College Basketball Picks Wed Nov 11

WEDNESDAY NOV 11 graded picks

Went 12-13 on the day

AP Top 25 7 games

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

Colgate59

13St. John's90

FINAL · we projected 69 – 88Projected total 157

SPREADColgate +28.570%

OVER / UNDERUnder 158.553%

15%

85%

Win chance · St. John's favored

OUR PICKColgate +28.5SPREAD

0Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Colgate at this line.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

No. 13 St. John's is at home against Colgate.
Colgate went 18-15 last season.
St. John's went 30-7 last season.

RecordsColgate 0-3 · St. John's 3-0

Players gradeColgate #185 · St. John's #23

Record gradeColgate #287 · St. John's #56

OfficialsPat Driscoll, Nathan Farrell, John Cahill Jr.

Ref watchPat Driscoll: unders hit 53% of his 388 games since 2021-22; Nathan Farrell: unders hit 55% of his 382 games since 2021-22. Whole crew leans under.

Ref notesFarrell: Lets them play: 30.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,782 in 155 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Colgate returns about 70% of its minutes and added 2 freshmen.
St. John's returns about 18% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Records coming in: Colgate 0-3, St. John's 3-0.

Official profiles: Pat Driscoll, Nathan Farrell, John Cahill Jr.

Pat DriscollOfficial · 154 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Driscoll	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.9	34.5	226 of 284
Technicals per game	0.41	0.35	77 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.48	2.47	134 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	189 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	46.9%	50.6%	353 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.9% (182/388)Home covered 40.2% (135/336)Favorite covered 49.7% (194/390)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Nathan FarrellOfficial · 155 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.

Lets them play: 30.9 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,782 in 155 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Farrell	League	Rank
Fouls per game	30.9	34.5	271 of 284
Technicals per game	0.32	0.35	161 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.23	2.47	199 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.10	0.20	265 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	45.0%	50.6%	388 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.0% (172/382)Home covered 53.5% (175/327)Favorite covered 50.7% (194/383)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

John Cahill Jr.Official · 123 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Jr.	League	Rank
Fouls per game	31.8	34.5	254 of 284
Technicals per game	0.37	0.35	110 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.18	2.47	19 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	129 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	48.6%	50.6%	309 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.6% (105/216)Home covered 48.3% (99/205)Favorite covered 48.1% (103/214)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

Marquette70

20Michigan84

FINAL · we projected 77 – 76Projected total 153

SPREADMarquette +4.560%

OVER / UNDERUnder 156.558%

51%

49%

Win chance · Marquette favored

OUR PICKMarquette +4.5SPREADLOSS

0Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Marquette at this line.

✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

No. 20 Michigan is at home against Marquette.
Marquette went 12-20 last season.
Michigan went 37-3 last season.

RecordsMarquette 2-1 · Michigan 2-1

Players gradeMarquette #45 · Michigan #13

Record gradeMarquette #147 · Michigan #36

OfficialsMike Roberts, Brent Hampton, Tony Chiazza

Ref watchTony Chiazza: unders hit 56% of his 436 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Marquette returns about 60% of its minutes and added 3 transfers and 5 freshmen.
Michigan returns about 36% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 6 freshmen.
Records coming in: Marquette 2-1, Michigan 2-1.

Official profiles: Mike Roberts, Brent Hampton, Tony Chiazza

Mike RobertsOfficial · 128 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Roberts	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.8	34.5	230 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	98 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.55	2.47	117 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	163 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.8%	50.6%	267 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.8% (161/323)Home covered 48.1% (138/287)Favorite covered 47.1% (153/325)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Brent HamptonOfficial · 84 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hampton	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.9	34.5	227 of 284
Technicals per game	0.35	0.35	142 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.51	2.47	128 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.11	0.20	259 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	56.4%	50.6%	76 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 56.4% (181/321)Home covered 45.5% (122/268)Favorite covered 47.8% (153/320)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tony ChiazzaOfficial · 177 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Chiazza	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.9	34.5	187 of 284
Technicals per game	0.44	0.35	59 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.31	2.47	180 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.16	0.20	213 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	44.5%	50.6%	398 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.5% (194/436)Home covered 47.0% (175/372)Favorite covered 49.0% (213/435)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Jacksonville State @8Houston46–92FINAL

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ETNo pick

Jacksonville State46

8Houston92

FINAL · we projected 59 – 79Projected total 138

OVER / UNDEROver 136.552%

14%

86%

Win chance · Houston favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass.

✓ Moneyline✓ Total

No. 8 Houston is at home against Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State went 15-17 last season.
Houston went 30-7 last season.

RecordsJacksonville State 1-2 · Houston 3-0

Players gradeJacksonville State #256 · Houston #8

Record gradeJacksonville State #184 · Houston #33

OfficialsTony Padilla, Doug Sirmons, Chris Pacsi

Ref watchDoug Sirmons: unders hit 57% of his 466 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesPacsi: Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (54 in 89 games).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Jacksonville State returns about 0% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 5 freshmen.
Houston returns about 23% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 5 freshmen.
Houston plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.

Loud arena: the Fertitta Center, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball

Official profiles: Tony Padilla, Doug Sirmons, Chris Pacsi

Tony PadillaOfficial · 202 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Padilla	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.3	34.5	109 of 284
Technicals per game	0.49	0.35	34 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.38	2.47	159 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	132 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.5%	50.6%	280 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.5% (239/483)Home covered 44.2% (170/385)Favorite covered 45.8% (220/480)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Doug SirmonsOfficial · 212 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Sirmons	League	Rank
Fouls per game	31.7	34.5	256 of 284
Technicals per game	0.37	0.35	117 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.00	2.47	251 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	174 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	42.7%	50.6%	426 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 42.7% (199/466)Home covered 54.2% (211/389)Favorite covered 53.0% (246/464)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Chris PacsiOfficial · 89 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: technicals per game.

Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (54 in 89 games)

Measure	Pacsi	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.5	34.5	91 of 284
Technicals per game	0.61	0.35	11 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.39	2.47	284 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.13	0.20	239 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.1%	50.6%	292 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.1% (85/173)Home covered 55.0% (83/151)Favorite covered 55.5% (96/173)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Robert Morris @19Arkansas53–76FINAL

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ETNo pick

Robert Morris53

19Arkansas76

FINAL · we projected 65 – 84Projected total 149

OVER / UNDERUnder 155.565%

16%

84%

Win chance · Arkansas favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass.

✓ Moneyline✓ Total

No. 19 Arkansas is at home against Robert Morris.
Robert Morris went 22-11 last season.
Arkansas went 28-9 last season.

RecordsRobert Morris 0-3 · Arkansas 2-1

Players gradeRobert Morris #150 · Arkansas #10

Record gradeRobert Morris #233 · Arkansas #66

OfficialsDoug Shows

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Robert Morris returns about 24% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 7 freshmen.
Arkansas returns about 16% of its minutes and added 2 transfers and 8 freshmen.
Arkansas plays in one of the louder arenas in college basketball.

Loud arena: Bud Walton Arena, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball

Official profile: Doug Shows

Doug ShowsOfficial · 168 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Shows	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.5	34.5	99 of 284
Technicals per game	0.36	0.35	129 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.88	2.47	55 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.24	0.20	76 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	48.5%	50.6%	314 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.5% (196/404)Home covered 50.9% (169/332)Favorite covered 49.8% (200/402)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff @9UCLA37–106FINAL

Wed Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ETNo pick

Arkansas-Pine Bluff37

9UCLA106

FINAL · we projected 62 – 93Projected total 155

OVER / UNDERUnder 156.554%

95%

Win chance · UCLA favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass.

✓ Moneyline✓ Total

No. 9 UCLA is at home against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff went 13-19 last season.
UCLA went 24-12 last season.

RecordsArkansas-Pine Bluff 0-3 · UCLA 3-0

Players gradeArkansas-Pine Bluff #354 · UCLA #22

Record gradeArkansas-Pine Bluff #292 · UCLA #39

OfficialsMike Littlewood, Larry Scirotto, John Floyd

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Arkansas-Pine Bluff returns about 3% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 2 freshmen.
UCLA returns about 48% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 5 freshmen.
Records coming in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0-3, UCLA 3-0.

Official profiles: Mike Littlewood, Larry Scirotto, John Floyd

Mike LittlewoodOfficial · 140 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Littlewood	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.1	34.5	61 of 284
Technicals per game	0.29	0.35	192 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.57	2.47	111 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	183 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	54.2%	50.6%	135 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.2% (137/253)Home covered 52.1% (112/215)Favorite covered 48.6% (123/253)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Larry ScirottoOfficial · 142 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Scirotto	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.1	34.5	116 of 284
Technicals per game	0.37	0.35	118 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.20	2.47	209 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	127 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	58.2%	50.6%	47 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 58.2% (145/249)Home covered 55.5% (116/209)Favorite covered 52.8% (130/246)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

John FloydOfficial · 125 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Floyd	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.5	34.5	147 of 284
Technicals per game	0.42	0.35	73 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.38	2.47	160 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.28	0.20	37 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.2%	50.6%	251 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.2% (147/293)Home covered 52.3% (134/256)Favorite covered 47.1% (139/295)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Lindenwood @25Nebraska60–94FINAL

Wed Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ETNo pick

Lindenwood60

25Nebraska94

FINAL · we projected 66 – 86Projected total 152

OVER / UNDERUnder 153.553%

13%

87%

Win chance · Nebraska favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass.

✓ Moneyline✗ Total

No. 25 Nebraska is at home against Lindenwood.
Lindenwood went 18-15 last season.
Nebraska went 28-7 last season.

RecordsLindenwood 2-2 · Nebraska 3-0

Players gradeLindenwood #323 · Nebraska #15

Record gradeLindenwood #291 · Nebraska #38

OfficialsKeith Kimble, Brian Dorsey, Jeffrey Anderson

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Lindenwood returns about 0% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 5 freshmen.
Nebraska returns about 40% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: Lindenwood 2-2, Nebraska 3-0.

