Dave Covers Spreads, FREE PICK: Clipping the Wolves

Dave Covers Spreads, FREE PICK: Clipping the Wolves



Dave Covers Spreads, NBA FREE PICK 


We are finally here! The 2022 Playoffs are right around the corner and that means it is time for the high stakes, win or go home play-in games. The Los Angeles Clippers survived their injury riddled season and landed themselves in the play-in game against the up and coming Minnesota Timberwolves. Can Paul George lead this team back to the Western Conference Finals? Or will Karl-Anthony Towns and the Wolves stop them from even making the playoffs? 


Key Betting Trends:

  • Over is 4-0-2 in Clippers last 6 games as an underdog
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Clippers last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600
  • Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall
  • Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings


I was shocked to see that the Clippers have opened up as underdogs in this play-in matchup. What shocked me even more was to see the line go in the Wolves favour as it moved from -2.5 to -3.5 for a small time before moving back. The total is sitting at 230.5 and looks like it will stay there. So how can we attack this game to give us the best opportunity to win?


In this weeks blog I talk about how I think the Clippers are one of “teams to watch” as we head into the NBA playoffs. People often forget that they got to the Western Conference finals last year without Kawahi Leonard. I really like the cast around Paul George, they have good role players like Jackson, Batum, Morris and Kennard. They are the NBA’s 8th rated defence at 110.3 (most of which was without Paul George, Robert Covington and Norman Powell). 



Momentum is a real thing in sports and it is something I look for heavily when handicapping. The Clippers only recently got PG back and they have been playing good ball ever since. They are 6-4 in their last 10 including a 5 game win streak. The Wolves on the other hand had a great run in March/early April, they haven’t been as good as of late. They are 4-6 in their last 10 and aren’t closing games the same was as a month ago. 


It’s probably pretty obvious who I am leaning towards in this matchup. The Timberwolves have been a great story and I love their young core. The edge in this matchup however goes to the Clippers. Anything is possible with these kind of games. 


Despite all of this being said my free play is on the under. This is a playoff game and in the NBA playoffs games slow down. The total is posted at 230 meaning both teams need to score 115 points to reach this total. The Clippers have a great defence and the Timberwolves are young and you can expect them to be star struck in this matchup.


Last year was a good example of this. The Grizzlies defeated the Warriors 117-112, but the only for that high as the game went into overtime. The Lakers defeated the Warriors 103-100. 


Take the under in this matchup as time slows down and every possession matters. 


FREE PICK: Total under +230.5


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