Pro Football Picks Sun Nov 15

SUNDAY NOV 15 upcoming games

9:30 AM ET 1 game

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

New England24

–

26Detroit

SPREAD

New England +2.5

53% chance to cover

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET

New England @ Detroit

43%

57%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKNew England +2.5 SPREAD

Our team ratings like New England more than the betting line does; neutral site, so no home field.

We make Detroit the more likely winner (57%), projecting about 24-26 (New England 24, Detroit 26).
Overall we rank New England 8th and Detroit 11th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Out: New England: B. Brown (C), H. Landry III (LB), C. Davis III (CB), M. Montgomery (RB), T. Henderson (RB), R. Doubs (WR), J. Hill (TE), A. Vera-Tucker (G), and 4 more · Detroit: G. Manu (OT), C. Mays (C), D. Reed (CB), K. Joseph (S), I. Pacheco (RB), K. Law (WR), T. Kennedy (WR), B. Bartch (G), and 7 more

Officials: Referee Clay Martin Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness less than most crews: 0.7x the league rate (32 in 81 games since 2021).

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Drake Maye (QB) Under 27.5 rushing yards 60%
Our projection is below the line.
Drake Maye (QB) Over 1.5 passing TDs 64%
Defense gives up passing scores; throws touchdowns at a high rate.
Jared Goff (QB) Under 0.5 interceptions 63%
Defense rarely forces turnovers; takes care of the ball.
Drake Maye (QB) Over 0.5 interceptions 61%
Turnover-prone.
Eli Raridon (TE) Over 25.5 receiving yards 55%
Big role in the passing game; efficient with his targets.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) To score a touchdown 60%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns; a high-scoring spot.
Jameson Williams (WR) To score a touchdown 38%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns; a high-scoring spot.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

New England is 5-4 (L W L in last 3), 23.4 points for and 23.0 against per game.
Detroit is 6-2 (W W W in last 3), 27.8 points for and 23.6 against per game.
Neutral site, so no home-field edge for either side.
Detroit is missing 15 players (injured list or out).

Out: New England: B. Brown (C), H. Landry III (LB), C. Davis III (CB), M. Montgomery (RB), T. Henderson (RB), R. Doubs (WR), J. Hill (TE), A. Vera-Tucker (G), and 4 more · Detroit: G. Manu (OT), C. Mays (C), D. Reed (CB), K. Joseph (S), I. Pacheco (RB), K. Law (WR), T. Kennedy (WR), B. Bartch (G), and 7 more
Officials: Referee Clay Martin
Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness less than most crews: 0.7x the league rate (32 in 81 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Clay Martin

Clay MartinReferee · 81 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: unnecessary roughness.

Calls unnecessary roughness less than most crews: 0.7x the league rate (32 in 81 games since 2021).

Measure	Martin	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.4	11.7	12 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.59	0.70	13 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.64	0.72	12 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.95	1.00	12 of 17
Offensive holding	2.72	2.28	2 of 17
Defensive holding	0.68	0.65	9 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.30	0.37	13 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.40	0.60	17 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.4% (40/81)Home covered 50.6% (41/81)Favorite covered 44.4% (36/81)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)71

Player projections

New England

Drake Maye QB251 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Corey Kiner RB41 rush yds
A.J. Brown WR56 rec yds
Hunter Henry TE42 rec yds
Eli Raridon TE32 rec yds

Detroit

Jared Goff QB256 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Jahmyr Gibbs RB95 rush yds
Sione Vaki RB17 rush yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR91 rec yds
Jameson Williams WR60 rec yds
Sam LaPorta TE41 rec yds

1:00 PM ET 7 games

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Jacksonville28

–

18Tennessee

SPREAD

Tennessee +10.5

52% chance to cover

TOP PICKSun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

84%

16%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKTennessee +10.5 SPREAD

Our team ratings like Tennessee more than the betting line does; home field for Tennessee; Tennessee is better rested.

We make Jacksonville the more likely winner (84%), projecting about 28-18 (Jacksonville 28, Tennessee 18).
Overall we rank Tennessee 26th and Jacksonville 1st of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Out: Jacksonville: C. Silmon-Craig (S), J. Bates III (S), A. Harrison (OT), G. DiGiorgio (OT), P. Mekari (G), S. Mustipher (C), B. Green II (DE), Z. Durfee (DE), and 5 more · Tennessee: C. Tate (WR), A. Hill Jr. (LB), C. Barton (LB), J. Kanak (TE), F. Carmona (G), J. Slater (G), P. Skoronski (G), T. Kpassagnon (DE), and 5 more

Officials: Referee Alex Moore Ref note: Throws more flags than most crews: 1.4x the league rate (240 in 15 games, one season only). Throws late flags in close games 2.2x the league rate (23 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 15 games, one season only).

RIVALRY Division rivalry

Game-time forecast: 54°F, sunny.

