MONDAY NOV 9 graded picks
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Buffalo25
–
21Minnesota
OVER / UNDER
Over 45.5
51% chance to hit
TOP PICKMon Nov 9 路 8:15 PM ET
Buffalo
@
Minnesota
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKOver 44.5
TOTAL 路 MODEL READ
Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.
FINAL
Buffalo 23 · Minnesota 6
✓ Moneyline✗ Total
- We make Buffalo the more likely winner (65%), projecting about 25-21 (Buffalo 25, Minnesota 21).
Out: Buffalo: J. Palmer (WR), T. Shavers (WR), D. Strong (CB), Z. Durant (DT), J. Hancock (CB) 路 Minnesota: K. Murray (QB), D. Claiborne (RB), J. Jennings (WR), J. Oliver (TE), D. Jackson (G), N. Samac (C), J. Adams (LB), T. Batty (LB)
Officials: Referee Carl Cheffers Ref note: Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (33 in 75 games since 2021).
One of the loudest stadiums in pro football
Full breakdown
- Out
- Buffalo: J. Palmer (WR), T. Shavers (WR), D. Strong (CB), Z. Durant (DT), J. Hancock (CB) 路 Minnesota: K. Murray (QB), D. Claiborne (RB), J. Jennings (WR), J. Oliver (TE), D. Jackson (G), N. Samac (C), J. Adams (LB), T. Batty (LB)
- Officials
- Referee Carl Cheffers
- Ref note
- Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (33 in 75 games since 2021).
Referee profile: Carl Cheffers
Carl CheffersReferee 路 75 games 路 2021-2025
Stands out on: offensive pass interference.
- Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (33 in 75 games since 2021).
| Measure | Cheffers | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flags per game | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5 of 17 |
| Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game | 0.85 | 0.70 | 3 of 17 |
| Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD | 0.89 | 0.72 | 2 of 17 |
| Defensive pass interference | 1.16 | 1.00 | 2 of 17 |
| Offensive holding | 2.37 | 2.28 | 7 of 17 |
| Defensive holding | 0.71 | 0.65 | 7 of 17 |
| Roughing the passer | 0.32 | 0.37 | 12 of 17 |
| Unnecessary roughness | 0.64 | 0.60 | 7 of 17 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 50.7% (38/75)Home covered 53.3% (40/75)Favorite covered 44.0% (33/75)Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.
Input quality (not a win chance)81