FRIDAY OCT 23 graded picks
Went 7-5 on the day
TOP PICKFri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ET
Memphis111
Golden State108
FINAL · we projected 113.3 – 113.1Projected total 226.4
SPREADMemphis +4.565%
OVER / UNDERUnder 236.571%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Memphis favored
OUR PICKMemphis +4.5SPREADWIN
65%ConfidenceMemphis has the stronger roster on paper; Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Memphis has a clear edge in roster quality over Golden State
- Golden State gets home court
- Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis
OutMemphis: Zach Edey (C), Karim Lopez (F); Golden State: Jimmy Butler III (F), Moses Moody (G), Kristaps Porzingis (C)
PLAYER PROPS
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Under 1.5 threes made79%WIN
- Gui SantosUnder 0.5 blocks76%LOSS
- Brandin PodziemskiUnder 1.5 steals76%LOSS
2 more props
- Draymond GreenUnder 1.5 steals75%WIN
- Zach EdeyUnder 1.5 assists75%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Memphis 4-1, Golden State 3-2 over their last five
- Memphis is led by Ty Jerome
- We like Memphis getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
TOP PICKFri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
Dallas121
Indiana105
FINAL · we projected 113.2 – 116.5Projected total 229.7
SPREADDallas +7.564%
OVER / UNDERUnder 239.570%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Indiana favored
OUR PICKDallas +7.5SPREADWIN
64%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Dallas still gets the edge without Santi Aldama.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Indiana and Dallas are closely matched on paper
- Indiana gets home court
- Dallas is without Santi Aldama
OutDallas: Cooper Flagg (F), Naji Marshall (F), Santi Aldama (F), Dereck Lively II (C), Caleb Martin (F), Tarik Biberovic (F); Indiana: Ben Sheppard (G), Johnny Furphy (G), T.J. McConnell (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- Jarace WalkerUnder 3.5 assists85%WIN
- Pascal SiakamUnder 1.5 steals81%WIN
- Kyrie IrvingUnder 1.5 steals78%WIN
2 more props
- Daniel GaffordUnder 1.5 blocks78%LOSS
- Cooper FlaggUnder 1.5 steals77%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Indiana has 3 players out
- Recent games: Dallas 1-4, Indiana 2-3 over their last five
- Indiana is led by Tyrese Haliburton
TOP PICKFri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
Atlanta128
Charlotte81
FINAL · we projected 112.3 – 113.7Projected total 226
SPREADCharlotte +2.563%
OVER / UNDERUnder 226.551%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Charlotte favored
OUR PICKCharlotte +2.5SPREADLOSS
63%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Charlotte has home court; Charlotte still gets the edge without Kon Knueppel and Coby White.
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Charlotte and Atlanta are closely matched on paper
- Charlotte gets home court
- Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel and Coby White
OutAtlanta: Mouhamed Gueye (F), Henri Veesaar (C); Charlotte: Kon Knueppel (G), Coby White (G), Grant Williams (F), Kylan Boswell (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- Dennis SchroderUnder 1.5 threes made77%WIN
- Dyson DanielsUnder 0.5 blocks72%LOSS
- Sion JamesUnder 2.5 assists72%LOSS
2 more props
- Jalen JohnsonUnder 0.5 blocks71%LOSS
- CJ McCollumUnder 0.5 blocks68%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Atlanta 5-0, Charlotte 2-3 over their last five
- Charlotte is led by Brandon Miller
- We like Charlotte getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
TOP PICKFri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
New York103
Boston107
FINAL · we projected 112.9 – 118.5Projected total 231.4
SPREADBoston -2.560%
OVER / UNDEROver 220.572%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Boston favored
OUR PICKBoston -2.5SPREADWIN
60%ConfidenceBoston has the stronger roster on paper and home court.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Boston has a clear edge in roster quality over New York
- Boston gets home court
- Recent games: New York 1-4, Boston 4-1 over their last five
OutNew York: Jose Alvarado (G); Boston: Devin Carter (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- Baylor ScheiermanUnder 1.5 threes made76%WIN
- Jayson TatumUnder 0.5 blocks76%WIN
- Paul GeorgeUnder 0.5 blocks74%WIN
2 more props
- OG AnunobyUnder 2.5 threes made72%WIN
- Jalen BrunsonUnder 2.5 threes made72%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Boston is led by Jayson Tatum
- We like Boston to win by more than the line
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ET
Los Angeles (C)117
Los Angeles (L)125
FINAL · we projected 108.8 – 120.3Projected total 229.1
SPREADLos Angeles (L) -8.560%
