BetSharpr
Updated Nov 14, 11:13 PM ET
TUE NOV 10
TUESDAY NOV 10 graded picks
Went 17-16 on the day
AP Top 25 8 games
Tue Nov 10 · 6:00 PM ET
1Florida81
Florida State72
FINAL · we projected 82 – 78Projected total 160
SPREADFlorida State +9.562%
OVER / UNDERUnder 164.560%
57%
43%
Win chance · Florida favored
OUR PICKFlorida State +9.5SPREADWIN
0Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Florida State at this line; home court.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
  • Florida State is at home against No. 1 Florida.
  • Florida went 27-8 last season.
  • Florida State went 18-15 last season.
RecordsFlorida 3-0 · Florida State 2-1
Players gradeFlorida #1 · Florida State #62
Record gradeFlorida #1 · Florida State #61
OfficialsJeb Hartness, Tony Chiazza
Ref watchTony Chiazza: unders hit 56% of his 436 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Florida returns about 79% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Florida State returns about 16% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 8 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Florida 3-0, Florida State 2-1.
Official profiles: Jeb Hartness, Tony Chiazza
Jeb HartnessOfficial · 164 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureHartnessLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.034.5118 of 284
Technicals per game0.300.35182 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.262.47192 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.150.20224 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.0%50.6%298 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.0% (199/406)Home covered 53.3% (178/334)Favorite covered 49.5% (200/404)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tony ChiazzaOfficial · 177 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureChiazzaLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.934.5187 of 284
Technicals per game0.440.3559 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.312.47180 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20213 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games44.5%50.6%398 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.5% (194/436)Home covered 47.0% (175/372)Favorite covered 49.0% (213/435)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
5Michigan State79
2Duke73
FINAL · we projected 71 – 75Projected total 146
SPREADMichigan State +6.555%
OVER / UNDERUnder 147.554%
42%
58%
Win chance · Duke favored
OUR PICKMichigan State +6.5SPREADWIN
0Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Michigan State at this line; neutral floor.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
  • No. 2 Duke and No. 5 Michigan State meet on a neutral floor.
  • Michigan State went 27-8 last season.
  • Duke went 35-3 last season.
RecordsMichigan State 3-0 · Duke 2-1
Players gradeMichigan State #7 · Duke #2
Record gradeMichigan State #2 · Duke #141
WhereUnited Center (neutral floor)
OfficialsRon Groover, Keith Kimble, Burt Smith
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Michigan State returns about 60% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Duke returns about 43% of its minutes and added 3 transfers and 6 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Michigan State 3-0, Duke 2-1.
Official profiles: Ron Groover, Keith Kimble
Ron GrooverOfficial · 215 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureGrooverLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.934.5224 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3591 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.202.47210 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.120.20250 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.9%50.6%229 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.9% (264/519)Home covered 51.0% (223/437)Favorite covered 50.9% (262/515)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Keith KimbleOfficial · 202 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureKimbleLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.634.5140 of 284
Technicals per game0.300.35188 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.322.47178 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.230.2087 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.1%50.6%223 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.1% (256/501)Home covered 52.5% (214/408)Favorite covered 48.5% (243/501)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:15 PM ET
Memphis81
22Vanderbilt105
FINAL · we projected 74 – 84Projected total 158
SPREADMemphis +16.564%
OVER / UNDERUnder 161.557%
30%
70%
Win chance · Vanderbilt favored
OUR PICKMemphis +16.5SPREADLOSS
0Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Memphis at this line.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
  • No. 22 Vanderbilt is at home against Memphis.
  • Memphis went 13-19 last season.
  • Vanderbilt went 27-9 last season.
RecordsMemphis 2-1 · Vanderbilt 3-0
Players gradeMemphis #69 · Vanderbilt #23
Record gradeMemphis #7 · Vanderbilt #11
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Memphis returns about 11% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Vanderbilt returns about 26% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 7 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Memphis 2-1, Vanderbilt 3-0.
3Illinois @16Texas Tech78–84FINAL
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ETNo pick
3Illinois78
16Texas Tech84
FINAL · we projected 78 – 77Projected total 155
OVER / UNDERUnder 166.572%
52%
48%
Win chance · Illinois favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass.
✗ Moneyline✓ Total
  • No. 16 Texas Tech is at home against No. 3 Illinois.
  • Illinois went 28-9 last season.
  • Texas Tech went 23-11 last season.
RecordsIllinois 2-1 · Texas Tech 3-0
Players gradeIllinois #5 · Texas Tech #6
Record gradeIllinois #48 · Texas Tech #19
OfficialsKipp Kissinger, Marques Pettigrew, Jeffrey Anderson
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Illinois returns about 57% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 6 freshmen.
  • Texas Tech returns about 34% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Texas Tech plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.
Loud arena: United Supermarkets Arena, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball
Official profiles: Kipp Kissinger, Marques Pettigrew, Jeffrey Anderson
Kipp KissingerOfficial · 234 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureKissingerLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.534.5239 of 284
Technicals per game0.500.3532 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.972.47256 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20182 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games44.9%50.6%393 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.9% (237/528)Home covered 53.0% (229/432)Favorite covered 51.9% (273/526)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Marques PettigrewOfficial · 193 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasurePettigrewLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.134.5171 of 284
Technicals per game0.390.35104 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.892.47265 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20167 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.7%50.6%332 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.7% (200/419)Home covered 47.4% (152/321)Favorite covered 47.5% (200/421)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jeffrey AndersonOfficial · 167 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureAndersonLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.234.5112 of 284
Technicals per game0.280.35207 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.572.47108 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.220.2096 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games52.4%50.6%174 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.4% (174/332)Home covered 47.5% (140/295)Favorite covered 47.7% (159/333)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Northern Arizona @12Arizona59–90FINAL
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ETNo pick
Northern Arizona59
12Arizona90
FINAL · we projected 65 – 90Projected total 155
OVER / UNDERUnder 157.555%
10%
90%
Win chance · Arizona favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass.
✓ Moneyline✓ Total
  • No. 12 Arizona is at home against Northern Arizona.
  • Northern Arizona went 10-22 last season.
  • Arizona went 36-3 last season.
RecordsNorthern Arizona 0-3 · Arizona 2-1
Players gradeNorthern Arizona #250 · Arizona #14
Record gradeNorthern Arizona #233 · Arizona #80
OfficialsDeldre Carr, Chance Moore
Ref watchDeldre Carr: unders hit 56% of his 277 games since 2021-22; Chance Moore: unders hit 56% of his 349 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesMoore: Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (5,193 in 165 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Northern Arizona returns about 38% of its minutes and added 3 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Arizona returns about 28% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Arizona plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.
Loud arena: the McKale Center, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profiles: Deldre Carr, Chance Moore
Deldre CarrOfficial · 97 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureCarrLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.334.5161 of 284
Technicals per game0.330.35155 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.072.47234 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20170 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games44.4%50.6%401 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.4% (123/277)Home covered 47.4% (108/228)Favorite covered 46.4% (129/278)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Chance MooreOfficial · 165 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
  • Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (5,193 in 165 games, 2024-26)
MeasureMooreLeagueRank
Fouls per game31.534.5261 of 284
Technicals per game0.420.3570 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.902.47263 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.150.20225 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.8%50.6%410 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.8% (153/349)Home covered 54.2% (163/301)Favorite covered 57.1% (200/350)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Bucknell61
6Virginia95
FINAL · we projected 61 – 90Projected total 151
SPREADBucknell +37.567%
OVER / UNDERUnder 151.553%
6%
94%
Win chance · Virginia favored
OUR PICKBucknell +37.5SPREADWIN
0Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Bucknell at this line.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
  • No. 6 Virginia is at home against Bucknell.
  • Bucknell went 10-23 last season.
  • Virginia went 30-6 last season.
RecordsBucknell 0-3 · Virginia 4-0
Players gradeBucknell #357 · Virginia #27
Record gradeBucknell #347 · Virginia #14
OfficialsTony Henderson, Jemel Spearman, Ryan Sassano
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Bucknell returns about 35% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 7 freshmen.
  • Virginia returns about 51% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Bucknell 0-3, Virginia 4-0.
Official profiles: Tony Henderson, Jemel Spearman, Ryan Sassano
Tony HendersonOfficial · 161 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureHendersonLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.634.5139 of 284
Technicals per game0.480.3540 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.852.47268 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.120.20252 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.6%50.6%311 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.6% (172/354)Home covered 49.5% (145/293)Favorite covered 48.5% (172/355)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jemel SpearmanOfficial · 111 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSpearmanLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.934.569 of 284
Technicals per game0.450.3551 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.552.47119 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20205 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games57.4%50.6%58 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.4% (144/251)Home covered 47.9% (101/211)Favorite covered 49.8% (124/249)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Ryan SassanoOfficial · 116 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSassanoLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.534.597 of 284
Technicals per game0.340.35143 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.342.47171 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.130.20242 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games53.1%50.6%158 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.1% (111/209)Home covered 53.1% (102/192)Favorite covered 46.6% (97/208)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Queens University82
23BYU98
FINAL · we projected 76 – 94Projected total 170
SPREADQueens University +28.570%
OVER / UNDERUnder 181.573%
16%
84%
Win chance · BYU favored
OUR PICKQueens University +28.5SPREADWIN
0Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Queens University at this line.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
  • No. 23 BYU is at home against Queens University.
  • Queens University went 21-14 last season.
  • BYU went 23-12 last season.
RecordsQueens University 2-2 · BYU 3-0
Players gradeQueens University #140 · BYU #18
Record gradeQueens University #53 · BYU #4
OfficialsDarron George
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Queens University returns about 40% of its minutes and added 3 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • BYU returns about 27% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 6 freshmen.
  • BYU plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.
Loud arena: the Marriott Center, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profile: Darron George
Darron GeorgeOfficial · 124 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureGeorgeLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.234.555 of 284
Technicals per game0.370.35113 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.382.47158 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.230.2092 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games54.1%50.6%137 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.1% (166/307)Home covered 50.0% (122/244)Favorite covered 46.9% (144/307)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
15Kansas @24Kentucky89–69FINAL
Tue Nov 10 · 9:58 PM ETNo pick
15Kansas89
24Kentucky69
FINAL · we projected 79 – 75Projected total 154
OVER / UNDERUnder 158.559%
59%
41%
Win chance · Kansas favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass.
✓ Moneyline✓ Total
  • No. 24 Kentucky and No. 15 Kansas meet on a neutral floor.
  • Kansas went 24-11 last season.
  • Kentucky went 22-14 last season.