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Trevor Lawrence (QB) Under 246.5 passing yards 65%
Likely playing with a lead, fewer throws.
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR) Over 39.5 receiving yards 58%
Big role in the passing game; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Elic Ayomanor (WR) Over 26.5 receiving yards 58%
Big role in the passing game; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Trevor Lawrence (QB) Over 1.5 passing TDs 62%
A high-scoring spot; throws touchdowns at a high rate.
Cam Ward (QB) Over 197.5 passing yards 56%
Throws a lot; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) To score a touchdown 56%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns; a high-scoring spot.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB) To score a touchdown 43%
Defense gives up touchdowns; a high-scoring spot.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Jacksonville is 6-2 (L W W in last 3), 28.6 points for and 15.1 against per game.
Tennessee is 1-7 (W L L in last 3), 18.0 points for and 24.9 against per game.
Tennessee has the rest edge (14 days vs 10).
Jacksonville is missing 13 players (injured list or out).
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Out: Jacksonville: C. Silmon-Craig (S), J. Bates III (S), A. Harrison (OT), G. DiGiorgio (OT), P. Mekari (G), S. Mustipher (C), B. Green II (DE), Z. Durfee (DE), and 5 more · Tennessee: C. Tate (WR), A. Hill Jr. (LB), C. Barton (LB), J. Kanak (TE), F. Carmona (G), J. Slater (G), P. Skoronski (G), T. Kpassagnon (DE), and 5 more
Officials: Referee Alex Moore
Ref note: Throws more flags than most crews: 1.4x the league rate (240 in 15 games, one season only). Throws late flags in close games 2.2x the league rate (23 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 15 games, one season only).

Referee profile: Alex Moore

Alex MooreReferee · 15 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: flags overall, flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games (one season only).

Throws more flags than most crews: 1.4x the league rate (240 in 15 games, one season only).
Throws late flags in close games 2.2x the league rate (23 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 15 games, one season only).

Measure	Moore	League
Flags per game	16.0	11.7
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	1.53	0.70
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	1.60	0.72
Defensive pass interference	0.67	1.00
Offensive holding	3.33	2.28
Defensive holding	0.80	0.65
Roughing the passer	1.00	0.37
Unnecessary roughness	0.80	0.60

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 66.7% (10/15)Home covered 53.3% (8/15)Favorite covered 46.7% (7/15)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)74

Player projections

Jacksonville

Trevor Lawrence QB213 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Bhayshul Tuten RB67 rush yds
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB37 rush yds
Parker Washington WR54 rec yds
Jakobi Meyers WR43 rec yds
Brenton Strange TE35 rec yds

Tennessee

Cam Ward QB221 pass yds · 0.8 pass TD
Tony Pollard RB63 rush yds
Wan'Dale Robinson WR54 rec yds
Elic Ayomanor WR37 rec yds
Gunnar Helm TE32 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Houston23

–

19Cleveland

SPREAD

Cleveland +4.5

54% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Over 40.5

53% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Houston @ Cleveland

64%

36%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKCleveland +4.5 SPREAD

Our team ratings like Cleveland more than the betting line does; Houston has more key players out; home field for Cleveland.

We make Houston the more likely winner (64%), projecting about 22-19 (Houston 22, Cleveland 19).
Overall we rank Cleveland 19th and Houston 6th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Over 40.5

Officials: Referee Alan Eck Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness 1.5x the league rate (41 in 45 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding less than most crews: 0.6x the league rate (17 in 45 games since 2021).

Game-time forecast: 47°F, slight chance rain showers, wind up to 12 mph, 23% chance of rain.

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Deshaun Watson (QB) Under 1.5 passing TDs 79%
A quiet scoring spot; throws touchdowns at a low rate.
Jerry Jeudy (WR) Over 16.5 receiving yards 61%
Likely chasing the game, more throws.
Denzel Boston (WR) Over 44.5 receiving yards 57%
Big role in the passing game; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Dalton Schultz (TE) Over 28.5 receiving yards 58%
Big role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; soft matchup in coverage.
Quinshon Judkins (RB) Over 53.5 rush + rec yards 58%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out; expected game flow helps.
Nico Collins (WR) To score a touchdown 29%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out.
Quinshon Judkins (RB) To score a touchdown 27%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out; defense gives up touchdowns.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Houston is 3-5 (W L W in last 3), 26.1 points for and 24.0 against per game.
Cleveland is 5-4 (W L L in last 3), 17.9 points for and 21.8 against per game.
Houston is missing 18 players (injured list or out).

Total, model read: Over 40.5
Out: Houston: D. Montgomery (RB), M. Harrison Jr. (WR), B. Jordan (TE), K. Rutledge (G), D. Hunter (DE), A. Al-Shaair (LB), E. Speed (LB), G. Mertz (QB), and 10 more · Cleveland: J. Royer (TE), J. Owusu-Koramoah (LB), R. Hickman (S), R. Sanders (RB), T. Jenkins (G), M. Burton (FB), A. Wright (DE), E. Chatman (DT), and 3 more
Officials: Referee Alan Eck
Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness 1.5x the league rate (41 in 45 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding less than most crews: 0.6x the league rate (17 in 45 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Alan Eck

Alan EckReferee · 45 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: unnecessary roughness, defensive holding.

Calls unnecessary roughness 1.5x the league rate (41 in 45 games since 2021).
Calls defensive holding less than most crews: 0.6x the league rate (17 in 45 games since 2021).