Official profiles: Keith Kimble, Brian Dorsey, Jeffrey Anderson

Keith KimbleOfficial · 202 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Kimble	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.6	34.5	140 of 284
Technicals per game	0.30	0.35	188 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.32	2.47	178 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.23	0.20	87 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.1%	50.6%	223 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.1% (256/501)Home covered 52.5% (214/408)Favorite covered 48.5% (243/501)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Brian DorseyOfficial · 190 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Dorsey	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.3	34.5	108 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	93 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.13	2.47	222 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	139 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.1%	50.6%	157 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.1% (230/433)Home covered 49.9% (182/365)Favorite covered 46.3% (201/434)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Jeffrey AndersonOfficial · 167 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Anderson	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.2	34.5	112 of 284
Technicals per game	0.28	0.35	207 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.57	2.47	108 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.22	0.20	96 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.4%	50.6%	174 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.4% (174/332)Home covered 47.5% (140/295)Favorite covered 47.7% (159/333)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 11:00 PM ET

21USC77

California65

FINAL · we projected 78 – 77Projected total 155

SPREADCalifornia +7.562%

OVER / UNDERUnder 159.560%

54%

46%

Win chance · USC favored

OUR PICKCalifornia +7.5SPREADLOSS

0Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like California at this line; home court.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

California is at home against No. 21 USC.
USC went 18-14 last season.
California went 22-12 last season.

RecordsUSC 3-0 · California 2-2

Players gradeUSC #30 · California #93

Record gradeUSC #6 · California #112

OfficialsMichael Irving, Earl Walton, Jason Garretson

Ref watchEarl Walton: unders hit 51% of his 399 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

USC returns about 24% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 4 freshmen.
California returns about 20% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 6 freshmen.
Records coming in: USC 3-0, California 2-2.

Official profiles: Michael Irving, Earl Walton, Jason Garretson

Michael IrvingOfficial · 146 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Irving	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.5	34.5	92 of 284
Technicals per game	0.29	0.35	189 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.10	2.47	228 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.12	0.20	248 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.3%	50.6%	249 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.3% (186/370)Home covered 52.2% (157/301)Favorite covered 49.9% (184/369)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Earl WaltonOfficial · 155 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Walton	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.1	34.5	62 of 284
Technicals per game	0.15	0.35	278 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.26	2.47	193 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.12	0.20	256 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.4%	50.6%	287 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.4% (197/399)Home covered 45.8% (154/336)Favorite covered 48.4% (193/399)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Jason GarretsonOfficial · 103 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Garretson	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.9	34.5	184 of 284
Technicals per game	0.38	0.35	109 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.16	2.47	218 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.17	0.20	190 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	43.9%	50.6%	409 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 43.9% (61/139)Home covered 50.0% (56/112)Favorite covered 50.7% (70/138)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

More games 42 games

Fairleigh Dickinson @East Texas A&M64–75proj

Wed Nov 11 · 11:30 AM ETNo pick

Fairleigh Dickinson64

East Texas A&M75

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 139

OVER / UNDEROver 138.551%

30%

70%

Win chance · East Texas A&M favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

East Texas A&M is at home against Fairleigh Dickinson.
Fairleigh Dickinson went 11-21 last season.
East Texas A&M went 11-21 last season.

RecordsFairleigh Dickinson 1-2 · East Texas A&M 2-0

OfficialsDoug George, Thomas Northcutt, Josh Haug

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Fairleigh Dickinson returns about 33% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 1 freshman.
East Texas A&M returns about 0% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Records coming in: Fairleigh Dickinson 1-2, East Texas A&M 2-0.

Wed Nov 11 · 12:00 PM ET

Kansas City78

Florida A&M74

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 152

SPREADFlorida A&M +6.556%

OVER / UNDEROver 144.565%

58%

42%

Win chance · Kansas City favored

OUR PICKFlorida A&M +6.5SPREADLOSS

70Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Florida A&M at this line; neutral floor.

Florida A&M and Kansas City meet on a neutral floor.
Kansas City went 4-27 last season.
Florida A&M went 15-16 last season.

RecordsKansas City 1-2 · Florida A&M 0-3

WhereMcArthur Center (neutral floor)

OfficialsBrian Zink, Mike Evans, Will Flowers

Ref watchBrian Zink: unders hit 56% of his 193 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesZink: Lets them play: 30.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,365 in 78 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Kansas City returns about 0% of its minutes and added 15 transfers.
Florida A&M returns about 14% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Kansas City 1-2, Florida A&M 0-3.

Official profiles: Brian Zink, Mike Evans

Brian ZinkOfficial · 78 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.

Lets them play: 30.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,365 in 78 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Zink	League	Rank
Fouls per game	30.3	34.5	277 of 284
Technicals per game	0.21	0.35	260 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.28	2.47	185 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.09	0.20	272 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	44.0%	50.6%	407 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.0% (85/193)Home covered 48.9% (85/174)Favorite covered 49.7% (96/193)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Mike EvansOfficial · 120 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Evans	League	Rank
Fouls per game	31.7	34.5	255 of 284
Technicals per game	0.34	0.35	146 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.01	2.47	34 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	137 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	44.1%	50.6%	406 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.1% (93/211)Home covered 44.6% (83/186)Favorite covered 41.2% (87/211)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 1:00 PM ET

Dartmouth68

UAlbany70

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 138

SPREADUAlbany +1.559%

OVER / UNDERUnder 139.554%

44%

56%

Win chance · UAlbany favored

OUR PICKUAlbany +1.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like UAlbany at this line; home court.

UAlbany is at home against Dartmouth.
Dartmouth went 11-16 last season.
UAlbany went 11-21 last season.

RecordsDartmouth 2-1 · UAlbany 2-1

OfficialsTyler Sandmann, Dan Basile

Ref notesSandmann: Lets them play: 30.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,433 in 79 games, 2024-26).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Dartmouth returns about 66% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 2 freshmen.
UAlbany returns about 26% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: Dartmouth 2-1, UAlbany 2-1.

Official profile: Tyler Sandmann

Tyler SandmannOfficial · 79 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (low).

Lets them play: 30.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (2,433 in 79 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Sandmann	League	Rank
Fouls per game	30.8	34.5	272 of 284
Technicals per game	0.24	0.35	234 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.75	2.47	77 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.13	0.20	246 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	46.9%	50.6%	354 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.9% (67/143)Home covered 46.3% (63/136)Favorite covered 48.6% (69/142)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Incarnate Word @UC Davis67–77proj

Wed Nov 11 · 2:00 PM ETNo pick

Incarnate Word67

UC Davis77

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 144

OVER / UNDERUnder 145.554%

30%

70%

Win chance · UC Davis favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

UC Davis is at home against Incarnate Word.
Incarnate Word went 12-19 last season.
UC Davis went 19-14 last season.

RecordsIncarnate Word 0-3 · UC Davis 1-1

OfficialsVerne Harris, Amy Bonner, Edwin Young

Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Incarnate Word returns about 0% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 2 freshmen.
UC Davis returns about 73% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Records coming in: Incarnate Word 0-3, UC Davis 1-1.

Official profiles: Verne Harris, Amy Bonner, Edwin Young

Verne HarrisOfficial · 131 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Harris	League	Rank
Fouls per game	37.3	34.5	26 of 284
Technicals per game	0.24	0.35	230 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.96	2.47	258 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.12	0.20	249 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	54.9%	50.6%	114 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.9% (207/377)Home covered 53.6% (172/321)Favorite covered 53.9% (201/373)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Amy BonnerOfficial · 137 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Bonner	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.3	34.5	110 of 284
Technicals per game	0.36	0.35	128 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.40	2.47	150 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	159 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.8%	50.6%	194 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.8% (190/367)Home covered 52.8% (167/316)Favorite covered 47.7% (175/367)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Edwin YoungOfficial · 133 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Young	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.5	34.5	45 of 284
Technicals per game	0.23	0.35	243 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.27	2.47	188 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	113 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.8%	50.6%	231 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.8% (152/299)Home covered 51.9% (137/264)Favorite covered 49.7% (146/294)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 3:00 PM ET

Loyola Chicago84

Air Force81

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 165

SPREADAir Force +8.560%

OVER / UNDEROver 161.556%

57%

43%

Win chance · Loyola Chicago favored

OUR PICKAir Force +8.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Air Force at this line; home court.

Air Force is at home against Loyola Chicago.
Loyola Chicago went 9-24 last season.
Air Force went 3-29 last season.

RecordsLoyola Chicago 2-0 · Air Force 2-1

OfficialsTim Comer, Martin Cichocki, Jason Phillips

Ref notesCichocki: Calls it tight: 38.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,682 in 44 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Loyola Chicago returns about 13% of its minutes and added 10 transfers.
Air Force returns about 84% of its minutes and added 1 transfer and 5 freshmen.
Records coming in: Loyola Chicago 2-0, Air Force 2-1.

Official profiles: Tim Comer, Martin Cichocki, Jason Phillips

Tim ComerOfficial · 136 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Comer	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.7	34.5	135 of 284
Technicals per game	0.29	0.35	190 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.01	2.47	248 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	175 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	54.4%	50.6%	127 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.4% (161/296)Home covered 54.6% (142/260)Favorite covered 54.7% (162/296)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Martin CichockiOfficial · 44 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (high).

Calls it tight: 38.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,682 in 44 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Cichocki	League	Rank
Fouls per game	38.2	34.5	7 of 284
Technicals per game	0.32	0.35	167 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.02	2.47	246 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.16	0.20	209 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.8%	50.6%	232 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.8% (61/120)Home covered 55.0% (61/111)Favorite covered 55.7% (68/122)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Jason PhillipsOfficial · 124 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Phillips	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.1	34.5	173 of 284
Technicals per game	0.36	0.35	125 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.63	2.47	279 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.10	0.20	262 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.6%	50.6%	203 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.6% (65/126)Home covered 53.0% (61/115)Favorite covered 51.6% (65/126)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 3:00 PM ET

Saint Joseph's73

South Florida75

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 148

SPREADSaint Joseph's +7.560%

OVER / UNDERUnder 150.555%

44%

56%

Win chance · South Florida favored

OUR PICKSaint Joseph's +7.5SPREAD

70Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Saint Joseph's at this line; South Florida without A. Dancler; neutral floor.

South Florida and Saint Joseph's meet on a neutral floor.
Saint Joseph's went 24-12 last season.
South Florida went 25-9 last season.