RecordsKansas 3-0 · Kentucky 2-1
Players gradeKansas #3 · Kentucky #33
Record gradeKansas #8 · Kentucky #66
WhereUnited Center (neutral floor)
OfficialsTony Padilla, Paul Szelc, Pat Adams
Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Kansas returns about 39% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 7 freshmen.
  • Kentucky returns about 21% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Kansas 3-0, Kentucky 2-1.
Official profiles: Tony Padilla, Paul Szelc, Pat Adams
Tony PadillaOfficial · 202 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasurePadillaLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.334.5109 of 284
Technicals per game0.490.3534 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.382.47159 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20132 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.5%50.6%280 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.5% (239/483)Home covered 44.2% (170/385)Favorite covered 45.8% (220/480)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Paul SzelcOfficial · 171 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSzelcLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.134.530 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3584 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.492.47130 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20166 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.0%50.6%297 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.0% (203/414)Home covered 55.4% (181/327)Favorite covered 49.2% (203/413)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Pat AdamsOfficial · 137 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureAdamsLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.434.5100 of 284
Technicals per game0.340.35144 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.152.47219 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20143 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.2%50.6%216 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.2% (185/361)Home covered 48.6% (135/278)Favorite covered 48.3% (174/360)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
More games 48 games
Tue Nov 10 · 6:30 PM ET
NJIT64
Rutgers81
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 145
SPREADNJIT +24.564%
OVER / UNDEROver 143.553%
19%
81%
Win chance · Rutgers favored
OUR PICKNJIT +24.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like NJIT at this line; Rutgers without D. Buca.
  • Rutgers is at home against NJIT.
  • NJIT went 16-17 last season.
  • Rutgers went 14-20 last season.
Out: RutgersD. Buca
RecordsNJIT 1-2 · Rutgers 1-0
OfficialsChad Barlow, Brian McNutt, Randy Richardson
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • NJIT returns about 38% of its minutes and added 8 transfers.
  • Rutgers returns about 46% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Rutgers is without D. Buca.
Official profiles: Chad Barlow, Brian McNutt, Randy Richardson
Chad BarlowOfficial · 114 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureBarlowLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.434.5158 of 284
Technicals per game0.450.3553 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.582.47280 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.080.20279 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.5%50.6%278 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.5% (146/295)Home covered 51.6% (129/250)Favorite covered 47.6% (140/294)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Brian McNuttOfficial · 94 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureMcNuttLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.434.5204 of 284
Technicals per game0.240.35229 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.832.47269 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20108 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.1%50.6%324 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.1% (114/237)Home covered 51.4% (109/212)Favorite covered 50.2% (119/237)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Randy RichardsonOfficial · 157 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureRichardsonLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.334.5160 of 284
Technicals per game0.370.35116 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.432.47141 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20115 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games55.9%50.6%90 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.9% (193/345)Home covered 47.4% (135/285)Favorite covered 46.0% (159/346)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 6:30 PM ET
Delaware State63
Georgetown83
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 146
SPREADDelaware State +30.570%
OVER / UNDEROver 143.557%
15%
85%
Win chance · Georgetown favored
OUR PICKDelaware State +30.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Delaware State at this line; Georgetown without NJ Benson, V. Miller.
  • Georgetown is at home against Delaware State.
  • Delaware State went 8-23 last season.
  • Georgetown went 16-18 last season.
Out: GeorgetownNJ Benson, V. Miller
RecordsDelaware State 1-1 · Georgetown 2-0
OfficialsJohn Cahill Jr., Connor Mooney
Ref watchConnor Mooney: unders hit 57% of his 130 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Delaware State returns about 8% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Georgetown returns about 41% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Georgetown is without NJ Benson, V. Miller.
Official profiles: John Cahill Jr., Connor Mooney
John Cahill Jr.Official · 123 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureJr.LeagueRank
Fouls per game31.834.5254 of 284
Technicals per game0.370.35110 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.182.4719 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20129 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.6%50.6%309 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.6% (105/216)Home covered 48.3% (99/205)Favorite covered 48.1% (103/214)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Connor MooneyOfficial · 68 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureMooneyLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.934.5228 of 284
Technicals per game0.220.35248 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.942.47260 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20187 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.1%50.6%420 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.1% (56/130)Home covered 50.0% (59/118)Favorite covered 51.9% (67/129)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Washington State73
Duquesne78
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 151
SPREADDuquesne -3.554%
OVER / UNDEROver 145.561%
39%
61%
Win chance · Duquesne favored
OUR PICKDuquesne -3.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Duquesne at this line; home court.
  • Duquesne is at home against Washington State.
  • Washington State went 12-20 last season.
  • Duquesne went 18-15 last season.
RecordsWashington State 0-2 · Duquesne 2-0
OfficialsLamar Simpson, Nick Terry
Ref watchLamar Simpson: unders hit 56% of his 327 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesSimpson: Lets them play: 30.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,028 in 99 games, 2024-26). Terry: Calls it tight: 38.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,748 in 45 games, 2024-26).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Washington State returns about 0% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Duquesne returns about 9% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Washington State 0-2, Duquesne 2-0.
Official profiles: Lamar Simpson, Nick Terry
Lamar SimpsonOfficial · 99 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
  • Lets them play: 30.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,028 in 99 games, 2024-26)
MeasureSimpsonLeagueRank
Fouls per game30.634.5274 of 284
Technicals per game0.170.35272 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.422.47143 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.080.20278 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.7%50.6%414 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.7% (143/327)Home covered 43.7% (122/279)Favorite covered 48.6% (158/325)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Nick TerryOfficial · 45 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high).
  • Calls it tight: 38.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,748 in 45 games, 2024-26)
MeasureTerryLeagueRank
Fouls per game38.834.52 of 284
Technicals per game0.290.35196 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.582.474 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20184 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games66.7%50.6%4 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 66.7% (52/78)Home covered 42.9% (30/70)Favorite covered 41.0% (32/78)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
La Salle69
Villanova84
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 153
SPREADLa Salle +23.567%
OVER / UNDERUnder 157.558%
23%
77%
Win chance · Villanova favored
OUR PICKLa Salle +23.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like La Salle at this line.
  • Villanova is at home against La Salle.
  • La Salle went 9-23 last season.
  • Villanova went 24-9 last season.
RecordsLa Salle 1-1 · Villanova 1-1
OfficialsBrian O'Connell, Matt Potter, Michael Luckie
Ref watchBrian O'Connell: unders hit 57% of his 422 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • La Salle returns about 38% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Villanova returns about 15% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Villanova plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.
Loud arena: Finneran Pavilion, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profiles: Brian O'Connell, Matt Potter, Michael Luckie
Brian O'ConnellOfficial · 164 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureO'ConnellLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.634.5236 of 284
Technicals per game0.340.35150 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.872.47267 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20212 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games42.7%50.6%428 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 42.7% (180/422)Home covered 52.6% (192/365)Favorite covered 47.3% (200/423)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Matt PotterOfficial · 191 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasurePotterLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.834.5233 of 284
Technicals per game0.190.35267 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.262.4713 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.260.2055 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games44.4%50.6%399 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 44.4% (188/423)Home covered 46.2% (166/359)Favorite covered 47.8% (202/423)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Michael LuckieOfficial · 103 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureLuckieLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.634.586 of 284
Technicals per game0.210.35252 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.752.4776 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20105 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games57.6%50.6%55 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.6% (141/245)Home covered 46.4% (102/220)Favorite covered 49.0% (121/247)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Wyoming74
North Carolina85
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 159
SPREADWyoming +15.561%
OVER / UNDEROver 155.557%
30%
70%
Win chance · North Carolina favored
OUR PICKWyoming +15.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Wyoming at this line; North Carolina without M. Smith.
  • North Carolina is at home against Wyoming.
  • Wyoming went 18-15 last season.
  • North Carolina went 24-9 last season.
Out: North CarolinaM. Smith
RecordsWyoming 2-0 · North Carolina 2-0
OfficialsPat Driscoll, Jerry Heater, Brent Hampton
Ref watchPat Driscoll: unders hit 53% of his 388 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesHeater: Calls it tight: 37.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,804 in 127 games, 2024-26).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Wyoming returns about 45% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • North Carolina returns about 28% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • North Carolina is without M. Smith.
Loud arena: the Dean E. Smith Center, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profiles: Pat Driscoll, Jerry Heater, Brent Hampton
Pat DriscollOfficial · 154 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureDriscollLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.934.5226 of 284
Technicals per game0.410.3577 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.482.47134 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20189 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games46.9%50.6%353 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.9% (182/388)Home covered 40.2% (135/336)Favorite covered 49.7% (194/390)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jerry HeaterOfficial · 127 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high).
  • Calls it tight: 37.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,804 in 127 games, 2024-26)
MeasureHeaterLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.834.516 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3585 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.452.47137 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.170.20191 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games57.7%50.6%51 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.7% (168/291)Home covered 50.6% (126/249)Favorite covered 50.3% (146/290)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Brent HamptonOfficial · 84 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureHamptonLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.934.5227 of 284
Technicals per game0.350.35142 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.512.47128 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.110.20259 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games56.4%50.6%76 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.4% (181/321)Home covered 45.5% (122/268)Favorite covered 47.8% (153/320)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
South Alabama68
UCF83
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 151
SPREADUCF -13.554%
OVER / UNDEROver 150.551%
21%
79%
Win chance · UCF favored
OUR PICKUCF -13.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like UCF at this line; home court.
  • UCF is at home against South Alabama.
  • South Alabama went 21-12 last season.
  • UCF went 21-12 last season.
RecordsSouth Alabama 1-1 · UCF 2-0
OfficialsRick Crawford, Chris Pacsi, James Duke
Ref notesPacsi: Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (54 in 89 games). Duke: Quick with technicals: 0.59 a game vs 0.35 average (33 in 56 games).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • South Alabama returns about 22% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • UCF returns about 35% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: South Alabama 1-1, UCF 2-0.
