Dave Covers Spreads, UFC FREE PICK: Davey Grant vs Louis Smolka
For Louis I am worried, he is a bigger guy for the division which means he cuts a lot of weight and Davey Grant has some heat in those early rounds. It also really concerns me when guys are coming off a KO loss in their last fight and Louis Smoke is coming off a pretty bad round 1 KO loss to Vince Morales, he has now been KO’d a few times in his career. If it goes to the ground he often leaves himself in bad positions os a submission is possible, but I am going with the KO. I think these guys will want to fight this one on the feet, both land some pretty good shots trading back and forth but Grant finds the big hook, and puts him away late first round. Grant has good composure, good technique, good patience and he’s got this one.
FREE PICK: Davey Grant by TKO (+102)
Dave Covers Spreads, UFC FREE Pick: Ion Cutelaba vs Ryan Spann
Superman vs the Hulk! Ryan Spann has very good power, and has shown solid flashes of really good technique. He is however a bit of an under-performer at times. For example his fight back in 2020 against Sam Alvey, he should’ve wiped the floor with Alvey but managed to make it super close winning by decision. I am going with Ion Cutelaba in this one, the grappling of Cutelaba is what I am most confident in. We have seen Spann sort of lose himself on the ground sometimes and is often exposed, Cutelaba will be able to take advantage of situations like that. Even if this fight stays on the feet I still like Cutelaba in this one, his cardio is improved I think he will simply overpower Spann, grind him up against the cage get some good shots in before getting a takedown or hitting him with a big hook and finishing him off.
FREE PICK: Ion Cutelaba (-277)
Dave Covers Spreads, UFC FREE PICK: Aleksandar Rakic vs Jan Blachowicz
People call Aleksandar Rakic “boring” but the truth is, he is really good and he wins. He is 14-2 and I think, as do many other people, he was robbed of the win against Volkan Oezdemir in 2019. If I was Rakic in this fight my game plan would be to simply chew up at the legs of Blachowicz at range. Rakic’s leg kicks are so strong and timed so perfect that Blachowicz really feels it. We saw him leg kick Santos in the first round and it pretty much completely stopped Santos. Rakic has good takedown evens, he is good at scrapping, he is just technical and patient and that’s what you need to win fights. If they are trading on the feet, Rakic will be the one controlling this whole fight. Rakic has a much longer leg reach and I think he uses this to get it done.
FREE PICK: Aleksandar Rakic (-192)
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