2 | 34.5 | 164 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.39 | 0.35 | 96 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.57 | 2.47 | 112 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.18 | 0.20 | 185 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 50.1% | 50.6% | 252 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.1% (227/453)Home covered 50.5% (198/392)Favorite covered 47.3% (215/455)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Ernest Hamilton IIIOfficial 路 55 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | III | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.4 | 34.5 | 101 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.25 | 0.35 | 223 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 3.09 | 2.47 | 27 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.16 | 0.20 | 200 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 61.5% | 50.6% | 21 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 61.5% (56/91)Home covered 46.2% (37/80)Favorite covered 46.2% (42/91)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Central Connecticut
@Sacred Heart68–75proj
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Central Connecticut68
Sacred Heart75
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 143
OVER / UNDERUnder 144.553%
Win chance · Sacred Heart favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Sacred Heart is at home against Central Connecticut.
- Central Connecticut went 18-12 last season.
- Sacred Heart went 14-19 last season.
RecordsCentral Connecticut 1-2 路 Sacred Heart 2-1
OfficialsMike Roberts, John Cahill Jr., Nathan Hall
Ref notesHall: Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,282 in 136 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Central Connecticut returns about 52% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
- Sacred Heart returns about 17% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Central Connecticut 1-2, Sacred Heart 2-1.
Official profiles: Mike Roberts, John Cahill Jr., Nathan Hall
Mike RobertsOfficial 路 128 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Roberts | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.8 | 34.5 | 230 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.39 | 0.35 | 98 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.55 | 2.47 | 117 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 163 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.8% | 50.6% | 267 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.8% (161/323)Home covered 48.1% (138/287)Favorite covered 47.1% (153/325)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
John Cahill Jr.Official 路 123 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Jr. | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.8 | 34.5 | 254 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.37 | 0.35 | 110 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 3.18 | 2.47 | 19 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.20 | 0.20 | 129 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 48.6% | 50.6% | 309 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.6% (105/216)Home covered 48.3% (99/205)Favorite covered 48.1% (103/214)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Nathan HallOfficial 路 136 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low).
- Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,282 in 136 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Hall | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.5 | 34.5 | 260 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.41 | 0.35 | 75 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.45 | 2.47 | 138 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.18 | 0.20 | 176 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 48.3% | 50.6% | 316 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.3% (159/329)Home covered 46.3% (142/307)Favorite covered 50.6% (168/332)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Loyola Maryland
@Towson62–74proj
Thu Nov 12 路 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Loyola Maryland62
Towson74
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 136
OVER / UNDEROver 133.555%
Win chance · Towson favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Towson is at home against Loyola Maryland.
- Loyola Maryland went 12-20 last season.
- Towson went 19-15 last season.
RecordsLoyola Maryland 1-2 路 Towson 1-2
OfficialsMatt Potter, Ryan Sassano, Jarrett Robinson
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Loyola Maryland returns about 42% of its minutes and added 9 transfers.
- Towson returns about 33% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 5 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Loyola Maryland 1-2, Towson 1-2.
Official profiles: Matt Potter, Ryan Sassano
Matt PotterOfficial 路 191 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Potter | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 32.8 | 34.5 | 233 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.19 | 0.35 | 267 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 3.26 | 2.47 | 13 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.26 | 0.20 | 55 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 44.4% | 50.6% | 399 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.4% (188/423)Home covered 46.2% (166/359)Favorite covered 47.8% (202/423)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Ryan SassanoOfficial 路 116 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Sassano | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.5 | 34.5 | 97 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.34 | 0.35 | 143 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.34 | 2.47 | 171 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.13 | 0.20 | 242 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 53.1% | 50.6% | 158 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.1% (111/209)Home covered 53.1% (102/192)Favorite covered 46.6% (97/208)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 8:00 PM ET
West Florida83
Alabama A&M85
FINAL · we projected 70 – 78Projected total 148
SPREADAlabama A&M -5.555%
OVER / UNDEROver 146.554%
Win chance · Alabama A&M favored
OUR PICKAlabama A&M -5.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Alabama A&M at this line; home court.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Alabama A&M is at home against West Florida.
- Alabama A&M went 18-15 last season.