Measure	Eck	League	Rank
Flags per game	10.8	11.7	15 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.56	0.70	14 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.51	0.72	17 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.80	1.00	17 of 17
Offensive holding	2.20	2.28	12 of 17
Defensive holding	0.38	0.65	17 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.42	0.37	5 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.91	0.60	1 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.4% (20/45)Home covered 53.3% (24/45)Favorite covered 64.4% (29/45)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)73

Player projections

Houston

C.J. Stroud QB228 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Woody Marks RB61 rush yds
Nico Collins WR54 rec yds
Tank Dell WR49 rec yds
Dalton Schultz TE43 rec yds

Cleveland

Deshaun Watson QB236 pass yds · 0.9 pass TD
Quinshon Judkins RB54 rush yds
Dylan Sampson RB20 rush yds
Denzel Boston WR59 rec yds
KC Concepcion WR55 rec yds
Harold Fannin Jr. TE52 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Miami17

–

21Indianapolis

SPREAD

Miami +4.5

52% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Over 37.5

52% chance to hit

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Miami @ Indianapolis

34%

66%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKMiami +4.5 SPREAD

Our team ratings like Miami more than the betting line does; note: Miami's own starting QB is out.

We make Indianapolis the more likely winner (66%), projecting about 17-21 (Miami 17, Indianapolis 21).
Overall we rank Miami 23rd and Indianapolis 30th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Over 37.5

Officials: Referee Carl Cheffers Ref note: Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (33 in 75 games since 2021).

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Anthony Gould (WR) Under 16.5 receiving yards 83%
Likely playing with a lead, fewer throws.
Daniel Jones (QB) Under 1.5 passing TDs 72%
A quiet scoring spot; throws touchdowns at a low rate.
Deion Burks (WR) Under 17.5 receiving yards 66%
Small role in the passing game; likely playing with a lead, fewer throws; has been inefficient with his targets.
Malik Washington (WR) Over 32.5 receiving yards 60%
Big role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; soft matchup in coverage.
Caleb Douglas (WR) Over 40.5 receiving yards 61%
Big role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; soft matchup in coverage.
Jonathan Taylor (RB) To score a touchdown 40%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns.
Tyler Warren (TE) To score a touchdown 28%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Miami is 1-7 (W L L in last 3), 15.8 points for and 25.0 against per game.
Indianapolis is 2-7 (L L L in last 3), 20.4 points for and 27.7 against per game.
Miami's starting QB is out.
Indianapolis is missing 13 players (injured list or out).

Total, model read: Over 37.5
Out: Miami: J. Wayne (WR), A. Brewer (C), D. Baker Jr. (CB), M. Willis (QB), D. Achane (RB), C. Turner (TE), R. Konga (DT), Z. Sieler (DT), and 2 more · Indianapolis: W. Mallory (TE), J. Travis (OT), J. Tillery (DT), J. Carlies (LB), L. Rhodes (LS), A. Pierce (WR), D. Montgomery (WR), C. Towt (TE), and 5 more
Officials: Referee Carl Cheffers
Ref note: Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (33 in 75 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Carl Cheffers

Carl CheffersReferee · 75 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: offensive pass interference.

Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (33 in 75 games since 2021).

Measure	Cheffers	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.2	11.7	5 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.85	0.70	3 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.89	0.72	2 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.16	1.00	2 of 17
Offensive holding	2.37	2.28	7 of 17
Defensive holding	0.71	0.65	7 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.32	0.37	12 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.64	0.60	7 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.7% (38/75)Home covered 53.3% (40/75)Favorite covered 44.0% (33/75)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)68

Player projections

Miami

Ollie Gordon II RB64 rush yds
Jaylen Wright RB29 rush yds
Caleb Douglas WR62 rec yds
Malik Washington WR46 rec yds
Greg Dulcich TE45 rec yds

Indianapolis

Daniel Jones QB204 pass yds · 1 pass TD
Jonathan Taylor RB72 rush yds
Seth McGowan RB26 rush yds
Tyler Warren TE46 rec yds
Laquon Treadwell WR25 rec yds
Ashton Dulin WR16 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Carolina22

–

25New Orleans

SPREAD

New Orleans -2.5

52% chance to cover

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Carolina @ New Orleans

38%

62%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKNew Orleans -2.5 SPREAD

Our team ratings like New Orleans more than the betting line does; home field for New Orleans.

We make New Orleans the more likely winner (62%), projecting about 22-25 (Carolina 22, New Orleans 25).
Overall we rank New Orleans 22nd and Carolina 24th of 32.