Out: South FloridaA. Dancler

RecordsSaint Joseph's 2-0 · South Florida 1-1

WhereAlumni Hall (Navy) (neutral floor)

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Saint Joseph's returns about 52% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 1 freshman.
South Florida returns about 10% of its minutes and added 13 transfers and 3 freshmen.
South Florida is without A. Dancler.

Wed Nov 11 · 3:00 PM ET

South Florida73

Saint Joseph's75

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 148

SPREADSaint Joseph's +7.570%

OVER / UNDERUnder 152.559%

44%

56%

Win chance · Saint Joseph's favored

OUR PICKSaint Joseph's +7.5SPREADWIN

70Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Saint Joseph's at this line; South Florida without A. Dancler; neutral floor.

Saint Joseph's and South Florida meet on a neutral floor.
South Florida went 25-9 last season.
Saint Joseph's went 24-12 last season.

Out: South FloridaA. Dancler

RecordsSouth Florida 1-1 · Saint Joseph's 2-0

WhereAlumni Hall (Navy) (neutral floor)

OfficialsGarrick Shannon, Matt Potter, Clarence Armstrong

Ref watchGarrick Shannon: unders hit 53% of his 217 games since 2021-22. Whole crew leans under.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

South Florida returns about 10% of its minutes and added 13 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Saint Joseph's returns about 52% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 1 freshman.
South Florida is without A. Dancler.

Official profiles: Garrick Shannon, Matt Potter, Clarence Armstrong

Garrick ShannonOfficial · 112 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Shannon	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.9	34.5	186 of 284
Technicals per game	0.31	0.35	172 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.53	2.47	123 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.22	0.20	94 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	47.0%	50.6%	349 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.0% (102/217)Home covered 39.7% (77/194)Favorite covered 47.9% (105/219)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Matt PotterOfficial · 191 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Potter	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.8	34.5	233 of 284
Technicals per game	0.19	0.35	267 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.26	2.47	13 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.26	0.20	55 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	44.4%	50.6%	399 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.4% (188/423)Home covered 46.2% (166/359)Favorite covered 47.8% (202/423)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Clarence ArmstrongOfficial · 197 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Armstrong	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.2	34.5	164 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	96 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.57	2.47	112 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	185 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.1%	50.6%	252 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.1% (227/453)Home covered 50.5% (198/392)Favorite covered 47.3% (215/455)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 4:00 PM ET

North Carolina A&T74

East Carolina82

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 156

SPREADNorth Carolina A&T +10.556%

OVER / UNDEROver 152.557%

34%

66%

Win chance · East Carolina favored

OUR PICKNorth Carolina A&T +10.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like North Carolina A&T at this line.

East Carolina is at home against North Carolina A&T.
North Carolina A&T went 11-19 last season.
East Carolina went 11-20 last season.

RecordsNorth Carolina A&T 1-1 · East Carolina 1-1

OfficialsJose Carrion, Chuck Jones, Courtney Green

Ref notesJones: Calls it tight: 37.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,740 in 126 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

North Carolina A&T returns about 19% of its minutes and added 9 transfers.
East Carolina returns about 7% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: North Carolina A&T 1-1, East Carolina 1-1.

Official profiles: Jose Carrion, Chuck Jones, Courtney Green

Jose CarrionOfficial · 59 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Carrion	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.9	34.5	67 of 284
Technicals per game	0.15	0.35	275 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.10	2.47	24 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.29	0.20	34 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	58.1%	50.6%	49 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 58.1% (75/129)Home covered 50.4% (57/113)Favorite covered 49.2% (64/130)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Chuck JonesOfficial · 126 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (high).

Calls it tight: 37.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,740 in 126 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Jones	League	Rank
Fouls per game	37.6	34.5	21 of 284
Technicals per game	0.43	0.35	64 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.94	2.47	42 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.22	0.20	95 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.1%	50.6%	180 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.1% (174/334)Home covered 49.6% (137/276)Favorite covered 45.9% (152/331)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Courtney GreenOfficial · 171 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Green	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.3	34.5	111 of 284
Technicals per game	0.32	0.35	162 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.47	2.47	135 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	179 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.7%	50.6%	198 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.7% (217/420)Home covered 50.6% (174/344)Favorite covered 49.8% (208/418)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 5:00 PM ET

Bethune-Cookman70

San Diego State84

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 154

SPREADBethune-Cookman +17.556%

OVER / UNDERUnder 153.550%

23%

77%

Win chance · San Diego State favored

OUR PICKBethune-Cookman +17.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Bethune-Cookman at this line; San Diego State without N. Anderson.

San Diego State is at home against Bethune-Cookman.
Bethune-Cookman went 17-15 last season.
San Diego State went 22-11 last season.

Out: San Diego StateN. Anderson

RecordsBethune-Cookman 0-3 · San Diego State 2-0

OfficialsRandy McCall, Roger Ayers, Deldre Carr

Ref watchRoger Ayers: unders hit 58% of his 516 games since 2021-22; Deldre Carr: unders hit 56% of his 277 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesAyers: Lets them play: 30.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (6,623 in 219 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Bethune-Cookman returns about 16% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 1 freshman.
San Diego State returns about 26% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
San Diego State is without N. Anderson.

Loud arena: Viejas Arena, one of the toughest home courts in college basketball

Official profiles: Randy McCall, Roger Ayers, Deldre Carr

Randy McCallOfficial · 160 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	McCall	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.1	34.5	176 of 284
Technicals per game	0.46	0.35	47 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.31	2.47	181 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.16	0.20	216 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.8%	50.6%	140 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.8% (191/355)Home covered 46.0% (139/302)Favorite covered 49.0% (174/355)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Roger AyersOfficial · 219 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.

Lets them play: 30.2 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (6,623 in 219 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Ayers	League	Rank
Fouls per game	30.2	34.5	278 of 284
Technicals per game	0.28	0.35	204 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.01	2.47	249 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20	234 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	41.5%	50.6%	439 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 41.5% (214/516)Home covered 50.0% (219/438)Favorite covered 48.6% (251/516)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Deldre CarrOfficial · 97 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Carr	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.3	34.5	161 of 284
Technicals per game	0.33	0.35	155 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.07	2.47	234 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	170 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	44.4%	50.6%	401 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.4% (123/277)Home covered 47.4% (108/228)Favorite covered 46.4% (129/278)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 5:58 PM ET

Pennsylvania75

Navy70

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 145

SPREADNavy +7.555%

OVER / UNDERUnder 146.555%

60%

40%

Win chance · Pennsylvania favored

OUR PICKNavy +7.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Navy at this line; home court.

Navy is at home against Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania went 18-12 last season.
Navy went 26-8 last season.

RecordsPennsylvania 1-1 · Navy 2-1

OfficialsSean Hull, Mike Millione, Ryan Sassano

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Pennsylvania returns about 78% of its minutes and added 7 transfers.
Navy returns about 71% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 8 freshmen.
Records coming in: Pennsylvania 1-1, Navy 2-1.

Official profiles: Sean Hull, Mike Millione, Ryan Sassano

Sean HullOfficial · 117 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hull	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.6	34.5	137 of 284
Technicals per game	0.26	0.35	222 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.39	2.47	155 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20	235 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.7%	50.6%	142 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.7% (154/287)Home covered 50.2% (119/237)Favorite covered 49.8% (142/285)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Mike MillioneOfficial · 89 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Millione	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.0	34.5	121 of 284
Technicals per game	0.24	0.35	241 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.58	2.47	107 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	106 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.8%	50.6%	193 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.8% (102/197)Home covered 48.8% (84/172)Favorite covered 48.2% (96/199)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Ryan SassanoOfficial · 116 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Sassano	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.5	34.5	97 of 284
Technicals per game	0.34	0.35	143 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.34	2.47	171 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.13	0.20	242 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.1%	50.6%	158 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.1% (111/209)Home covered 53.1% (102/192)Favorite covered 46.6% (97/208)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 6:00 PM ET

North Carolina Central72

VMI76

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 148

SPREADNorth Carolina Central +6.555%

OVER / UNDEROver 147.550%

42%

58%

Win chance · VMI favored

OUR PICKNorth Carolina Central +6.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like North Carolina Central at this line.

VMI is at home against North Carolina Central.
North Carolina Central went 14-18 last season.
VMI went 6-26 last season.

RecordsNorth Carolina Central 0-2 · VMI 1-2

OfficialsChase Vaden, Owen Luckie

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

North Carolina Central returns about 5% of its minutes and added 11 transfers.
VMI returns about 37% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: North Carolina Central 0-2, VMI 1-2.

Wed Nov 11 · 6:30 PM ET

Charleston75

Temple80

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 155

SPREADTemple -1.558%

OVER / UNDERUnder 157.555%

39%

61%

Win chance · Temple favored

OUR PICKTemple -1.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Temple at this line; home court.

Temple is at home against Charleston.
Charleston went 21-11 last season.
Temple went 16-16 last season.

RecordsCharleston 2-0 · Temple 1-1

OfficialsRon Groover, Jason Baker, Joe Lindsay

Ref watchJason Baker: unders hit 54% of his 329 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Charleston returns about 0% of its minutes and added 2 freshmen.
Temple returns about 26% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Charleston 2-0, Temple 1-1.

Official profiles: Ron Groover, Jason Baker, Joe Lindsay

Ron GrooverOfficial · 215 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Groover	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.9	34.5	224 of 284
Technicals per game	0.40	0.35	91 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.20	2.47	210 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.12	0.20	250 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.9%	50.6%	229 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.9% (264/519)Home covered 51.0% (223/437)Favorite covered 50.9% (262/515)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Jason BakerOfficial · 140 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Baker	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.7	34.5	134 of 284
Technicals per game	0.27	0.35	210 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.73	2.47	80 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.22	0.20	97 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	45.6%	50.6%	378 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.6% (150/329)Home covered 46.6% (130/279)Favorite covered 47.1% (154/327)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Joe LindsayOfficial · 161 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Lindsay	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.5	34.5	48 of 284
Technicals per game	0.19	0.35	268 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.30	2.47	182 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.17	0.20	193 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.4%	50.6%	247 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.4% (191/379)Home covered 49.2% (154/313)Favorite covered 46.9% (177/377)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 6:30 PM ET

Southern Indiana78

IU Indianapolis82

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 160

SPREADSouthern Indiana +7.557%

OVER / UNDERUnder 163.559%

42%

58%

Win chance · IU Indianapolis favored

OUR PICKSouthern Indiana +7.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Southern Indiana at this line.