Official profiles: Rick Crawford, Chris Pacsi, James Duke
Rick CrawfordOfficial · 133 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureCrawfordLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.834.5190 of 284
Technicals per game0.440.3558 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.882.47266 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.140.20228 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games52.4%50.6%171 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.4% (183/349)Home covered 50.2% (152/303)Favorite covered 48.6% (170/350)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Chris PacsiOfficial · 89 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (54 in 89 games)
MeasurePacsiLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.534.591 of 284
Technicals per game0.610.3511 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.392.47284 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.130.20239 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.1%50.6%292 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.1% (85/173)Home covered 55.0% (83/151)Favorite covered 55.5% (96/173)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
James DukeOfficial · 56 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.59 a game vs 0.35 average (33 in 56 games)
MeasureDukeLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.634.590 of 284
Technicals per game0.590.3514 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.052.47239 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20104 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.2%50.6%291 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.2% (61/124)Home covered 47.2% (50/106)Favorite covered 46.8% (58/124)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Loyola Marymount73
Troy74
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 147
SPREADTroy +1.555%
OVER / UNDEROver 145.553%
48%
52%
Win chance · Troy favored
OUR PICKTroy +1.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Troy at this line; home court.
  • Troy is at home against Loyola Marymount.
  • Loyola Marymount went 15-17 last season.
  • Troy went 22-12 last season.
RecordsLoyola Marymount 1-1 · Troy 0-2
OfficialsMatt Jarman
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Loyola Marymount returns about 13% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Troy returns about 9% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Loyola Marymount 1-1, Troy 0-2.
Official profile: Matt Jarman
Matt JarmanOfficial · 67 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureJarmanLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.234.5249 of 284
Technicals per game0.180.35271 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.522.47125 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20149 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games46.4%50.6%367 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.4% (65/140)Home covered 47.2% (60/127)Favorite covered 50.0% (70/140)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Iona68
Fordham77
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 145
SPREADIona +12.558%
OVER / UNDEROver 141.558%
34%
66%
Win chance · Fordham favored
OUR PICKIona +12.5SPREAD
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Iona at this line.
  • Fordham is at home against Iona.
  • Iona went 18-14 last season.
  • Fordham went 17-15 last season.
RecordsIona 2-1 · Fordham 1-1
OfficialsTony Crisp, Mike Millione, Connor Penn
Ref notesPenn: Calls it tight: 39.4 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,049 in 52 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Iona returns about 27% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Fordham returns about 49% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Iona 2-1, Fordham 1-1.
Official profiles: Tony Crisp, Mike Millione, Connor Penn
Tony CrispOfficial · 104 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureCrispLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.134.528 of 284
Technicals per game0.390.3594 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.622.47100 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20201 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games54.2%50.6%133 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.2% (130/240)Home covered 48.1% (99/206)Favorite covered 44.8% (107/239)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Mike MillioneOfficial · 89 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureMillioneLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.034.5121 of 284
Technicals per game0.240.35241 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.582.47107 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20106 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.8%50.6%193 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.8% (102/197)Home covered 48.8% (84/172)Favorite covered 48.2% (96/199)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Connor PennOfficial · 52 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high).
  • Calls it tight: 39.4 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,049 in 52 games, 2024-26)
MeasurePennLeagueRank
Fouls per game39.434.51 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3583 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.252.4715 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.330.2016 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.5%50.6%281 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.5% (46/93)Home covered 47.0% (39/83)Favorite covered 44.6% (41/92)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Siena76
Dayton88
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 164
SPREADSiena +14.555%
OVER / UNDEROver 158.561%
27%
73%
Win chance · Dayton favored
OUR PICKSiena +14.5SPREAD
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Siena at this line; Dayton without Z. Lowery.
  • Dayton is at home against Siena.
  • Siena went 23-12 last season.
  • Dayton went 25-12 last season.
Out: SienaY. Steger
Out: DaytonZ. Lowery
RecordsSiena 1-1 · Dayton 1-1
OfficialsRon Tyburski, Steve McJunkins, Chase Shaw
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Siena returns about 13% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Dayton returns about 27% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Siena is without Y. Steger.
Loud arena: UD Arena, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profiles: Ron Tyburski, Steve McJunkins, Chase Shaw
Ron TyburskiOfficial · 59 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureTyburskiLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.434.5243 of 284
Technicals per game0.440.3556 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.102.4725 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.250.2062 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.6%50.6%239 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.6% (80/158)Home covered 50.8% (65/128)Favorite covered 50.0% (78/156)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Steve McJunkinsOfficial · 113 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureMcJunkinsLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.534.5151 of 284
Technicals per game0.260.35221 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.342.47173 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20169 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.7%50.6%237 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.7% (146/288)Home covered 46.8% (116/248)Favorite covered 49.0% (142/290)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Chase ShawOfficial · 121 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureShawLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.834.5129 of 284
Technicals per game0.430.3563 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.832.4763 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20122 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games56.7%50.6%71 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.7% (166/293)Home covered 47.2% (116/246)Favorite covered 47.8% (139/291)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Maine63
Rhode Island78
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 141
SPREADMaine +18.558%
OVER / UNDEROver 139.552%
23%
77%
Win chance · Rhode Island favored
OUR PICKMaine +18.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Maine at this line.
  • Rhode Island is at home against Maine.
  • Maine went 8-24 last season.
  • Rhode Island went 16-16 last season.
RecordsMaine 1-2 · Rhode Island 2-0
OfficialsNathan Farrell, Tim Smith, Stephen Sherrill
Ref watchNathan Farrell: unders hit 55% of his 382 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesFarrell: Lets them play: 30.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,782 in 155 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Maine returns about 40% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Rhode Island returns about 39% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Maine 1-2, Rhode Island 2-0.
Official profiles: Nathan Farrell, Tim Smith
Nathan FarrellOfficial · 155 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
  • Lets them play: 30.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,782 in 155 games, 2024-26)
MeasureFarrellLeagueRank
Fouls per game30.934.5271 of 284
Technicals per game0.320.35161 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.232.47199 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.100.20265 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games45.0%50.6%388 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 45.0% (172/382)Home covered 53.5% (175/327)Favorite covered 50.7% (194/383)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tim SmithOfficial · 138 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSmithLeagueRank
Fouls per game31.834.5252 of 284
Technicals per game0.250.35225 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.352.47170 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20161 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.7%50.6%271 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.7% (162/326)Home covered 49.5% (144/291)Favorite covered 49.7% (162/326)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Presbyterian65
NC State83
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 148
SPREADPresbyterian +19.555%
OVER / UNDERUnder 150.555%
19%
81%
Win chance · NC State favored
OUR PICKPresbyterian +19.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Presbyterian at this line.
  • NC State is at home against Presbyterian.
  • Presbyterian went 15-18 last season.
  • NC State went 20-14 last season.
RecordsPresbyterian 0-2 · NC State 2-0
OfficialsMark Schnur, Trey Styons, Kellen Milliner
Ref watchTrey Styons: unders hit 53% of his 218 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Presbyterian returns about 85% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • NC State returns about 27% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Presbyterian 0-2, NC State 2-0.
Official profiles: Mark Schnur, Trey Styons
Mark SchnurOfficial · 121 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSchnurLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.034.5122 of 284
Technicals per game0.350.35140 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.212.47206 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.170.20197 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.0%50.6%350 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.0% (132/281)Home covered 54.4% (130/239)Favorite covered 56.4% (159/282)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Trey StyonsOfficial · 99 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureStyonsLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.234.5115 of 284
Technicals per game0.360.35122 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.892.4749 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.270.2046 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games46.8%50.6%356 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.8% (102/218)Home covered 56.5% (104/184)Favorite covered 47.0% (102/217)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Army65
New Haven69
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 134
SPREADNew Haven +1.560%
OVER / UNDEROver 133.552%
43%
57%
Win chance · New Haven favored
OUR PICKNew Haven +1.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like New Haven at this line; home court.
  • New Haven is at home against Army.
  • Army went 11-21 last season.
  • New Haven went 14-17 last season.
RecordsArmy 1-1 · New Haven 0-2
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Army returns about 94% of its minutes and added 1 transfer and 5 freshmen.
  • New Haven returns about 56% of its minutes and added 13 transfers.
  • Records coming in: Army 1-1, New Haven 0-2.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Maryland Eastern Shore50
Boston College70
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 120
SPREADMaryland Eastern Shore +25.561%
OVER / UNDERUnder 127.565%
15%
85%
Win chance · Boston College favored
OUR PICKMaryland Eastern Shore +25.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Maryland Eastern Shore at this line; Boston College without J. Furphy.
  • Boston College is at home against Maryland Eastern Shore.
  • Maryland Eastern Shore went 9-23 last season.
  • Boston College went 11-20 last season.
Out: Boston CollegeJ. Furphy
RecordsMaryland Eastern Shore 1-2 · Boston College 2-0
OfficialsSean Hull, Leslie Jones, Justin McKie
Ref watchLeslie Jones: unders hit 52% of his 161 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Maryland Eastern Shore returns about 10% of its minutes and added 14 transfers.
  • Boston College returns about 0% of its minutes and added 12 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Boston College is without J. Furphy.
Official profiles: Sean Hull, Leslie Jones
Sean HullOfficial · 117 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureHullLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.634.5137 of 284
Technicals per game0.260.35222 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.392.47155 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.140.20235 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games53.7%50.6%142 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.7% (154/287)Home covered 50.2% (119/237)Favorite covered 49.8% (142/285)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Leslie JonesOfficial · 63 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureJonesLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.734.5192 of 284
Technicals per game0.300.35184 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.172.47215 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.100.20268 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.8%50.6%328 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.8% (77/161)Home covered 56.8% (88/155)Favorite covered 56.2% (90/160)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Virginia Tech71
Iowa70
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 141
SPREADVirginia Tech +3.559%
OVER / UNDEROver 140.552%
52%
48%
Win chance · Virginia Tech favored
OUR PICKVirginia Tech +3.5SPREADWIN
70Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Virginia Tech at this line; neutral floor.
  • Iowa and Virginia Tech meet on a neutral floor.
  • Virginia Tech went 19-13 last season.
  • Iowa went 24-13 last season.
RecordsVirginia Tech 2-0 · Iowa 2-0
WhereTyson Events Center (neutral floor)
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Virginia Tech returns about 45% of its minutes and added 11 transfers.
  • Iowa returns about 64% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Virginia Tech 2-0, Iowa 2-0.
Bradley @Davidson65–74proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Bradley65
Davidson74
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 139
OVER / UNDEROver 138.551%
33%
67%
Win chance · Davidson favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Davidson is at home against Bradley.
  • Bradley went 21-13 last season.
  • Davidson went 20-14 last season.
RecordsBradley 1-1 · Davidson 2-0
OfficialsEd Crenshaw Jr., Nathan Hall, Ed Corliss
Ref watchEd Corliss: unders hit 55% of his 309 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesHall: Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,282 in 136 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Bradley returns about 0% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Davidson returns about 60% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Bradley 1-1, Davidson 2-0.