Out: Carolina: I. Ekwonu (OT), B. Okereke (LB), J. Brooks (RB), C. Brazzell II (WR), T. Moton (OT), B. Christensen (G), C. Jackson (DT), N. Scourton (LB), and 4 more · New Orleans: C. Donaldson (RB), M. Tipton (WR), N. Saldiveri (OT), T. Fuaga (OT), E. McCoy (C), T. Chandler (RB), M. Matavao (TE), D. Radunz (G), and 3 more

Officials: Referee Shawn Smith

RIVALRY Division rivalry

One of the loudest stadiums in pro football

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Tommy Tremble (TE) Over 15.5 receiving yards 61%
Big role in the passing game.
Devaughn Vele (WR) Over 29.5 receiving yards 60%
Big role in the passing game.
Darren Waller (TE) Over 27.5 receiving yards 57%
Big role in the passing game; efficient with his targets.
Juwan Johnson (TE) Over 24.5 receiving yards 57%
Big role in the passing game.
Chuba Hubbard (RB) Over 17.5 receiving yards 56%
Big role in the passing game.
Chuba Hubbard (RB) To score a touchdown 39%
Big role in the offense.
Darren Waller (TE) To score a touchdown 30%
Big role in the offense.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Carolina is 3-5 (L L L in last 3), 24.9 points for and 27.4 against per game.
New Orleans is 3-5 (W L W in last 3), 23.1 points for and 27.0 against per game.
Carolina is missing 12 players (injured list or out).
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Out: Carolina: I. Ekwonu (OT), B. Okereke (LB), J. Brooks (RB), C. Brazzell II (WR), T. Moton (OT), B. Christensen (G), C. Jackson (DT), N. Scourton (LB), and 4 more · New Orleans: C. Donaldson (RB), M. Tipton (WR), N. Saldiveri (OT), T. Fuaga (OT), E. McCoy (C), T. Chandler (RB), M. Matavao (TE), D. Radunz (G), and 3 more
Officials: Referee Shawn Smith

Referee profile: Shawn Smith

Shawn SmithReferee · 75 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Smith	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.5	11.7	11 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.71	0.70	8 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.81	0.72	4 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.16	1.00	2 of 17
Offensive holding	1.89	2.28	14 of 17
Defensive holding	0.56	0.65	12 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.25	0.37	15 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.81	0.60	2 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.0% (36/75)Home covered 54.1% (40/74)Favorite covered 48.6% (36/74)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)68

Player projections

Carolina

Bryce Young QB272 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Chuba Hubbard RB67 rush yds
Tetairoa McMillan WR76 rec yds
Jalen Coker WR53 rec yds
Darren Waller TE39 rec yds

New Orleans

Tyler Shough QB231 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Audric Estime RB54 rush yds
Travis Etienne RB53 rush yds
Chris Olave WR80 rec yds
Devaughn Vele WR42 rec yds
Jordyn Tyson WR36 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Kansas City25

–

22Atlanta

SPREAD

Kansas City -3

51% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 47.5

51% chance to hit

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Kansas City @ Atlanta

63%

37%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKUnder 47.5 TOTAL · MODEL READ

Our scoring read for this matchup is below the betting total.

We make Kansas City the more likely winner (63%), projecting about 25-22 (Kansas City 25, Atlanta 22).
Kansas City is 6-2 (L L W in last 3), 25.2 points for and 17.9 against per game.

Out: Kansas City: K. Walker III (RB), J. Moore (OT), O. Norman-Lott (DT), P. Woods (DT), B. Smith (RB), J. Caldwell (WR), J. Holiday (WR), T. Thornton (WR), and 5 more · Atlanta: Z. Branch (WR), S. Norton (OT), A. Thompson (DT), D. Malone (LB), D. Deablo (LB), B. Robinson Jr. (RB), T. Sermon (RB), M. Jerrell (OT), and 4 more

Officials: Referee Shawn Hochuli Ref note: Calls roughing the passer 1.6x the league rate (49 in 82 games since 2021). Throws late flags in close games 1.4x the league rate (81 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 82 games since 2021).

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Xavier Worthy (WR) Over 27.5 receiving yards 59%
Big role in the passing game.
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) Under 1.5 passing TDs 67%
Defense rarely gives up passing scores.
Patrick Mahomes (QB) Under 0.5 interceptions 61%
Defense rarely forces turnovers; likely playing with a lead, fewer throws; takes care of the ball.
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) Under 214.5 passing yards 57%
Tough pass defense.
Kyle Pitts (TE) Under 39.5 receiving yards 55%
Has been inefficient with his targets.
Kenneth Walker III (RB) To score a touchdown 59%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns; a high-scoring spot.
Bijan Robinson (RB) To score a touchdown 36%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Atlanta is 3-6 (W L L in last 3), 20.9 points for and 24.8 against per game.
Kansas City is missing 13 players (injured list or out).

Out: Kansas City: K. Walker III (RB), J. Moore (OT), O. Norman-Lott (DT), P. Woods (DT), B. Smith (RB), J. Caldwell (WR), J. Holiday (WR), T. Thornton (WR), and 5 more · Atlanta: Z. Branch (WR), S. Norton (OT), A. Thompson (DT), D. Malone (LB), D. Deablo (LB), B. Robinson Jr. (RB), T. Sermon (RB), M. Jerrell (OT), and 4 more
Officials: Referee Shawn Hochuli
Ref note: Calls roughing the passer 1.6x the league rate (49 in 82 games since 2021). Throws late flags in close games 1.4x the league rate (81 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 82 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Shawn Hochuli

Shawn HochuliReferee · 82 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: roughing the passer, flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games.

Calls roughing the passer 1.6x the league rate (49 in 82 games since 2021).
Throws late flags in close games 1.4x the league rate (81 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 82 games since 2021).

