We are already in week 13 of this NFL Season, and it doesn’t seem like anyone wants the MVP award? Usually this far in there is a heavy favourite for MVP, and maybe we would have one if Kyler Murray didn’t suffer some game missing injuries. So who am I backing for MVP? There is still huge value in the market, and we are looking to take full advantage.
Dave Covers Spreads, Free NFL Future Bet
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Before we can look at who I am backing at for MVP this season, let’s go down memory lane and look at what the last 3 NFL MVP’s stats were that led them to this award.
|
|
Aaron Rodgers (2021 MVP) |
Lamar Jackson (2020 MVP) |
Patrick Mahomes (2019 MVP) |
Tom Brady (2018 MVP) |
|
Comp/Att (%) |
372/526 (70.7%) |
242/376 (64.4%) |
319/484 (65.91%) |
375/570 (65.8%) |
|
Passing Yards |
4299 |
2757 |
4031 |
4355 |
|
Passing TD’s |
48 |
26 |
26 |
29 |
|
Interceptions |
5 |
9 |
5 |
11 |
|
Rushing Yards |
149 |
1005 |
218 |
35 |
|
Rushing TD’s |
3 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
|
Teams Record |
13-3 |
14-2 |
12-4 |
13-3 |
First, how crazy was Aaron Rodgers last year? Is there a reason no one seems to be talking about Rodgers for MVP this season? This is another classic example of how off-court shenanigans can affect an on-field award. Let’s take a step back and look at the frontrunners for MVP this season, their stats and see if anything stands out.
Photo By: The NFL
|
Player |
Odds |
|
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) |
+275 |
|
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) |
+400 |
|
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) |
+600 |
|
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) |
+800 |
|
Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) |
+1000 |
Before we compare players, we need to take make this list a little shorter. Let’s be honest, Josh Allen isn’t having his best year and is not winning MVP, let’s take him out. Second, I really do believe the Kyler has just missed too much time, plus his team didn’t “suffer” without him, they still played well and won. This never bodes well for your shot at MVP. That leaves us with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. Let’s compare this QB’s through week 12.
|
|
Aaron Rodgers (11 Games Played) |
Patrick Mahomes (11 Games Played) |
Tom Brady (11 Games Played) |
|
Comp/Att (%) |
247/373 (66.2%) |
294/449 (65.48%) |
309/457 (67.6%) |
|
Passing Yards |
2878 |
3200 |
3403 |
|
Passing TD’s |
23 |
25 |
30 |
|
Interceptions |
4 |
11 |
9 |
|
Rushing Yards |
76 |
238 |
53 |
|
Rushing TD’s |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
Teams Record |
9-3 |
7-4 |
8-3 |
Patrick Mahomes had a slower start to the season but has been on a tear in the last 4 games. If he continues this form and goes undefeated for the rest of the season, there is real value in Mahomes at +800. Like I talked about in my NBA MVP prediction (available on my website) narrative is a real thing with these awards. That is why I am not laying my money with Mahomes, everyone knows he is great, but the better stories are with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I truly believe the only reason that Rodgers is not the favourite for MVP is because of his off-field acts. I am referring to the fact he openly despised the Packers organisation as well as violating the leagues covid-19 vaccination protocols. If we ignore that, he is really having an incredible season. Take off this first game against the Saints, and the game Rodgers didn’t play, the Packers are 9-1. He is playing just as good as last year and can pick apart any defence, this is with the huge issues the Packers have faced with injuries, yet he is still finding a way to win. Tom Brady also has a good chance at MVP this season. He has the edge in stats, he has the narrative, and everyone always talks about him. So, media bias is a real thing!
My Best Bet: Bet Twice, Guaranteed Win?
My Free BEST BET for the 2022 NFL MVP, is two best bets. I am backing both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. At plus money, either way we profit. Best case scenario is if Rodgers wins, but even if Brady wins we wil still profit. At this point I really cannot see anyone else winning this award. I will release a new article in 3-4 weeks if I think Mahomes or anyone else is within a chance. Back the old guys to take care of MVP again, bet both, win either way.
FREE PICK: Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers for 2022 NFL MVP