Official profiles: Ed Crenshaw Jr., Nathan Hall, Ed Corliss
Ed Crenshaw Jr.Official · 51 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureJr.LeagueRank
Fouls per game36.234.557 of 284
Technicals per game0.430.3562 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.182.47214 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20145 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.9%50.6%190 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.9% (28/54)Home covered 59.6% (28/47)Favorite covered 55.6% (30/54)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Nathan HallOfficial · 136 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low).
  • Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,282 in 136 games, 2024-26)
MeasureHallLeagueRank
Fouls per game31.534.5260 of 284
Technicals per game0.410.3575 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.452.47138 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20176 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.3%50.6%316 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.3% (159/329)Home covered 46.3% (142/307)Favorite covered 50.6% (168/332)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Ed CorlissOfficial · 137 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureCorlissLeagueRank
Fouls per game31.834.5253 of 284
Technicals per game0.280.35206 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.492.47131 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20125 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games45.0%50.6%390 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 45.0% (139/309)Home covered 47.7% (127/266)Favorite covered 47.9% (146/305)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Wright State @Toledo77–76proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Wright State77
Toledo76
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 153
OVER / UNDERUnder 156.558%
51%
49%
Win chance · Wright State favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Toledo is at home against Wright State.
  • Wright State went 23-12 last season.
  • Toledo went 19-15 last season.
RecordsWright State 2-0 · Toledo 1-2
OfficialsRandy Heimerman, Bill Jacobson, John Floyd
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Wright State returns about 39% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Toledo returns about 56% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Wright State 2-0, Toledo 1-2.
Official profiles: Randy Heimerman, Bill Jacobson, John Floyd
Randy HeimermanOfficial · 59 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureHeimermanLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.534.5146 of 284
Technicals per game0.360.35132 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.372.47162 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.220.2099 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.8%50.6%304 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.8% (84/172)Home covered 49.7% (73/147)Favorite covered 50.9% (87/171)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Bill JacobsonOfficial · 14 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 14 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
MeasureJacobsonLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.034.5
Technicals per game0.290.35
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points0.712.47
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.070.20
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.0%50.6%257 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.0% (49/98)Home covered 58.9% (53/90)Favorite covered 57.1% (56/98)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
John FloydOfficial · 125 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureFloydLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.534.5147 of 284
Technicals per game0.420.3573 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.382.47160 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.280.2037 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.2%50.6%251 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.2% (147/293)Home covered 52.3% (134/256)Favorite covered 47.1% (139/295)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Mercer @Georgia Southern77–78proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Mercer77
Georgia Southern78
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 155
OVER / UNDERUnder 164.571%
48%
52%
Win chance · Georgia Southern favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Georgia Southern is at home against Mercer.
  • Mercer went 19-13 last season.
  • Georgia Southern went 21-16 last season.
RecordsMercer 1-2 · Georgia Southern 1-1
OfficialsSidney Cohen, Todd Austin
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Mercer returns about 30% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Georgia Southern returns about 8% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Mercer 1-2, Georgia Southern 1-1.
Official profiles: Sidney Cohen, Todd Austin
Sidney CohenOfficial · 50 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureCohenLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.134.5172 of 284
Technicals per game0.280.35201 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.542.47122 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.280.2036 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.3%50.6%343 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.3% (52/110)Home covered 44.9% (44/98)Favorite covered 46.9% (53/113)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Todd AustinOfficial · 141 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureAustinLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.934.5127 of 284
Technicals per game0.390.35102 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.702.4785 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.260.2060 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games55.0%50.6%109 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.0% (186/338)Home covered 54.2% (155/286)Favorite covered 52.7% (177/336)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Harvard @Northeastern76–75proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Harvard76
Northeastern75
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 151
OVER / UNDEROver 143.564%
51%
49%
Win chance · Harvard favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Northeastern is at home against Harvard.
  • Harvard went 17-12 last season.
  • Northeastern went 7-24 last season.
RecordsHarvard 2-0 · Northeastern 0-2
OfficialsAdam Vandenburgh, Josean Vega, Vasili Mallios
Ref watchAdam Vandenburgh: unders hit 58% of his 259 games since 2021-22; Josean Vega: unders hit 56% of his 121 games since 2021-22; Vasili Mallios: unders hit 57% of his 200 games since 2021-22. Whole crew leans under.
Ref notesVega: Lets them play: 28.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,229 in 43 games, 2024-26). Mallios: Lets them play: 29.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,430 in 115 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Harvard returns about 0% of its minutes and added 5 freshmen.
  • Northeastern returns about 36% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Harvard 2-0, Northeastern 0-2.
Official profiles: Adam Vandenburgh, Josean Vega, Vasili Mallios
Adam VandenburghOfficial · 110 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureVandenburghLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.034.5251 of 284
Technicals per game0.260.35217 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.922.4747 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20199 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games42.5%50.6%431 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 42.5% (110/259)Home covered 49.6% (119/240)Favorite covered 49.2% (127/258)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Josean VegaOfficial · 43 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
  • Lets them play: 28.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,229 in 43 games, 2024-26)
MeasureVegaLeagueRank
Fouls per game28.634.5284 of 284
Technicals per game0.330.35158 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.882.4751 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20203 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.8%50.6%412 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.8% (53/121)Home covered 50.4% (57/113)Favorite covered 49.6% (60/121)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Vasili MalliosOfficial · 115 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
  • Lets them play: 29.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,430 in 115 games, 2024-26)
MeasureMalliosLeagueRank
Fouls per game29.834.5281 of 284
Technicals per game0.430.3566 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.812.4769 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.230.2090 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.0%50.6%423 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.0% (86/200)Home covered 44.6% (86/193)Favorite covered 40.2% (80/199)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Eastern Kentucky @Georgia Tech70–85proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Eastern Kentucky70
Georgia Tech85
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 155
OVER / UNDERUnder 165.572%
23%
77%
Win chance · Georgia Tech favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Georgia Tech is at home against Eastern Kentucky.
  • Eastern Kentucky went 11-21 last season.
  • Georgia Tech went 11-20 last season.
RecordsEastern Kentucky 2-0 · Georgia Tech 2-0
OfficialsIsaac Barnett, Tommy Morrissey, Anthony Eades
Ref watchTommy Morrissey: unders hit 51% of his 410 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Eastern Kentucky returns about 0% of its minutes and added 3 freshmen.
  • Georgia Tech returns about 18% of its minutes and added 12 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Eastern Kentucky 2-0, Georgia Tech 2-0.
Official profiles: Isaac Barnett, Tommy Morrissey, Anthony Eades
Isaac BarnettOfficial · 111 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureBarnettLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.034.5117 of 284
Technicals per game0.300.35187 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.972.47255 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20141 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.2%50.6%218 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.2% (86/168)Home covered 55.2% (80/145)Favorite covered 57.5% (96/167)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tommy MorrisseyOfficial · 172 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureMorrisseyLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.234.5170 of 284
Technicals per game0.350.35137 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.042.47244 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20142 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.8%50.6%306 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.8% (200/410)Home covered 44.2% (153/346)Favorite covered 48.3% (197/408)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Anthony EadesOfficial · 112 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureEadesLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.334.554 of 284
Technicals per game0.310.35171 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.962.47257 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.130.20241 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games57.7%50.6%54 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.7% (158/274)Home covered 48.7% (111/228)Favorite covered 46.0% (126/274)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Elon @George Washington68–81proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Elon68
George Washington81
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 149
OVER / UNDEROver 147.554%
25%
75%
Win chance · George Washington favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • George Washington is at home against Elon.
  • Elon went 14-18 last season.
  • George Washington went 19-16 last season.
RecordsElon 2-0 · George Washington 2-0
OfficialsTim Kelly, Tyler Sandmann, Steven Perry Jr.
Ref notesSandmann: Lets them play: 30.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,433 in 79 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Elon returns about 26% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • George Washington returns about 12% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Records coming in: Elon 2-0, George Washington 2-0.
Official profiles: Tim Kelly, Tyler Sandmann, Steven Perry Jr.
Tim KellyOfficial · 74 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureKellyLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.934.568 of 284
Technicals per game0.310.35176 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.412.476 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.300.2031 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games55.9%50.6%93 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.9% (119/213)Home covered 47.9% (91/190)Favorite covered 50.5% (108/214)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tyler SandmannOfficial · 79 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low).
  • Lets them play: 30.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,433 in 79 games, 2024-26)
MeasureSandmannLeagueRank
Fouls per game30.834.5272 of 284
Technicals per game0.240.35234 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.752.4777 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.130.20246 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games46.9%50.6%354 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.9% (67/143)Home covered 46.3% (63/136)Favorite covered 48.6% (69/142)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Steven Perry Jr.Official · 42 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureJr.LeagueRank
Fouls per game31.334.5265 of 284
Technicals per game0.380.35108 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.102.47230 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.170.20195 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.0%50.6%266 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.0% (21/42)Home covered 53.8% (21/39)Favorite covered 57.1% (24/42)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Youngstown State @Central Michigan71–76proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Youngstown State71
Central Michigan76
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 147
OVER / UNDERUnder 152.561%
41%
59%
Win chance · Central Michigan favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Central Michigan is at home against Youngstown State.
  • Youngstown State went 15-17 last season.
  • Central Michigan went 10-21 last season.
RecordsYoungstown State 1-1 · Central Michigan 2-0
OfficialsJermaine Rogers, Chris Fuller, Johnee Gleich
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Youngstown State returns about 16% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Central Michigan returns about 51% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Youngstown State 1-1, Central Michigan 2-0.
Official profiles: Jermaine Rogers, Chris Fuller
Jermaine RogersOfficial · 44 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureRogersLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.734.537 of 284
Technicals per game0.200.35262 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.842.4760 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20124 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.2%50.6%319 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.2% (41/85)Home covered 53.8% (43/80)Favorite covered 49.4% (42/85)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Chris FullerOfficial · 37 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 37 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
MeasureFullerLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.134.5
Technicals per game0.430.35
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.892.47
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.5%50.6%208 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.5% (35/68)Home covered 52.4% (33/63)Favorite covered 55.1% (38/69)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Detroit Mercy @Xavier71–89proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Detroit Mercy71
Xavier89
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 160
OVER / UNDEROver 156.557%
17%
83%
Win chance · Xavier favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our number is 17 points off the line, too far to trust this early in the season.
  • Xavier is at home against Detroit Mercy.
  • Detroit Mercy went 17-15 last season.
  • Xavier went 15-18 last season.
