Pro Football Picks Sun Nov 8

SUNDAY NOV 8 graded picks

Went 3-7 on the day

9:30 AM ET 1 game

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Cincinnati28

–

24Atlanta

SPREAD

Cincinnati -3

55% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 52.5

54% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET

Cincinnati @ Atlanta

67%

33%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKCincinnati -3 SPREADWIN

Our team ratings like Cincinnati more than the betting line does; neutral site, so no home field.

FINAL

Cincinnati 34 · Atlanta 17

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

We make Cincinnati the more likely winner (67%), projecting about 28-24 (Cincinnati 28, Atlanta 24).
Overall we rank Cincinnati 3rd and Atlanta 23rd of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Under 49.5

Officials: Referee Craig Wrolstad

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Cincinnati is 6-2 (W W W in last 3), 30.0 points for and 21.9 against per game.
Atlanta is 3-6 (W L L in last 3), 20.9 points for and 24.8 against per game.
Neutral site, so no home-field edge for either side.

Total, model read: Under 49.5
Out: Cincinnati: K. Dugger (S), A. Iosivas (WR), E. All Jr. (TE), T. Hudson (TE), B. Parker II (OT), C. Howell (DE), S. Bozeman (LB), J. Taylor (CB), and 1 more · Atlanta: Z. Branch (WR), S. Norton (OT), A. Thompson (DT), D. Malone (LB), B. Robinson Jr. (RB), T. Sermon (RB), M. Jerrell (OT), C. Williams (OL), and 4 more
Officials: Referee Craig Wrolstad

Referee profile: Craig Wrolstad

Craig WrolstadReferee · 81 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Wrolstad	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.3	11.7	13 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.56	0.70	14 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.72	0.72	8 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.99	1.00	10 of 17
Offensive holding	2.26	2.28	10 of 17
Defensive holding	0.60	0.65	11 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.36	0.37	10 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.53	0.60	13 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (40/80)Home covered 50.6% (41/81)Favorite covered 49.4% (40/81)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)67

1:00 PM ET 7 games

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Los Angeles (R)26

–

22Washington

SPREAD

Washington +5.5

56% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 47.5

51% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET

Los Angeles (R) @ Washington

66%

34%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKWashington +5.5 SPREADLOSS

Our team ratings like Washington more than the betting line does; home field for Washington.

FINAL

Los Angeles (R) 20 · Washington 13

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

We make Los Angeles (R) the more likely winner (66%), projecting about 26-22 (Los Angeles (R) 26, Washington 22).
Overall we rank Washington 15th and Los Angeles (R) 10th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Under 47.5

Officials: Referee John Hussey Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (13 in 75 games since 2021).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Los Angeles (R) is 5-4 (W W W in last 3), 23.8 points for and 20.1 against per game.
Washington is 2-5-1 (L W L in last 3), 21.5 points for and 25.2 against per game.

Total, model read: Under 47.5
Out: Los Angeles (R): T. Simpson (QB), K. Trost (OT), B. Murray (G), D. Johnson (DE), D. Peterson III (LB), T. McDuffie (CB), J. Cardona (LS), M. Caldwell (QB), and 10 more · Washington: A. Kaliakmanis (QB), T. Burks (WR), T. Togiai (G), F. Moreau (CB), I. Yiadom (CB), J. Croskey-Merritt (RB), J. McNichols (RB), D. Brown (WR), and 7 more
Officials: Referee John Hussey
Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (13 in 75 games since 2021).

Referee profile: John Hussey

John HusseyReferee · 75 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: roughing the passer.

Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (13 in 75 games since 2021).

Measure	Hussey	League	Rank
Flags per game	10.6	11.7	17 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.64	0.70	10 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.60	0.72	15 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.04	1.00	7 of 17
Offensive holding	1.79	2.28	16 of 17
Defensive holding	0.53	0.65	14 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.17	0.37	17 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.68	0.60	5 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.7% (38/75)Home covered 64.0% (48/75)Favorite covered 57.3% (43/75)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)75

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Dallas27

–

23Indianapolis

SPREAD

Dallas -4.5

51% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 51.5

54% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET

Dallas @ Indianapolis

68%

32%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKDallas -4.5 SPREADLOSS

Our team ratings like Dallas more than the betting line does; Indianapolis has more key players out.