Measure	Hochuli	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.5	11.7	1 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.99	0.70	2 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.74	0.72	5 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.06	1.00	6 of 17
Offensive holding	2.51	2.28	5 of 17
Defensive holding	0.68	0.65	8 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.60	0.37	1 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.67	0.60	6 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 42.7% (35/82)Home covered 45.7% (37/81)Favorite covered 40.0% (32/80)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)66

Player projections

Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes QB238 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Emmett Johnson RB15 rush yds
Rashee Rice WR59 rec yds
Travis Kelce TE52 rec yds
Xavier Worthy WR40 rec yds

Atlanta

Michael Penix Jr. QB200 pass yds · 1 pass TD
Bijan Robinson RB82 rush yds
Khalil Herbert RB21 rush yds
Drake London WR65 rec yds
Kyle Pitts TE34 rec yds
Jahan Dotson WR34 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Minnesota19

–

23Green Bay

SPREAD

Green Bay -2.5

56% chance to cover

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Minnesota @ Green Bay

35%

65%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKNo pick

Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.

We make Green Bay the more likely winner (65%), projecting about 19-23 (Minnesota 19, Green Bay 23).
Minnesota is 6-2 (W L L in last 3), 18.2 points for and 14.5 against per game.

Out: Minnesota: K. Murray (QB), J. Jennings (WR), T. Hockenson (TE), T. Ingram-Dawkins (DE), B. Cashman (LB), D. Claiborne (RB), J. Oliver (TE), D. Jackson (G), and 3 more · Green Bay: J. Jacobs (RB), L. Musgrave (TE), S. Rhyan (G), M. Parsons (DE), J. Reed (WR), J. Whyle (TE), T. Yassmin (TE), Z. Bako-Bewele (OT), and 7 more

Officials: Referee John Hussey Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (13 in 75 games since 2021).

RIVALRY Division rivalry

Game-time forecast: 43°F, mostly sunny.

Loud stadium for visiting teams

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Aaron Jones (RB) Over 27.5 rushing yards 61%
Big role in the run game.
Aaron Jones (RB) Over 40.5 rush + rec yards 61%
Big role in the offense.
Justin Jefferson (WR) Under 82.5 receiving yards 63%
Tough matchup in coverage; has been inefficient with his targets.
Kirk Cousins (QB) Over 0.5 interceptions 67%
Throws a lot; ball-hawking defense; turnover-prone.
Kirk Cousins (QB) Over 231.5 passing yards 54%
Throws a lot.
Christian Watson (WR) To score a touchdown 32%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out.
Matthew Golden (WR) To score a touchdown 29%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Green Bay is 6-3 (L W W in last 3), 24.0 points for and 21.2 against per game.
Green Bay is missing 15 players (injured list or out).
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Out: Minnesota: K. Murray (QB), J. Jennings (WR), T. Hockenson (TE), T. Ingram-Dawkins (DE), B. Cashman (LB), D. Claiborne (RB), J. Oliver (TE), D. Jackson (G), and 3 more · Green Bay: J. Jacobs (RB), L. Musgrave (TE), S. Rhyan (G), M. Parsons (DE), J. Reed (WR), J. Whyle (TE), T. Yassmin (TE), Z. Bako-Bewele (OT), and 7 more
Officials: Referee John Hussey
Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (13 in 75 games since 2021).

Referee profile: John Hussey

John HusseyReferee · 75 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: roughing the passer.

Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (13 in 75 games since 2021).

Measure	Hussey	League	Rank
Flags per game	10.6	11.7	17 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.64	0.70	10 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.60	0.72	15 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.04	1.00	7 of 17
Offensive holding	1.79	2.28	16 of 17
Defensive holding	0.53	0.65	14 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.17	0.37	17 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.68	0.60	5 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.7% (38/75)Home covered 64.0% (48/75)Favorite covered 57.3% (43/75)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Player projections

Minnesota

Kirk Cousins QB246 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Aaron Jones RB50 rush yds
Jordan Mason RB40 rush yds
Justin Jefferson WR65 rec yds
Jordan Addison WR45 rec yds
Gavin Bartholomew TE39 rec yds

Green Bay

Jordan Love QB257 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Kaleb Johnson RB32 rush yds
Pierre Strong RB25 rush yds
Christian Watson WR84 rec yds
Matthew Golden WR80 rec yds
Tucker Kraft TE40 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Buffalo29

–

22New York (J)

SPREAD

New York (J) +7.5

51% chance to cover

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo @ New York (J)

77%

23%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKNo pick

Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.

We make Buffalo the more likely winner (77%), projecting about 29-22 (Buffalo 29, New York (J) 22).
Buffalo is 7-1 (W W W in last 3), 32.0 points for and 23.4 against per game.

Out: Buffalo: T. Shavers (WR), D. Strong (CB), J. Palmer (WR), Z. Durant (DT) · New York (J): T. Baron (DE), T. Wallace (LB), C. Trayanum (RB), A. Smith (WR), M. Mitchell (OT), A. Cooper (G), B. McGregor (DE), K. Jonathan (DE), and 4 more

Officials: Referee Ronald Torbert

RIVALRY Division rivalry

Game-time forecast: 51°F, sunny, wind up to 14 mph.