Out: XavierB. Appelhans
RecordsDetroit Mercy 0-1 · Xavier 2-0
OfficialsJohn Gaffney, Justin Albrecht, Edward Corbett, Jr
Ref watchJohn Gaffney: unders hit 56% of his 419 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Detroit Mercy returns about 72% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Xavier returns about 22% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Xavier is without B. Appelhans.
Loud arena: the Cintas Center, a tough place for visiting teams
Official profiles: John Gaffney, Justin Albrecht
John GaffneyOfficial · 164 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureGaffneyLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.534.5241 of 284
Technicals per game0.310.35175 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.982.47254 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20211 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.9%50.6%408 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.9% (184/419)Home covered 45.5% (158/347)Favorite covered 48.9% (205/419)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Justin AlbrechtOfficial · 48 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureAlbrechtLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.734.579 of 284
Technicals per game0.310.35173 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.812.47271 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.080.20275 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.1%50.6%422 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.1% (31/72)Home covered 61.1% (44/72)Favorite covered 64.4% (47/73)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Winthrop @Kennesaw State79–87proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Winthrop79
Kennesaw State87
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 166
OVER / UNDERUnder 169.558%
33%
67%
Win chance · Kennesaw State favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Kennesaw State is at home against Winthrop.
  • Winthrop went 23-11 last season.
  • Kennesaw State went 21-14 last season.
RecordsWinthrop 0-2 · Kennesaw State 2-0
OfficialsBart Lenox, Lucas Santos, Nick Nadeau
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Winthrop returns about 18% of its minutes and added 8 transfers.
  • Kennesaw State returns about 22% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Winthrop 0-2, Kennesaw State 2-0.
Official profiles: Bart Lenox, Lucas Santos, Nick Nadeau
Bart LenoxOfficial · 175 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureLenoxLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.434.553 of 284
Technicals per game0.260.35220 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.592.47104 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20112 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games53.2%50.6%153 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.2% (216/406)Home covered 53.9% (180/334)Favorite covered 54.2% (220/406)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Lucas SantosOfficial · 146 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSantosLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.834.5189 of 284
Technicals per game0.420.3567 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.572.47113 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.140.20227 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games46.9%50.6%352 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.9% (130/277)Home covered 49.4% (116/235)Favorite covered 46.5% (128/275)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Nick NadeauOfficial · 50 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureNadeauLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.634.5138 of 284
Technicals per game0.280.35202 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.642.47278 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.020.20284 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games56.4%50.6%75 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.4% (44/78)Home covered 53.7% (36/67)Favorite covered 51.9% (41/79)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Charleston Southern @Wake Forest67–84proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Charleston Southern67
Wake Forest84
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 151
OVER / UNDERUnder 157.565%
20%
80%
Win chance · Wake Forest favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Wake Forest is at home against Charleston Southern.
  • Charleston Southern went 15-17 last season.
  • Wake Forest went 18-17 last season.
RecordsCharleston Southern 1-1 · Wake Forest 1-1
OfficialsRoger Ayers, Adam Flore, Joe Switzer
Ref watchRoger Ayers: unders hit 58% of his 516 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesAyers: Lets them play: 30.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (6,623 in 219 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Charleston Southern returns about 22% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Wake Forest returns about 12% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Charleston Southern 1-1, Wake Forest 1-1.
Official profiles: Roger Ayers, Adam Flore, Joe Switzer
Roger AyersOfficial · 219 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.
  • Lets them play: 30.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (6,623 in 219 games, 2024-26)
MeasureAyersLeagueRank
Fouls per game30.234.5278 of 284
Technicals per game0.280.35204 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.012.47249 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.140.20234 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games41.5%50.6%439 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 41.5% (214/516)Home covered 50.0% (219/438)Favorite covered 48.6% (251/516)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Adam FloreOfficial · 88 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureFloreLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.734.5193 of 284
Technicals per game0.240.35236 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.282.47184 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.260.2056 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.8%50.6%233 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.8% (96/189)Home covered 52.0% (89/171)Favorite covered 44.2% (84/190)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Joe SwitzerOfficial · 93 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSwitzerLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.434.5156 of 284
Technicals per game0.310.35174 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.522.47126 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20126 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games60.6%50.6%26 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 60.6% (86/142)Home covered 47.3% (61/129)Favorite covered 48.3% (69/143)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Bryant @Providence64–84proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick
Bryant64
Providence84
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 148
OVER / UNDERUnder 149.554%
15%
85%
Win chance · Providence favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our number is 10 points off the line, too far to trust this early in the season.
  • Providence is at home against Bryant.
  • Bryant went 9-22 last season.
  • Providence went 15-18 last season.
RecordsBryant 1-2 · Providence 1-1
OfficialsJeff Clark, Evon Burroughs
Ref watchEvon Burroughs: unders hit 52% of his 377 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Bryant returns about 30% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Providence returns about 13% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Bryant 1-2, Providence 1-1.
Official profiles: Jeff Clark, Evon Burroughs
Jeff ClarkOfficial · 143 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureClarkLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.534.5238 of 284
Technicals per game0.240.35228 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.442.47140 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20178 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.7%50.6%333 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.7% (184/386)Home covered 50.2% (167/333)Favorite covered 43.6% (168/385)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Evon BurroughsOfficial · 154 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureBurroughsLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.934.5229 of 284
Technicals per game0.360.35130 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.362.47166 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20162 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.5%50.6%339 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.5% (179/377)Home covered 44.8% (151/337)Favorite covered 49.2% (186/378)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:30 PM ET
Texas State66
UT Rio Grande Valley63
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 129
SPREADUT Rio Grande Valley +5.555%
OVER / UNDERUnder 138.571%
56%
44%
Win chance · Texas State favored
OUR PICKUT Rio Grande Valley +5.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like UT Rio Grande Valley at this line; home court.
  • UT Rio Grande Valley is at home against Texas State.
  • Texas State went 19-13 last season.
  • UT Rio Grande Valley went 19-14 last season.
RecordsTexas State 2-0 · UT Rio Grande Valley 2-0
OfficialsMatthew Martinez, Kevin Boone, Nicholas Walker-Baldwin
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Texas State returns about 61% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • UT Rio Grande Valley returns about 5% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Texas State 2-0, UT Rio Grande Valley 2-0.
Tue Nov 10 · 7:30 PM ET
Nicholls75
Tulane82
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 157
SPREADNicholls +9.555%
OVER / UNDEROver 153.557%
36%
64%
Win chance · Tulane favored
OUR PICKNicholls +9.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Nicholls at this line.
  • Tulane is at home against Nicholls.
  • Nicholls went 14-19 last season.
  • Tulane went 18-15 last season.
RecordsNicholls 1-1 · Tulane 1-1
OfficialsVladimir Voyard-Tadal, Rob Rorke, Stephen Orkus Jr
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Nicholls returns about 14% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Tulane returns about 40% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Nicholls 1-1, Tulane 1-1.
Official profiles: Vladimir Voyard-Tadal, Rob Rorke, Stephen Orkus Jr
Vladimir Voyard-TadalOfficial · 162 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureVoyard-TadalLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.934.5128 of 284
Technicals per game0.310.35177 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.832.4765 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.250.2063 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games55.0%50.6%113 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.0% (193/351)Home covered 45.7% (139/304)Favorite covered 47.0% (162/345)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Rob RorkeOfficial · 112 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureRorkeLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.834.5130 of 284
Technicals per game0.270.35215 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.432.475 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.280.2042 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games52.4%50.6%172 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.4% (152/290)Home covered 44.8% (111/248)Favorite covered 43.8% (128/292)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Stephen Orkus JrOfficial · 64 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureJrLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.134.5175 of 284
Technicals per game0.330.35157 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.232.4716 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.270.2051 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.6%50.6%205 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.6% (33/64)Home covered 47.4% (27/57)Favorite covered 48.4% (31/64)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Evansville @Middle Tennessee67–76proj
Tue Nov 10 · 7:30 PM ETNo pick
Evansville67
Middle Tennessee76
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 143
OVER / UNDERUnder 143.551%
32%
68%
Win chance · Middle Tennessee favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Middle Tennessee is at home against Evansville.
  • Evansville went 7-25 last season.
  • Middle Tennessee went 17-15 last season.
RecordsEvansville 2-0 · Middle Tennessee 1-1
OfficialsBarry Mathis, Jason Baker, Nick Meyer, Grant Tyler, Steve Divine
Ref watchJason Baker: unders hit 54% of his 329 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Evansville returns about 41% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 6 freshmen.
  • Middle Tennessee returns about 42% of its minutes and added 9 transfers.
  • Records coming in: Evansville 2-0, Middle Tennessee 1-1.
Official profiles: Barry Mathis, Jason Baker, Steve Divine
Barry MathisOfficial · 25 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 25 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
MeasureMathisLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.334.5
Technicals per game0.160.35
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.362.47
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.280.20
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.8%50.6%329 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.8% (43/90)Home covered 54.0% (47/87)Favorite covered 53.8% (49/91)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jason BakerOfficial · 140 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureBakerLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.734.5134 of 284
Technicals per game0.270.35210 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.732.4780 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.220.2097 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games45.6%50.6%378 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 45.6% (150/329)Home covered 46.6% (130/279)Favorite covered 47.1% (154/327)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Steve DivineOfficial · 55 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureDivineLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.634.585 of 284
Technicals per game0.490.3533 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.652.4793 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.220.20102 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.9%50.6%227 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.9% (28/55)Home covered 42.2% (19/45)Favorite covered 45.5% (25/55)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
UT Martin82
Arkansas State65
FINAL · we projected 67 – 77Projected total 144
SPREADArkansas State -7.555%
OVER / UNDERUnder 155.573%
31%
69%
Win chance · Arkansas State favored
OUR PICKArkansas State -7.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Arkansas State at this line; home court.
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
  • Arkansas State is at home against UT Martin.
  • UT Martin went 22-11 last season.
  • Arkansas State went 20-12 last season.
RecordsUT Martin 0-2 · Arkansas State 1-1
OfficialsDoug Shows, Nathan Bemis, R.B. Clyburn
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • UT Martin returns about 22% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Arkansas State returns about 12% of its minutes and added 13 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: UT Martin 0-2, Arkansas State 1-1.
