WEDNESDAY OCT 21 graded picks
Went 6-5 on the day
TOP PICKWed Oct 21 · 7:00 PM ET
Milwaukee116
Washington128
FINAL · we projected 115.7 – 115.8Projected total 231.5
SPREADMilwaukee +4.564%
OVER / UNDERUnder 237.563%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Washington favored
OUR PICKMilwaukee +4.5SPREADLOSS
64%ConfidenceMilwaukee has the stronger roster on paper.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Washington and Milwaukee are closely matched on paper
- Washington gets home court
- Washington has 3 players out
OutWashington: AJ Dybantsa (F), Jamir Watkins (G), Tristan Vukcevic (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Bilal CoulibalyUnder 1.5 threes made79%WIN
- Tyler HerroUnder 0.5 blocks78%WIN
- Kyle KuzmaUnder 1.5 threes made72%WIN
2 more props
- Ryan RollinsUnder 2.5 threes made71%WIN
- Kyshawn GeorgeUnder 4.5 rebounds70%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Milwaukee 2-3, Washington 2-2 over their last five
- Washington is led by Anthony Davis
- We like Milwaukee getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
TOP PICKWed Oct 21 · 8:30 PM ET
Dallas110
Houston128
FINAL · we projected 110.6 – 116.5Projected total 227.1
SPREADDallas +9.562%
OVER / UNDERUnder 230.557%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Houston favored
OUR PICKDallas +9.5SPREADLOSS
62%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Dallas still gets the edge without Santi Aldama.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Houston has a clear edge in roster quality over Dallas
- Houston gets home court
- Dallas is without Santi Aldama
OutDallas: Cooper Flagg (F), Kyrie Irving (G), Santi Aldama (F), Dereck Lively II (C), Caleb Martin (F), Tarik Biberovic (F); Houston: Fred VanVleet (G), Marcus Smart (G), Steven Adams (C)
PLAYER PROPS
- Cooper FlaggUnder 1.5 threes made77%WIN
- Kyrie IrvingUnder 1.5 steals77%WIN
- Zaccharie RisacherUnder 1.5 assists76%LOSS
2 more props
- Kevin DurantUnder 2.5 threes made72%WIN
- Tari EasonUnder 1.5 threes made72%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Dallas 1-3, Houston 2-1 over their last five
- Houston is led by Alperen Sengun
- We like Dallas getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
TOP PICKWed Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ET
Golden State105
Los Angeles (L)127
FINAL · we projected 109.2 – 119.2Projected total 228.4
SPREADLos Angeles (L) -6.562%
OVER / UNDERUnder 233.561%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Los Angeles (L) favored
OUR PICKLos Angeles (L) -6.5SPREADWIN
62%ConfidenceLos Angeles (L) has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Los Angeles (L) has a big edge in roster quality over Golden State
- Los Angeles (L) gets home court
- Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody
OutGolden State: Jimmy Butler III (F), Stephen Curry (G), Brandin Podziemski (G), Draymond Green (F), Moses Moody (G), Kristaps Porzingis (C), Al Horford (C); Los Angeles (L): Cameron Carr (G), Adou Thiero (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Matisse ThybulleUnder 1.5 assists78%WIN
- Draymond GreenUnder 1.5 steals73%WIN
- Yaxel LendeborgUnder 1.5 threes made73%WIN
2 more props
- Brandon WilliamsOver 4.5 rebounds + assists70%WIN
- Quentin GrimesUnder 6.5 rebounds + assists69%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Los Angeles (L) has 3 players out
- Recent games: Golden State 4-1, Los Angeles (L) 2-3 over their last five
- Los Angeles (L) is led by Luka Doncic
TOP PICKWed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET
Indiana123
New Orleans120
FINAL · we projected 116.2 – 116.2Projected total 232.4
SPREADNew Orleans +3.561%
OVER / UNDERUnder 238.563%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Indiana favored
OUR PICKNew Orleans +3.5SPREADWIN
61%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Indiana is without Aaron Nesmith; New Orleans has home court.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Indiana has a clear edge in roster quality over New Orleans
- New Orleans gets home court
- Indiana is without Aaron Nesmith
OutIndiana: Ben Sheppard (G), Johnny Furphy (G), T.J. McConnell (G); New Orleans: Yves Missi (C)
PLAYER PROPS
- Andrew NembhardUnder 1.5 steals81%WIN
- Tyrese HaliburtonUnder 1.5 steals78%WIN
- Yves MissiUnder 0.5 steals75%LOSS
2 more props
- Jeremiah FearsUnder 1.5 threes made74%WIN
- Ivica ZubacUnder 2.5 assists73%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Indiana 1-3, New Orleans 3-1 over their last five
- Indiana is led by Tyrese Haliburton
- We like New Orleans getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET
Chicago92
Toronto135
FINAL · we projected 110.6 – 119Projected total 229.6
SPREADChicago +10.557%
