One of the more interesting teams of this MLB season the Philadelphia Phillies are taking on one of the league’s best, the San Diego Padres in a 4-game series starting Thursday. Whilst most teams are finishing up a series on this day, the unorthodox schedule favours the Padres, as they get to remain home and welcome the Phillies to PETCO Park. The Padres have played well this season posting a 44-27 record good for 2nd in the NL West, the Phillies on the other hand were one of the most exciting teams coming into the season with their potential devastating line-up are just 36-34 for 3rd in the NL East. Both teams have found their rhythm, but who takes game 1? Here is my complete prediction and breakdown.
Half Strength Padres Still on Top
The San Diego Padres are one of the best teams in baseball this season, and they are doing all of this without potential MVP shortstop, Fernando Tatis JR who is yet to play a game this season. The Padres are coming into this matchup with a 3-game win streak after sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks scoring a total of 17 runs in three games, 10 of which came in on the series finale. Surprisingly they put up these numbers without third baseman Manny Machado who leads the team with 46 RBI’s and 12 home runs. He is having an All-Star season posting .328 batting average, .400 OBP, .545 SLG and .945 OPS. The latest news on Manny indicates he will remain day-to-day so we could potentially see him return for this game.
Even without him the Padres can put up runs, and fast. Nomar Mazara, Jorge Alfaro and Eric Hosmer are all batting above .270 for the season and Jake Cronenworth has already snagged 41 RBI’s. The Padres are handing the ball to Ace, Joe Musgrove in this game who is having a terrific season. Coming into this matchup he is posting a 8-0 record over 79 innings of work, with a 1.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Musgrove is coming off the Covid-19 reserve list but reports say he is ready to start.
Another .500 Phillies Season
The news coming into this season was all great for the Phillies with off-season acquisitions such as Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos joining MVP Bryce Harper. The team has had some big scoring games, but as we anticipated their pitching staff has limited their wins. The team is coming into this one on a 3 game losing streak, including losing two in Texas to the Rangers. Unfortunately for the Phillies their road trip continues with a stop in San Diego.
As a team the Phillies are playing well offensively, posting a combined batting average of .248 (T 11th) and averaging 4.8 runs per game (T 5th). Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 19 home runs on the season, as well as 39 RBI’s. Bryce Harper leads the team with 48 RBI’s, including 21 doubles and a staggering 46 walks. The biggest problem for the Phillies is their pitching. Whilst starters like Nola and Wheeler are playing well their arm-barn is struggling. The team is allowing 4.4 runs per game, 20th in the MLB and is pitching a combined ERA of 3.95 (17th). Over their last 5 games the Phillies relievers are pitching a 6.00 ERA, with an opponent batting average of .270. If they want to win this game they are going to need great pitching from their relief staff.
Starting for the Phillies is leftie Ranger Suarez, who has had some up and down starts this season. His record coming into this matchup is 5-4 over 65 innings of work. With a 4.43 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Suarez gets hit, over his last 5 starts he has allowed a total 27 hits (5.4 per game), and in those starts he has allowed 3 or more runs 3 times. Whilst he has shown some good outings, against this dangerous Padres line-up he could find himself in trouble.
Early Taking
There is a clear pitching mismatch in this game between Musgrove and Suarez. Whilst I like the Phillies offense, I don’t think they will able to score enough runs on Musgrove to keep up. The Padres also rank 5th in the Majors in combined ERA, so we can’t expect the Phillies blowing this one up late. I am backing the team that hasn’t had to travel, and is on a 3 game win streak.
Take the Padres.
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Thanks for reading, Dave Covers Spreads