- West Florida returns about 0% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 3 freshmen.
RecordsWest Florida 2-1 路 Alabama A&M 2-1
Players gradeWest Florida #296 路 Alabama A&M #300
Record gradeWest Florida #280 路 Alabama A&M #210
OfficialsEarnie Pheal, Donald Daniels, Damien Richard
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Alabama A&M returns about 39% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 2 freshmen.
- Records coming in: West Florida 2-1, Alabama A&M 2-1.
Official profile: Damien Richard
Damien RichardOfficial 路 50 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Richard | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 33.9 | 34.5 | 183 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.24 | 0.35 | 235 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.24 | 2.47 | 195 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.24 | 0.20 | 72 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 43.3% | 50.6% | 417 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.3% (29/67)Home covered 48.4% (30/62)Favorite covered 48.5% (33/68)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 8:00 PM ET
Southern61
Minnesota79
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 140
SPREADSouthern +24.562%
OVER / UNDERUnder 142.555%
Win chance · Minnesota favored
OUR PICKSouthern +24.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Southern at this line.
- Minnesota is at home against Southern.
- Southern went 17-17 last season.
- Minnesota went 15-18 last season.
RecordsSouthern 0-4 路 Minnesota 3-0
OfficialsKeith Kimble, Brian Dorsey, Jeffrey Anderson
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Southern returns about 8% of its minutes and added 14 transfers.
- Minnesota returns about 60% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Southern 0-4, Minnesota 3-0.
Official profiles: Keith Kimble, Brian Dorsey, Jeffrey Anderson
Keith KimbleOfficial 路 202 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Kimble | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 34.6 | 34.5 | 140 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.30 | 0.35 | 188 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.32 | 2.47 | 178 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.23 | 0.20 | 87 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 51.1% | 50.6% | 223 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.1% (256/501)Home covered 52.5% (214/408)Favorite covered 48.5% (243/501)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Brian DorseyOfficial 路 190 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Dorsey | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.3 | 34.5 | 108 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.39 | 0.35 | 93 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.13 | 2.47 | 222 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.20 | 0.20 | 139 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 53.1% | 50.6% | 157 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.1% (230/433)Home covered 49.9% (182/365)Favorite covered 46.3% (201/434)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jeffrey AndersonOfficial 路 167 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Anderson | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.2 | 34.5 | 112 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.28 | 0.35 | 207 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.57 | 2.47 | 108 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.22 | 0.20 | 96 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 52.4% | 50.6% | 174 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.4% (174/332)Home covered 47.5% (140/295)Favorite covered 47.7% (159/333)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 8:00 PM ET
Oklahoma State69
Texas A&M88
FINAL · we projected 82 – 86Projected total 168
SPREADOklahoma State +8.560%
OVER / UNDERUnder 179.574%
Win chance · Texas A&M favored
OUR PICKOklahoma State +8.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Oklahoma State at this line.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Texas A&M is at home against Oklahoma State.
- Oklahoma State went 20-15 last season.
- Texas A&M went 22-12 last season.
RecordsOklahoma State 2-0 路 Texas A&M 3-0
Players gradeOklahoma State #29 路 Texas A&M #50
Record gradeOklahoma State #107 路 Texas A&M #86
OfficialsByron Jarrett, Pat Adams, Doug Sirmons
Ref watchDoug Sirmons: unders hit 57% of his 466 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Oklahoma State returns about 32% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- Texas A&M returns about 26% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Oklahoma State 2-0, Texas A&M 3-0.