Official profiles: Doug Shows, Nathan Bemis, R.B. Clyburn
Doug ShowsOfficial · 168 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureShowsLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.534.599 of 284
Technicals per game0.360.35129 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.882.4755 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.240.2076 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.5%50.6%314 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.5% (196/404)Home covered 50.9% (169/332)Favorite covered 49.8% (200/402)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Nathan BemisOfficial · 35 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 35 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
MeasureBemisLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.534.5
Technicals per game0.430.35
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.832.47
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.090.20
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.6%50.6%242 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.6% (43/85)Home covered 55.3% (42/76)Favorite covered 50.6% (43/85)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
R.B. ClyburnOfficial · 70 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureClyburnLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.034.5179 of 284
Technicals per game0.230.35246 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.842.4758 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20215 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games56.1%50.6%87 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.1% (88/157)Home covered 54.2% (78/144)Favorite covered 48.4% (77/159)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Northern Kentucky73
Saint Louis87
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 160
SPREADNorthern Kentucky +23.568%
OVER / UNDERUnder 168.567%
23%
77%
Win chance · Saint Louis favored
OUR PICKNorthern Kentucky +23.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Northern Kentucky at this line.
  • Saint Louis is at home against Northern Kentucky.
  • Northern Kentucky went 20-14 last season.
  • Saint Louis went 29-6 last season.
RecordsNorthern Kentucky 2-1 · Saint Louis 2-0
OfficialsGreg Gerritsen, Michael Kashirsky, Randall Wells
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Northern Kentucky returns about 17% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Saint Louis returns about 79% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Records coming in: Northern Kentucky 2-1, Saint Louis 2-0.
Official profiles: Greg Gerritsen, Michael Kashirsky, Randall Wells
Greg GerritsenOfficial · 50 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureGerritsenLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.434.5210 of 284
Technicals per game0.320.35164 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.062.4732 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20181 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games43.1%50.6%421 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 43.1% (31/72)Home covered 46.4% (32/69)Favorite covered 54.2% (39/72)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Michael KashirskyOfficial · 30 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 30 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
MeasureKashirskyLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.734.5
Technicals per game0.630.35
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.672.47
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.100.20
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games54.4%50.6%126 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.4% (43/79)Home covered 52.1% (37/71)Favorite covered 53.2% (42/79)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Randall WellsOfficial · 48 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureWellsLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.434.5153 of 284
Technicals per game0.270.35211 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.732.4779 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20164 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games39.3%50.6%451 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 39.3% (22/56)Home covered 45.8% (22/48)Favorite covered 41.1% (23/56)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Green Bay76
Northern Iowa89
FINAL · we projected 78 – 84Projected total 162
SPREADNorthern Iowa -3.554%
OVER / UNDEROver 150.572%
39%
61%
Win chance · Northern Iowa favored
OUR PICKNorthern Iowa -3.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Northern Iowa at this line; Green Bay without J. Edwards, J. Overway; home court.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
  • Northern Iowa is at home against Green Bay.
  • Green Bay went 18-15 last season.
  • Northern Iowa went 23-13 last season.
Out: Green BayJ. Edwards, J. Overway
RecordsGreen Bay 2-1 · Northern Iowa 1-1
OfficialsBrad Gaston, Jeff Campbell
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Green Bay returns about 33% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Northern Iowa returns about 13% of its minutes and added 10 transfers.
  • Green Bay is without J. Edwards, J. Overway.
Official profiles: Brad Gaston, Jeff Campbell
Brad GastonOfficial · 18 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Only 18 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.
MeasureGastonLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.134.5
Technicals per game0.500.35
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.892.47
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.390.20
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games52.1%50.6%181 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.1% (38/73)Home covered 51.4% (37/72)Favorite covered 47.9% (34/71)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jeff CampbellOfficial · 73 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureCampbellLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.934.571 of 284
Technicals per game0.590.3515 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.772.4773 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20153 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games56.5%50.6%73 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 56.5% (70/124)Home covered 54.9% (62/113)Favorite covered 50.4% (62/123)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Yale61
Baylor90
FINAL · we projected 67 – 83Projected total 150
SPREADYale +22.564%
OVER / UNDERUnder 158.567%
21%
79%
Win chance · Baylor favored
OUR PICKYale +22.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Yale at this line.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
  • Baylor is at home against Yale.
  • Yale went 24-7 last season.
  • Baylor went 17-17 last season.
RecordsYale 1-1 · Baylor 2-0
OfficialsDeron White, Matthew Rukasin, John Jenkins Jr.
Ref watchDeron White: unders hit 60% of his 273 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesRukasin: Quick with technicals: 0.63 a game vs 0.35 average (55 in 87 games).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Yale returns about 92% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Baylor returns about 20% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Yale 1-1, Baylor 2-0.
Official profiles: Deron White, Matthew Rukasin, John Jenkins Jr.
Deron WhiteOfficial · 121 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureWhiteLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.334.5212 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3589 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.262.47189 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20121 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games40.3%50.6%447 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 40.3% (110/273)Home covered 47.4% (109/230)Favorite covered 51.1% (139/272)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Matthew RukasinOfficial · 87 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.63 a game vs 0.35 average (55 in 87 games)
MeasureRukasinLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.734.539 of 284
Technicals per game0.630.3510 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.332.47174 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.110.20257 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games54.5%50.6%122 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.5% (96/176)Home covered 46.8% (72/154)Favorite covered 55.1% (97/176)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
John Jenkins Jr.Official · 62 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureJr.LeagueRank
Fouls per game33.534.5200 of 284
Technicals per game0.420.3569 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.982.47252 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20186 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.9%50.6%187 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.9% (40/77)Home covered 51.4% (38/74)Favorite covered 55.8% (43/77)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Alcorn State57
Murray State94
FINAL · we projected 72 – 92Projected total 164
SPREADAlcorn State +29.569%
OVER / UNDERUnder 166.555%
16%
84%
Win chance · Murray State favored
OUR PICKAlcorn State +29.5SPREAD
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Alcorn State at this line.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
  • Murray State is at home against Alcorn State.
  • Alcorn State went 9-23 last season.
  • Murray State went 20-13 last season.
RecordsAlcorn State 0-2 · Murray State 2-0
OfficialsChris Hudson, De Selle Dean
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Alcorn State returns about 0% of its minutes and added 15 transfers.
  • Murray State returns about 35% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Records coming in: Alcorn State 0-2, Murray State 2-0.
Official profiles: Chris Hudson, De Selle Dean
Chris HudsonOfficial · 64 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureHudsonLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.534.5144 of 284
Technicals per game0.480.3541 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.422.47144 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.090.20269 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games45.0%50.6%391 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 45.0% (76/169)Home covered 57.4% (85/148)Favorite covered 50.6% (86/170)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
De Selle DeanOfficial · 81 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureDeanLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.434.5154 of 284
Technicals per game0.350.35141 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.162.47217 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.090.20273 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games41.0%50.6%444 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 41.0% (43/105)Home covered 59.1% (55/93)Favorite covered 52.8% (56/106)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Houston Christian87
South Dakota76
FINAL · we projected 78 – 80Projected total 158
SPREADHouston Christian +4.555%
OVER / UNDEROver 155.553%
46%
54%
Win chance · South Dakota favored
OUR PICKHouston Christian +4.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Houston Christian at this line.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
  • South Dakota is at home against Houston Christian.
  • Houston Christian went 12-20 last season.
  • South Dakota went 16-16 last season.
RecordsHouston Christian 2-0 · South Dakota 1-2
OfficialsCody Crum, Sutton Simon, Derek Henry
Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Houston Christian returns about 14% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • South Dakota returns about 26% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Houston Christian 2-0, South Dakota 1-2.
Official profiles: Cody Crum, Sutton Simon
Cody CrumOfficial · 49 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureCrumLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.734.5133 of 284
Technicals per game0.390.35105 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.712.4782 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.310.2023 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.4%50.6%283 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.4% (44/89)Home covered 44.7% (38/85)Favorite covered 50.6% (45/89)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Sutton SimonOfficial · 42 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSimonLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.534.547 of 284
Technicals per game0.240.35237 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.262.4712 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.450.201 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games55.4%50.6%104 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.4% (31/56)Home covered 50.9% (28/55)Favorite covered 44.6% (25/56)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Prairie View A&M71
SMU89
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 160
SPREADPrairie View A&M +24.563%
OVER / UNDERUnder 161.552%
18%
82%
Win chance · SMU favored
OUR PICKPrairie View A&M +24.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Prairie View A&M at this line.
  • SMU is at home against Prairie View A&M.
  • Prairie View A&M went 19-18 last season.
  • SMU went 20-14 last season.
RecordsPrairie View A&M 2-1 · SMU 2-0
OfficialsLee Cassell, Greg Evans, Michael Kitts
Ref watchMichael Kitts: unders hit 50% of his 283 games since 2021-22.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Prairie View A&M returns about 18% of its minutes and added 8 transfers.
  • SMU returns about 26% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Records coming in: Prairie View A&M 2-1, SMU 2-0.
Official profiles: Lee Cassell, Greg Evans, Michael Kitts
Lee CassellOfficial · 197 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureCassellLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.234.5113 of 284
Technicals per game0.390.3597 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.062.47237 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.140.20233 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.8%50.6%234 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.8% (233/459)Home covered 50.1% (195/389)Favorite covered 50.8% (234/461)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Greg EvansOfficial · 167 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureEvansLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.734.5234 of 284
Technicals per game0.330.35156 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.722.4781 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20155 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games54.8%50.6%118 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.8% (206/376)Home covered 48.7% (155/318)Favorite covered 46.0% (174/378)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Michael KittsOfficial · 108 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureKittsLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.534.5148 of 284
Technicals per game0.290.35198 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.682.4789 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20107 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.8%50.6%268 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.8% (141/283)Home covered 46.6% (115/247)Favorite covered 51.4% (145/282)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Southern @Iowa State63–84proj
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ETNo pick
Southern63
Iowa State84
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 147
OVER / UNDERUnder 146.550%
14%
86%
Win chance · Iowa State favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our number is 14 points off the line, too far to trust this early in the season.
  • Iowa State is at home against Southern.
  • Southern went 17-17 last season.
  • Iowa State went 29-8 last season.
Out: Iowa StateC. Wiggins, K. Toure
RecordsSouthern 0-3 · Iowa State 1-1
OfficialsMichael Greenstein, Antinio Petty, Tyler Kumpf
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Southern returns about 8% of its minutes and added 14 transfers.
  • Iowa State returns about 44% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Iowa State is without C. Wiggins, K. Toure.
