SUNDAY OCT 18 graded picks
Went 5-5 on the day
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Pittsburgh20.1
–
19.2Tampa Bay
SPREAD
Tampa Bay +2.5
56% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 38.5
52% chance to hit
We expect Pittsburgh to win a close one, with the game landing over the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh
@
Tampa Bay
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKTampa Bay +2.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like Tampa Bay more than the betting line does; home field for Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay is better rested.
FINAL
Pittsburgh 26 · Tampa Bay 19
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- We make Pittsburgh the more likely winner (54%), projecting about 20-19 (Pittsburgh 20, Tampa Bay 19).
- Overall we rank Tampa Bay 21st and Pittsburgh 13th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Total, model read: Over 38.5
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Pittsburgh is 4-2 (L W W in last 3), 22.8 points for and 21.3 against per game.
- Tampa Bay is 1-5 (L W L in last 3), 19.8 points for and 23.0 against per game.
- Tampa Bay has the rest edge (10 days vs 7).
- Total, model read
- Over 38.5
- Out
- Pittsburgh: D. Allar (QB), W. Howard (QB), E. Heidenreich (RB), B. Skowronek (WR), K. Jobity Jr. (DT), D. Kent (CB), S. Murphy-Bunting (CB), T. Smith (CB), and 9 more · Tampa Bay: B. Mayfield (QB), S. Tucker (RB), A. Winfield Jr. (S), D. Sills V (WR), J. McMillan (WR), M. Kamara (LB), J. Hayes (CB)
Input quality (not a win chance)84
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Houston20.4
–
23Jacksonville
SPREAD
Jacksonville +2.5
70% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 42.5
52% chance to hit
We expect Jacksonville to win a close one, with the game landing over the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET
Houston
@
Jacksonville
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKJacksonville +2.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like Jacksonville more than the betting line does; neutral site, so no home field.
FINAL
Houston 34 · Jacksonville 31
✗ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- We make Jacksonville the more likely winner (60%), projecting about 20-23 (Houston 20, Jacksonville 23).
- Overall we rank Jacksonville 1st and Houston 3rd of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Total, model read: Over 42.5
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Houston is 2-4 (L W W in last 3), 24.0 points for and 23.8 against per game.
- Jacksonville is 4-2 (W W L in last 3), 25.7 points for and 17.3 against per game.
- Neutral site, so no home-field edge for either side.
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Total, model read
- Over 42.5
Input quality (not a win chance)77
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Tennessee18.2
–
24.5Indianapolis
OVER / UNDER
Under 43.5
52% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Indianapolis, with the game landing under the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee
@
Indianapolis
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKUnder 43.5
TOTAL · MODEL READ
Our scoring read for this matchup is below the betting total.
FINAL
Tennessee 26 · Indianapolis 20
✗ Moneyline✗ Total
- We make Indianapolis the more likely winner (74%), projecting about 18-24 (Tennessee 18, Indianapolis 24).
- Tennessee is 1-5 (L L W in last 3), 14.0 points for and 21.5 against per game.
Out: Tennessee: N. Singleton (RB), K. Granson (TE), B. Crenshaw-Dickson (OT), J. Marshall (DT), J. Elliott (DT), A. Taylor (CB), K. Winston Jr. (S), J. Kanak (TE), and 7 more · Indianapolis: R. Leonard (QB), A. Dulin (WR), T. Warren (TE), D. Tucker (G), J. Carlies (LB), A. Pierce (WR), D. Montgomery (WR), C. Towt (TE), and 3 more
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Indianapolis is 2-4 (W L L in last 3), 24.0 points for and 27.3 against per game.
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Out
- Tennessee: N. Singleton (RB), K. Granson (TE), B. Crenshaw-Dickson (OT), J. Marshall (DT), J. Elliott (DT), A. Taylor (CB), K. Winston Jr. (S), J. Kanak (TE), and 7 more · Indianapolis: R. Leonard (QB), A. Dulin (WR), T. Warren (TE), D. Tucker (G), J. Carlies (LB), A. Pierce (WR), D. Montgomery (WR), C. Towt (TE), and 3 more
Input quality (not a win chance)77
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Arizona19.1
–
31.1Los Angeles (R)
SPREAD
Arizona +12.5
52% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 51.5
54% chance to hit
We expect Los Angeles (R) to win in a blowout, with the game landing under the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET
Arizona
@
Los Angeles (R)
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKArizona +12.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Arizona more than the betting line does.