Official profiles: Byron Jarrett, Pat Adams, Doug Sirmons
Byron JarrettOfficial 路 164 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Jarrett | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.5 | 34.5 | 98 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.36 | 0.35 | 127 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.27 | 2.47 | 186 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.21 | 0.20 | 119 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 52.6% | 50.6% | 165 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.6% (209/397)Home covered 50.3% (163/324)Favorite covered 53.7% (213/397)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Pat AdamsOfficial 路 137 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Adams | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.4 | 34.5 | 100 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.34 | 0.35 | 144 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.15 | 2.47 | 219 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.20 | 0.20 | 143 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 51.2% | 50.6% | 216 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.2% (185/361)Home covered 48.6% (135/278)Favorite covered 48.3% (174/360)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Doug SirmonsOfficial 路 212 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
| Measure | Sirmons | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 31.7 | 34.5 | 256 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.37 | 0.35 | 117 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.00 | 2.47 | 251 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.18 | 0.20 | 174 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 42.7% | 50.6% | 426 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 42.7% (199/466)Home covered 54.2% (211/389)Favorite covered 53.0% (246/464)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 8:00 PM ET
Loyola Marymount75
South Alabama70
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 145
SPREADLoyola Marymount -1.557%
OVER / UNDEROver 141.555%
Win chance · Loyola Marymount favored
OUR PICKLoyola Marymount -1.5SPREADLOSS
70Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like Loyola Marymount at this line; neutral floor.
- South Alabama and Loyola Marymount meet on a neutral floor.
- Loyola Marymount went 15-17 last season.
- South Alabama went 21-12 last season.
RecordsLoyola Marymount 1-2 路 South Alabama 1-2
WherePensacola Bay Center (neutral floor)
OfficialsSteve Orkus, Owen Shortt
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Loyola Marymount returns about 13% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 3 freshmen.
- South Alabama returns about 23% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
- Records coming in: Loyola Marymount 1-2, South Alabama 1-2.
Official profiles: Steve Orkus, Owen Shortt
Steve OrkusOfficial 路 19 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 19 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
| Measure | Orkus | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.6 | 34.5 | |
| Technicals per game | 0.26 | 0.35 | |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.37 | 2.47 | |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.05 | 0.20 | |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 47.4% | 50.6% | 341 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.4% (46/97)Home covered 42.4% (36/85)Favorite covered 51.0% (50/98)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Owen ShorttOfficial 路 173 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Shortt | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.4 | 34.5 | 102 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.24 | 0.35 | 232 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.41 | 2.47 | 148 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.14 | 0.20 | 226 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 53.4% | 50.6% | 148 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.4% (206/386)Home covered 50.8% (162/319)Favorite covered 49.6% (192/387)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Richmond
@Southern Illinois75–72proj
Thu Nov 12 路 8:00 PM ETNo pick
Richmond75
Southern Illinois72
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 147
OVER / UNDERUnder 151.560%
Win chance · Richmond favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
- Southern Illinois is at home against Richmond.
- Richmond went 15-17 last season.
- Southern Illinois went 16-16 last season.
Out: RichmondJ. McCaffery
RecordsRichmond 3-0 路 Southern Illinois 1-1
OfficialsBret Smith, Jeff Campbell, Jeff Malham
Ref notesMalham: Calls it tight: 37.7 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,414 in 64 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Richmond returns about 28% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- Southern Illinois returns about 57% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- Richmond is without J. McCaffery.
Official profiles: Bret Smith, Jeff Campbell, Jeff Malham
Bret SmithOfficial 路 171 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Smith | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 33.2 | 34.5 | 216 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.49 | 0.35 | 38 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.37 | 2.47 | 161 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.26 | 0.20 | 59 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 48.9% | 50.6% | 300 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.9% (182/372)Home covered 52.1% (162/311)Favorite covered 48.5% (180/371)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jeff CampbellOfficial 路 73 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Campbell | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.9 | 34.5 | 71 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.59 | 0.35 | 15 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.77 | 2.47 | 73 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 153 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 56.5% | 50.6% | 73 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.5% (70/124)Home covered 54.9% (62/113)Favorite covered 50.4% (62/123)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jeff MalhamOfficial 路 64 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high).
- Calls it tight: 37.7 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,414 in 64 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Malham | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 37.7 | 34.5 | 19 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.39 | 0.35 | 99 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.34 | 2.47 | 172 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 165 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 56.1% | 50.6% | 85 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.1% (97/173)Home covered 54.2% (83/153)Favorite covered 45.1% (79/175)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 9:00 PM ET
New Mexico State58
UTEP60
FINAL · we projected 71 – 76Projected total 147
SPREADUTEP -4.552%
OVER / UNDEROver 145.553%
Win chance · UTEP favored
OUR PICKUTEP -4.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like UTEP at this line; New Mexico State without G. Warren, S. Payne; home court.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- UTEP is at home against New Mexico State.