OVER / UNDERUnder 237.567%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Toronto favored
OUR PICKChicago +10.5SPREADLOSS
57%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Chicago still gets the edge without Nic Claxton.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- Toronto has a big edge in roster quality over Chicago
- Toronto gets home court
- Chicago is without Nic Claxton
OutChicago: Nic Claxton (C), Patrick Williams (F), Noa Essengue (F); Toronto: Nate Bittle (C)
PLAYER PROPS
- Immanuel QuickleyUnder 1.5 steals74%LOSS
- Ja'Kobe WalterUnder 1.5 assists73%LOSS
- Jamal SheadUnder 6.5 rebounds + assists72%LOSS
2 more props
- Leonard MillerUnder 0.5 steals72%LOSS
- Scottie BarnesUnder 1.5 steals71%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Chicago 3-2, Toronto 2-3 over their last five
- Toronto is led by Kawhi Leonard
- We like Chicago getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says
Wed Oct 21 · 7:00 PM ET
Atlanta132
Orlando125
FINAL · we projected 111.9 – 116.3Projected total 228.2
SPREADOrlando -2.556%
OVER / UNDERUnder 233.561%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Orlando favored
OUR PICKOrlando -2.5SPREADLOSS
56%ConfidenceOrlando has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Orlando still gets the edge without Anthony Black.
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Orlando has a clear edge in roster quality over Atlanta
- Orlando gets home court
- Orlando is without Anthony Black
OutAtlanta: Mouhamed Gueye (F), Henri Veesaar (C); Orlando: Paolo Banchero (F), Noah Penda (F), Jonathan Isaac (F), Izaiyah Nelson (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Jalen JohnsonUnder 1.5 steals79%WIN
- Aaron WigginsUnder 1.5 threes made76%LOSS
- Jalen SuggsUnder 2.5 threes made75%WIN
2 more props
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerUnder 3.5 assists74%WIN
- Nikola VucevicOver 0.5 threes made72%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Atlanta 4-1, Orlando 3-1 over their last five
- Orlando is led by Paolo Banchero
- We like Orlando to win by more than the line
Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET
RESTED · Brooklyn · 6d off
Charlotte110
Brooklyn103
FINAL · we projected 113.7 – 110.3Projected total 224
SPREADCharlotte -1.556%
OVER / UNDEROver 219.560%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Charlotte favored
OUR PICKCharlotte -1.5SPREADWIN
56%ConfidenceCharlotte has the stronger roster on paper; Charlotte still gets the edge without Kon Knueppel and Coby White.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- Charlotte has a clear edge in roster quality over Brooklyn
- Brooklyn gets home court
- Brooklyn is the more rested team (6 days off)
OutCharlotte: Kon Knueppel (G), Coby White (G), Grant Williams (F), Kylan Boswell (G); Brooklyn: Mikel Brown Jr. (G), Tyler Bilodeau (F)
PLAYER PROPS
- Dennis SchroderUnder 1.5 threes made76%WIN
- Keon EllisUnder 1.5 threes made75%WIN
- Julius RandleUnder 1.5 threes made73%LOSS
2 more props
- Nolan TraoreUnder 3.5 assists70%WIN
- Michael Porter Jr.Under 2.5 assists69%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel and Coby White
- Recent games: Charlotte 1-3, Brooklyn 3-1 over their last five
- Charlotte is led by Brandon Miller
Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET
Utah103
Memphis123
FINAL · we projected 114.7 – 118.2Projected total 232.9
SPREADMemphis -1.556%
OVER / UNDERUnder 240.566%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Memphis favored
OUR PICKMemphis -1.5SPREADWIN
56%ConfidenceMemphis has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Utah is without Jusuf Nurkic.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Memphis and Utah are closely matched on paper
- Memphis gets home court
- Utah is without Jusuf Nurkic
OutUtah: Jusuf Nurkic (C), Trey Alexander (G); Memphis: Zach Edey (C)
PLAYER PROPS
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Under 1.5 threes made77%WIN
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Under 1.5 steals76%WIN
- Ace BaileyUnder 4.5 rebounds71%LOSS
2 more props
- Jaylen WellsOver 0.5 assists71%LOSS
- Keyonte GeorgeUnder 2.5 threes made68%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Utah 3-1, Memphis 3-1 over their last five
- Memphis is led by Ty Jerome
- We like Memphis to win by more than the line
Wed Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ET
Phoenix83
Portland124
FINAL · we projected 113 – 117.7Projected total 230.7
SPREADPortland -2.556%
OVER / UNDERUnder 232.554%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Portland favored
OUR PICKPortland -2.5SPREADWIN
56%ConfidencePortland has the stronger roster on paper and home court; Portland still gets the edge without Shaedon Sharpe.
