Dave Covers Spreads, FREE PICK: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks

Dave Covers Spreads, FREE PICK: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks

The NBA playoffs have been nothing short of incredible so far. Before we turn our attention to round 2 we have Miami taking on Atlanta for what could be the last game of Trae Young and the Hawks season. Can Miami continue to lock Trae down? 

It is safe to say that Miami has caused some “issues” for Trae Young so far in this round 1 matchup. There is a good video going around that shows just how the Heat are attacking Young, he goes from Tucker (a solid on ball defender, but he won’t give up), to Bam who is the perfect combo of size, athleticism and can stay infant of Trae to Butler one of the best guard defenders in the league. 

Let's take a look at Young’s box scores in the last 4 games: 



LOSS 86-110

9 Points, 5 Assists, 27.3% FG, 5 TO, (-27)

WIN 111-110

24 Points, 8 Assists, 42.9% FG, 3 TO (+5)

LOSS 115-105

25 Points, 7 Assists, 50% FG, 10 TO (-11)

LOSS 115-91

8 Points, 4 Assists, 8.3% FG, 6 TO (-22)


This series should already be over, the Heat somehow managed to blow a 14 point lead in game 2 but besides that they have been completely dominate on both sides of the ball. This isn’t all on Trae, the team has been struggling badly all series. They are averaging 98.3 points per game, 15.8 turnovers per game, 44.5% field goal and shooting just 32.7% from behind the arc. The Heat on the over hand are clicking on all levels. In this series they are 112.5 points per game, 27 assists, 12.3 turnovers, 46.8% field goal and 36.6% from 3. 


The Hawks just cannot do anything on the offense end with the way Miami’s defence is playing. Additionally, the Hawks cannot stop the Heat at all. Trae is being hunted on the defensive end and smothered on the offensive end. Sadly, if Young isn’t cooking the Hawks don’t really stand a chance. 


I am a fan of buying down numbers in the gambling space. So let me explain that quickly. The books set lines, for example in this game the Miami Heat are favoured by 7.5 points. Majority of sports books (I use online sport books, apps) allow you to move the line for adjusted odds. You can find these under tabs such as “alternate spread”. In this case, I think the line of 7.5 feels about right, but it could be Atlantas last game of the season and some last second shots could cause a Atlanta cover. With the money juiced slightly towards Atlanta we can buy the spread down 3 points bringing it to -4.5 for -179. This is great value and much safer than laying the entire 7.5 points. 


FREE PICK: Miami Heat -4.5 [Buy 3 points down]

Back to blog