- New Mexico State went 16-16 last season.
- UTEP went 11-20 last season.
Out: New Mexico StateG. Warren, S. Payne
RecordsNew Mexico State 1-1 路 UTEP 1-1
Players gradeNew Mexico State #233 路 UTEP #182
Record gradeNew Mexico State #196 路 UTEP #292
OfficialsMichael Irving, Earl Walton, Alfred Smith
Ref watchEarl Walton: unders hit 51% of his 399 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- New Mexico State returns about 22% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 5 freshmen.
- UTEP returns about 0% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 7 freshmen.
- New Mexico State is without G. Warren, S. Payne.
Official profiles: Michael Irving, Earl Walton, Alfred Smith
Michael IrvingOfficial 路 146 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Irving | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 35.5 | 34.5 | 92 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.29 | 0.35 | 189 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.10 | 2.47 | 228 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.12 | 0.20 | 248 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 50.3% | 50.6% | 249 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.3% (186/370)Home covered 52.2% (157/301)Favorite covered 49.9% (184/369)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Earl WaltonOfficial 路 155 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
| Measure | Walton | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 36.1 | 34.5 | 62 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.15 | 0.35 | 278 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.26 | 2.47 | 193 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.12 | 0.20 | 256 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.4% | 50.6% | 287 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.4% (197/399)Home covered 45.8% (154/336)Favorite covered 48.4% (193/399)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Alfred SmithOfficial 路 111 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Smith | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 36.1 | 34.5 | 60 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.40 | 0.35 | 90 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 1.76 | 2.47 | 275 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.23 | 0.20 | 93 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 49.0% | 50.6% | 299 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.0% (123/251)Home covered 50.5% (106/210)Favorite covered 55.4% (138/249)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Thu Nov 12 路 10:00 PM ET
UC Riverside80
San Jos茅 State75
FINAL · we projected 74 – 80Projected total 154
SPREADUC Riverside +8.556%
OVER / UNDEROver 153.551%
Win chance · San Jos茅 State favored
OUR PICKUC Riverside +8.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)Our power numbers like UC Riverside at this line.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- San Jos茅 State is at home against UC Riverside.
- UC Riverside went 10-22 last season.
- San Jos茅 State went 9-24 last season.
RecordsUC Riverside 2-0 路 San Jos茅 State 1-1
Players gradeUC Riverside #180 路 San Jos茅 State #123
Record gradeUC Riverside #150 路 San Jos茅 State #184
OfficialsMike Littlewood, Nate Harris, Luke Schumer
Ref notesSchumer: Calls it tight: 38.4 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,799 in 99 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- UC Riverside returns about 18% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 4 freshmen.
- San Jos茅 State returns about 8% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 5 freshmen.
- Records coming in: UC Riverside 2-0, San Jos茅 State 1-1.
Official profiles: Mike Littlewood, Nate Harris, Luke Schumer
Mike LittlewoodOfficial 路 140 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Littlewood | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 36.1 | 34.5 | 61 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.29 | 0.35 | 192 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.57 | 2.47 | 111 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.18 | 0.20 | 183 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 54.2% | 50.6% | 135 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.2% (137/253)Home covered 52.1% (112/215)Favorite covered 48.6% (123/253)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Nate HarrisOfficial 路 141 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Harris | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 36.6 | 34.5 | 42 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.32 | 0.35 | 165 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.17 | 2.47 | 216 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.11 | 0.20 | 260 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 55.2% | 50.6% | 106 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.2% (169/306)Home covered 48.0% (122/254)Favorite covered 55.9% (170/304)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Luke SchumerOfficial 路 99 games 路 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high).
- Calls it tight: 38.4 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,799 in 99 games, 2024-26)
| Measure | Schumer | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls per game | 38.4 | 34.5 | 6 of 284 |
| Technicals per game | 0.25 | 0.35 | 226 of 284 |
| Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points | 2.56 | 2.47 | 116 of 284 |
| Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call | 0.19 | 0.20 | 151 of 284 |
| Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games | 56.4% | 50.6% | 78 of 462 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.4% (93/165)Home covered 41.6% (64/154)Favorite covered 43.5% (73/168)Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.