IU Indianapolis is at home against Southern Indiana.
Southern Indiana went 7-23 last season.
IU Indianapolis went 7-25 last season.

RecordsSouthern Indiana 1-2 · IU Indianapolis 2-0

OfficialsSteve Honacki, Ian Caldwell, King Whetstone

Ref notesWhetstone: Calls it tight: 37.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,769 in 47 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Southern Indiana returns about 31% of its minutes and added 11 transfers.
IU Indianapolis returns about 22% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Records coming in: Southern Indiana 1-2, IU Indianapolis 2-0.

Official profiles: Steve Honacki, Ian Caldwell, King Whetstone

Steve HonackiOfficial · 60 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Honacki	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.2	34.5	58 of 284
Technicals per game	0.42	0.35	72 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.98	2.47	39 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.27	0.20	50 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	56.0%	50.6%	89 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 56.0% (98/175)Home covered 51.8% (85/164)Favorite covered 53.7% (94/175)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Ian CaldwellOfficial · 46 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Caldwell	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.7	34.5	136 of 284
Technicals per game	0.37	0.35	115 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.80	2.47	272 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.11	0.20	258 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	54.8%	50.6%	117 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.8% (68/124)Home covered 53.0% (61/115)Favorite covered 50.4% (63/125)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

King WhetstoneOfficial · 47 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (high).

Calls it tight: 37.6 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,769 in 47 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Whetstone	League	Rank
Fouls per game	37.6	34.5	20 of 284
Technicals per game	0.49	0.35	35 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.77	2.47	74 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.17	0.20	192 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	58.9%	50.6%	36 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 58.9% (83/141)Home covered 52.5% (74/141)Favorite covered 49.3% (71/144)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

Saint Peter's58

South Carolina72

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 130

SPREADSaint Peter's +21.565%

OVER / UNDEROver 126.557%

24%

76%

Win chance · South Carolina favored

OUR PICKSaint Peter's +21.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Saint Peter's at this line; South Carolina without C. Heide, G. Polk.

South Carolina is at home against Saint Peter's.
Saint Peter's went 17-12 last season.
South Carolina went 13-19 last season.

Out: South CarolinaC. Heide, G. Polk, M. Alessanco

RecordsSaint Peter's 0-3 · South Carolina 2-0

OfficialsAnthony Jordan, Jeb Hartness, Bart Lenox

Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Saint Peter's returns about 35% of its minutes and added 8 transfers.
South Carolina returns about 4% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 4 freshmen.
South Carolina is without C. Heide, G. Polk.

Official profiles: Anthony Jordan, Jeb Hartness, Bart Lenox

Anthony JordanOfficial · 94 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Jordan	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.4	34.5	104 of 284
Technicals per game	0.31	0.35	178 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.84	2.47	61 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.35	0.20	9 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.0%	50.6%	186 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.0% (146/281)Home covered 52.2% (129/247)Favorite covered 49.3% (137/278)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Jeb HartnessOfficial · 164 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hartness	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.0	34.5	118 of 284
Technicals per game	0.30	0.35	182 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.26	2.47	192 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.15	0.20	224 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.0%	50.6%	298 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.0% (199/406)Home covered 53.3% (178/334)Favorite covered 49.5% (200/404)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Bart LenoxOfficial · 175 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Lenox	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.4	34.5	53 of 284
Technicals per game	0.26	0.35	220 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.59	2.47	104 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	112 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.2%	50.6%	153 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.2% (216/406)Home covered 53.9% (180/334)Favorite covered 54.2% (220/406)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

James Madison75

Delaware75

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 150

SPREADDelaware +3.557%

OVER / UNDERUnder 150.551%

50%

Win chance · James Madison favored

OUR PICKDelaware +3.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Delaware at this line; home court.

Delaware is at home against James Madison.
James Madison went 18-15 last season.
Delaware went 10-21 last season.

RecordsJames Madison 0-2 · Delaware 1-1

OfficialsPatrick Evans, Wil Howard, Matt Jarman

Ref watchPatrick Evans: unders hit 52% of his 271 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

James Madison returns about 24% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Delaware returns about 18% of its minutes and added 9 transfers.
Records coming in: James Madison 0-2, Delaware 1-1.

Official profiles: Patrick Evans, Wil Howard, Matt Jarman

Patrick EvansOfficial · 109 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Evans	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.0	34.5	64 of 284
Technicals per game	0.51	0.35	24 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.62	2.47	98 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.13	0.20	244 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	48.0%	50.6%	326 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.0% (130/271)Home covered 48.5% (111/229)Favorite covered 49.1% (133/271)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wil HowardOfficial · 154 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Howard	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.5	34.5	49 of 284
Technicals per game	0.36	0.35	131 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.29	2.47	8 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.30	0.20	29 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	55.6%	50.6%	98 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.6% (188/338)Home covered 43.3% (120/277)Favorite covered 45.5% (152/334)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Matt JarmanOfficial · 67 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Jarman	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.2	34.5	249 of 284
Technicals per game	0.18	0.35	271 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.52	2.47	125 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	149 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	46.4%	50.6%	367 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.4% (65/140)Home covered 47.2% (60/127)Favorite covered 50.0% (70/140)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

Cornell72

St. Bonaventure82

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 154

SPREADSt. Bonaventure -7.554%

OVER / UNDERUnder 158.560%

31%

69%

Win chance · St. Bonaventure favored

OUR PICKSt. Bonaventure -7.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like St. Bonaventure at this line; home court.

St. Bonaventure is at home against Cornell.
Cornell went 15-13 last season.
St. Bonaventure went 17-17 last season.

RecordsCornell 2-1 · St. Bonaventure 1-1

OfficialsBert Smith, Michael Kitts, Chase Shaw

Ref watchMichael Kitts: unders hit 50% of his 283 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Cornell returns about 70% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 2 freshmen.
St. Bonaventure returns about 15% of its minutes and added 11 transfers.
Records coming in: Cornell 2-1, St. Bonaventure 1-1.

Official profiles: Bert Smith, Michael Kitts, Chase Shaw

Bert SmithOfficial · 191 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Smith	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.5	34.5	201 of 284
Technicals per game	0.28	0.35	205 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.01	2.47	250 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20	237 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.6%	50.6%	200 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.6% (252/488)Home covered 50.4% (204/405)Favorite covered 53.4% (258/483)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Michael KittsOfficial · 108 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Kitts	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.5	34.5	148 of 284
Technicals per game	0.29	0.35	198 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.68	2.47	89 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	107 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.8%	50.6%	268 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.8% (141/283)Home covered 46.6% (115/247)Favorite covered 51.4% (145/282)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Chase ShawOfficial · 121 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Shaw	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.8	34.5	129 of 284
Technicals per game	0.43	0.35	63 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.83	2.47	63 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	122 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	56.7%	50.6%	71 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 56.7% (166/293)Home covered 47.2% (116/246)Favorite covered 47.8% (139/291)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

Furman80

Holy Cross70

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 150

SPREADHoly Cross +12.555%

OVER / UNDERUnder 151.554%

69%

31%

Win chance · Furman favored

OUR PICKHoly Cross +12.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Holy Cross at this line; home court.

Holy Cross is at home against Furman.
Furman went 22-13 last season.
Holy Cross went 11-22 last season.

RecordsFurman 3-0 · Holy Cross 0-2

OfficialsEvon Burroughs, Vasili Mallios, Tommy Deneen

Ref watchEvon Burroughs: unders hit 52% of his 377 games since 2021-22; Vasili Mallios: unders hit 57% of his 200 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesMallios: Lets them play: 29.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,430 in 115 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Furman returns about 54% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Holy Cross returns about 47% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Furman 3-0, Holy Cross 0-2.

Official profiles: Evon Burroughs, Vasili Mallios

Evon BurroughsOfficial · 154 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Burroughs	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.9	34.5	229 of 284
Technicals per game	0.36	0.35	130 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.36	2.47	166 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	162 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	47.5%	50.6%	339 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.5% (179/377)Home covered 44.8% (151/337)Favorite covered 49.2% (186/378)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Vasili MalliosOfficial · 115 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.

Lets them play: 29.8 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,430 in 115 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Mallios	League	Rank
Fouls per game	29.8	34.5	281 of 284
Technicals per game	0.43	0.35	66 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.81	2.47	69 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.23	0.20	90 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	43.0%	50.6%	423 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 43.0% (86/200)Home covered 44.6% (86/193)Favorite covered 40.2% (80/199)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Milwaukee @Indiana State74–79proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

Milwaukee74

Indiana State79

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 153

OVER / UNDERUnder 154.553%

40%

60%

Win chance · Indiana State favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

Indiana State is at home against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee went 12-20 last season.
Indiana State went 11-21 last season.

RecordsMilwaukee 1-2 · Indiana State 1-1

OfficialsBret Smith, Jeff Campbell

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Milwaukee returns about 26% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Indiana State returns about 0% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Records coming in: Milwaukee 1-2, Indiana State 1-1.

Official profiles: Bret Smith, Jeff Campbell

Bret SmithOfficial · 171 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Smith	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.2	34.5	216 of 284
Technicals per game	0.49	0.35	38 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.37	2.47	161 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.26	0.20	59 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	48.9%	50.6%	300 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.9% (182/372)Home covered 52.1% (162/311)Favorite covered 48.5% (180/371)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Jeff CampbellOfficial · 73 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Campbell	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.9	34.5	71 of 284
Technicals per game	0.59	0.35	15 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.77	2.47	73 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	153 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	56.5%	50.6%	73 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 56.5% (70/124)Home covered 54.9% (62/113)Favorite covered 50.4% (62/123)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Kent State @UNC Wilmington73–79proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

Kent State73

UNC Wilmington79

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 152

OVER / UNDERUnder 156.560%

37%

63%

Win chance · UNC Wilmington favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

UNC Wilmington is at home against Kent State.
Kent State went 24-10 last season.
UNC Wilmington went 27-7 last season.

