We have another great matchup for Thursday Night Football as the defending Super Bowl Champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the salary cap defeated Philadelphia Eagles.
The line opened up at Tampa Bay -7.0 and a total of over/under +51.5. As for the spread the number has stayed right at 7. This could tell us a few things, especially when you look at who the public is betting in this matchup. The public is all over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers as they are receding 94% of the money and 91% of the bets. If you look at the fact that this much money is being bought into the Buccaneers and the line hasn’t moved at all. The bookmakers need the Eagles to cover the spread and believe 7 is the correct number. So if betting against the public is something you are interested in, consider laying the points with the Eagles in this one.
Key Betting Trends:
- Over is 4-0 in the Buccaneers last 4 games accumulating over 350 total yards in the previous game
- Over is 10-1 in the Buccaneers last 11 games following a win by 14 or more points
- Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thursday night games
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
- Over is 5-0 in the Eagles last 5 Week 6 games
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the teams
- The underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings
Philadelphia Eagles Breakdown:
The Philadelphia Eagles managed to snap a 3 game loosing streak as they took down the Carolina Panthers last week 21-18. The main story of last weeks win was the Eagles defense. They managed to fight back from the 15-3 deficit they found themselves in shortly before half time. With the final game winning drive coming from a blocked punt and Jalen Hurts running it in himself with 2;30 on the clock. The defense kept the Panthers away and managed to keep the win sealed for Philadelphia.
This year the Eagles are 12th in passing offense, which overall isn’t actually that bad when their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, has a very established run game and many people questioned his ability to move the ball through the air. They are also 13th in rushing offense this season, good for 116.4 yards per game. Jalen Hurts actually leads the team I’m rushing, with 43 carries good for 256 yards.
Overall the Eagles have had a mixed first 5 weeks of the season. Rookie wide receiver Devonta Smith has shown some good sparks and Hurts has also had some really good moments. Their is definitely potential in the Eagles future. The biggest problem they face in this matchup is going up against the Buccaneers rush defense, which is good for 1st in the NFL with 45.8 yards per game. This will mean Jalen Hurts will have to move the ball downfield in the air. Which he has shown he can do, but not always with consistency.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Breakdown:
Tampa Bay punished Miami in their last game, shaking off all the rust from Tom Brady’s return to New England. The team defeated the dolphins 45-17 and moved to 4-1 ATS on the season. The biggest highlight of this game was the fact that 44 year old Tom Brady threw his first, yes that’s right, his first game of 400+ yards and 5+ touchdowns. The team had 508 yards of total offense last week and truly showed how dominate they can be on the ground and through the air.
A major issue for the Buccaneers is their depleted secondary. So they will have to lean on their offense in this one. Whilst that shouldn’t be a problem, the Eagles do have the 3rd highest rated passing defense with just 194.8 yards per game. You will most likely see the Eagles defense drop back and play zone against this Buccaneers team, which historically Tom Brady had had no issues dealing with. With one of the highest pass rates, and for good reason (they have Tom Brady), expect to see the Buccaneers move the ball well against this Eagles team despite what the numbers might indicate.
Finding angles in the prop market:
For this game we are looking for over props. With high scoring, and lots of movement we expect this game to be battled out through the air. We expect both QB’s to rack up the pass attempts, expect Hurts to stick to what he knows and that is Devonta Smith, consider his over +5.5 receptions.
My final thoughts on this game, and what to consider when betting. The Eagles have seemed to fully commit to Jalen Hurts play style, and it looks like it’s getting better every game. It’s always hard to bet against a team that is 4-1 ATS and led by the greatest quarterback of all time. But I expect both teams to have success in this matchup and pass the ball majority of the time. This is a key angle in leaning towards the over. With 94% of the public on Tampa Bay, consider what the bookmakers need to win. Consider the home team to cover the spread, and for the game to feature plenty of scoring.