FINAL

Dallas 27 · Indianapolis 23

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total

We make Dallas the more likely winner (68%), projecting about 27-23 (Dallas 27, Indianapolis 23).
Overall we rank Dallas 9th and Indianapolis 26th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Officials: Referee Clay Martin Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness less than most crews: 0.7x the league rate (32 in 81 games since 2021).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Dallas is 4-5 (W L W in last 3), 27.3 points for and 26.2 against per game.
Indianapolis is 2-7 (L L L in last 3), 20.4 points for and 27.7 against per game.

Officials: Referee Clay Martin
Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness less than most crews: 0.7x the league rate (32 in 81 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Clay Martin

Clay MartinReferee · 81 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: unnecessary roughness.

Calls unnecessary roughness less than most crews: 0.7x the league rate (32 in 81 games since 2021).

Measure	Martin	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.4	11.7	12 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.59	0.70	13 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.64	0.72	12 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.95	1.00	12 of 17
Offensive holding	2.72	2.28	2 of 17
Defensive holding	0.68	0.65	9 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.30	0.37	13 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.40	0.60	17 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.4% (40/81)Home covered 50.6% (41/81)Favorite covered 44.4% (36/81)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)74

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Denver24

–

21Carolina

SPREAD

Carolina +3

50% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 44.5

51% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET

Denver @ Carolina

62%

38%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKCarolina +3 SPREADLOSS

Our team ratings like Carolina more than the betting line does; home field for Carolina; Carolina is better rested.

FINAL

Denver 26 · Carolina 21

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

We make Denver the more likely winner (62%), projecting about 24-21 (Denver 24, Carolina 21).
Overall we rank Carolina 22nd and Denver 12th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Officials: Referee Alan Eck Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness 1.5x the league rate (41 in 45 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding less than most crews: 0.6x the league rate (17 in 45 games since 2021).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Denver is 7-2 (W W W in last 3), 22.0 points for and 20.7 against per game.
Carolina is 3-5 (L L L in last 3), 24.9 points for and 27.4 against per game.
Carolina has the rest edge (10 days vs 7).

Officials: Referee Alan Eck
Ref note: Calls unnecessary roughness 1.5x the league rate (41 in 45 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding less than most crews: 0.6x the league rate (17 in 45 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Alan Eck

Alan EckReferee · 45 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: unnecessary roughness, defensive holding.

Calls unnecessary roughness 1.5x the league rate (41 in 45 games since 2021).
Calls defensive holding less than most crews: 0.6x the league rate (17 in 45 games since 2021).

Measure	Eck	League	Rank
Flags per game	10.8	11.7	15 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.56	0.70	14 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.51	0.72	17 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.80	1.00	17 of 17
Offensive holding	2.20	2.28	12 of 17
Defensive holding	0.38	0.65	17 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.42	0.37	5 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.91	0.60	1 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.4% (20/45)Home covered 53.3% (24/45)Favorite covered 64.4% (29/45)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)70

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

New York (J)19

–

28Kansas City

SPREAD

New York (J) +8.5

48% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Over 47.5

50% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET

New York (J) @ Kansas City

19%

81%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKNew York (J) +8.5 SPREADLOSS

Our team ratings like New York (J) more than the betting line does.

FINAL

New York (J) 12 · Kansas City 35

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

We make Kansas City the more likely winner (81%), projecting about 19-28 (New York (J) 19, Kansas City 28).
Overall we rank New York (J) 19th and Kansas City 6th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Over 44.5

Officials: Referee Adrian Hill

One of the loudest stadiums in pro football

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

New York (J) is 2-7 (L L L in last 3), 20.2 points for and 24.8 against per game.
Kansas City is 6-2 (L L W in last 3), 25.2 points for and 17.9 against per game.