RecordsKent State 1-1 · UNC Wilmington 2-0

OfficialsTim Clougherty, Bill Covington Jr., Tommy Morrissey

Ref watchTommy Morrissey: unders hit 51% of his 410 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Kent State returns about 23% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
UNC Wilmington returns about 46% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Records coming in: Kent State 1-1, UNC Wilmington 2-0.

Official profiles: Tim Clougherty, Bill Covington Jr., Tommy Morrissey

Tim CloughertyOfficial · 151 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Clougherty	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.3	34.5	244 of 284
Technicals per game	0.40	0.35	82 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.05	2.47	242 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.17	0.20	196 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.0%	50.6%	258 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (176/352)Home covered 48.8% (148/303)Favorite covered 51.3% (181/353)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Bill Covington Jr.Official · 156 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Jr.	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.0	34.5	119 of 284
Technicals per game	0.50	0.35	29 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.10	2.47	229 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.13	0.20	245 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.4%	50.6%	147 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.4% (190/356)Home covered 53.1% (163/307)Favorite covered 52.3% (185/354)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tommy MorrisseyOfficial · 172 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Morrissey	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.2	34.5	170 of 284
Technicals per game	0.35	0.35	137 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.04	2.47	244 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	142 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	48.8%	50.6%	306 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.8% (200/410)Home covered 44.2% (153/346)Favorite covered 48.3% (197/408)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Stony Brook @Princeton68–73proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

Stony Brook68

Princeton73

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 141

OVER / UNDEROver 139.553%

38%

62%

Win chance · Princeton favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

Princeton is at home against Stony Brook.
Stony Brook went 17-15 last season.
Princeton went 9-20 last season.

RecordsStony Brook 1-1 · Princeton 2-1

OfficialsMichael Luckie, Tim Smith

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Stony Brook returns about 42% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 1 freshman.
Princeton returns about 82% of its minutes and added 3 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Stony Brook 1-1, Princeton 2-1.

Official profiles: Michael Luckie, Tim Smith

Michael LuckieOfficial · 103 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Luckie	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.6	34.5	86 of 284
Technicals per game	0.21	0.35	252 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.75	2.47	76 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	105 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	57.6%	50.6%	55 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 57.6% (141/245)Home covered 46.4% (102/220)Favorite covered 49.0% (121/247)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tim SmithOfficial · 138 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Smith	League	Rank
Fouls per game	31.8	34.5	252 of 284
Technicals per game	0.25	0.35	225 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.35	2.47	170 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	161 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.7%	50.6%	271 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.7% (162/326)Home covered 49.5% (144/291)Favorite covered 49.7% (162/326)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Campbell @East Tennessee State68–74proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

Campbell68

East Tennessee State74

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 142

OVER / UNDERUnder 145.559%

37%

63%

Win chance · East Tennessee State favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

East Tennessee State is at home against Campbell.
Campbell went 16-18 last season.
East Tennessee State went 23-11 last season.

RecordsCampbell 0-2 · East Tennessee State 0-2

OfficialsChris Ford, Donta Carter, Luke Payne

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Campbell returns about 0% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 2 freshmen.
East Tennessee State returns about 7% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Records coming in: Campbell 0-2, East Tennessee State 0-2.

Official profiles: Chris Ford, Donta Carter

Chris FordOfficial · 77 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Ford	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.0	34.5	180 of 284
Technicals per game	0.29	0.35	200 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.82	2.47	67 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	177 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	57.1%	50.6%	65 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 57.1% (93/163)Home covered 51.7% (78/151)Favorite covered 52.4% (86/164)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Donta CarterOfficial · 69 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Carter	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.0	34.5	181 of 284
Technicals per game	0.30	0.35	183 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.91	2.47	48 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.33	0.20	14 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	43.4%	50.6%	416 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 43.4% (62/143)Home covered 45.5% (56/123)Favorite covered 43.6% (61/140)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

William & Mary @Florida Atlantic77–82proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

William & Mary77

Florida Atlantic82

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 159

OVER / UNDERUnder 165.564%

40%

60%

Win chance · Florida Atlantic favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

Florida Atlantic is at home against William & Mary.
William & Mary went 20-12 last season.
Florida Atlantic went 18-15 last season.

RecordsWilliam & Mary 2-0 · Florida Atlantic 1-1

OfficialsLandon Brandes, Owen Shortt, R.B. Clyburn

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

William & Mary returns about 0% of its minutes and added 14 transfers.
Florida Atlantic returns about 18% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: William & Mary 2-0, Florida Atlantic 1-1.

Official profiles: Landon Brandes, Owen Shortt, R.B. Clyburn

Landon BrandesOfficial · 103 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Brandes	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.7	34.5	194 of 284
Technicals per game	0.19	0.35	266 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.29	2.47	9 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.30	0.20	26 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	54.5%	50.6%	124 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.5% (122/224)Home covered 45.2% (85/188)Favorite covered 48.4% (107/221)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Owen ShorttOfficial · 173 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Shortt	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.4	34.5	102 of 284
Technicals per game	0.24	0.35	232 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.41	2.47	148 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20	226 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.4%	50.6%	148 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.4% (206/386)Home covered 50.8% (162/319)Favorite covered 49.6% (192/387)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

R.B. ClyburnOfficial · 70 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Clyburn	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.0	34.5	179 of 284
Technicals per game	0.23	0.35	246 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.84	2.47	58 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.16	0.20	215 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	56.1%	50.6%	87 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 56.1% (88/157)Home covered 54.2% (78/144)Favorite covered 48.4% (77/159)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

NJIT @VCU64–84proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

NJIT64

VCU84

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 148

OVER / UNDERUnder 149.554%

16%

84%

Win chance · VCU favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our number is 14 points off the line, too far to trust this early in the season.

VCU is at home against NJIT.
NJIT went 16-17 last season.
VCU went 28-8 last season.

Out: VCUJ. Tillery

RecordsNJIT 1-3 · VCU 1-1

OfficialsIsaac Barnett, Greg Evans, Anthony Eades

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

NJIT returns about 37% of its minutes and added 8 transfers.
VCU returns about 65% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 3 freshmen.
VCU is without J. Tillery.

Loud arena: the Siegel Center, a tough place for visiting teams

Official profiles: Isaac Barnett, Greg Evans, Anthony Eades

Isaac BarnettOfficial · 111 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Barnett	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.0	34.5	117 of 284
Technicals per game	0.30	0.35	187 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.97	2.47	255 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	141 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.2%	50.6%	218 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.2% (86/168)Home covered 55.2% (80/145)Favorite covered 57.5% (96/167)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Greg EvansOfficial · 167 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Evans	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.7	34.5	234 of 284
Technicals per game	0.33	0.35	156 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.72	2.47	81 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	155 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	54.8%	50.6%	118 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.8% (206/376)Home covered 48.7% (155/318)Favorite covered 46.0% (174/378)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Anthony EadesOfficial · 112 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Eades	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.3	34.5	54 of 284
Technicals per game	0.31	0.35	171 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.96	2.47	257 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.13	0.20	241 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	57.7%	50.6%	54 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 57.7% (158/274)Home covered 48.7% (111/228)Favorite covered 46.0% (126/274)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Old Dominion @Norfolk State76–70proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

Old Dominion76

Norfolk State70

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 146

OVER / UNDEROver 136.570%

62%

38%

Win chance · Old Dominion favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

Norfolk State is at home against Old Dominion.
Old Dominion went 12-21 last season.
Norfolk State went 15-17 last season.

RecordsOld Dominion 3-0 · Norfolk State 2-1

OfficialsKendell Ridley, Leslie Jones

Ref watchLeslie Jones: unders hit 52% of his 161 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Old Dominion returns about 38% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Norfolk State returns about 9% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Old Dominion 3-0, Norfolk State 2-1.

Official profile: Leslie Jones

Leslie JonesOfficial · 63 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Jones	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.7	34.5	192 of 284
Technicals per game	0.30	0.35	184 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.17	2.47	215 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.10	0.20	268 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	47.8%	50.6%	328 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.8% (77/161)Home covered 56.8% (88/155)Favorite covered 56.2% (90/160)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

South Carolina State @Notre Dame68–84proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

South Carolina State68

Notre Dame84

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 152

OVER / UNDEROver 149.556%

21%

79%

Win chance · Notre Dame favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our number is 11 points off the line, too far to trust this early in the season.

Notre Dame is at home against South Carolina State.
South Carolina State went 10-22 last season.
Notre Dame went 13-18 last season.

Out: Notre DameT. Ahneman

RecordsSouth Carolina State 3-0 · Notre Dame 3-0

OfficialsLee Cassell, A.J. Desai, Randall Wells

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

South Carolina State returns about 40% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Notre Dame returns about 35% of its minutes and added 12 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Notre Dame is without T. Ahneman.

Official profiles: Lee Cassell, A.J. Desai, Randall Wells

Lee CassellOfficial · 197 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Cassell	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.2	34.5	113 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	97 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.06	2.47	237 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20	233 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.8%	50.6%	234 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.8% (233/459)Home covered 50.1% (195/389)Favorite covered 50.8% (234/461)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

A.J. DesaiOfficial · 182 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Desai	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.2	34.5	169 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	101 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.40	2.47	151 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	150 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.6%	50.6%	273 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.6% (201/405)Home covered 42.7% (141/330)Favorite covered 47.9% (193/403)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Randall WellsOfficial · 48 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Wells	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.4	34.5	153 of 284
Technicals per game	0.27	0.35	211 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.73	2.47	79 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	164 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	39.3%	50.6%	451 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 39.3% (22/56)Home covered 45.8% (22/48)Favorite covered 41.1% (23/56)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

UNC Asheville @West Georgia73–76proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

UNC Asheville73

West Georgia76

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 149

OVER / UNDERUnder 149.552%

45%

55%

Win chance · West Georgia favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

West Georgia is at home against UNC Asheville.
UNC Asheville went 15-17 last season.
West Georgia went 15-17 last season.

RecordsUNC Asheville 1-2 · West Georgia 0-2

OfficialsSidney Cohen, Todd Austin, Hunter Allen

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

UNC Asheville returns about 26% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
West Georgia returns about 33% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: UNC Asheville 1-2, West Georgia 0-2.

