Michigan State look to keep a perfect record as they head down to south beach and take on a confusing Miami football team.
Dave Covers Spreads, free NCAAF Week 3 Free Pick, Betting Guide and Prediction
Notable betting trends:
- Over is 5-0 in Michigan State’s last 5 games as an underdog
- Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs Big Ten opponents
- Miami is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games
If we look back at week one Miami got destroyed by Alabama 44-13, their next game they narrowly escaped with a victory of Appalachian State with the 25-23 victory. Quarterback D’Eriq King came into the season as a Heisman trophy candidate but so far has been disappointing. Against Appalachian State he threw just 20/33 for 200 yards and 0 touchdowns. King is not the only concern for this Miami team, the defense has now allowed over 125 rushing yards in back-to-back games. They are ranking 172nd in offensive yards with just 335 and 176th in defensive yards allowed with a huge 419.
Miami have also had some injuries that are worthy to talk about. Running Back Don Chaney, who scored a touchdown against Appalachian State, is now out with a season ending knee injury, and his backup Jaylan Knighton is still serving a two-game suspension. They are only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season and now starting line-backer Keontra Smith, who also suffered an injury, will miss the next couple of weeks.
If we turn to Michigan State, we see a team that has started off very well. Opening the year with a 38-21 win at Northwestern and then demolishing Youngstown State 42-14. They have also had sum huge plays including a 75 yard touchdown caught by Jayden Reed and a 75 yard run for a touchdown by Kenneth Walker III. Walker has rushing for 321 yards in 30 carries as well as getting 5 touchdowns, he has been unstoppable. Michigan State’s rushing game has been fantastic overall averaging 8 yards per carry.
Their rushing game is not the only thing that is appealing with quarterback Payton Thorne completing 65.2% of his passes, for 465 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is also keeping the ball, yet to throw an interception. Their offense ranks 10th in the FBS with 553 yards per game and almost 300 rushing yards per game.
I think Michigan is in a great spot here. Miami is still recovering from a tough game against Alabama and had to fight all out to get the win last week. Combined with Michigan’s promising offense and great offensive line expect them to keep this game close, if not winning outright. As noted, Miami is 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against non-conference teams, take the points here with Michigan State.
FREE PICK: Michigan State +6.5 (1U)
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