The Dave Covers Spreads Blog: NBA Round 1 Lessons

The Dave Covers Spreads Blog: NBA Round 1 Lessons

In this week’s blog we have basketball, basketball and more basketball. The first round playoff series have been amazing so far and we have so much too unpack and go over as we continue to learn how to handicap this year’s playoffs.


Dave Covers Spreads

Written: Monday 18 April 2022                       Read Time: 5 Min


Phoenix vs New Orleans: God Mode Activated

I want to start with Chris Paul. We are not talking about this enough. Chris Paul completely took over the 4th Quarter of game 1 of the Suns Pelicans series and it was truly magical. Let me set the scene. The Pelicans barely got over 30 points in the first HALF before Phoenix let them crawl all the way back from down 23 to down 8 (79-71) entering the 4th. Then came point god. CP3 scored 19 of his 30 total points in the 4th quarter, he assisted or scored on 23 of the Suns 31 points in the 4th including scoring 19 in a row. He also become the oldest player to score 30+ points and 10+ assists in a playoff game at age 36!

The entire Suns team looked amazing and I am still confident in my Suns to Win the West future play (given out free). I expect this team to completely roll NOLA, most likely with a round one sweep. For our play on the game we took Devin Booker to score 25+ points and Phoenix to win, which resulted in a nice win for our clients.

EDIT: Added section here to the blog, Devin Booker scored an incredible 31 points in the first half of game 2 before exiting the game with a hamstring issue mid way through the third quarter. According to reports it doesn’t look like he will be returning for game 3 or 4. The series is tied 1-1 heading to New Orleans, if I were a Phoenix fan (or heavily invested in Suns futures, which I am) I wouldn’t be too worried. It isn’t the worst thing giving Booker some rest, and the team should be able to take care of the Pelicans without him. 


Philadelphia vs Toronto: Too Much Star Power

Going into the series between the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors everyone had this delusional outlook that Toronto actually stood a chance. I mean I can see how inexperienced bettors might get this pick, just by looking at the regular season games between these teams you might consider that Toronto could actually upset Philly in the first round. What many people fail to see however is that the Playoffs are a different animal all together. Time goes slow in the playoffs, which really benefits teams like the Sixers who have great isolation and playmakers in James Harden and Joel Embiid. Now, I did talk about how I don’t think James Harden is a top 20 player in his current form in last week’s blog (read here), I still agree with this take but he played really well in the point guard role in game 1 and 2. Maxey is unbelievable and they really got a gem with the 21st pick in the draft there. It really feels like the Sixers have the best 3 players in the series (because they do) and in the playoffs “Star Power” is overwhelming. The Raptors are a good team and have played really well this season, they just don’t have “that guy” that can win them a series. Overall, I am still confident in my pick of the Sixers to win this series and move onto the next round, most likely in 5.



Minnesota vs Memphis: Edwards taking the leap?

What a game one, and I am saying this as someone who took Memphis to cover the spread. I am actually finding it really difficult to dissect game one of this series, I am writing this before game two has happened and I honestly can see it going one of two ways. Before we get into that however, I want to mention Anthony Edwards. The Ant man is amazing, he can shoot, he is super-fast and athletics and I can really see him being an MVP calibre player. It is rally worth of note to watch Edwards because something amazing could be happening right before us. In game one Edwards scored 36 points on 52% and 36% shooting splits all whilst playing good defence and dishing out 6 dimes. Okay now, let’s get into the scenario game.

Scenario 1: Edwards Take Off

If the Wolves are to win the series it has to come through Edwards. The way he has looked in the play-in games as well as game one, it isn’t ridiculous to say that Edwards will average 30ppg for this series. You can tell from his post-game interviews he is a confidence guy, and he is playing with an un-matched level of confidence right now. I see something really special in Edwards and I think he will be a big part of this series. In this scenario I see it going all seven games and the decider will come down to how good Edwards and Morant are in game seven.

Scenario 2: Just a slip

In this scenario, which at heart is what I want to believe. I love this Memphis team and I love Morant. Game one was scary if you are a Memphis fan. Adams basically got played off the floor, Morant scored 32 and shot 20 free throws and Memphis still lost. However, I can see Grizzlies getting back to their 15 deep roster and figuring out certain matchups to exploit. The Wolves cool down and Morant averages 30ppg. In this case I see Memphis winning in 6. 


EDIT: Memphis wins game 2, this is the team we saw in the regular season. Memphis is winning this series in 5 or 6 games. 


I hope you enjoyed reading this weeks blog, I plan on doing these once a week to start (each Wednesday) where I go around sharing my thoughts and opinions on some of the hottest topics in sports. If you enjoyed reading this or have any comments or opinions feel free to reach out to me on  Instagram and Twitter. 

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Thanks for reading, Dave Covers Spreads. 


Last Week on the Dave Covers Spreads Blog

  1. NBA: Is James Harden a Top 20 Player?
  2. NBA: NBA Playoff Betting Preview 
  3. PGA: Masters Recap
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