MONDAY NOV 16 upcoming games
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Los Angeles (C)16
–
22Baltimore
SPREAD
Baltimore -5.5
51% chance to cover
Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET
Los Angeles (C)
@
Baltimore
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKBaltimore -5.5
SPREAD
Our team ratings like Baltimore more than the betting line does; Los Angeles (C) has more key players out; home field for Baltimore; Baltimore is better rested.
- We make Baltimore the more likely winner (72%), projecting about 16-22 (Los Angeles (C) 16, Baltimore 22).
- Overall we rank Baltimore 29th and Los Angeles (C) 32nd of 32.
Out: Los Angeles (C): I. World (OT), B. Taylor (G), I. Waxter (CB), K. Williamson (S), T. Lance (QB), D. Njoku (TE), R. Slater (OT), T. Pipkins III (OT), and 5 more · Baltimore: J. Hawkins (S), L. Jackson (QB), S. Thompson (QB), T. Huntley (QB), A. Randall (RB), D. Smythe (TE), J. Gwyn (G), D. Pinter (C), and 5 more
Officials: Referee Land Clark
Game-time forecast: 43°F, clear.
Loud stadium for visiting teams
Top props (7)
TOP PROPS
- Keaton Mitchell (RB) Over 24.5 rush + rec yards 57%Expected game flow helps.
- Justice Hill (RB) Over 29.5 rush + rec yards 56%Expected game flow helps; efficient with his touches.
- Justin Herbert (QB) Over 206.5 passing yards 56%Soft pass defense; likely chasing the game, more throws.
- Omarion Hampton (RB) Over 40.5 rush + rec yards 56%Big role in the offense; expected game flow helps.
- Omarion Hampton (RB) Over 32.5 rushing yards 56%Big role in the run game.
- Derrick Henry (RB) To score a touchdown 47%Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns.
- Zay Flowers (WR) To score a touchdown 25%Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns.
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Los Angeles (C) is 0-8 (L L L in last 3), 15.1 points for and 27.4 against per game.
- Baltimore is 4-5 (L L L in last 3), 21.0 points for and 26.2 against per game.
- Baltimore has the rest edge (11 days vs 8).
- Los Angeles (C) is missing 13 players (injured list or out).
- Out
- Los Angeles (C): I. World (OT), B. Taylor (G), I. Waxter (CB), K. Williamson (S), T. Lance (QB), D. Njoku (TE), R. Slater (OT), T. Pipkins III (OT), and 5 more · Baltimore: J. Hawkins (S), L. Jackson (QB), S. Thompson (QB), T. Huntley (QB), A. Randall (RB), D. Smythe (TE), J. Gwyn (G), D. Pinter (C), and 5 more
- Officials
- Referee Land Clark
Referee profile: Land Clark
Land ClarkReferee · 73 games · 2021-2025
Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.
| Measure | Clark | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flags per game | 11.7 | 11.7 | 9 of 17 |
| Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game | 0.63 | 0.70 | 12 of 17 |
| Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD | 0.73 | 0.72 | 7 of 17 |
| Defensive pass interference | 0.81 | 1.00 | 16 of 17 |
| Offensive holding | 2.22 | 2.28 | 11 of 17 |
| Defensive holding | 0.52 | 0.65 | 15 of 17 |
| Roughing the passer | 0.47 | 0.37 | 2 of 17 |
| Unnecessary roughness | 0.62 | 0.60 | 8 of 17 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 49.3% (36/73)Home covered 42.9% (30/70)Favorite covered 44.3% (31/70)Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.
Input quality (not a win chance)60
Player projections
Los Angeles (C)
- Justin Herbert QB225 pass yds · 0.8 pass TD
- Omarion Hampton RB40 rush yds
- Kimani Vidal RB24 rush yds
Baltimore
- Jacoby Brissett QB233 pass yds · 1 pass TD
- Derrick Henry RB81 rush yds
- Justice Hill RB25 rush yds
- Zay Flowers WR65 rec yds
- Rashod Bateman WR27 rec yds
- Mark Andrews TE25 rec yds