Dave Covers Spreads, NHL FREE PICK: Panthers vs Lightning Game 3

Dave Covers Spreads, NHL FREE PICK: Panthers vs Lightning Game 3


Dave Covers Spreads, NHL FREE PICKS: Panthers vs Lightning Game 3

The Florida Panthers may have been the best team all season long but the defending champs Tampa Bay shocked the Panthers taking both game’s 1 and 2 to start the series. With their backs against the wall can the Panthers respond with a win in Tampa?


Betting Trends: 

  • Under is 3-0-2 in Panthers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest
  • Panthers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. Atlantic
  • Under is 4-0 in Lightning last 4 Conference Semifinals games
  • Lightning are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
  • Panthers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings
  • Under is 6-2 in the last 8 Meetings 


Being down 2-0 is literally the worst result for the Panthers at this point. What is most heartbreaking is the fashion in way they lost game 2 with Ross Colton slotting one in with just three seconds left in regulation time. Now with their backs against the wall the best team in the NHL this season has to win at least one the road to survive. 


The biggest disappointment from the Panthers in the first two games is by way of the power-play. The Panthers are yet to score a power-play goal in the ENTIRE PLAYOFFS (despite having 25 chances) and that is the problem with their offensive production. They are averaging just 2.75 goals per game in the playoffs but just 1 goal per game in their second round series. 


Sergei Bobrovsky has been amazing for the Panthers so far in the playoffs. He has a .906 save percentage and is sitting a 4.3 goals saved above expected. The Panthers struggles are all offensive and they will not have any success against this Lightning team if their special teams unit continues to struggle. 


Despite some struggles this season the Tampa Bay Lightning are starting to find their game and are a real threat at going back-to-back-to-back. The Lightning are averaging 3.22 goals per game, which is a little inflated due to the Leafs series, averaging exactly 3 goals between game’s 1 and 2. 


Star goal-tender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been amazing behind the crease posting a .915 save percentage and is sitting a 6 goals saved above expected this postseason. 


I am a big believer in momentum in sports, especially in the playoffs. This is exactly what we have here. Vasilevskiy was incredible on the road and he won’t be any different at home. I expect the Panthers to continue to struggle on the power-play and won’t see many go through the goals in this one. I am taking the under but is a good note that you can currently get Panthers team total under +2.5 goals at +138. 


FREE PICK: Total Under +6.5 (1 Unit)

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