OVER / UNDEROver 225.558%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Los Angeles (L) favored
OUR PICKLos Angeles (L) -8.5SPREADLOSS
60%ConfidenceLos Angeles (L) has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal and Max Strus; Los Angeles (L) still gets the edge without Jake LaRavia.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Los Angeles (L) has a big edge in roster quality over Los Angeles (C)
- Los Angeles (L) gets home court
- Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal and Max Strus
OutLos Angeles (C): Brandon Ingram (F), Bradley Beal (G), Max Strus (G), Jordan Miller (G), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (C); Los Angeles (L): Cameron Carr (G), Adou Thiero (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Matisse ThybulleUnder 1.5 threes made81%LOSS
- Kris DunnUnder 0.5 blocks77%WIN
- Austin ReavesUnder 2.5 threes made76%LOSS
2 more props
- Sandro MamukelashviliUnder 1.5 threes made72%WIN
- Ziaire WilliamsUnder 1.5 threes made70%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Los Angeles (L) is without Jake LaRavia
- Recent games: Los Angeles (C) 3-1, Los Angeles (L) 2-3 over their last five
- Los Angeles (L) is led by Luka Doncic
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
Toronto112
Washington102
FINAL · we projected 120.2 – 111Projected total 231.2
SPREADToronto -8.552%
OVER / UNDERUnder 236.561%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Toronto favored
OUR PICKToronto -8.5SPREADWIN
52%ConfidenceToronto has the stronger roster on paper.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Toronto has a big edge in roster quality over Washington
- Washington gets home court
- Washington has 3 players out
OutToronto: Kawhi Leonard (F), Nate Bittle (C); Washington: AJ Dybantsa (F), Jamir Watkins (G), Tristan Vukcevic (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Bilal CoulibalyUnder 1.5 threes made80%WIN
- Alex SarrUnder 1.5 threes made78%WIN
- Scottie BarnesUnder 1.5 blocks75%LOSS
2 more props
- Immanuel QuickleyUnder 1.5 steals74%WIN
- Kawhi LeonardUnder 0.5 blocks72%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Toronto 3-2, Washington 3-2 over their last five
- Toronto is led by Kawhi Leonard
- We like Toronto to win by more than the line
Fri Oct 23 · 8:00 PM ET
Detroit128
Miami111
FINAL · we projected 114.8 – 112.7Projected total 227.5
SPREADDetroit -1.552%
OVER / UNDERUnder 235.567%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Detroit favored
OUR PICKDetroit -1.5SPREADWIN
52%ConfidenceDetroit has the stronger roster on paper.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Detroit has a clear edge in roster quality over Miami
- Miami gets home court
- Recent games: Detroit 4-1, Miami 2-3 over their last five
OutDetroit: Jalen Duren (C), Ausar Thompson (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- Ausar ThompsonUnder 1.5 blocks81%WIN
- Isaiah JoeUnder 4.5 rebounds + assists75%WIN
- Cade CunninghamUnder 1.5 steals75%WIN
2 more props
- Jalen DurenUnder 2.5 assists74%LOSS
- John CollinsUnder 1.5 assists74%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Detroit is led by Cade Cunningham
- We like Detroit to win by more than the line
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ET
Portland128
Sacramento120
FINAL · we projected 120.8 – 110.7Projected total 231.5
SPREADPortland -9.552%
OVER / UNDERUnder 231.550%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Portland favored
OUR PICKPortland -9.5SPREADLOSS
52%ConfidencePortland has the stronger roster on paper; Sacramento is without Maxime Raynaud; Portland still gets the edge without Shaedon Sharpe.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Portland has a big edge in roster quality over Sacramento
- Sacramento gets home court
- Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe
OutPortland: Shaedon Sharpe (G); Sacramento: Keegan Murray (F), Maxime Raynaud (C), Dylan Cardwell (C), Ben Simmons (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- Keegan MurrayUnder 1.5 blocks79%WIN
- Ja MorantUnder 1.5 steals77%WIN
- Robert Williams IIIUnder 1.5 blocks76%WIN
2 more props
- Zach LaVineUnder 2.5 threes made71%LOSS
- Damian LillardUnder 28.5 points + rebounds + assists67%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Sacramento is without Maxime Raynaud
- Recent games: Portland 3-1, Sacramento 0-5 over their last five
- Portland is led by Deni Avdija
Fri Oct 23 · 4:00 PM ET
Chicago132
Milwaukee125
FINAL · we projected 114.1 – 115.9Projected total 230
SPREADMilwaukee -1.551%
OVER / UNDERUnder 241.573%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Milwaukee favored
OUR PICKMilwaukee -1.5SPREADLOSS
51%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Chicago is without Nic Claxton; Milwaukee has home court.