Total, model read: Over 44.5
Out: New York (J): G. Wilson (WR), T. Patrick (WR), B. Freeland (OL), K. Levao (G), J. Ossai (DE), T. Baron (DE), T. Wallace (LB), N. Wright (CB), and 11 more · Kansas City: G. Nussmeier (QB), D. Pounds (OT), B. VanSumeren (FB), O. Norman-Lott (DT), P. Woods (DT), J. Pyburn (LB), M. Delane (CB), B. Smith (RB), and 8 more
Officials: Referee Adrian Hill

Referee profile: Adrian Hill

Adrian HillReferee · 76 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Hill	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.5	11.7	2 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.84	0.70	4 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.96	0.72	1 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.18	1.00	1 of 17
Offensive holding	2.75	2.28	1 of 17
Defensive holding	0.76	0.65	3 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.43	0.37	4 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.58	0.60	12 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 52.6% (40/76)Home covered 50.0% (38/76)Favorite covered 50.0% (38/76)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)66

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Detroit28

–

22Miami

OVER / UNDER

Under 50.5

52% chance to hit

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET

Detroit @ Miami

70%

30%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKUnder 50.5 TOTAL · MODEL READ

Our scoring read for this matchup is below the betting total.

FINAL

Detroit 19 · Miami 9

✓ Moneyline✓ Total

We make Detroit the more likely winner (70%), projecting about 28-22 (Detroit 28, Miami 22).
Detroit is 6-2 (W W W in last 3), 27.8 points for and 23.6 against per game.

Out: Detroit: J. Saylors (RB), J. Meeks (WR), G. Manu (OT), C. Mays (C), A. Hassanein (DE), M. Wingo (DT), D. Wonnum (LB), D. Reed (CB), and 12 more · Miami: J. Wright (RB), J. Tolbert (WR), J. Joly (TE), C. Godrick (OT), C. Haynes (G), D. Baker Jr. (CB), M. Dial Jr. (CB), R. Taylor (CB), and 5 more

Officials: Referee Land Clark

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Miami is 1-7 (W L L in last 3), 15.8 points for and 25.0 against per game.

Out: Detroit: J. Saylors (RB), J. Meeks (WR), G. Manu (OT), C. Mays (C), A. Hassanein (DE), M. Wingo (DT), D. Wonnum (LB), D. Reed (CB), and 12 more · Miami: J. Wright (RB), J. Tolbert (WR), J. Joly (TE), C. Godrick (OT), C. Haynes (G), D. Baker Jr. (CB), M. Dial Jr. (CB), R. Taylor (CB), and 5 more
Officials: Referee Land Clark

Referee profile: Land Clark

Land ClarkReferee · 73 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Clark	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.7	11.7	9 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.63	0.70	12 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.73	0.72	7 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.81	1.00	16 of 17
Offensive holding	2.22	2.28	11 of 17
Defensive holding	0.52	0.65	15 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.47	0.37	2 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.62	0.60	8 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 49.3% (36/73)Home covered 42.9% (30/70)Favorite covered 44.3% (31/70)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)71

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Cleveland19

–

23New Orleans

SPREAD

New Orleans -3.5

52% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 42.5

51% chance to hit

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland @ New Orleans

34%

66%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKNew Orleans -3.5 SPREADLOSS

Our team ratings like New Orleans more than the betting line does; Cleveland's starting QB is out; home field for New Orleans; New Orleans is better rested.

FINAL

Cleveland 22 · New Orleans 23

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

We make New Orleans the more likely winner (66%), projecting about 19-23 (Cleveland 19, New Orleans 23).
Overall we rank New Orleans 20th and Cleveland 17th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Out: Cleveland: D. Watson (QB), T. Green (QB), J. Royer (TE), P. Brailsford (C), M. Collins (DT), J. Owusu-Koramoah (LB), J. Jefferson (LB), N. Igbinoghene (CB), and 7 more · New Orleans: Z. Wilson (QB), C. Donaldson (RB), M. Tipton (WR), M. Murphy (OT), N. Saldiveri (OT), C. Miller (DT), J. Ridgeway III (DT), J. Ford (LB), and 7 more

Officials: Referee Shawn Hochuli Ref note: Calls roughing the passer 1.6x the league rate (49 in 82 games since 2021). Throws late flags in close games 1.4x the league rate (81 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 82 games since 2021).

