I have seen and read numerous “experts’ analysis on this game and to my surprise they are all over the Browns +5.5. The line for this game opened at Kansas City -6.0 and has dropped since to -5.5, this shows us that a lot of Sharp money is coming in on Browns +5.5. Lets break it down.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns betting picks for Sunday 12 September 2021, Dave Covers Spreads
The Cleveland Browns have been receiving a lot of hype after this offseason and for good reason. After a disappointing loss to the Chiefs despite their heroic postseason run the Browns made big moves, including improving a secondary unit that let in far too many points last season, with the additions of John Johnson, Troy Hill, and Jadeveon Clowney.
Baker Mayfield will be throwing the rock for the Browns once again and looked good last year. What is of note however is last season (not including the postseason) Baker faced the 3rd easiest schedule of pass defences. Despite this he looked good, putting together 3500 passing yards and throwing 26 touchdowns with only 8 interceptions. He should also have Odell Beckham Jr back this season which will help convert more plays for the Browns offense.
The Chiefs will be one of the best teams in the NFL once again and for good reason. They are led by arguably the best quarterback in the NFL Patrick Mahomes, he had 4740 passing yards last season all whilst throwing for 38 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. The Chiefs also fixed all their offensive line issues with the additions of Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown as well as some rookies that should help keep Mahomes protected and improve the Chiefs only weakness, their run game. But let’s be honest when you have Mahomes passing to Kelce and Hill, the running game isn’t as important.
Expect Kansas City to trust their star quarterback here and let Mahomes throw the ball, as they should. The question, can the newly improved Browns defence slow Mahomes down enough and can Baker produce enough offense to keep the Browns in the fight? I don’t think so, the new look Browns have been slightly over-talked about in my opinion. Especially in this matchup. People are remembering the narrow game (22-17) between these teams too much, Mahomes did not play a large portion of that game and the Chiefs still managed to hold on.
The Chiefs have the better team and history shows when Head Coach Andy Reid has time to prepare, he wins. In fact, the Chiefs are 6-0 in their last 6 week 1 games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4. Don’t buy too much into the hype, this needs context. Yes, the Browns will be better, but the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, they have the best quarterback, and have an improved offensive line and running game. I think the Chiefs could win it all this season and expect them to maybe has 3 losses all season. This won’t be one.
FREE PICK: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
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