Loud arena: Hilton Coliseum, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball
Official profiles: Michael Greenstein, Antinio Petty, Tyler Kumpf
Michael GreensteinOfficial · 170 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureGreensteinLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.534.594 of 284
Technicals per game0.470.3542 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.452.47139 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.320.2018 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games52.0%50.6%184 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.0% (208/400)Home covered 52.5% (166/316)Favorite covered 50.1% (200/399)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Antinio PettyOfficial · 133 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasurePettyLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.434.5157 of 284
Technicals per game0.340.35149 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.082.47233 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20131 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.9%50.6%230 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.9% (178/350)Home covered 57.7% (168/291)Favorite covered 51.9% (181/349)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tyler KumpfOfficial · 124 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureKumpfLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.234.5114 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3592 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.322.47177 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20116 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.5%50.6%243 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.5% (143/283)Home covered 51.6% (116/225)Favorite covered 49.1% (139/283)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Belmont @Lipscomb82–79proj
Tue Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ETNo pick
Belmont82
Lipscomb79
OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 161
OVER / UNDEROver 157.557%
55%
45%
Win chance · Belmont favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.
  • Lipscomb is at home against Belmont.
  • Belmont went 26-6 last season.
  • Lipscomb went 19-13 last season.
RecordsBelmont 2-0 · Lipscomb 1-2
OfficialsChris Ford, Hunter Allen, Kyle Stewart
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Belmont returns about 56% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Lipscomb returns about 38% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Belmont 2-0, Lipscomb 1-2.
Official profiles: Chris Ford, Hunter Allen, Kyle Stewart
Chris FordOfficial · 77 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureFordLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.034.5180 of 284
Technicals per game0.290.35200 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.822.4767 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20177 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games57.1%50.6%65 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.1% (93/163)Home covered 51.7% (78/151)Favorite covered 52.4% (86/164)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Hunter AllenOfficial · 78 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureAllenLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.234.5215 of 284
Technicals per game0.120.35281 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.262.4714 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.350.2011 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games57.2%50.6%60 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.2% (99/173)Home covered 55.2% (90/163)Favorite covered 48.0% (83/173)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Kyle StewartOfficial · 43 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureStewartLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.234.5166 of 284
Technicals per game0.210.35257 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points3.002.4736 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.280.2039 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games61.3%50.6%22 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 61.3% (38/62)Home covered 55.4% (31/56)Favorite covered 46.0% (29/63)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:30 PM ET
Fairfield42
Wisconsin89
FINAL · we projected 66 – 81Projected total 147
SPREADFairfield +23.567%
OVER / UNDERUnder 150.557%
23%
77%
Win chance · Wisconsin favored
OUR PICKFairfield +23.5SPREAD
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Fairfield at this line; Wisconsin without J. Manchester, L. Fenderson.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
  • Wisconsin is at home against Fairfield.
  • Fairfield went 21-13 last season.
  • Wisconsin went 24-11 last season.
Out: WisconsinJ. Manchester, L. Fenderson
RecordsFairfield 1-1 · Wisconsin 2-0
OfficialsBrian Dorsey, Alfred Smith, Kelly Pfeifer
Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Fairfield returns about 51% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Wisconsin returns about 57% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Wisconsin is without J. Manchester, L. Fenderson.
Official profiles: Brian Dorsey, Alfred Smith, Kelly Pfeifer
Brian DorseyOfficial · 190 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureDorseyLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.334.5108 of 284
Technicals per game0.390.3593 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.132.47222 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20139 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games53.1%50.6%157 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.1% (230/433)Home covered 49.9% (182/365)Favorite covered 46.3% (201/434)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Alfred SmithOfficial · 111 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSmithLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.134.560 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3590 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.762.47275 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.230.2093 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.0%50.6%299 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.0% (123/251)Home covered 50.5% (106/210)Favorite covered 55.4% (138/249)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Kelly PfeiferOfficial · 157 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasurePfeiferLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.734.580 of 284
Technicals per game0.290.35199 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.552.47120 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.250.2068 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.3%50.6%250 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.3% (198/394)Home covered 52.1% (172/330)Favorite covered 51.1% (201/393)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 8:30 PM ET
SE Louisiana51
Ole Miss91
FINAL · we projected 65 – 82Projected total 147
SPREADSE Louisiana +25.567%
OVER / UNDEROver 146.552%
19%
81%
Win chance · Ole Miss favored
OUR PICKSE Louisiana +25.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like SE Louisiana at this line.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
  • Ole Miss is at home against SE Louisiana.
  • SE Louisiana went 9-22 last season.
  • Ole Miss went 15-20 last season.
RecordsSE Louisiana 1-1 · Ole Miss 2-0
OfficialsSteven Anderson, Shane Land
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • SE Louisiana returns about 10% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Ole Miss returns about 30% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: SE Louisiana 1-1, Ole Miss 2-0.
Official profiles: Steven Anderson, Shane Land
Steven AndersonOfficial · 167 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureAndersonLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.534.595 of 284
Technicals per game0.290.35197 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.112.47224 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.190.20154 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.9%50.6%188 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.9% (195/376)Home covered 51.1% (161/315)Favorite covered 50.5% (189/374)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Shane LandOfficial · 92 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureLandLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.834.5231 of 284
Technicals per game0.220.35250 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.842.4762 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20123 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.4%50.6%286 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.4% (79/160)Home covered 50.0% (73/146)Favorite covered 41.9% (67/160)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Creighton82
Kansas State89
FINAL · we projected 79 – 79Projected total 158
SPREADKansas State +3.556%
OVER / UNDERUnder 159.554%
51%
49%
Win chance · Creighton favored
OUR PICKKansas State +3.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Kansas State at this line; home court.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
  • Kansas State is at home against Creighton.
  • Creighton went 16-18 last season.
  • Kansas State went 12-20 last season.
RecordsCreighton 2-0 · Kansas State 1-1
OfficialsTim Clougherty, Bret Smith, Eric Curry
Ref notesCurry: Calls it tight: 38.0 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,868 in 128 games, 2024-26). Curry: Quick with technicals: 0.55 a game vs 0.35 average (70 in 128 games).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Creighton returns about 40% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Kansas State returns about 2% of its minutes and added 12 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Creighton 2-0, Kansas State 1-1.
Official profiles: Tim Clougherty, Bret Smith, Eric Curry
Tim CloughertyOfficial · 151 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureCloughertyLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.334.5244 of 284
Technicals per game0.400.3582 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.052.47242 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.170.20196 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.0%50.6%258 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.0% (176/352)Home covered 48.8% (148/303)Favorite covered 51.3% (181/353)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Bret SmithOfficial · 171 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureSmithLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.234.5216 of 284
Technicals per game0.490.3538 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.372.47161 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.260.2059 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.9%50.6%300 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.9% (182/372)Home covered 52.1% (162/311)Favorite covered 48.5% (180/371)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Eric CurryOfficial · 128 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high), technicals per game.
  • Calls it tight: 38.0 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,868 in 128 games, 2024-26)
  • Quick with technicals: 0.55 a game vs 0.35 average (70 in 128 games)
MeasureCurryLeagueRank
Fouls per game38.034.59 of 284
Technicals per game0.550.3520 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.672.4791 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.230.2088 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games55.4%50.6%102 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.4% (195/352)Home covered 53.1% (153/288)Favorite covered 53.3% (187/351)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Georgia State92
Fresno State95
FINAL · we projected 75 – 77Projected total 152
SPREADGeorgia State +6.558%
OVER / UNDEROver 145.563%
45%
55%
Win chance · Fresno State favored
OUR PICKGeorgia State +6.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Georgia State at this line; Fresno State without N. Zulemie.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
  • Fresno State is at home against Georgia State.
  • Georgia State went 10-22 last season.
  • Fresno State went 13-19 last season.
Out: Fresno StateN. Zulemie
RecordsGeorgia State 1-2 · Fresno State 1-1
OfficialsRandy McCall, John Hampton, Michael Mojica
Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Georgia State returns about 12% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Fresno State returns about 0% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Fresno State is without N. Zulemie.
Official profiles: Randy McCall, John Hampton, Michael Mojica
Randy McCallOfficial · 160 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureMcCallLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.134.5176 of 284
Technicals per game0.460.3547 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.312.47181 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20216 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games53.8%50.6%140 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 53.8% (191/355)Home covered 46.0% (139/302)Favorite covered 49.0% (174/355)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
John HamptonOfficial · 93 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureHamptonLeagueRank
Fouls per game32.334.5246 of 284
Technicals per game0.290.35194 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.022.47247 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.130.20243 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games52.0%50.6%183 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.0% (116/223)Home covered 52.4% (99/189)Favorite covered 44.9% (102/227)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Michael MojicaOfficial · 66 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureMojicaLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.234.5165 of 284
Technicals per game0.350.35139 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.292.47183 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20111 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.5%50.6%277 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.5% (49/99)Home covered 37.9% (33/87)Favorite covered 53.5% (53/99)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Little Rock69
New Mexico94
FINAL · we projected 70 – 86Projected total 156
SPREADLittle Rock +21.560%
OVER / UNDERUnder 157.553%
20%
80%
Win chance · New Mexico favored
OUR PICKLittle Rock +21.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Little Rock at this line.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
  • New Mexico is at home against Little Rock.
  • Little Rock went 12-20 last season.
  • New Mexico went 26-11 last season.
RecordsLittle Rock 0-2 · New Mexico 2-0
OfficialsMichael Irving, Jason Phillips, Kevin Raher
Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Little Rock returns about 0% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • New Mexico returns about 40% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • New Mexico plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.
Loud arena: The Pit, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball
Official profiles: Michael Irving, Jason Phillips, Kevin Raher
Michael IrvingOfficial · 146 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureIrvingLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.534.592 of 284
Technicals per game0.290.35189 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.102.47228 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.120.20248 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.3%50.6%249 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.3% (186/370)Home covered 52.2% (157/301)Favorite covered 49.9% (184/369)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Jason PhillipsOfficial · 124 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasurePhillipsLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.134.5173 of 284
Technicals per game0.360.35125 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.632.47279 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.100.20262 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.6%50.6%203 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.6% (65/126)Home covered 53.0% (61/115)Favorite covered 51.6% (65/126)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Kevin RaherOfficial · 60 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureRaherLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.034.535 of 284
Technicals per game0.300.35185 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.972.4740 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.170.20194 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games54.3%50.6%131 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 54.3% (70/129)Home covered 40.7% (50/123)Favorite covered 44.1% (56/127)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Utah Tech86
Utah State118
FINAL · we projected 62 – 81Projected total 143
SPREADUtah Tech +26.565%
OVER / UNDERUnder 156.578%
17%
83%
Win chance · Utah State favored
OUR PICKUtah Tech +26.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Utah Tech at this line; Utah State without C. Turnbull.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
  • Utah State is at home against Utah Tech.