One of the loudest stadiums in pro football

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Cleveland is 5-4 (W L L in last 3), 17.9 points for and 21.8 against per game.
New Orleans is 3-5 (W L W in last 3), 23.1 points for and 27.0 against per game.
New Orleans has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).

Out: Cleveland: D. Watson (QB), T. Green (QB), J. Royer (TE), P. Brailsford (C), M. Collins (DT), J. Owusu-Koramoah (LB), J. Jefferson (LB), N. Igbinoghene (CB), and 7 more · New Orleans: Z. Wilson (QB), C. Donaldson (RB), M. Tipton (WR), M. Murphy (OT), N. Saldiveri (OT), C. Miller (DT), J. Ridgeway III (DT), J. Ford (LB), and 7 more
Officials: Referee Shawn Hochuli
Ref note: Calls roughing the passer 1.6x the league rate (49 in 82 games since 2021). Throws late flags in close games 1.4x the league rate (81 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 82 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Shawn Hochuli

Shawn HochuliReferee · 82 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: roughing the passer, flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games.

Calls roughing the passer 1.6x the league rate (49 in 82 games since 2021).
Throws late flags in close games 1.4x the league rate (81 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 82 games since 2021).

Measure	Hochuli	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.5	11.7	1 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.99	0.70	2 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.74	0.72	5 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.06	1.00	6 of 17
Offensive holding	2.51	2.28	5 of 17
Defensive holding	0.68	0.65	8 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.60	0.37	1 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.67	0.60	6 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 42.7% (35/82)Home covered 45.7% (37/81)Favorite covered 40.0% (32/80)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)65

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

New York (G)21

–

18Philadelphia

OVER / UNDER

Over 38.5

52% chance to hit

Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET

New York (G) @ Philadelphia

63%

37%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKOver 38.5 TOTAL · MODEL READ

Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.

FINAL

New York (G) 19 · Philadelphia 11

✓ Moneyline✗ Total

We make New York (G) the more likely winner (63%), projecting about 21-18 (New York (G) 21, Philadelphia 18).
New York (G) is 5-2-1 (L W W in last 3), 22.8 points for and 21.5 against per game.

Out: New York (G): C. Skattebo (RB), T. Fidone II (TE), M. Mbow (OT), J. Sills (G), C. Okoye (DT), C. Hood (CB), N. Reed (CB), J. Dart (QB), and 12 more · Philadelphia: B. Covey (WR), D. Smith (WR), D. Wicks (WR), L. Johnson (OT), J. Campbell (LB), J. Jones (CB), M. Carter II (CB), T. Large (S), and 5 more

Officials: Referee Bill Vinovich Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (14 in 77 games since 2021).

RIVALRY Division rivalry

Loud stadium for visiting teams

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Philadelphia is 2-7 (L L L in last 3), 16.4 points for and 24.6 against per game.
New York (G) has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Out: New York (G): C. Skattebo (RB), T. Fidone II (TE), M. Mbow (OT), J. Sills (G), C. Okoye (DT), C. Hood (CB), N. Reed (CB), J. Dart (QB), and 12 more · Philadelphia: B. Covey (WR), D. Smith (WR), D. Wicks (WR), L. Johnson (OT), J. Campbell (LB), J. Jones (CB), M. Carter II (CB), T. Large (S), and 5 more
Officials: Referee Bill Vinovich
Ref note: Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (14 in 77 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Bill Vinovich

Bill VinovichReferee · 77 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: roughing the passer.

Calls roughing the passer less than most crews: 0.5x the league rate (14 in 77 games since 2021).

