THURSDAY NOV 12 graded picks
Went 0-1 on the day
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Washington20
–
21New York (G)
SPREAD
New York (G) -1.5
50% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 40.5
52% chance to hit
Thu Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ET
Washington
@
New York (G)
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNew York (G) -1.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like New York (G) more than the betting line does; home field for New York (G).
FINAL
Washington 24 · New York (G) 21
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- We make New York (G) the more likely winner (56%), projecting about 20-21 (Washington 20, New York (G) 21).
- Overall we rank New York (G) 14th and Washington 15th of 32.
Total, model read: Over 40.5
Officials: Referee Brad Rogers Ref note: Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (36 in 79 games since 2021).
RIVALRY Division rivalry
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Washington is 3-5-1 (W L W in last 3), 21.8 points for and 24.8 against per game.
- New York (G) is 5-3-1 (W W L in last 3), 22.6 points for and 21.8 against per game.
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Total, model read
- Over 40.5
- Officials
- Referee Brad Rogers
- Ref note
- Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (36 in 79 games since 2021).
Referee profile: Brad Rogers
Brad RogersReferee · 79 games · 2021-2025
Stands out on: offensive pass interference.
- Calls offensive pass interference 1.8x the league rate (36 in 79 games since 2021).
| Measure | Rogers | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flags per game | 12.3 | 11.7 | 4 of 17 |
| Late flags in close games last 5 minutes, one-score game | 0.72 | 0.70 | 7 of 17 |
| Pivotal flags per game 10+ pt win-prob swing or wiped TD | 0.67 | 0.72 | 10 of 17 |
| Defensive pass interference | 1.11 | 1.00 | 5 of 17 |
| Offensive holding | 2.59 | 2.28 | 3 of 17 |
| Defensive holding | 0.72 | 0.65 | 5 of 17 |
| Roughing the passer | 0.41 | 0.37 | 7 of 17 |
| Unnecessary roughness | 0.58 | 0.60 | 11 of 17 |
IN THE GAMES WORKED
Over 46.8% (37/79)Home covered 54.4% (43/79)Favorite covered 50.6% (40/79)Betting rates this size are noise: the study found no referee effect that held out of sample.
Input quality (not a win chance)70