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Braelon Allen (RB) Over 45.5 rush + rec yards 60%
Big role in the offense; expected game flow helps; efficient with his touches.
Braelon Allen (RB) Over 33.5 rushing yards 60%
Big role in the run game; efficient with his carries.
Ty Johnson (RB) Over 15.5 receiving yards 58%
Soft matchup in coverage; efficient with his targets.
Geno Smith (QB) Under 1.5 passing TDs 60%
Our projection is below the line.
Josh Allen (QB) Under 234.5 passing yards 58%
Likely playing with a lead, fewer throws.
James Cook (RB) To score a touchdown 62%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns; a high-scoring spot.
Josh Allen (QB) To score a touchdown 54%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns; a high-scoring spot.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

New York (J) is 2-7 (L L L in last 3), 20.2 points for and 24.8 against per game.
New York (J) is missing 12 players (injured list or out).
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Out: Buffalo: T. Shavers (WR), D. Strong (CB), J. Palmer (WR), Z. Durant (DT) · New York (J): T. Baron (DE), T. Wallace (LB), C. Trayanum (RB), A. Smith (WR), M. Mitchell (OT), A. Cooper (G), B. McGregor (DE), K. Jonathan (DE), and 4 more
Officials: Referee Ronald Torbert

Referee profile: Ronald Torbert

Ronald TorbertReferee · 84 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Torbert	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.9	11.7	8 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.65	0.70	9 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.63	0.72	13 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.92	1.00	14 of 17
Offensive holding	2.55	2.28	4 of 17
Defensive holding	0.55	0.65	13 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.37	0.37	9 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.70	0.60	4 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.0% (37/84)Home covered 47.6% (40/84)Favorite covered 51.2% (43/84)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Player projections

Buffalo

Josh Allen QB217 pass yds · 2 pass TD
James Cook RB105 rush yds
Khalil Shakir WR45 rec yds
Dalton Kincaid TE41 rec yds
DJ Moore WR40 rec yds

New York (J)

Geno Smith QB229 pass yds · 1 pass TD
Braelon Allen RB58 rush yds
Breece Hall RB54 rush yds
Omar Cooper Jr. WR67 rec yds
Garrett Wilson WR64 rec yds
Adonai Mitchell WR50 rec yds

4:05 PM ET 3 games

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Los Angeles (R)25

–

16Arizona

SPREAD

Arizona +9.5

52% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Over 39.5

52% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET

Los Angeles (R) @ Arizona

81%

19%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKArizona +9.5 SPREAD

Our team ratings like Arizona more than the betting line does; home field for Arizona; note: Arizona's own starting QB is out.

We make Los Angeles (R) the more likely winner (81%), projecting about 25-16 (Los Angeles (R) 25, Arizona 16).
Overall we rank Arizona 27th and Los Angeles (R) 12th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Over 39.5

Officials: Referee Adrian Hill

RIVALRY Division rivalry

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Trey McBride (TE) Over 60.5 receiving yards 65%
Big role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Kyren Williams (RB) Over 21.5 receiving yards 57%
Big role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; soft matchup in coverage.
Elijah Higgins (TE) Over 20.5 receiving yards 56%
Big role in the passing game; bigger role with a teammate out; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Matthew Stafford (QB) Over 1.5 passing TDs 62%
Throws a lot; defense gives up passing scores; a high-scoring spot.
Matthew Stafford (QB) Over 213.5 passing yards 56%
Throws a lot; soft pass defense.
Kyren Williams (RB) To score a touchdown 49%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out; defense gives up touchdowns.
Blake Corum (RB) To score a touchdown 43%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out; defense gives up touchdowns.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Los Angeles (R) is 5-4 (W W W in last 3), 23.8 points for and 20.1 against per game.
Arizona is 3-6 (L W L in last 3), 19.8 points for and 28.3 against per game.
Arizona's starting QB is out.
Arizona is missing 16 players (injured list or out).
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Total, model read: Over 39.5
Out: Los Angeles (R): S. Avila (G), M. Caldwell (QB), D. Connors (RB), D. Adams (WR), J. Whittington (WR), P. Nacua (WR), T. Ferguson (TE), J. Dedich (G), and 6 more · Arizona: T. Reiman (TE), J. Gaines II (G), H. Froholdt (C), G. Minshew II (QB), J. Conner (RB), J. Love (RB), T. Benson (RB), J. Brooks (WR), and 8 more
Officials: Referee Adrian Hill

Referee profile: Adrian Hill

Adrian HillReferee · 76 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hill	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.5	11.7	2 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.84	0.70	4 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.96	0.72	1 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.18	1.00	1 of 17
Offensive holding	2.75	2.28	1 of 17
Defensive holding	0.76	0.65	3 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.43	0.37	4 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.58	0.60	12 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.6% (40/76)Home covered 50.0% (38/76)Favorite covered 50.0% (38/76)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)73

Player projections

Los Angeles (R)

Matthew Stafford QB239 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Kyren Williams RB72 rush yds
Blake Corum RB55 rush yds
Tutu Atwell WR59 rec yds
Tyler Higbee TE39 rec yds
Colby Parkinson TE29 rec yds

Arizona

Tyler Allgeier RB43 rush yds
Bam Knight RB29 rush yds
Trey McBride TE101 rec yds
Reggie Virgil WR63 rec yds
Elijah Higgins TE28 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Seattle23

–

18Las Vegas

SPREAD

Las Vegas +6.5

57% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Over 40.5

53% chance to hit

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET

Seattle @ Las Vegas

69%

31%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKOver 40.5 TOTAL · MODEL READ

Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.