Measure	Vinovich	League	Rank
Flags per game	10.6	11.7	16 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.49	0.70	17 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.62	0.72	14 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.00	1.00	9 of 17
Offensive holding	1.77	2.28	17 of 17
Defensive holding	0.48	0.65	16 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.18	0.37	16 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.51	0.60	14 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.1% (37/77)Home covered 41.6% (32/77)Favorite covered 37.7% (29/77)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)58

4:05 PM ET 4 games

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Houston24

–

17Los Angeles (C)

SPREAD

Houston -5.5

54% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Over 40.5

50% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET

Houston @ Los Angeles (C)

74%

26%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKHouston -5.5 SPREADWIN

Our team ratings like Houston more than the betting line does; Houston is better rested.

FINAL

Houston 44 · Los Angeles (C) 22

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total

We make Houston the more likely winner (74%), projecting about 24-17 (Houston 24, Los Angeles (C) 17).
Houston's offense ranks 7th of 32 against a 22nd-ranked Los Angeles (C) defense.

Out: Houston: D. Montgomery (RB), C. Stover (TE), B. Smith (OT), N. Thomas (OT), F. Nwaiwu (G), E. Speed (LB), R. Blankenship (S), G. Mertz (QB), and 11 more · Los Angeles (C): B. Thompson (WR), T. Wease Jr. (WR), I. World (OT), K. Awosika (G), D. Leonard (CB), K. Williamson (S), T. Lance (QB), D. Njoku (TE), and 7 more

Officials: Referee Alex Moore Ref note: Throws more flags than most crews: 1.4x the league rate (240 in 15 games, one season only). Throws late flags in close games 2.2x the league rate (23 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 15 games, one season only).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Houston is 3-5 (W L W in last 3), 26.1 points for and 24.0 against per game.
Los Angeles (C) is 0-8 (L L L in last 3), 15.1 points for and 27.4 against per game.
Houston has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).

Out: Houston: D. Montgomery (RB), C. Stover (TE), B. Smith (OT), N. Thomas (OT), F. Nwaiwu (G), E. Speed (LB), R. Blankenship (S), G. Mertz (QB), and 11 more · Los Angeles (C): B. Thompson (WR), T. Wease Jr. (WR), I. World (OT), K. Awosika (G), D. Leonard (CB), K. Williamson (S), T. Lance (QB), D. Njoku (TE), and 7 more
Officials: Referee Alex Moore
Ref note: Throws more flags than most crews: 1.4x the league rate (240 in 15 games, one season only). Throws late flags in close games 2.2x the league rate (23 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 15 games, one season only).

Referee profile: Alex Moore

Alex MooreReferee · 15 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: flags overall, flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games (one season only).

Throws more flags than most crews: 1.4x the league rate (240 in 15 games, one season only).
Throws late flags in close games 2.2x the league rate (23 flags in the last 5 minutes of one-score games, 15 games, one season only).

Measure	Moore	League
Flags per game	16.0	11.7
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	1.53	0.70
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	1.60	0.72
Defensive pass interference	0.67	1.00
Offensive holding	3.33	2.28
Defensive holding	0.80	0.65
Roughing the passer	1.00	0.37
Unnecessary roughness	0.80	0.60

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 66.7% (10/15)Home covered 53.3% (8/15)Favorite covered 46.7% (7/15)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)65

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Las Vegas22

–

29San Francisco

SPREAD

Las Vegas +8.5

55% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 51.5

50% chance to hit

Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET

Las Vegas @ San Francisco

23%

77%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKLas Vegas +8.5 SPREADLOSS

Our team ratings like Las Vegas more than the betting line does; San Francisco has more key players out.

FINAL

Las Vegas 17 · San Francisco 38

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

We make San Francisco the more likely winner (77%), projecting about 22-29 (Las Vegas 22, San Francisco 29).
Overall we rank Las Vegas 18th and San Francisco 2nd of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Over 48.5

Officials: Referee Scott Novak Ref note: Calls illegal contact 1.5x the league rate (28 in 79 games since 2021).

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Las Vegas is 4-5 (L W L in last 3), 26.4 points for and 29.8 against per game.
San Francisco is 7-1 (W L W in last 3), 29.4 points for and 19.5 against per game.
San Francisco has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).

