The Philadelphia Phillies are in a big playoff push for the first time in years, currently 3rd in the NL east and 9 games above .500. The trade deadline featured many game changing moves but the biggest came by way of the Washington Nationals trading away superstars Jaun Soto to the Padres. It is clear that the Nationals are now in full rebuild mode, despite this they aim to stop the Phillies from taking 3 in a row as the two teams meet for the 3rd game in a 4-game series Saturday night. Here is my complete prediction and breakdown.
Phillies Playing Well, but Need More Wins
The Philadelphia Phillies have put together a much better season this year compared to last but still find themselves 10 games behind the New York Mets. The teams motivations are high and they are playing their best baseball of the season. The team is 8-2 in their last 10 games and in those scoring an average of 4.98 runs per game, hitting a combined .263 and posting 1.1 homers per game.
One of the biggest revelations for the Phillies has been 3rd basemen Alec Bohm who’s managed to launch out a begging hitting slump. In July Bohm hit a .434 batting average, 3 home runs, 14 RBI’s and 15 runs (in 20 games). Whilst losing reigning MVP Bryce Harper to a thumb injury is devastating the Phillies are still playing well. Kyle Schwarber has found his form hitting 34 homers and 67 RBI’s on the season. The Phillies also made solid moves at the deadline proving their commitment to the team and making the playoffs.
Taking the mound for the Phillies in this one is left-hander Ranger Suarez. Posting a 7-5 record on the season Suarez has seen mixed results, overall he has a 3.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 80 K’s over 95 innings of work. Whilst none of this number standout the young pitcher is finding his groove allowing 3 runs combined in his last 3 starts, each of those with 4 or less hits. The bullpen of the Phillies is still a bit of question but for the season they are posting a league 10th 3.84 ERA. You can expect Suarez to go roughly 6 innings deep in this game, bode all goes well.
Nats Enter Rebuild
The Washington Nationals are 31 games out of first place and just traded two of their best players to the Padres. At the plate, Washington is scoring 3.94 runs per game and they are hitting .248 as a team. This is the 26th least amount of runs scored per game and the 11th highest overall team batting average. They have shown that they can make contact with the ball and consistently reach base, but they have struggled to drive in men when they are in scoring position, which is now even worse after losing Soto and Bell.
The Nationals offence is nothing to boast about but neither is their defence. In the field, they are currently allowing 5.61 runs per game and they have the 25th lowest overall team fielding percentage. As a team they are throwing a league 30th in ERA with 5.17 and allowing a league 29th 5.4 runs per game.
Taking the mound for this one is Patrick Corbin, the leftie is having a rough season. Coming into this game he is posting a 4-15 record over 109.2 innings of play, a 6.57 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Despite this he has managed to strike out 102 batters. Corbin has allowed 4+ runs in 5 consecutive games and allowed 9 runs on 8 hits in his last outing against the Phillies.
The Washington Nationals are scoring the 26th least amount of runs per game and they are allowing the most runs per game when they are in the field. They struggle on both sides of the field and the Phillies are going to take advantage. Ranger Suarez is pitching his best stuff of the season and no-one on the Nationals should pose a threat to him. Take the Phillies to cover the line in this one.
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Thanks for reading, Dave Covers Spreads