Official profiles: Sidney Cohen, Todd Austin, Hunter Allen

Sidney CohenOfficial · 50 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Cohen	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.1	34.5	172 of 284
Technicals per game	0.28	0.35	201 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.54	2.47	122 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.28	0.20	36 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	47.3%	50.6%	343 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.3% (52/110)Home covered 44.9% (44/98)Favorite covered 46.9% (53/113)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Todd AustinOfficial · 141 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Austin	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.9	34.5	127 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	102 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.70	2.47	85 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.26	0.20	60 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	55.0%	50.6%	109 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.0% (186/338)Home covered 54.2% (155/286)Favorite covered 52.7% (177/336)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Hunter AllenOfficial · 78 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Allen	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.2	34.5	215 of 284
Technicals per game	0.12	0.35	281 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.26	2.47	14 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.35	0.20	11 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	57.2%	50.6%	60 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 57.2% (99/173)Home covered 55.2% (90/163)Favorite covered 48.0% (83/173)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

American University @Drexel68–69proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

American University68

Drexel69

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 137

OVER / UNDERUnder 138.553%

48%

52%

Win chance · Drexel favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

Drexel is at home against American University.
American University went 16-16 last season.
Drexel went 17-16 last season.

RecordsAmerican University 0-2 · Drexel 1-1

OfficialsTim Kelly, Sean Campbell, Ed Corliss

Ref watchEd Corliss: unders hit 55% of his 309 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

American University returns about 79% of its minutes and added 4 transfers.
Drexel returns about 19% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: American University 0-2, Drexel 1-1.

Official profiles: Tim Kelly, Sean Campbell, Ed Corliss

Tim KellyOfficial · 74 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Kelly	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.9	34.5	68 of 284
Technicals per game	0.31	0.35	176 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.41	2.47	6 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.30	0.20	31 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	55.9%	50.6%	93 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.9% (119/213)Home covered 47.9% (91/190)Favorite covered 50.5% (108/214)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Sean CampbellOfficial · 49 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Campbell	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.2	34.5	218 of 284
Technicals per game	0.16	0.35	273 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.29	2.47	11 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	128 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.6%	50.6%	272 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.6% (68/137)Home covered 47.8% (65/136)Favorite covered 55.5% (76/137)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Ed CorlissOfficial · 137 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Corliss	League	Rank
Fouls per game	31.8	34.5	253 of 284
Technicals per game	0.28	0.35	206 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.49	2.47	131 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	125 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	45.0%	50.6%	390 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.0% (139/309)Home covered 47.7% (127/266)Favorite covered 47.9% (146/305)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

UMass Lowell @Massachusetts71–78proj

Wed Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETNo pick

UMass Lowell71

Massachusetts78

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 149

OVER / UNDERUnder 151.555%

36%

64%

Win chance · Massachusetts favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

Massachusetts is at home against UMass Lowell.
UMass Lowell went 15-18 last season.
Massachusetts went 17-16 last season.

RecordsUMass Lowell 3-0 · Massachusetts 1-1

OfficialsJuan Corral, Randy Richardson, Tariq Lucas

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

UMass Lowell returns about 33% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Massachusetts returns about 35% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: UMass Lowell 3-0, Massachusetts 1-1.

Official profiles: Juan Corral, Randy Richardson, Tariq Lucas

Juan CorralOfficial · 28 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Only 28 games of 2024-26 play-by-play on record: too few to judge.

Measure	Corral	League	Rank
Fouls per game	37.3	34.5
Technicals per game	0.50	0.35
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.14	2.47
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	60.0%	50.6%	27 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 60.0% (48/80)Home covered 55.4% (41/74)Favorite covered 58.0% (47/81)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Randy RichardsonOfficial · 157 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Richardson	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.3	34.5	160 of 284
Technicals per game	0.37	0.35	116 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.43	2.47	141 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	115 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	55.9%	50.6%	90 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.9% (193/345)Home covered 47.4% (135/285)Favorite covered 46.0% (159/346)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tariq LucasOfficial · 73 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Lucas	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.9	34.5	70 of 284
Technicals per game	0.51	0.35	28 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.40	2.47	152 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	152 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	48.7%	50.6%	307 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.7% (77/158)Home covered 46.1% (71/154)Favorite covered 46.9% (75/160)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET

Pepperdine78

Sam Houston80

OUR PROJECTED SCOREProjected total 158

SPREADSam Houston +1.558%

OVER / UNDERUnder 159.554%

45%

55%

Win chance · Sam Houston favored

OUR PICKSam Houston +1.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Sam Houston at this line; home court.

Sam Houston is at home against Pepperdine.
Pepperdine went 9-23 last season.
Sam Houston went 22-12 last season.

RecordsPepperdine 2-1 · Sam Houston 1-1

OfficialsLucas Santos, James Curran, John Johnson

Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Pepperdine returns about 0% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 5 freshmen.
Sam Houston returns about 29% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Records coming in: Pepperdine 2-1, Sam Houston 1-1.

Official profiles: Lucas Santos, James Curran, John Johnson

Lucas SantosOfficial · 146 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Santos	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.8	34.5	189 of 284
Technicals per game	0.42	0.35	67 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.57	2.47	113 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20	227 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	46.9%	50.6%	352 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.9% (130/277)Home covered 49.4% (116/235)Favorite covered 46.5% (128/275)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

James CurranOfficial · 72 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Curran	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.0	34.5	223 of 284
Technicals per game	0.24	0.35	240 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.82	2.47	66 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.25	0.20	67 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.0%	50.6%	256 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (57/114)Home covered 45.8% (49/107)Favorite covered 47.8% (55/115)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

John JohnsonOfficial · 68 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Johnson	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.1	34.5	219 of 284
Technicals per game	0.28	0.35	203 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.40	2.47	153 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.15	0.20	223 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	44.2%	50.6%	405 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.2% (38/86)Home covered 49.3% (35/71)Favorite covered 40.7% (35/86)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

Oral Roberts71

Tulsa80

FINAL · we projected 70 – 84Projected total 154

SPREADOral Roberts +19.561%

OVER / UNDERUnder 155.554%

24%

76%

Win chance · Tulsa favored

OUR PICKOral Roberts +19.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Oral Roberts at this line.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Tulsa is at home against Oral Roberts.
Oral Roberts went 10-23 last season.
Tulsa went 30-8 last season.

RecordsOral Roberts 1-1 · Tulsa 2-0

OfficialsByron Jarrett, K.B. Burdett Jr.

Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Oral Roberts returns about 46% of its minutes and added 10 transfers.
Tulsa returns about 31% of its minutes and added 10 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Oral Roberts 1-1, Tulsa 2-0.

Official profiles: Byron Jarrett, K.B. Burdett Jr.

Byron JarrettOfficial · 164 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Jarrett	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.5	34.5	98 of 284
Technicals per game	0.36	0.35	127 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.27	2.47	186 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	119 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.6%	50.6%	165 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.6% (209/397)Home covered 50.3% (163/324)Favorite covered 53.7% (213/397)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

K.B. Burdett Jr.Official · 110 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Jr.	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.7	34.5	36 of 284
Technicals per game	0.45	0.35	48 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.83	2.47	64 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	157 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	55.4%	50.6%	101 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.4% (118/213)Home covered 45.1% (88/195)Favorite covered 52.1% (110/211)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

Santa Clara76

North Texas71

FINAL · we projected 75 – 75Projected total 150

SPREADNorth Texas +2.555%

OVER / UNDERUnder 154.561%

50%

Win chance · Santa Clara favored

OUR PICKNorth Texas +2.5SPREAD

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like North Texas at this line; home court.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

North Texas is at home against Santa Clara.
Santa Clara went 26-9 last season.
North Texas went 19-14 last season.

RecordsSanta Clara 3-0 · North Texas 2-0

OfficialsDon Daily, Bharat Ramnanan, Erroll Lewis

Ref watchBharat Ramnanan: unders hit 54% of his 230 games since 2021-22; Erroll Lewis: unders hit 57% of his 178 games since 2021-22. Whole crew leans under.

Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Santa Clara returns about 50% of its minutes and added 9 transfers.
North Texas returns about 45% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Records coming in: Santa Clara 3-0, North Texas 2-0.

Official profiles: Don Daily, Bharat Ramnanan, Erroll Lewis

Don DailyOfficial · 130 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Daily	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.5	34.5	150 of 284
Technicals per game	0.32	0.35	168 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.37	2.47	163 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	138 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.4%	50.6%	246 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.4% (186/369)Home covered 51.2% (152/297)Favorite covered 50.1% (184/367)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Bharat RamnananOfficial · 117 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Ramnanan	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.9	34.5	225 of 284
Technicals per game	0.21	0.35	261 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.40	2.47	149 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.24	0.20	73 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	46.5%	50.6%	365 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.5% (107/230)Home covered 48.2% (92/191)Favorite covered 50.9% (117/230)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Erroll LewisOfficial · 95 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Lewis	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.1	34.5	220 of 284
Technicals per game	0.31	0.35	179 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.59	2.47	106 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	160 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	42.7%	50.6%	427 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 42.7% (76/178)Home covered 44.0% (70/159)Favorite covered 44.4% (80/180)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

Jackson State80

Southern Miss84

FINAL · we projected 78 – 85Projected total 163

SPREADJackson State +9.555%

OVER / UNDEROver 152.569%

36%

64%

Win chance · Southern Miss favored

OUR PICKJackson State +9.5SPREAD

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Jackson State at this line.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Southern Miss is at home against Jackson State.
Jackson State went 12-21 last season.
Southern Miss went 19-16 last season.

RecordsJackson State 1-2 · Southern Miss 1-1

OfficialsSteven Anderson, Tucson Grigg, Shaun Seales

Ref watchShaun Seales: unders hit 54% of his 212 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesGrigg: Lets them play: 29.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,612 in 55 games, 2024-26). Low-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Jackson State returns about 64% of its minutes and added 6 transfers.
Southern Miss returns about 15% of its minutes and added 12 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Jackson State 1-2, Southern Miss 1-1.