Total, model read: Over 48.5
Out: Las Vegas: A. O'Connell (QB), D. Thornton Jr. (WR), M. Benson (WR), B. Cabeldue (G), T. Booker IV (DT), D. Johnson (S), C. Collier (RB), J. Pickett (G), and 4 more · San Francisco: I. Guerendo (RB), B. Aiyuk (WR), D. Samuel Sr. (WR), M. Evans (WR), C. Kirk (WR), D. Stribling (WR), R. Pearsall (WR), J. Tonges (TE), and 10 more
Officials: Referee Scott Novak
Ref note: Calls illegal contact 1.5x the league rate (28 in 79 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Scott Novak

Scott NovakReferee · 79 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: illegal contact.

Calls illegal contact 1.5x the league rate (28 in 79 games since 2021).

Measure	Novak	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.6	11.7	10 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.52	0.70	16 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.67	0.72	10 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.96	1.00	11 of 17
Offensive holding	2.29	2.28	9 of 17
Defensive holding	0.61	0.65	10 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.28	0.37	14 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.46	0.60	15 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 48.1% (38/79)Home covered 44.3% (35/79)Favorite covered 48.1% (38/79)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)71

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Arizona16

–

24Seattle

SPREAD

Arizona +8.5

55% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Over 39.5

52% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET

Arizona @ Seattle

23%

77%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKArizona +8.5 SPREADLOSS

Our team ratings like Arizona more than the betting line does; Seattle's starting QB is out.

FINAL

Arizona 3 · Seattle 17

✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total

We make Seattle the more likely winner (77%), projecting about 16-24 (Arizona 16, Seattle 24).
Overall we rank Arizona 24th and Seattle 14th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Over 39.5

Officials: Referee Clete Blakeman Ref note: Calls illegal contact 1.7x the league rate (31 in 77 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding 1.3x the league rate (66 in 77 games since 2021).

RIVALRY Division rivalry

One of the loudest stadiums in pro football

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Arizona is 3-6 (L W L in last 3), 19.8 points for and 28.3 against per game.
Seattle is 5-4 (W L W in last 3), 22.4 points for and 18.0 against per game.
Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.

Total, model read: Over 39.5
Out: Arizona: B. Knight (RB), T. Reiman (TE), J. Williams (OT), J. Gaines II (G), J. Conner (RB), J. Love (RB), T. Benson (RB), J. Brooks (WR), and 8 more · Seattle: S. Darnold (QB), R. Shaheed (WR), C. Cross (OT), Q. Nelson (G), B. Pili (DT), L. Williams (DT), U. Nwosu (LB), T. Arnold (CB), and 6 more
Officials: Referee Clete Blakeman
Ref note: Calls illegal contact 1.7x the league rate (31 in 77 games since 2021). Calls defensive holding 1.3x the league rate (66 in 77 games since 2021).

Referee profile: Clete Blakeman

Clete BlakemanReferee · 77 games · 2021-2025

Stands out on: illegal contact, defensive holding.

Calls illegal contact 1.7x the league rate (31 in 77 games since 2021).
Calls defensive holding 1.3x the league rate (66 in 77 games since 2021).

Measure	Blakeman	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.4	11.7	3 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.64	0.70	11 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.70	0.72	9 of 17
Defensive pass interference	1.04	1.00	8 of 17
Offensive holding	2.31	2.28	8 of 17
Defensive holding	0.86	0.65	1 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.34	0.37	11 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.77	0.60	3 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 50.0% (37/74)Home covered 56.0% (42/75)Favorite covered 52.0% (39/75)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)62

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Green Bay21

–

24New England

OVER / UNDER

Over 44.5

54% chance to hit

Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET

Green Bay @ New England

38%

62%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKOver 45.5 TOTAL · MODEL READ

Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.

FINAL

Green Bay 45 · New England 27

✗ Moneyline✓ Total

We make New England the more likely winner (62%), projecting about 21-24 (Green Bay 21, New England 24).
Green Bay is 6-3 (L W W in last 3), 24.0 points for and 21.2 against per game.

