NFL PRO BOWL: SIDE, TOTAL, PARLAY
Dave Covers Spreads, NFL Preview, FREE PICK, and Breakdown
Whilst the NFL Pro Bowl might not mean anything to the game, it does mean another opportunity for us to make money with our betting picks.
After taking the year off last season, the NFL’s Pro Bowl is back in business and will take place this Sunday in the confines of Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium. Matt LaFleur’s NFC squad sits as 1.5-point underdogs versus Mike Vrabel’s AFC side with a total of 62.5.
The AFC has won every Pro Bowl game since 2016, last game winning 38-33, making it the first time since 2012 that any team scored more than 30 points. The main piece of note is that the NFC team has taken big hits missing some key players. This includes their best QB’s and WR’s in Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers alongside Devante Adam’s and Cooper Kupp. This is of even larger not as these games tend to be pass heavy. Last Pro Bowl saw just 24 rushed compared to 87 passes.
The AFC squad is definitely scarier than the NFC with QB’s like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert as well as star running backs like Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb. Mahomes also has Kelce and Hill to throw too and Herbert has his receiver in Allen. This definitely pushes the needle in the AFC’s favor.
Same thing goes on defense. The AFC has stars like Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, TJ Watt and Joey Bosa, whilst the NFC is without Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and tackles such as Trent Williams, Tristan Wirfs and Tyron Smith have all chosen to sit this one out.
I think it’s clear who I am taking in this matchup.
The last Pro Bowl that was played two seasons ago was a pass-fest that featured the NFC running the ball just five times with Pete Caroll calling the plays. The game featured 71 total points, 11 red-zone trips, five interceptions, 834 total yards and 7.2 yards per play. These numbers might scream Over, but hitting 63 points is no easy task.
Since 1999, the two lowest-scoring Pro Bowls have all occurred over the last four runnings. The 71-point meeting in 2020 saw a fumble and an interception returned for a TD and the six total turnovers turned into some easy points. The three Pro Bowls that proceeded the 2020 game saw final totals of 33, 47 and 33 points respectively. 2019 saw just 102 total plays and 564 total yards, 2018 had 114 plays and 564 yards while in 2017, both teams ran 127 plays but gained just 4.7 yards per play.
I don’t feel a strongly as I do about the side but so much has to go right for this over. That’s why I am taking the under.
PRO BOWL FREE PICKS
- AFC Moneyline (-118)
- Total Points Under +62.5 (-110)
- Parlay: AFC ML / Under +62.5 (+250)