Dave Covers Spreads, NBA FREE PICK: Grizzlie Culture

Dave Covers Spreads, NBA FREE PICK: Grizzlie Culture


Dave Covers Spreads, NBA FREE PICKS


If you have NBA league pass, I highly suggest tuning into every single Memphis Grizzlies basketball game. This team is incredible. The Chemistry, the depth and young talent, the future is very bright in Memphis. But. Can they take on a team with Championship aspirations? The Golden State Warriors head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies in what should be an epic Monday matchup. 



Betting Trends: 

  • Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
  • Over is 10-2-1 in the Warriors last 13 games following a ATS loss
  • Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
  • Grizzlies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game


The Golden State Warriors are struggling right now. This is 100% correlated to Steph Curry missing time with a foot injury, but even when Curry was in the lineup they just weren’t the same as the start of the season. They are just 6-10 since the All-star game, and 21-20 since January 1st. 


They have dropped to third in the West (which shouldn’t be a concern) averaging 110.2 points per game in their last 10 games, whilst allowing 108.2 points per game to their opponents. The biggest cause for concern for the Warriors in this matchup is who will actually take the floor, besides Curry. Green, Thompson and Porter are all game-time decision for “rest”. I full expect the warriors to rest these 3 guys, hence the current line being Memphis -10.5. 


Do you want to hear a crazy stat? The Memphis Grizzlies are 17-2 WITHOUT Morant this season. Yep, you heard that right. Not only this, but they are 3rd in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating and 1st in net rating, all while Morant doesn’t play. This in no way should deter you from how good Ja Morant is. It is a true representation of how deep the Grizzlies are, as well how connected their culture is. Now I know what you’re thinking, “Dave, the Grizzlies are on a 4 game win streak, they are going to be going up against a weak warriors team, and will start slow thinking they have this game in the bag and be suddenly down 20.”

I hear you, but let me show you this. 


Memphis Grizzlies vs. a team with a winning % .500 or lower, without Morant:


WIN vs Indiana 133-103

WIN vs Brooklyn 132-120

WIN at Houston 122-98

WIN at Indiana 135-102

WIN at New Orleans W121-109

WIN at Los Angeles (Clippers) W123-108


I think it is obvious where I am going with this free pick.  I am taking the Memphis Grizzlies to win this game comfortably, but to avoid risk of Jordan Poole going for 45 and getting a back-door cover, grab the alternate spread and take Grizzlies to win by 8.5 or more. 


FREE PICK: Memphis Grizzlies -8.5 [Buy 2 points down] (1 Unit)

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