Out: Green Bay: L. Musgrave (TE), M. Parsons (DE), C. Brooks (RB), J. Reed (WR), S. Moore (WR), T. Yassmin (TE), Z. Bako-Bewele (OT), J. Monk (C), and 6 more · New England: H. Landry III (LB), M. Montgomery (RB), M. Hollins (WR), R. Doubs (WR), J. Hill (TE), A. Vera-Tucker (G), G. Van Roten (G), M. Onwenu (G), and 4 more

Officials: Referee Alex Kemp

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

New England is 5-4 (L W L in last 3), 23.4 points for and 23.0 against per game.
Green Bay has the rest edge (10 days vs 7).

Out: Green Bay: L. Musgrave (TE), M. Parsons (DE), C. Brooks (RB), J. Reed (WR), S. Moore (WR), T. Yassmin (TE), Z. Bako-Bewele (OT), J. Monk (C), and 6 more · New England: H. Landry III (LB), M. Montgomery (RB), M. Hollins (WR), R. Doubs (WR), J. Hill (TE), A. Vera-Tucker (G), G. Van Roten (G), M. Onwenu (G), and 4 more
Officials: Referee Alex Kemp

Referee profile: Alex Kemp

Alex KempReferee · 76 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Kemp	League	Rank
Flags per game	12.2	11.7	6 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.72	0.70	6 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.54	0.72	16 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.84	1.00	15 of 17
Offensive holding	2.45	2.28	6 of 17
Defensive holding	0.76	0.65	3 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.41	0.37	6 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.59	0.60	10 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 47.4% (36/76)Home covered 42.1% (32/76)Favorite covered 53.9% (41/76)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)67

8:20 PM ET 1 game

OUR PROJECTED SCORE

Tampa Bay21

–

26Chicago

SPREAD

Tampa Bay +6

55% chance to cover

OVER / UNDER

Under 47.5

52% chance to hit

TOP PICKSun Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

31%

69%

Win chance · our model

OUR PICKTampa Bay +6 SPREADWIN

Our team ratings like Tampa Bay more than the betting line does; Chicago has more key players out.

FINAL

Tampa Bay 24 · Chicago 27

✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total

We make Chicago the more likely winner (69%), projecting about 21-26 (Tampa Bay 21, Chicago 26).
Overall we rank Tampa Bay 16th and Chicago 8th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.

Total, model read: Under 47.5

Officials: Referee Ronald Torbert

Full breakdown

MORE REASONS

Tampa Bay is 3-6 (W W L in last 3), 22.4 points for and 19.8 against per game.
Chicago is 7-2 (W W W in last 3), 26.8 points for and 20.4 against per game.

Total, model read: Under 47.5
Out: Tampa Bay: Y. Diaby (LB), J. McMillan (WR), C. Rozeboom (LB), M. Kamara (LB), J. Hayes (CB) · Chicago: C. Keenum (QB), K. Monangai (RB), J. Loving (DT), K. Elliott (LB), B. Brown (RB), Z. Scott (RB), C. Kmet (TE), H. Large (TE), and 9 more
Officials: Referee Ronald Torbert

Referee profile: Ronald Torbert

Ronald TorbertReferee · 84 games · 2021-2025

Unremarkable on every measure we track: nothing clears the bar for a note.

Measure	Torbert	League	Rank
Flags per game	11.9	11.7	8 of 17
Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game	0.65	0.70	9 of 17
Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD	0.63	0.72	13 of 17
Defensive pass interference	0.92	1.00	14 of 17
Offensive holding	2.55	2.28	4 of 17
Defensive holding	0.55	0.65	13 of 17
Roughing the passer	0.37	0.37	9 of 17
Unnecessary roughness	0.70	0.60	4 of 17

IN THE GAMES WORKED

Over 44.0% (37/84)Home covered 47.6% (40/84)Favorite covered 51.2% (43/84)

Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.

Input quality (not a win chance)80