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Portland has a clear edge in roster quality over Phoenix
- Portland gets home court
- Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe
OutPhoenix: Mark Williams (C), Oso Ighodaro (F); Portland: Shaedon Sharpe (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- Devin BookerUnder 0.5 blocks80%LOSS
- Jalen GreenUnder 0.5 blocks76%LOSS
- Toumani CamaraUnder 1.5 steals71%WIN
2 more props
- Ja MorantUnder 1.5 threes made68%LOSS
- Miles BridgesUnder 21.5 points + rebounds67%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Phoenix 1-4, Portland 2-1 over their last five
- Portland is led by Deni Avdija
- We like Portland to win by more than the line
Wed Oct 21 · 10:30 PM ET
RESTED · Los Angeles (C) · 6d off
Sacramento96
Los Angeles (C)121
FINAL · we projected 111.2 – 115.5Projected total 226.7
SPREADSacramento +5.554%
OVER / UNDEROver 226.550%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Los Angeles (C) favored
OUR PICKSacramento +5.5SPREADLOSS
54%ConfidenceWe expect a closer game than the line says; Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal and Max Strus; Sacramento still gets the edge without Maxime Raynaud.
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- Los Angeles (C) has a clear edge in roster quality over Sacramento
- Los Angeles (C) gets home court
- Los Angeles (C) is the more rested team (6 days off)
OutSacramento: Maxime Raynaud (C), Dylan Cardwell (C), Ben Simmons (G); Los Angeles (C): Brandon Ingram (F), Bradley Beal (G), Max Strus (G), Jordan Miller (G), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (C)
PLAYER PROPS
- Derrick Jones Jr.Under 1.5 steals79%WIN
- Domantas SabonisUnder 0.5 blocks79%WIN
- Keegan MurrayUnder 1.5 blocks79%WIN
2 more props
- Brook LopezUnder 1.5 blocks77%WIN
- Kris DunnUnder 1.5 threes made76%LOSS
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Sacramento is without Maxime Raynaud
- Los Angeles (C) is without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal and Max Strus
- Recent games: Sacramento 0-5, Los Angeles (C) 2-1 over their last five
Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET
Minnesota131
Miami106
FINAL · we projected 114.8 – 115.9Projected total 230.7
SPREADMinnesota +1.551%
OVER / UNDERUnder 240.570%
The % is our chance that read is right.
Win chance · Miami favored
OUR PICKMinnesota +1.5SPREADWIN
51%ConfidenceMinnesota has the stronger roster on paper; Minnesota still gets the edge without Donte DiVincenzo.
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- Miami and Minnesota are closely matched on paper
- Miami gets home court
- Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo
OutMinnesota: Donte DiVincenzo (G)
PLAYER PROPS
- LaMelo BallUnder 1.5 steals75%LOSS
- Bam AdebayoUnder 1.5 steals75%LOSS
- Anthony EdwardsUnder 1.5 steals73%LOSS
2 more props
- Jaden McDanielsUnder 1.5 threes made71%WIN
- Rudy GobertUnder 1.5 blocks68%WIN
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Recent games: Minnesota 2-3, Miami 3-2 over their last five
- Miami is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo
- We like Minnesota getting the points: we expect a closer game than the line says