  • Utah Tech went 19-15 last season.
  • Utah State went 29-7 last season.
Out: Utah StateC. Turnbull
RecordsUtah Tech 1-1 · Utah State 2-0
OfficialsChad Shepherd, Mark Fulton, James Ford
Ref notesShepherd: Quick with technicals: 0.65 a game vs 0.35 average (28 in 43 games). Shepherd: Calls it tight: 37.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,631 in 43 games, 2024-26). Fulton: Quick with technicals: 0.58 a game vs 0.35 average (35 in 60 games). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Utah Tech returns about 35% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 2 freshmen.
  • Utah State returns about 24% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 1 freshman.
  • Utah State is without C. Turnbull.
Loud arena: the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball
Official profiles: Chad Shepherd, Mark Fulton, James Ford
Chad ShepherdOfficial · 43 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game, fouls per game (high).
  • Quick with technicals: 0.65 a game vs 0.35 average (28 in 43 games)
  • Calls it tight: 37.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,631 in 43 games, 2024-26)
MeasureShepherdLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.934.511 of 284
Technicals per game0.650.356 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.022.47245 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.230.2081 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games57.1%50.6%61 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 57.1% (72/126)Home covered 50.5% (52/103)Favorite covered 46.8% (58/124)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Mark FultonOfficial · 60 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.58 a game vs 0.35 average (35 in 60 games)
MeasureFultonLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.534.544 of 284
Technicals per game0.580.3516 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.982.47253 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.120.20255 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games55.6%50.6%99 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 55.6% (65/117)Home covered 42.7% (47/110)Favorite covered 51.7% (60/116)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
James FordOfficial · 89 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureFordLeagueRank
Fouls per game35.834.575 of 284
Technicals per game0.270.35212 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.392.47154 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20134 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games47.8%50.6%330 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 47.8% (75/157)Home covered 53.9% (76/141)Favorite covered 52.9% (82/155)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Hofstra63
Arizona State85
FINAL · we projected 61 – 72Projected total 133
SPREADHofstra +16.562%
OVER / UNDERUnder 133.551%
30%
70%
Win chance · Arizona State favored
OUR PICKHofstra +16.5SPREADLOSS
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Hofstra at this line; Arizona State without J. Griman, E. Innocenti.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
  • Arizona State is at home against Hofstra.
  • Hofstra went 24-11 last season.
  • Arizona State went 17-16 last season.
Out: Arizona StateJ. Griman, E. Innocenti
RecordsHofstra 1-1 · Arizona State 2-0
OfficialsDoug Sirmons, Robert Felder, Kirk Smith
Ref watchDoug Sirmons: unders hit 57% of his 466 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesSmith: Quick with technicals: 0.60 a game vs 0.35 average (26 in 43 games).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Hofstra returns about 12% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 4 freshmen.
  • Arizona State returns about 8% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Arizona State is without J. Griman, E. Innocenti.
Official profiles: Doug Sirmons, Robert Felder, Kirk Smith
Doug SirmonsOfficial · 212 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasureSirmonsLeagueRank
Fouls per game31.734.5256 of 284
Technicals per game0.370.35117 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.002.47251 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20174 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games42.7%50.6%426 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 42.7% (199/466)Home covered 54.2% (211/389)Favorite covered 53.0% (246/464)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Robert FelderOfficial · 67 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureFelderLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.234.5217 of 284
Technicals per game0.430.3560 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.222.47201 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.130.20240 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games51.6%50.6%199 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 51.6% (94/182)Home covered 41.2% (63/153)Favorite covered 45.6% (83/182)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Kirk SmithOfficial · 43 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.60 a game vs 0.35 average (26 in 43 games)
MeasureSmithLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.334.525 of 284
Technicals per game0.600.3513 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.052.47241 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.210.20117 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games58.4%50.6%44 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 58.4% (59/101)Home covered 48.0% (47/98)Favorite covered 57.8% (59/102)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
Weber State64
Utah85
FINAL · we projected 73 – 88Projected total 161
SPREADWeber State +18.557%
OVER / UNDEROver 154.563%
23%
77%
Win chance · Utah favored
OUR PICKWeber State +18.5SPREAD
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Weber State at this line.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
  • Utah is at home against Weber State.
  • Weber State went 16-16 last season.
  • Utah went 10-22 last season.
RecordsWeber State 0-2 · Utah 2-0
OfficialsClarence Armstrong, Justin Shamion, Matt Rafferty
Ref notesShamion: Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (57 in 94 games). Rafferty: Quick with technicals: 0.65 a game vs 0.35 average (28 in 43 games).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Weber State returns about 13% of its minutes and added 11 transfers.
  • Utah returns about 1% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 7 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Weber State 0-2, Utah 2-0.
Official profiles: Clarence Armstrong, Justin Shamion, Matt Rafferty
Clarence ArmstrongOfficial · 197 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
MeasureArmstrongLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.234.5164 of 284
Technicals per game0.390.3596 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.572.47112 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20185 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.1%50.6%252 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.1% (227/453)Home covered 50.5% (198/392)Favorite covered 47.3% (215/455)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Justin ShamionOfficial · 94 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (57 in 94 games)
MeasureShamionLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.334.5162 of 284
Technicals per game0.610.3512 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.182.47213 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20208 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games49.8%50.6%270 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.8% (100/201)Home covered 51.4% (92/179)Favorite covered 54.7% (111/203)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Matt RaffertyOfficial · 43 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.65 a game vs 0.35 average (28 in 43 games)
MeasureRaffertyLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.034.533 of 284
Technicals per game0.650.355 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.332.47176 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20202 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games65.3%50.6%6 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 65.3% (47/72)Home covered 49.2% (32/65)Favorite covered 56.9% (41/72)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET
San Diego75
Colorado83
FINAL · we projected 73 – 81Projected total 154
SPREADSan Diego +13.561%
OVER / UNDEROver 151.555%
35%
65%
Win chance · Colorado favored
OUR PICKSan Diego +13.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like San Diego at this line.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
  • Colorado is at home against San Diego.
  • San Diego went 12-21 last season.
  • Colorado went 17-16 last season.
RecordsSan Diego 2-0 · Colorado 1-1
OfficialsKeith Patterson, Grant Jeffres, Wacey Lym
Ref watchKeith Patterson: unders hit 53% of his 174 games since 2021-22.
Ref notesJeffres: Quick with technicals: 0.70 a game vs 0.35 average (45 in 64 games).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • San Diego returns about 0% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • Colorado returns about 52% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 7 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: San Diego 2-0, Colorado 1-1.
Official profiles: Keith Patterson, Grant Jeffres
Keith PattersonOfficial · 76 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.
MeasurePattersonLeagueRank
Fouls per game33.434.5205 of 284
Technicals per game0.530.3521 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.462.47282 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.180.20173 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games46.6%50.6%361 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.6% (81/174)Home covered 55.0% (77/140)Favorite covered 52.6% (92/175)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Grant JeffresOfficial · 64 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.70 a game vs 0.35 average (45 in 64 games)
MeasureJeffresLeagueRank
Fouls per game34.934.5126 of 284
Technicals per game0.700.353 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.222.47204 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20130 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games52.8%50.6%161 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 52.8% (47/89)Home covered 49.4% (43/87)Favorite covered 43.8% (39/89)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
UL Monroe @TCU92–100FINAL
Tue Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ETNo pick
UL Monroe92
TCU100
FINAL · we projected 71 – 94Projected total 165
OVER / UNDEROver 160.560%
12%
88%
Win chance · TCU favored
OUR PICKNo pick
Pass. Our number is 10 points off the line, too far to trust this early in the season.
✓ Moneyline✓ Total
  • TCU is at home against UL Monroe.
  • UL Monroe went 4-28 last season.
  • TCU went 23-12 last season.
RecordsUL Monroe 1-2 · TCU 2-0
OfficialsNomi Kidwai
Ref notesKidwai: Quick with technicals: 0.73 a game vs 0.35 average (40 in 55 games). Kidwai: Calls it tight: 37.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,083 in 55 games, 2024-26).
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • UL Monroe returns about 0% of its minutes and added 14 transfers.
  • TCU returns about 48% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: UL Monroe 1-2, TCU 2-0.
Official profile: Nomi Kidwai
Nomi KidwaiOfficial · 55 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game, fouls per game (high).
  • Quick with technicals: 0.73 a game vs 0.35 average (40 in 55 games)
  • Calls it tight: 37.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,083 in 55 games, 2024-26)
MeasureKidwaiLeagueRank
Fouls per game37.934.513 of 284
Technicals per game0.730.351 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.422.47147 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.200.20135 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games62.8%50.6%14 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 62.8% (76/121)Home covered 45.0% (49/109)Favorite covered 39.3% (48/122)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Tue Nov 10 · 10:00 PM ET
Montana58
San Francisco63
FINAL · we projected 70 – 75Projected total 145
SPREADMontana +10.560%
OVER / UNDERUnder 147.556%
39%
61%
Win chance · San Francisco favored
OUR PICKMontana +10.5SPREADWIN
75Input quality (not a win chance)
Our power numbers like Montana at this line.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
  • San Francisco is at home against Montana.
  • Montana went 18-16 last season.
  • San Francisco went 17-16 last season.
RecordsMontana 1-1 · San Francisco 2-0
OfficialsCasey McClellan, Martin Cichocki
Ref notesMcClellan: Quick with technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.35 average (30 in 47 games). Cichocki: Calls it tight: 38.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,682 in 44 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
  • Montana returns about 32% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
  • San Francisco returns about 5% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 5 freshmen.
  • Records coming in: Montana 1-1, San Francisco 2-0.
Official profiles: Casey McClellan, Martin Cichocki
Casey McClellanOfficial · 47 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: technicals per game.
  • Quick with technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.35 average (30 in 47 games)
MeasureMcClellanLeagueRank
Fouls per game36.434.551 of 284
Technicals per game0.640.359 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points1.962.47259 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.110.20261 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games48.3%50.6%318 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 48.3% (69/143)Home covered 42.4% (53/125)Favorite covered 46.5% (67/144)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.
Martin CichockiOfficial · 44 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)
Stands out on: fouls per game (high).
  • Calls it tight: 38.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,682 in 44 games, 2024-26)
MeasureCichockiLeagueRank
Fouls per game38.234.57 of 284
Technicals per game0.320.35167 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points2.022.47246 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call0.160.20209 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games50.8%50.6%232 of 462
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.8% (61/120)Home covered 55.0% (61/111)Favorite covered 55.7% (68/122)
Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.