FINAL
Arizona 18 · Los Angeles (R) 16
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- We make Los Angeles (R) the more likely winner (88%), projecting about 19-31 (Arizona 19, Los Angeles (R) 31).
- Overall we rank Arizona 19th and Los Angeles (R) 9th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Out: Arizona: C. Beck (QB), J. Love (RB), T. Reiman (TE), A. Billings (DT), S. Thomas V (CB), A. Wingard (S), J. Reed II (S), W. Williams Jr. (S), and 11 more · Los Angeles (R): T. Simpson (QB), C. Daniels (WR), T. Atwell (WR), B. Murray (G), L. Murchison (DE), T. McDuffie (CB), M. Caldwell (QB), R. Rivers (RB), and 6 more
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Arizona is 2-4 (L L W in last 3), 21.0 points for and 29.7 against per game.
- Los Angeles (R) is 2-4 (W L L in last 3), 22.5 points for and 23.0 against per game.
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Out
- Arizona: C. Beck (QB), J. Love (RB), T. Reiman (TE), A. Billings (DT), S. Thomas V (CB), A. Wingard (S), J. Reed II (S), W. Williams Jr. (S), and 11 more · Los Angeles (R): T. Simpson (QB), C. Daniels (WR), T. Atwell (WR), B. Murray (G), L. Murchison (DE), T. McDuffie (CB), M. Caldwell (QB), R. Rivers (RB), and 6 more
Input quality (not a win chance)75
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Dallas26.8
–
25.7Green Bay
SPREAD
Green Bay +1.5
52% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 53.5
53% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Dallas by a hair, with the game landing under the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET
Dallas
@
Green Bay
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKGreen Bay +1.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Green Bay more than the betting line does; home field for Green Bay.
FINAL
Dallas 13 · Green Bay 23
✗ Moneyline✓ Spread✓ Total
- We make Dallas the more likely winner (54%), projecting about 27-26 (Dallas 27, Green Bay 26).
- Green Bay's offense ranks 7th of 32 against a 26th-ranked Dallas defense.
Total, model read: Under 53.5
Loud stadium for visiting teams
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Dallas is 2-4 (W L L in last 3), 25.2 points for and 26.5 against per game.
- Green Bay is 4-2 (W W W in last 3), 21.2 points for and 20.8 against per game.
- Dallas has the rest edge (10 days vs 7).
- Total, model read
- Under 53.5
- Out
- Dallas: D. Shelton (OT), D. Overshown (LB), C. Durant (CB), M. Davis (RB), D. Rogers (TE), P. Fant (TE), M. Hennessy (C), J. Bullard (DT), and 5 more · Green Bay: J. Jacobs (RB), L. Musgrave (TE), A. Banks (G), D. Jennings (G), J. Burton (C), M. Parsons (DE), J. Riley (DT), B. St-Juste (CB), and 11 more
Input quality (not a win chance)72
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Buffalo28.7
–
23.8Las Vegas
SPREAD
Las Vegas +6
55% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 53.5
53% chance to hit
We expect Buffalo to win comfortably, with the game landing under the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo
@
Las Vegas
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKLas Vegas +6
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Las Vegas more than the betting line does; home field for Las Vegas.
FINAL
Buffalo 33 · Las Vegas 30
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- We make Buffalo the more likely winner (69%), projecting about 29-24 (Buffalo 29, Las Vegas 24).
- Overall we rank Las Vegas 12th and Buffalo 2nd of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Total, model read: Under 53.5
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Buffalo is 5-1 (L W W in last 3), 32.8 points for and 28.5 against per game.
- Las Vegas is 3-3 (L L L in last 3), 27.0 points for and 27.0 against per game.
- Total, model read
- Under 53.5
- Out
- Buffalo: T. Shavers (WR), D. Strong (CB), Z. Durant (DT), J. Hancock (CB) · Las Vegas: T. Hemingway (DT), C. Collier (RB), C. Rucker (WR), D. Thornton Jr. (WR), J. Bech (WR), C. Runyon (TE), J. Pickett (G), K. Crawford (DE), and 2 more
Input quality (not a win chance)71
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
New Orleans23.2
–
22.6New York (G)
SPREAD
New York (G) +1.5
54% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 46.5
52% chance to hit
We expect New Orleans to win a close one, with the game landing under the total.
TOP PICKSun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans
@
New York (G)
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNew York (G) +1.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like New York (G) more than the betting line does; home field for New York (G).
FINAL
New Orleans 34 · New York (G) 27
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- We make New Orleans the more likely winner (52%), projecting about 23-23 (New Orleans 23, New York (G) 23).