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Milwaukee and Chicago are closely matched on paper
- Milwaukee gets home court
- Chicago is without Nic Claxton
OutChicago: Nic Claxton (C)
PLAYER PROPS
- Josh GiddeyUnder 1.5 steals81%WIN
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Under 0.5 blocks77%WIN
- Kyle KuzmaUnder 0.5 blocks74%WIN
2 more props
- Buddy HieldUnder 2.5 rebounds74%WIN
- Brayden BurriesUnder 1 steals71%PUSH
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Chicago 2-3, Milwaukee 2-3 over their last five
- Milwaukee is led by Tyler Herro
- We like Milwaukee to win by more than the line
Fri Oct 23 · 9:30 PM ET
Houston114
San Antonio110
FINAL · we projected 112.2 – 117Projected total 229.2
SPREADSan Antonio -4.551%
OVER / UNDEROver 224.560%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · San Antonio favored
OUR PICKSan Antonio -4.5SPREADLOSS
51%ConfidenceSan Antonio has the stronger roster on paper and home court; San Antonio still gets the edge without Tobias Harris.
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- San Antonio has a clear edge in roster quality over Houston
- San Antonio gets home court
- San Antonio is without Tobias Harris
OutHouston: Steven Adams (C); San Antonio: Tobias Harris (F), Jayden Quaintance (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Stephon CastleUnder 1.5 steals82%WIN
- Fred VanVleetUnder 1.5 steals77%LOSS
- De'Aaron FoxUnder 1.5 steals76%LOSS
2 more props
- Jabari Smith Jr.Under 2.5 threes made75%WIN
- Julian ChampagnieUnder 2.5 threes made73%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Houston 3-1, San Antonio 2-3 over their last five
- San Antonio is led by Victor Wembanyama
- We like San Antonio to win by more than the line
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
Minnesota115
Orlando93
FINAL · we projected 114.4 – 115.7Projected total 230.1
SPREADMinnesota +1.550%
OVER / UNDERUnder 234.559%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Orlando favored
OUR PICKMinnesota +1.5SPREADWIN
50%ConfidenceMinnesota has the stronger roster on paper; Orlando is without Anthony Black; Minnesota still gets the edge without Donte DiVincenzo.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Orlando and Minnesota are closely matched on paper
- Orlando gets home court
- Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo
OutMinnesota: Donte DiVincenzo (G); Orlando: Paolo Banchero (F), Noah Penda (F), Jonathan Isaac (F), Izaiyah Nelson (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Franz WagnerUnder 1.5 steals75%WIN
- Anthony EdwardsUnder 1.5 steals73%LOSS
- Jaden McDanielsUnder 1.5 threes made71%LOSS
2 more props
- Desmond BaneUnder 1.5 steals71%WIN
- Rudy GobertUnder 1.5 blocks69%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Orlando is without Anthony Black
- Recent games: Minnesota 3-2, Orlando 3-2 over their last five
- Orlando is led by Paolo Banchero
Fri Oct 23 · 9:30 PM ET
New Orleans119
Utah120
FINAL · we projected 116.6 – 118Projected total 234.6
SPREADNew Orleans +1.550%
OVER / UNDERUnder 238.558%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Utah favored
OUR PICKNew Orleans +1.5SPREADWIN
50%ConfidenceNew Orleans has the stronger roster on paper; Utah is without Jusuf Nurkic.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Utah and New Orleans are closely matched on paper
- Utah gets home court
- Utah is without Jusuf Nurkic
OutNew Orleans: Yves Missi (C); Utah: Jusuf Nurkic (C), Trey Alexander (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- Keyonte GeorgeUnder 1.5 steals79%WIN
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Under 1.5 steals77%WIN
- Lauri MarkkanenUnder 2.5 assists75%LOSS
2 more props
- Jeremiah FearsUnder 1.5 threes made74%WIN
- Trey Murphy IIIUnder 1.5 steals74%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: New Orleans 3-2, Utah 3-2 over their last five
- Utah is led by Lauri Markkanen
- We like New Orleans getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says