BOWLING GREEN vs TENNESSEE
Dave Covers Spreads, NCAAF FREE PICKS
Opening Lines: Tennessee -32.5, Total: 61.0
The Tennessee Volunteers will his the Bowling Green State Falcons in both teams first game of the season. Last season the Bowling Green only face teams from the Mid-American conference in which they went 0-5. Tennessee had a SEC-only schedule and went 3-7.
It has been a rough few years for Bowling Green, coach Scott Loeffler is taking charge for his 3rd season (3-14 record). The team has gown 12-41 since 2015, and things are not looking any better. With roster changes it is hard to look at last years results with 100% confidence but Bowling Green has some eye opening stats. The team average only 11.4 points per game, 142 passing yards and 184 rushing yards. For the starting QB, senior Matt Mcdonald will most likely take charge. Mcdonald struggled last season with a completion rate of just 43.9%, just one touchdown and seven interceptions, as well as 712 yards.
Just when you think that things cannot get any worse for Bowling Green we take a look at their offense. They allowed an insane 45 points, 310 rushing yards and 165 passing yards on average each game in their 5 game season last year. As I mentioned before roster changes make it hard to rely on last years statistics, but not in this case. Roster changes actually make these stats even more pealing as Bowling Green lost three of their top 4 tackers.
If we switch our attention to Tennessee things are looking better in game they could use to gather some real momentum into the season. The club fired Jeremy Pruitt in the offseason (16-19 record in three seasons with the team) and gave the Head Coaching job to Josh Heupel (Josh was runner up for 2000 Heisman Trophy). Head Coaches mean a lot in college football and Heupel is a good one, he is coming off a 28-8 record as Head Coach of the UCF Knights and will look to continue that record going here. As well as Heupel, Alex Golesh came with him from UCF to be Tennessee’s new offensive coordinator. This is a big upgrade for the team and will definitely show on the offensive end.
My starter for Tennessee would be junior Joe Milton III, who spent three seasons with Michigan State and played in six Big Ten games, completing 56.7%, 1077 yards, 4 TD’s and 4 INT. Tennessee also has some good weapons in their Wide Receivers. Senior Velus Jones Jr. caught 22 passes for 280 yards and 3 TD’s whilst sophomore Jallin Hyatt had 276 Yards in 20 catches with 2 TD’s. Although we didn’t get to see much last year because of Covid I also expect Tennessee to have a strong running game, especially from Tiyon Evans who was rated the No. 1 junior college running back.
This is an easy win for Tennessee but the money line is untouchable. So we turn our attention the other markets available.
As of writing this the total is set at +/- 60.5. That is a large number and one Tennessee might be able to get on their own. They have a new Head Coach and new offensive coordinator and will be looking to make a statement against a weak team in Bowling Green. The only problem here is I don’t think Bowling Green will be able to contribute to this number, to be honest, I don’t think they can score at all.
Pick: Under +60.5
Notable Bet: Bowling Green solo under +12.5
My Free Pick:
This should be a blowout game and I am willing to back. Take the clearly better team, at home, to take full advantage of an easy week one matchup. Winning by up to 40-50 points.
Pick: Tennessee -35.5
Who is Dave Covers Spreads?
Dave has been analysing sports professionally for over 10 years, from NBA to college football he does it all. With a lifetime record of 67% he knows what he is talking about. Premium clients are making bank following his analytics, get it here