- Overall we rank New York (G) 15th and New Orleans 22nd of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Total, model read: Under 46.5
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- New Orleans is 2-4 (L L W in last 3), 25.3 points for and 29.7 against per game.
- New York (G) is 3-2-1 (W T L in last 3), 22.7 points for and 23.3 against per game.
- Total, model read
- Under 46.5
- Out
- New Orleans: Z. Wilson (QB), M. Tipton (WR), N. Saldiveri (OT), J. Ridgeway III (DT), N. Shepherd (DT), A. Jennings (LB), K. Elliss (LB), M. Reid (CB), and 9 more · New York (G): T. Johnson (TE), C. Hood (CB), T. Nubin (S), J. Dart (QB), B. Berrios (WR), C. Austin III (WR), G. Olszewski (WR), C. Golston (DE), and 7 more
Input quality (not a win chance)67
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Baltimore21.9
–
18.7Cleveland
OVER / UNDER
Over 39.5
53% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Baltimore, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore
@
Cleveland
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKOver 39.5
TOTAL · MODEL READ
Our scoring read for this matchup is above the betting total.
FINAL
Baltimore 10 · Cleveland 13
✗ Moneyline✗ Total
- We make Baltimore the more likely winner (63%), projecting about 22-19 (Baltimore 22, Cleveland 19).
- Baltimore is 4-2 (W W L in last 3), 26.0 points for and 22.0 against per game.
Out: Baltimore: L. Jackson (QB), E. Sarratt (WR), M. Hibner (TE), A. Vorhees (G), C. Jurgens (C), B. Washington Jr. (DT), K. Wallace (CB), S. Thompson (QB), and 8 more · Cleveland: T. Green (QB), Q. Judkins (RB), J. Royer (TE), T. Jenkins (G), P. Brailsford (C), M. Graham (DT), M. Hall Jr. (DT), J. Owusu-Koramoah (LB), and 9 more
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Cleveland is 4-2 (W L W in last 3), 17.7 points for and 20.3 against per game.
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Out
- Baltimore: L. Jackson (QB), E. Sarratt (WR), M. Hibner (TE), A. Vorhees (G), C. Jurgens (C), B. Washington Jr. (DT), K. Wallace (CB), S. Thompson (QB), and 8 more · Cleveland: T. Green (QB), Q. Judkins (RB), J. Royer (TE), T. Jenkins (G), P. Brailsford (C), M. Graham (DT), M. Hall Jr. (DT), J. Owusu-Koramoah (LB), and 9 more
Input quality (not a win chance)69
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Chicago25.6
–
24.7Atlanta
SPREAD
Atlanta +1.5
53% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Under 51.5
53% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Chicago by a hair, with the game landing under the total.
Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago
@
Atlanta
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKAtlanta +1.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like Atlanta more than the betting line does; home field for Atlanta.
FINAL
Chicago 31 · Atlanta 23
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✗ Total
- We make Chicago the more likely winner (54%), projecting about 26-25 (Chicago 26, Atlanta 25).
- Overall we rank Atlanta 11th and Chicago 8th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Total, model read: Under 51.5
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Chicago is 4-2 (W L W in last 3), 25.0 points for and 19.8 against per game.
- Atlanta is 2-4 (W L L in last 3), 23.7 points for and 25.5 against per game.
- Total, model read
- Under 51.5
- Out
- Chicago: K. Monangai (RB), K. Elliott (LB), T. Edwards (LB), A. Johnson Jr. (S), B. Brown (RB), H. Large (TE), N. Kalinic (TE), B. Jones (OT), and 6 more · Atlanta: S. Norton (OT), A. Thompson (DT), D. Malone (LB), C. Henderson (CB), T. Sermon (RB), B. Collins (WR), C. Williams (OL), D. Hand (DT), and 3 more
Input quality (not a win chance)65
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
New York (J)17.8
–
25.8New England
SPREAD
New England -7.5
52% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 43.5
50% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean New England, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
New York (J)
@
New England
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKNew England -7.5
SPREADLOSS
Our team ratings like New England more than the betting line does; New York (J) has more key players out; home field for New England.
FINAL
New York (J) 19 · New England 26
✓ Moneyline✗ Spread✓ Total
- We make New England the more likely winner (79%), projecting about 18-26 (New York (J) 18, New England 26).