Official profiles: Steven Anderson, Tucson Grigg, Shaun Seales

Steven AndersonOfficial · 167 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Anderson	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.5	34.5	95 of 284
Technicals per game	0.29	0.35	197 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.11	2.47	224 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	154 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	51.9%	50.6%	188 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 51.9% (195/376)Home covered 51.1% (161/315)Favorite covered 50.5% (189/374)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tucson GriggOfficial · 55 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (low).

Lets them play: 29.3 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,612 in 55 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Grigg	League	Rank
Fouls per game	29.3	34.5	283 of 284
Technicals per game	0.13	0.35	280 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.85	2.47	57 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.27	0.20	47 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	42.1%	50.6%	435 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 42.1% (48/114)Home covered 44.3% (47/106)Favorite covered 50.9% (59/116)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Shaun SealesOfficial · 106 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	Seales	League	Rank
Fouls per game	31.6	34.5	259 of 284
Technicals per game	0.15	0.35	276 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.26	2.47	190 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.23	0.20	89 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	46.2%	50.6%	369 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.2% (98/212)Home covered 50.8% (95/187)Favorite covered 48.4% (103/213)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET

Stephen F. Austin76

Abilene Christian71

FINAL · we projected 72 – 71Projected total 143

SPREADAbilene Christian +4.555%

OVER / UNDEROver 142.551%

54%

46%

Win chance · Stephen F. Austin favored

OUR PICKAbilene Christian +4.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Abilene Christian at this line; home court.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Abilene Christian is at home against Stephen F. Austin.
Stephen F. Austin went 28-6 last season.
Abilene Christian went 14-19 last season.

RecordsStephen F. Austin 2-0 · Abilene Christian 1-1

OfficialsRob Rorke, Eric Kronebusch, Jarrett Howell

Ref notesLow-foul crew: crews like this went under 58% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Stephen F. Austin returns about 0% of its minutes and added 4 freshmen.
Abilene Christian returns about 31% of its minutes and added 9 transfers.
Records coming in: Stephen F. Austin 2-0, Abilene Christian 1-1.

Official profiles: Rob Rorke, Eric Kronebusch

Rob RorkeOfficial · 112 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Rorke	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.8	34.5	130 of 284
Technicals per game	0.27	0.35	215 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.43	2.47	5 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.28	0.20	42 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.4%	50.6%	172 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.4% (152/290)Home covered 44.8% (111/248)Favorite covered 43.8% (128/292)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Eric KronebuschOfficial · 42 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Kronebusch	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.1	34.5	250 of 284
Technicals per game	0.38	0.35	107 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.36	2.47	167 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.31	0.20	21 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	57.1%	50.6%	63 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 57.1% (44/77)Home covered 49.3% (34/69)Favorite covered 52.6% (40/76)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Valparaiso @South Dakota State69–81FINAL

Wed Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ETNo pick

Valparaiso69

South Dakota State81

FINAL · we projected 73 – 70Projected total 143

OVER / UNDEROver 141.553%

55%

45%

Win chance · Valparaiso favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our numbers and the betting line are close on this one, so there is no side to take.

✗ Moneyline✓ Total

South Dakota State is at home against Valparaiso.
Valparaiso went 18-15 last season.
South Dakota State went 14-18 last season.

RecordsValparaiso 2-0 · South Dakota State 2-0

OfficialsMike O'Neill, Tim Stewart, Luke Schumer

Ref watchMike O'Neill: unders hit 50% of his 113 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesO'Neill: Calls it tight: 38.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,925 in 50 games, 2024-26). Schumer: Calls it tight: 38.4 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,799 in 99 games, 2024-26). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Valparaiso returns about 63% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 2 freshmen.
South Dakota State returns about 44% of its minutes and added 5 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Records coming in: Valparaiso 2-0, South Dakota State 2-0.

Official profiles: Mike O'Neill, Tim Stewart, Luke Schumer

Mike O'NeillOfficial · 50 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (high). On the under watch list.

Calls it tight: 38.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (1,925 in 50 games, 2024-26)

Measure	O'Neill	League	Rank
Fouls per game	38.5	34.5	4 of 284
Technicals per game	0.34	0.35	147 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.92	2.47	45 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.32	0.20	17 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.4%	50.6%	244 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.4% (57/113)Home covered 52.3% (58/111)Favorite covered 53.5% (61/114)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tim StewartOfficial · 84 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Stewart	League	Rank
Fouls per game	37.1	34.5	29 of 284
Technicals per game	0.50	0.35	30 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.19	2.47	211 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.24	0.20	75 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.3%	50.6%	151 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.3% (121/227)Home covered 47.0% (87/185)Favorite covered 45.8% (103/225)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Luke SchumerOfficial · 99 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (high).

Calls it tight: 38.4 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (3,799 in 99 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Schumer	League	Rank
Fouls per game	38.4	34.5	6 of 284
Technicals per game	0.25	0.35	226 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.56	2.47	116 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	151 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	56.4%	50.6%	78 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 56.4% (93/165)Home covered 41.6% (64/154)Favorite covered 43.5% (73/168)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET

Portland State71

Colorado State87

FINAL · we projected 69 – 80Projected total 149

SPREADPortland State +14.555%

OVER / UNDERUnder 150.553%

27%

73%

Win chance · Colorado State favored

OUR PICKPortland State +14.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Portland State at this line.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

Colorado State is at home against Portland State.
Portland State went 20-11 last season.
Colorado State went 21-13 last season.

RecordsPortland State 1-1 · Colorado State 2-0

OfficialsKipp Kissinger, Marques Pettigrew, Justin Albrecht

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Portland State returns about 6% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Colorado State returns about 75% of its minutes and added 4 transfers and 5 freshmen.
Records coming in: Portland State 1-1, Colorado State 2-0.

Official profiles: Kipp Kissinger, Marques Pettigrew, Justin Albrecht

Kipp KissingerOfficial · 234 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Kissinger	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.5	34.5	239 of 284
Technicals per game	0.50	0.35	32 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.97	2.47	256 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.18	0.20	182 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	44.9%	50.6%	393 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.9% (237/528)Home covered 53.0% (229/432)Favorite covered 51.9% (273/526)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Marques PettigrewOfficial · 193 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Pettigrew	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.1	34.5	171 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	104 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.89	2.47	265 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	167 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	47.7%	50.6%	332 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.7% (200/419)Home covered 47.4% (152/321)Favorite covered 47.5% (200/421)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Justin AlbrechtOfficial · 48 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Albrecht	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.7	34.5	79 of 284
Technicals per game	0.31	0.35	173 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.81	2.47	271 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.08	0.20	275 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	43.1%	50.6%	422 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 43.1% (31/72)Home covered 61.1% (44/72)Favorite covered 64.4% (47/73)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET

Nevada63

UC Santa Barbara76

FINAL · we projected 71 – 73Projected total 144

SPREADUC Santa Barbara +1.557%

OVER / UNDERUnder 146.557%

46%

54%

Win chance · UC Santa Barbara favored

OUR PICKUC Santa Barbara +1.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like UC Santa Barbara at this line; home court.

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

UC Santa Barbara is at home against Nevada.
Nevada went 24-13 last season.
UC Santa Barbara went 18-14 last season.

RecordsNevada 2-0 · UC Santa Barbara 2-0

OfficialsShawn Lehigh, John Hampton, Eric Curry

Ref notesCurry: Calls it tight: 38.0 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,868 in 128 games, 2024-26). Curry: Quick with technicals: 0.55 a game vs 0.35 average (70 in 128 games). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Nevada returns about 45% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 3 freshmen.
UC Santa Barbara returns about 61% of its minutes and added 8 transfers.
Records coming in: Nevada 2-0, UC Santa Barbara 2-0.

Official profiles: Shawn Lehigh, John Hampton, Eric Curry

Shawn LehighOfficial · 41 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Lehigh	League	Rank
Fouls per game	38.5	34.5	3 of 284
Technicals per game	0.39	0.35	100 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	3.02	2.47	33 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.41	0.20	3 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	53.6%	50.6%	143 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 53.6% (81/151)Home covered 48.0% (61/127)Favorite covered 52.0% (78/150)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

John HamptonOfficial · 93 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hampton	League	Rank
Fouls per game	32.3	34.5	246 of 284
Technicals per game	0.29	0.35	194 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.02	2.47	247 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.13	0.20	243 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.0%	50.6%	183 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.0% (116/223)Home covered 52.4% (99/189)Favorite covered 44.9% (102/227)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Eric CurryOfficial · 128 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (high), technicals per game.

Calls it tight: 38.0 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (4,868 in 128 games, 2024-26)
Quick with technicals: 0.55 a game vs 0.35 average (70 in 128 games)

Measure	Curry	League	Rank
Fouls per game	38.0	34.5	9 of 284
Technicals per game	0.55	0.35	20 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.67	2.47	91 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.23	0.20	88 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	55.4%	50.6%	102 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.4% (195/352)Home covered 53.1% (153/288)Favorite covered 53.3% (187/351)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET

Cal Poly71

Grand Canyon99

FINAL · we projected 77 – 91Projected total 168

SPREADCal Poly +18.559%

OVER / UNDERUnder 181.575%

23%

77%

Win chance · Grand Canyon favored

OUR PICKCal Poly +18.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Cal Poly at this line.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

Grand Canyon is at home against Cal Poly.
Cal Poly went 14-19 last season.
Grand Canyon went 20-12 last season.

RecordsCal Poly 1-1 · Grand Canyon 2-0

OfficialsCasey McClellan, Rob Kueneman

Ref notesMcClellan: Quick with technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.35 average (30 in 47 games). High-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Cal Poly returns about 93% of its minutes and added 1 transfer and 1 freshman.
Grand Canyon returns about 32% of its minutes and added 9 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Cal Poly 1-1, Grand Canyon 2-0.

Official profiles: Casey McClellan, Rob Kueneman

Casey McClellanOfficial · 47 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: technicals per game.