We make Seattle the more likely winner (69%), projecting about 23-18 (Seattle 23, Las Vegas 18).
Seattle is 5-4 (W L W in last 3), 22.4 points for and 18.0 against per game.

Out: Seattle: S. Darnold (QB), C. Cross (OT), Q. Nelson (G), L. Williams (DT), T. Arnold (CB), J. Bobo (WR), E. Arroyo (TE), M. Richman (G), and 3 more · Las Vegas: J. Pickett (G), K. Crawford (DE), P. Johnson (DE), B. Jackson (LB), C. Anusiem (CB)

Officials: Referee Brad Allen

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Tre Tucker (WR) Over 28.5 receiving yards 61%
Big role in the passing game; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Brock Bowers (TE) Over 59.5 receiving yards 61%
Big role in the passing game; likely chasing the game, more throws; efficient with his targets.
Cooper Kupp (WR) Over 20.5 receiving yards 58%
Soft matchup in coverage.
Rashid Shaheed (WR) Over 17.5 receiving yards 58%
Soft matchup in coverage.
Ashton Jeanty (RB) Over 25.5 receiving yards 58%
Big role in the passing game; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) To score a touchdown 46%
Big role in the offense; defense gives up touchdowns.
Brock Bowers (TE) To score a touchdown 33%
Big role in the offense.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Las Vegas is 4-5 (L W L in last 3), 26.4 points for and 29.8 against per game.
Seattle is missing 11 players (injured list or out).

Out: Seattle: S. Darnold (QB), C. Cross (OT), Q. Nelson (G), L. Williams (DT), T. Arnold (CB), J. Bobo (WR), E. Arroyo (TE), M. Richman (G), and 3 more · Las Vegas: J. Pickett (G), K. Crawford (DE), P. Johnson (DE), B. Jackson (LB), C. Anusiem (CB)
Officials: Referee Brad Allen

Referee profile: Brad Allen

Brad AllenReferee · 78 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Allen	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.1	11.7	14 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.74	0.70	5 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.73	0.72	6 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.94	1.00	13 of 17
Offensive holding	1.87	2.28	15 of 17
Defensive holding	0.72	0.65	6 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.40	0.37	8 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.44	0.60	16 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 46.2% (36/78)Home covered 50.0% (39/78)Favorite covered 50.0% (39/78)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)68

Player projections

Seattle

Drew Lock QB217 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Zach Charbonnet RB59 rush yds
Jadarian Price RB42 rush yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR101 rec yds
Rashid Shaheed WR28 rec yds
Cooper Kupp WR28 rec yds

Las Vegas

Fernando Mendoza QB226 pass yds · 0.9 pass TD
Ashton Jeanty RB33 rush yds
Mike Washington Jr. RB27 rush yds
Brock Bowers TE82 rec yds
Tre Tucker WR51 rec yds
Michael Mayer TE41 rec yds

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

San Francisco29

–

26Dallas

SPREAD

Dallas +4.5

56% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 55.5

52% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET

San Francisco @ Dallas

62%

38%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKDallas +4.5 SPREAD

Our team ratings like Dallas more than the betting line does; San Francisco has more key players out; home field for Dallas.

We make San Francisco the more likely winner (62%), projecting about 29-26 (San Francisco 29, Dallas 26).
Overall we rank Dallas 10th and San Francisco 2nd of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Under 55.5

Officials: Referee Bill Vinovich Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (14 in 77 games since 2021).

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Brock Purdy (QB) Under 261.5 passing yards 67%
Likely playing with a lead, fewer throws.
Brock Purdy (QB) Over 19.5 rushing yards 59%
Big role in the run game; soft run defense; likely running it out with a lead.
Ryan Flournoy (WR) Over 35.5 receiving yards 58%
Big role in the passing game; likely chasing the game, more throws; efficient with his targets.
Javonte Williams (RB) Over 60.5 rushing yards 57%
Big role in the run game; bigger role with a teammate out.
Kaelon Black (RB) Over 33.5 rushing yards 58%
Big role in the run game; soft run defense; likely running it out with a lead.
Christian McCaffrey (RB) To score a touchdown 66%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out; defense gives up touchdowns.
Javonte Williams (RB) To score a touchdown 55%
Big role in the offense; bigger role with a teammate out; a high-scoring spot.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

San Francisco is 7-1 (W L W in last 3), 29.4 points for and 19.5 against per game.
Dallas is 4-5 (W L W in last 3), 27.3 points for and 26.2 against per game.
San Francisco is missing 18 players (injured list or out).

Total, model read: Under 55.5
Out: San Francisco: I. Guerendo (RB), B. Aiyuk (WR), M. Evans (WR), C. Kirk (WR), D. Stribling (WR), R. Pearsall (WR), J. Tonges (TE), A. Pleasants (OT), and 10 more · Dallas: J. Mingo (WR), J. Ferguson (TE), D. Ezeiruaku (LB), P. Locke (S), M. Davis (RB), T. Goodson (RB), P. Fant (TE), M. Hennessy (C), and 4 more
Officials: Referee Bill Vinovich
Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (14 in 77 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Bill Vinovich

Bill VinovichReferee · 77 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: roughing the passer.

Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (14 in 77 games since 2021).

Measure	Vinovich	League	Rank
Flags per game	10.6	11.7	16 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.49	0.70	17 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.62	0.72	14 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.00	1.00	9 of 17
Offensive holding	1.77	2.28	17 of 17
Defensive holding	0.48	0.65	16 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.18	0.37	16 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.51	0.60	14 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.1% (37/77)Home covered 41.6% (32/77)Favorite covered 37.7% (29/77)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)73

Player projections

San Francisco

Brock Purdy QB222 pass yds
Christian McCaffrey RB70 rush yds
Kaelon Black RB46 rush yds
George Kittle TE59 rec yds
Keenan Allen WR52 rec yds
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR47 rec yds

Dallas

Dak Prescott QB265 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Javonte Williams RB79 rush yds
CeeDee Lamb WR106 rec yds
George Pickens WR72 rec yds
Ryan Flournoy WR47 rec yds

8:20 PM ET 1 game

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Pittsburgh23

–

26Cincinnati

SPREAD

Pittsburgh +3.5

51% chance to cover

TOMORROWSun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

37%

63%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKNo pick

Our numbers and the betting line agree on this one, so there is no side to take.

We make Cincinnati the more likely winner (63%), projecting about 23-26 (Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 26).
Pittsburgh is 6-2 (W W W in last 3), 22.5 points for and 18.0 against per game.

Out: Pittsburgh: D. Kent (CB), C. Burgess (WR), M. Pittman Jr. (WR), R. Wilson (WR), J. Driscoll (OT), G. Dunker (G), L. Lee (DT), S. Joseph-Day (DT), and 1 more · Cincinnati: K. Dugger (S), A. Iosivas (WR), E. All Jr. (TE), T. Hudson (TE), B. Parker II (OT), C. Howell (DE), S. Bozeman (LB), J. Taylor (CB), and 1 more

Officials: Referee Clete Blakeman Ref note: Calls illegal contact 1.7x the league rate (31 in 77 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding 1.3x the league rate (66 in 77 games since 2021).

RIVALRY Division rivalry

Game-time forecast: 41°F, mostly cloudy.

Top props (7)

TOP PROPS

Rico Dowdle (RB) Over 30.5 rushing yards 60%
Big role in the run game; soft run defense.
Jaylen Warren (RB) Over 64.5 rushing yards 58%
Big role in the run game; soft run defense; efficient with his carries.
Pat Freiermuth (TE) Over 26.5 receiving yards 58%
Big role in the passing game; soft matchup in coverage; likely chasing the game, more throws.
Jaylen Warren (RB) Over 93.5 rush + rec yards 57%
Big role in the offense; soft matchup; expected game flow helps.
Rico Dowdle (RB) Over 48.5 rush + rec yards 58%
Big role in the offense; soft matchup; expected game flow helps.
Tee Higgins (WR) To score a touchdown 43%
Big role in the offense; a high-scoring spot.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR) To score a touchdown 42%
Big role in the offense; a high-scoring spot.

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Cincinnati is 6-2 (W W W in last 3), 30.0 points for and 21.9 against per game.
Pittsburgh has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
Pittsburgh is missing 9 players (injured list or out).
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Out: Pittsburgh: D. Kent (CB), C. Burgess (WR), M. Pittman Jr. (WR), R. Wilson (WR), J. Driscoll (OT), G. Dunker (G), L. Lee (DT), S. Joseph-Day (DT), and 1 more · Cincinnati: K. Dugger (S), A. Iosivas (WR), E. All Jr. (TE), T. Hudson (TE), B. Parker II (OT), C. Howell (DE), S. Bozeman (LB), J. Taylor (CB), and 1 more
Officials: Referee Clete Blakeman
Ref note: Calls illegal contact 1.7x the league rate (31 in 77 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding 1.3x the league rate (66 in 77 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Clete Blakeman

Clete BlakemanReferee · 77 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: illegal contact, defensive holding.

Calls illegal contact 1.7x the league rate (31 in 77 games since 2021).
Calls defensive holding 1.3x the league rate (66 in 77 games since 2021).

Measure	Blakeman	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.4	11.7	3 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.64	0.70	11 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.70	0.72	9 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.04	1.00	8 of 17
Offensive holding	2.31	2.28	8 of 17
Defensive holding	0.86	0.65	1 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.34	0.37	11 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.77	0.60	3 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (37/74)Home covered 56.0% (42/75)Favorite covered 52.0% (39/75)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Player projections

Pittsburgh

Aaron Rodgers QB246 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Jaylen Warren RB84 rush yds
Rico Dowdle RB46 rush yds
DK Metcalf WR59 rec yds
Germie Bernard WR50 rec yds
Darnell Washington TE36 rec yds

Cincinnati

Joe Burrow QB271 pass yds · 2 pass TD
Chase Brown RB51 rush yds
Samaje Perine RB25 rush yds
Ja'Marr Chase WR82 rec yds
Tee Higgins WR75 rec yds
Mike Gesicki TE30 rec yds