- Overall we rank New England 5th and New York (J) 23rd of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Out: New York (J): B. Hall (RB), A. Mitchell (WR), D. Parham (G), J. Ossai (DE), T. Baron (DE), J. Heflin (DT), N. Wright (CB), C. Trayanum (RB), and 8 more · New England: H. Landry III (LB), C. Davis III (CB), K. Prunty (CB), M. Montgomery (RB), J. Webb (WR), M. Hollins (WR), J. Hill (TE), M. Bryant (OT), and 7 more
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- New York (J) is 2-4 (L W L in last 3), 18.7 points for and 20.3 against per game.
- New England is 4-2 (W W W in last 3), 22.7 points for and 18.8 against per game.
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Out
- New York (J): B. Hall (RB), A. Mitchell (WR), D. Parham (G), J. Ossai (DE), T. Baron (DE), J. Heflin (DT), N. Wright (CB), C. Trayanum (RB), and 8 more · New England: H. Landry III (LB), C. Davis III (CB), K. Prunty (CB), M. Montgomery (RB), J. Webb (WR), M. Hollins (WR), J. Hill (TE), M. Bryant (OT), and 7 more
Input quality (not a win chance)64
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Carolina22
–
18.5Philadelphia
SPREAD
Carolina -3
52% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 39.5
53% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Carolina, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Carolina
@
Philadelphia
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKCarolina -3
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Carolina more than the betting line does; Philadelphia's starting QB is out; Carolina is better rested.
FINAL
Carolina 25 · Philadelphia 14
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- We make Carolina the more likely winner (64%), projecting about 22-18 (Carolina 22, Philadelphia 18).
- Carolina's offense ranks 8th of 32 against a 22nd-ranked Philadelphia defense.
Total, model read: Over 39.5
Loud stadium for visiting teams
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Carolina is 3-2 (L W W in last 3), 29.2 points for and 24.6 against per game.
- Philadelphia is 2-4 (L L L in last 3), 17.7 points for and 22.8 against per game.
- Carolina has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
- Total, model read
- Over 39.5
- Out
- Carolina: H. King (QB), A. Dillon (RB), J. Sanders (TE), A. Reese IV (OT), I. Ekwonu (OT), M. Freeling (OT), T. Simpkins III (G), T. Edwards (DT), and 9 more · Philadelphia: J. Milton III (QB), S. Barkley (RB), H. Brown (WR), L. Johnson (OT), A. Epenesa (DE), J. Hunt (LB), M. Carter II (CB), T. Large (S), and 9 more
Input quality (not a win chance)63
OUR PROJECTED SCORE
Los Angeles (C)16.6
–
25Kansas City
SPREAD
Kansas City -8.5
50% chance to cover
OVER / UNDER
Over 41.5
50% chance to hit
Toss-up: we lean Kansas City, with the game landing over the total.
Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles (C)
@
Kansas City
Win chance · our model
OUR PICKKansas City -8.5
SPREADWIN
Our team ratings like Kansas City more than the betting line does; Los Angeles (C) has more key players out; home field for Kansas City; Kansas City is better rested.
FINAL
Los Angeles (C) 6 · Kansas City 22
✓ Moneyline✓ Spread✗ Total
- We make Kansas City the more likely winner (80%), projecting about 17-25 (Los Angeles (C) 17, Kansas City 25).
- Overall we rank Kansas City 6th and Los Angeles (C) 25th of 32, which is closer than the betting line says.
Out: Los Angeles (C): T. Harris (WR), I. World (OT), J. Alt (OT), K. Awosika (G), B. Dupree (LB), D. Jackson (CB), R. Shelley (CB), D. James Jr. (S), and 8 more · Kansas City: R. Rice (WR), J. Simmons (OT), O. Norman-Lott (DT), J. Caldwell (WR), J. Holiday (WR), T. Thornton (WR), J. Michael Gyllenborg (TE), M. Waletzko (OT), and 2 more
One of the loudest stadiums in pro football
Full breakdown
MORE REASONS
- Los Angeles (C) is 0-6 (L L L in last 3), 15.0 points for and 25.2 against per game.
- Kansas City is 5-0 (W W W in last 3), 28.0 points for and 16.6 against per game.
- Kansas City has the rest edge (14 days vs 7).
- Divisional game, so these teams know each other well.
- Out
- Los Angeles (C): T. Harris (WR), I. World (OT), J. Alt (OT), K. Awosika (G), B. Dupree (LB), D. Jackson (CB), R. Shelley (CB), D. James Jr. (S), and 8 more · Kansas City: R. Rice (WR), J. Simmons (OT), O. Norman-Lott (DT), J. Caldwell (WR), J. Holiday (WR), T. Thornton (WR), J. Michael Gyllenborg (TE), M. Waletzko (OT), and 2 more
Input quality (not a win chance)63