Quick with technicals: 0.64 a game vs 0.35 average (30 in 47 games)

Measure	McClellan	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.4	34.5	51 of 284
Technicals per game	0.64	0.35	9 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.96	2.47	259 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.11	0.20	261 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	48.3%	50.6%	318 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.3% (69/143)Home covered 42.4% (53/125)Favorite covered 46.5% (67/144)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Rob KuenemanOfficial · 90 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Kueneman	League	Rank
Fouls per game	37.3	34.5	23 of 284
Technicals per game	0.42	0.35	68 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.20	2.47	208 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.23	0.20	79 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	57.0%	50.6%	67 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 57.0% (135/237)Home covered 53.8% (113/210)Favorite covered 53.4% (126/236)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET

Oakland79

Boise State111

FINAL · we projected 65 – 80Projected total 145

SPREADOakland +16.554%

OVER / UNDERUnder 159.577%

23%

77%

Win chance · Boise State favored

OUR PICKOakland +16.5SPREADLOSS

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Oakland at this line.

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

Boise State is at home against Oakland.
Oakland went 16-16 last season.
Boise State went 20-12 last season.

RecordsOakland 0-4 · Boise State 2-0

OfficialsMichael Greenstein, Gregory Nixon, Justin Shamion

Ref notesShamion: Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (57 in 94 games).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Oakland returns about 27% of its minutes and added 12 transfers.
Boise State returns about 68% of its minutes and added 3 transfers and 3 freshmen.
Records coming in: Oakland 0-4, Boise State 2-0.

Official profiles: Michael Greenstein, Gregory Nixon, Justin Shamion

Michael GreensteinOfficial · 170 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Greenstein	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.5	34.5	94 of 284
Technicals per game	0.47	0.35	42 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.45	2.47	139 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.32	0.20	18 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.0%	50.6%	184 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.0% (208/400)Home covered 52.5% (166/316)Favorite covered 50.1% (200/399)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Gregory NixonOfficial · 173 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Nixon	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.6	34.5	83 of 284
Technicals per game	0.35	0.35	134 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.12	2.47	223 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	158 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.8%	50.6%	235 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.8% (201/396)Home covered 48.6% (157/323)Favorite covered 48.1% (192/399)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Justin ShamionOfficial · 94 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: technicals per game.

Quick with technicals: 0.61 a game vs 0.35 average (57 in 94 games)

Measure	Shamion	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.3	34.5	162 of 284
Technicals per game	0.61	0.35	12 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.18	2.47	213 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.16	0.20	208 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	49.8%	50.6%	270 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.8% (100/201)Home covered 51.4% (92/179)Favorite covered 54.7% (111/203)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET

Pacific59

Long Beach State62

FINAL · we projected 74 – 71Projected total 145

SPREADLong Beach State +6.557%

OVER / UNDEROver 138.563%

56%

44%

Win chance · Pacific favored

OUR PICKLong Beach State +6.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Long Beach State at this line; home court.

✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

Long Beach State is at home against Pacific.
Pacific went 18-15 last season.
Long Beach State went 10-22 last season.

RecordsPacific 2-0 · Long Beach State 0-2

OfficialsDeron White, Ray Ames

Ref watchDeron White: unders hit 60% of his 273 games since 2021-22.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Pacific returns about 17% of its minutes and added 7 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Long Beach State returns about 10% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 1 freshman.
Records coming in: Pacific 2-0, Long Beach State 0-2.

Official profiles: Deron White, Ray Ames

Deron WhiteOfficial · 121 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note. On the under watch list.

Measure	White	League	Rank
Fouls per game	33.3	34.5	212 of 284
Technicals per game	0.40	0.35	89 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.26	2.47	189 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	121 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	40.3%	50.6%	447 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 40.3% (110/273)Home covered 47.4% (109/230)Favorite covered 51.1% (139/272)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Ray AmesOfficial · 58 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Ames	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.6	34.5	82 of 284
Technicals per game	0.45	0.35	52 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.48	2.47	133 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.14	0.20	232 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.0%	50.6%	264 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (51/102)Home covered 52.3% (46/88)Favorite covered 51.9% (54/104)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET

UTSA86

Seattle U59

FINAL · we projected 69 – 79Projected total 148

SPREADUTSA +15.561%

OVER / UNDERUnder 148.551%

30%

70%

Win chance · Seattle U favored

OUR PICKUTSA +15.5SPREADWIN

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like UTSA at this line.

✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

Seattle U is at home against UTSA.
UTSA went 5-25 last season.
Seattle U went 21-14 last season.

RecordsUTSA 1-1 · Seattle U 1-1

OfficialsChris Hudson, Tyler Kumpf, James Ford

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

UTSA returns about 1% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Seattle U returns about 49% of its minutes and added 6 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Records coming in: UTSA 1-1, Seattle U 1-1.

Official profiles: Chris Hudson, Tyler Kumpf, James Ford

Chris HudsonOfficial · 64 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hudson	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.5	34.5	144 of 284
Technicals per game	0.48	0.35	41 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.42	2.47	144 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.09	0.20	269 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	45.0%	50.6%	391 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 45.0% (76/169)Home covered 57.4% (85/148)Favorite covered 50.6% (86/170)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tyler KumpfOfficial · 124 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Kumpf	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.2	34.5	114 of 284
Technicals per game	0.40	0.35	92 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.32	2.47	177 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.21	0.20	116 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.5%	50.6%	243 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.5% (143/283)Home covered 51.6% (116/225)Favorite covered 49.1% (139/283)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

James FordOfficial · 89 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Ford	League	Rank
Fouls per game	35.8	34.5	75 of 284
Technicals per game	0.27	0.35	212 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.39	2.47	154 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.20	0.20	134 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	47.8%	50.6%	330 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.8% (75/157)Home covered 53.9% (76/141)Favorite covered 52.9% (82/155)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Wed Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET

Chicago State81

California Baptist62

FINAL · we projected 63 – 73Projected total 136

SPREADChicago State +12.555%

OVER / UNDERUnder 137.555%

31%

69%

Win chance · California Baptist favored

OUR PICKChicago State +12.5SPREAD

75Input quality (not a win chance)

Our power numbers like Chicago State at this line.

✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

California Baptist is at home against Chicago State.
Chicago State went 7-25 last season.
California Baptist went 25-9 last season.

RecordsChicago State 1-2 · California Baptist 0-2

OfficialsMatthew Rukasin, Chance Moore, Tommy Johnson

Ref watchChance Moore: unders hit 56% of his 349 games since 2021-22.

Ref notesRukasin: Quick with technicals: 0.63 a game vs 0.35 average (55 in 87 games). Moore: Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (5,193 in 165 games, 2024-26).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Chicago State returns about 11% of its minutes and added 14 transfers.
California Baptist returns about 23% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 4 freshmen.
Records coming in: Chicago State 1-2, California Baptist 0-2.

Official profiles: Matthew Rukasin, Chance Moore, Tommy Johnson

Matthew RukasinOfficial · 87 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: technicals per game.

Quick with technicals: 0.63 a game vs 0.35 average (55 in 87 games)

Measure	Rukasin	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.7	34.5	39 of 284
Technicals per game	0.63	0.35	10 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.33	2.47	174 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.11	0.20	257 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	54.5%	50.6%	122 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 54.5% (96/176)Home covered 46.8% (72/154)Favorite covered 55.1% (97/176)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Chance MooreOfficial · 165 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Stands out on: fouls per game (low). On the under watch list.

Lets them play: 31.5 fouls a game vs 34.5 average (5,193 in 165 games, 2024-26)

Measure	Moore	League	Rank
Fouls per game	31.5	34.5	261 of 284
Technicals per game	0.42	0.35	70 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	1.90	2.47	263 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.15	0.20	225 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	43.8%	50.6%	410 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 43.8% (153/349)Home covered 54.2% (163/301)Favorite covered 57.1% (200/350)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Tommy JohnsonOfficial · 140 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Johnson	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.0	34.5	177 of 284
Technicals per game	0.37	0.35	112 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.80	2.47	71 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.26	0.20	52 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.4%	50.6%	245 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.4% (122/242)Home covered 48.5% (97/200)Favorite covered 42.5% (102/240)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Mississippi Valley State @Oregon66–100FINAL

Wed Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ETNo pick

Mississippi Valley State66

Oregon100

FINAL · we projected 62 – 86Projected total 148

OVER / UNDERUnder 150.556%

12%

88%

Win chance · Oregon favored

OUR PICKNo pick

Pass. Our number is 10 points off the line, too far to trust this early in the season.

✓ Moneyline✗ Total

Oregon is at home against Mississippi Valley State.
Mississippi Valley State went 3-30 last season.
Oregon went 12-20 last season.

Out: OregonT. Riley IV

RecordsMississippi Valley State 0-2 · Oregon 2-0

OfficialsSteve McJunkins, Nate Harris, Andy O'Brien

Ref notesHigh-foul crew: crews like this went over 55% last season.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Mississippi Valley State returns about 0% of its minutes and added 8 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Oregon returns about 17% of its minutes and added 11 transfers and 2 freshmen.
Oregon is without T. Riley IV.

Official profiles: Steve McJunkins, Nate Harris, Andy O'Brien

Steve McJunkinsOfficial · 113 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	McJunkins	League	Rank
Fouls per game	34.5	34.5	151 of 284
Technicals per game	0.26	0.35	221 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.34	2.47	173 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.19	0.20	169 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	50.7%	50.6%	237 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.7% (146/288)Home covered 46.8% (116/248)Favorite covered 49.0% (142/290)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Nate HarrisOfficial · 141 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Harris	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.6	34.5	42 of 284
Technicals per game	0.32	0.35	165 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.17	2.47	216 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.11	0.20	260 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	55.2%	50.6%	106 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 55.2% (169/306)Home covered 48.0% (122/254)Favorite covered 55.9% (170/304)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.

Andy O'BrienOfficial · 119 games · 2024-26 (betting 2021-26)

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	O'Brien	League	Rank
Fouls per game	36.6	34.5	40 of 284
Technicals per game	0.49	0.35	36 of 284
Late calls in close games per game, last 5:00 / OT, within 5 points	2.60	2.47	103 of 284
Pivotal calls per game, 10+ pt win-probability swing on the call	0.24	0.20	69 of 284
Over % of games worked 2021-26 lined games	52.0%	50.6%	182 of 462

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.0% (127/244)Home covered 46.2% (103/223)Favorite covered 48.4% (118/244)

Fouls, technicals and late calls are 2024-26 play-by-play only and are credited to all three officials; college officials are only posted at tip-off.